How many of you are willing to give Betancourt a shot?

[Raw Biz]

I'm not saying I'm a Betancourt fan. If he wasn't already on our roster and I had a choice between him and others available, I would probably take just about everyone else. However, I think people are ignoring the fact that he is already on our roster and will be due money no matter what. We may have a little extra to spend but I don't think you want to spend that extra money (that you might want to use to add at the trading deadline) right away before the season starts.

I would like to bring in someone like a Renteria or Cabrera or even Punto but I don't think it's realistic that they would sign for cheap (1 yr, 1 mil). If they would, I'd be all for it. But I just think that people saying we should cut him loose now, eat his salary, and add more salary just for a marginally better player aren't being realistic. Remember that this is a business too and I don't think it's good business to basically throw away $4 million that you are tied to before you even try it out.

It basically comes down to this: Would I (and most people here) have liked the Greinke trade better if it didn't include Betancourt? Yes, then that $4 million could have went toward a free agent or a different trade (though I think we used most of our trade chips). The point is we are stuck with him and why not see where he's at after the first month or so of the season. Nobody's saying we can't make another move during the year.

[GAME05]

if anybody is an upgrade over Betancourt (which i don't necessarily agree with), then it shouldn't be much of a worry to enter the season with him because he could be replaced easily. Melvin and Roenicke can figure out if Betancourt is the worst thing to happen to baseball since Joe Morgan took to the microphone, but i wouldn't want to make such a final conclusion as to cut him before he even dons a Brewer uniform. it's booing the guy before he even gets an at-bat. i'm at least curious to see what he can do, and if that means cutting him after only a month, then so be it.

[endaround]

A month doesn't tell anyone anything. And after a month all the guys who don't have jobs now will have jobs. Punto could likely be had a 2 year/ $3m deal.

[trwi7]

endaround nailed it. I think it's pretty obvious Betancourt sucks, both on offense and defense. There are options out there now that won't cost a ton of money that we could get that won't be available when the season starts. So if the option is signing someone now or waiting for a player to inevitably suck before getting rid of him, I'd rather get rid of the sucky player now and sign someone better while they're still available.

 

Also, the Mariners are paying $1 million of his salary and the Royals are giving us $2 million. He makes $4 million this year. Couldn't we just put that $3 million towards this year when we release him and then put the $2 million buyout on our 2012 payroll?

[GAME05]

i think it's been said before, but if we really do only have a few million and one prospect to sell, we're being quick to assume that Betancourt will necessarily be the biggest weakness on the team. i agree that one month isn't really enough time to judge a player, but it's certainly enough time for a more sizable hole to emerge on the team. if we hit our absolute limit by replacing Betancourt now, i'd hate to see a larger hole emerge later (regardless) and not be able to fix it. maybe keeping that money/prospect safeguard available is more valuable to the team than replacing Betancourt right away.

[Paulus88]

So... we shouldn't fix the holes we have on our team now becasue there might be holes later?

 

To me shortstop is a high leverage position. You need, at the very least, someone to play defense. It doesn't make a lot of sense to spend assets on pitching and then skimp on defense at the most important (non-catcher) defensive position.

[JohnBriggs12]

The guy drove in 78 runs last year with 47 extra base hits. I'm having a hard time wrapping my brain around some of the comments on here. Someone said he's got no power and doesn't hit for contact? He struck out 64 times in 556 AB's last year. That's 1 K every 8.7 ABs. For his career he's struck out once ever 10.5 AB. Counsell's struck out once every 7.1 AB's for his career.

 

Someone explain to me how the value of a walk is the same with the 8th hitter and the pitcher batting behind you as it is toward the top of the order? It makes some sense to have an 8 hitter taking a walk when leading off as that sets up the pitcher to bunt him over, and that's why I'd hit Betancourt 7th.

 

I admit I haven't seen enough of his defense. But this isn't 1970, when a guy who struck out 5 guys per 9 innings was considered a strikeout pitcher. This Brewer pitching staff will strike out a ton of hitters. Most of the balls hit in play will be in the air. The need for infield defense just isn't nearly as strong as it once was.

 

Betancourt isn't a top SS. He's clearly a stopgap. But it just seems like people are needing to find something not to like about this team. I was as big a backer of Escobar as anyone. I think he'll be missed. But I'm not slitting my wrists or wringing my hands. I fully understand what Melvin is doing. Melvin needs to win now for his own security. If Betancourt is as bad as he's being portrayed to be, then Counsell will get more playing time. Perhaps Cruz or Farris (I completely agree that he should be given a chance at SS in AAA) will be better options or another deal will be made. But the SS on the market like Cabrera and Renteria are well past their prime. As for trading for another SS, the Brewers are essentially out of bullets that could be used without weakening the team somewhere else.

 

With this rotation, the division isn't going to be won or lost based in April and May based solely on the play or lack of it from Betancourt or the other favorite whipping boy Gomez anyway. Offensively, it's far more important for Fielder to look more like the hitter he was in 09 than in 10, and for Hart to come close to repeating his 2010, and Lucroy to definitively prove he's got a first string catcher's bat, than it is for the SS and CF to get on at a .320 clip instead of a .290 clip.

[Thurston Fluff]

Much more often than not it doesn't work out like this. The rare instance of Belly having a better season doesn't change the fact that it is much more likely Betancourt continues to Quevedo his way out of baseball.

 

I agree. I was more or less looking for reasons to think it might work and that was the one thing I could think of. If laziness is part of his problem then being in a contract year might be another.

[endaround]

Its nearly irresponsible not to replace Betancourt at this point. You can add an extra expected win at the cost of less than $2m? And the marginal value of the win right now is around $7-8m? Unless the team thinks Cruz can handle the position its really poor planning.

[kramnoj]

You can add an extra expected win at the cost of less than $2m?

 

It is certainly possible that Melvin may want to specifically do this. The Brewers could be waiting for the price to drop on Punto or another SS and be willing to sign them when they feel the price is right.

[TheRealMattKain]

JohnBriggs12 wrote:

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The guy drove in 78 runs last year with 47 extra base hits.

RBIs are a team statistic. Given enough opportunities, anyone can drive in 78 runs. Betancourt's OPS with RISP was .659 last year. That is bad. Put just about anyone else in the same position and they would have had more RBIs. This only proves that the Royals were foolish or desperate enough to send Betancourt to the plate far too many times (588 times to be precise).

 

 

JohnBriggs12 wrote:

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I'm having a hard time wrapping my brain around some of the comments on here. Someone said he's got no power and doesn't hit for contact? He struck out 64 times in 556 AB's last year. That's 1 K every 8.7 ABs. For his career he's struck out once ever 10.5 AB. Counsell's struck out once every 7.1 AB's for his career.

Why the obsession with strikeouts? Why not grounders to third or flyouts to left-center? The bottom line is Betancourt made an out 71.2% of the time in 2010. For his career Betancourt has made an out 70.4% of the time. Those numbers are bad, very bad. I do agree that he did show a little pop last year. I'm willing to accept that he'll hit more homers than Escobar in 2011. That's at least something.

 

 

JohnBriggs12 wrote:

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Someone explain to me how the value of a walk is the same with the 8th hitter and the pitcher batting behind you as it is toward the top of the order?

No one said that. People are arguing that a guy who makes tons and tons of outs is a bad thing and will hurt the team no matter *where* you bury him in the order. To a small degree you can mitigate the flood of outs that Betancourt will make by stashing him near the end of the order (fewer plate appearances). However, a better way to deal with this is to replace him with someone who is good (or even average) at baseball.

I'm a little confused. You make it sound as if rallies are never started or runs are never scored from the bottom of the order. They are. Games are in fact sometimes decided by the bottom of the order.

 

 

JohnBriggs12 wrote:

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I admit I haven't seen enough of his defense. But this isn't 1970, when a guy who struck out 5 guys per 9 innings was considered a strikeout pitcher. This Brewer pitching staff will strike out a ton of hitters. Most of the balls hit in play will be in the air. The need for infield defense just isn't nearly as strong as it once was.

 

True. Brewers’ pitchers should strike out a large number of batters. However, you're making it sound as if having a slow, un-athletic shortstop with no range will not hurt the team. It will. If Betancourt costs the Brewers 15-20 defensive runs over a replacement level shortstop, it will hurt the team. I don't see how this can be argued (unless you want to argue that Betancourt is a good defensive shortstop that will not cost the team runs on defense).

 

 

 

JohnBriggs12 wrote:

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If Betancourt is as bad as he's being portrayed to be, then Counsell will get more playing time.

 

Sadly, Counsell can only play so much at his age. I would imagine that he can provide around 300 PA - no more.

 

 

 

JohnBriggs12 wrote:

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With this rotation, the division isn't going to be won or lost based in April and May based solely on the play or lack of it from Betancourt or the other favorite whipping boy Gomez anyway.

 

I don't understand this kind of thinking. Wins are worth the same in April and May as they are in August and Spetember. So for some reason because we will have good pithing, losses in April and May will not count? I was not aware of this rule. Seriously, what if Betancourt and Gomez cost the team 2-3 wins over using some replacement player obtained in a trade, picked up via free agency, or promoted from the minor league system? Divisions are often determined by one or two games. That is the reality of baseball.

 

 

[Fear The Chorizo]

The reason the Brewers currently have Betancourt on their roster is because they had to in order to acquire Greinke...I'll live with it. Just because Betancourt's on the roster now doesn't mean he's the opening day starter at SS...the Brewers don't have much left to trade to acquire a SS, but I do see the Brewers bringing in another veteran SS (Renteria) on a 1-year deal/Spring Training invite and have an open competition for the starting job. The asking price for many of these veteran SS's is currently too high, but it will come down for those who want to play - there's really not many teams in search of a starting veteran middle infielder right now.

The Brewers are definitely in a win-now mode, and I'm confident that Mark A., Melvin, and the rest of Brewers managment can cope with eating the rest of Betancourt's $ after cutting him in Spring Training if necessary. The other scenario is maybe the Brewers are hoping for a team that will have a need for a middle infielder due to spring injuries trading for Betancourt.

I think the whole Betancourt dilemma will be settled well before opening day, and all this worrying about how he'll singlehandedly derail the 2011 season is nothing more than having little to nothing else to worry about before pitchers and catchers report.

If, however, Betancourt's the Brewers' Opening Day SS, count me in as one who'll be wielding a pitchfork and headed for Melvin's office!

[logan82]

I think the whole Betancourt dilemma will be settled well before opening day, and all this worrying about how he'll singlehandedly derail the 2011 season is nothing more than having little to nothing else to worry about before pitchers and catchers report.

 

Hyperbole. Nobody ever said Betancourt would derail the season. All anybody has ever said was that he is the obvious weak link and could be replaced to gain a win or two pretty easily and at this point a win or two dramatically improves our playoff chances. We should go over budget, within reason, to improve the SS position.

[bjkrautk]

True. Brewers’ pitchers should strike out a large number of batters. However, you're making it sound as if having a slow, un-athletic shortstop with no range will not hurt the team. It will. If Betancourt costs the Brewers 15-20 defensive runs over a replacement level shortstop, it will hurt the team. I don't see how this can be argued (unless you want to argue that Betancourt is a good defensive shortstop that will not cost the team runs on defense).

The one place where I take issue with a lot of this analysis is that a lot of people seem willing to only look at the defensive component of WAR. If Betancourt costs the Brewers 15-20 runs on defense, but his offense gives the Brewers an additional 15-20 runs on offense over a replacement level shortstop, that hurt is mitigated.

 

Betancourt is, based on appearances, a replacement-level shortstop (+ 0.6 last year, -0.5 WAR for 2011 based on fan projections at Fangraphs). Considering he's only had a negative WAR once in his career (2009), he's probably better than that, paticularly if the +7 change in Fielding (from '09 to '10) is indicative of the player making an effort to improve.

Would I like a player that's better? Absolutely. Is the team dead in the water if the Starting SS in 2011 is only able to perform as well as the starting SS in 2010? Not based on all the improvements around him. Getting good seasons out of the players already on the roster seems far more important to me than whether the Brewers bring in a 1.4 WAR player to replace Betancourt (Prince Fielder dropped 2.8 WAR from 09-10).

[rluzinski]

I don't agree with the premise of this thread. As end said, I month tells you very little, good or bad. If Fielder has a terrible April, I will barely change my expectations for him. If Betencourt has a great April, I will still think he is a very bad baseball player.

[RockCoCougars]

So is Betancourt a young Neifi Perez or what? Just asking, because I haven't seen this type of hatred from the statisticians about a guy since Neifi. Not even Juan Pierre received this scathing.

[rluzinski]

Perez apparently played good defense, so much of that hatred was unfair. He was just a horrible hitter. And scouts and fans in general also seem to think Betencourt is well below average as well, so not sure why you are focusing on the stat guys. It's not often that everyone agrees!

[RightFieldCoder]

Neither Neifi nor Pierre were starting for a Brewers team expected to contend for the postseason.

 

Betancourt reminds me of Estrada when we traded for him. Some good seemed to be overwhelmed by a lot of bad. Some people had faith in Estrada, some wanted him gone before he played. He made me look like an idiot (I was bemoaning him on opening day for his lack of taking a walk, and his first plate appearance at home was a walk). By the end of the year everyone had agreed that he was terrible and was happy to trade him for a bag of balls. I fear the same will happen with Betancourt.

[gregmag]

As I read this discussion, the most forceful arguments in favor of giving Betancourt a shot boil down to (a) refusing to believe evidence because . . . well, just because

 

There's a difference between believing evidence and deciding how to properly weigh it.

 

(b) admitting you're just being contrary

 

I personally haven't seen this, but maybe it happened. I have seen people try to play Devil's Advocate, in the attempt to understand Melvin's decision to acquire Betancourt.

 

© isolating every spinnably good number over the course of his career and ignoring everything else;

 

Some people may be ignoring everything else. I don't think that's pervasive. I think the answer to this is closer to the response provided to "a".

 

and/or (d) pretending he hasn't aged

 

This seems like a particularly odd statement, given that Betancourt is several years younger than a few of his experienced alternatives.

 

Projections are awesome for coming up with numbers for 1500+ players that will appear in the major leagues in 2011. When it comes to the very specific decision of who will play SS for the Brewers, just a simple projection and ignoring everything else would be poor management.

A poster (I can't recall who at this moment) earlier on argued that we should ignore defensive stats, and he didn't really provide a justification for the position (which, of course, doesn't mean he's wrong). That was the basis for my "just because" remark. John Briggs said in an earlier post that the general hostility against Betancourt, which he considered an overreaction, made him more inclined to defend Betancourt. That was the basis for my "admitting you're just being contrary" crack. As to spinning the numbers, I'm pretty sure you and I just disagree deeply and honestly about both the facts and how people are deploying them, so I'm going to leave it alone. The point about Betancourt's aging has to do with defense. As I read the numbers -- and I'm no certainly expert on defense, just a casual observer -- Betancourt appears to have lost substantial range after his first couple of years in the majors. For players to lose speed and/or defensive range in their late (sometimes even mid-) 20s isn't unusual. At least a couple of people have raised his better defensive performance earlier in his career as a reason to have some faith in him, and IMHO that argument mistakenly ignores the likelihood that aging accounts for the difference.

[gregmag]

Would I like a player that's better? Absolutely. Is the team dead in the water if the Starting SS in 2011 is only able to perform as well as the starting SS in 2010? Not based on all the improvements around him. Getting good seasons out of the players already on the roster seems far more important to me than whether the Brewers bring in a 1.4 WAR player to replace Betancourt (Prince Fielder dropped 2.8 WAR from 09-10).

This is absolutely right, as far as it goes, but I think it misses an essential point. Doug Melvin can't do anything about whether or not Fielder bounces back. Fielder is our first baseman, and he's going to do what he's going to do. Improving at shortstop, or at least making a concrete effort to do so, is within Melvin's power (assuming Attanasio hasn't locked the checkbook, which he may well have). The two factors are apples and oranges.

 

Also, as logan just pointed out, nobody is saying Betancourt makes the Brewers "dead in the water." I think what those of us who strongly disapprove of Betancourt are saying, for the most part, is: Here's a guy who appears likely to be quite bad; replacing him offers possibly the best and easiest opportunity we have to improve the team further; therefore, DM should do whatever he can to upgrade.

[RockCoCougars]

And scouts and fans in general also seem to think Betencourt is well below average as well, so not sure why you are focusing on the stat guys. It's not often that everyone agrees!

It sure seems that way, but I'm willing to at least watch the guy play for a semi-extended period of time before I will say he's terrible. Believe me, if he is terrible, I'll jump right on the bandwagon to dump him. Frankly, I don't think that anyone could be worse than Escobar was last season, but at the same time, two wrongs don't make a right. ... meaning I believe that a team can win a lot of games without getting any offense from SS to speak of, that said, it would be tough to win a pennant with a sieve at SS. I want to see Betancourt in the field with my own eyes before I make a determination that he's trash. If that's the case, hopefully a Cruz/Counsell combo can at least provide adequate defense with perhaps a veteran added late in the summer.

[Hate those Rodents]

And scouts and fans in general also seem to think Betencourt is well below average as well, so not sure why you are focusing on the stat guys. It's not often that everyone agrees!

I just find it odd that those that promote players through the minors, that offer MLB contracts, that fill out MLB lineups, and that complete MLB transactions see something in this player. I gotta say I'll rooting for him since everyone here hates him. But I'll preface that by saying I won't make stubborn and foolhardy posts in support of him.

 

[Ennder]

He made me look like an idiot (I was bemoaning him on opening day for his lack of taking a walk, and his first plate appearance at home was a walk). By the end of the year everyone had agreed that he was terrible and was happy to trade him for a bag of balls. I fear the same will happen with Betancourt.

 

He was actually hitting fine until he got injured and could barely make it to 1B the rest of the year. Betancourt is much worse than Estrada was~.

[RockCoCougars]

He made me look like an idiot (I was bemoaning him on opening day for his lack of taking a walk, and his first plate appearance at home was a walk). By the end of the year everyone had agreed that he was terrible and was happy to trade him for a bag of balls. I fear the same will happen with Betancourt.

 

He was actually hitting fine until he got injured and could barely make it to 1B the rest of the year. Betancourt is much worse than Estrada was~.

Despite his reputation as a lazy player, I'm willing to give Betancourt the benefit of the doubt here. Estrada was hands down the worst defensive catcher I can recall in Brewers history, he was also a clubhouse cancer with questionable work ethic and poor conditioning. Probably an average hitting catcher at best. There is no wonder that he burned through about 6 teams in 6 years, and was out of baseball altogether very shortly after his year in Milwaukee.

[Flood Pants]

This team can't afford to give Betancourt "the benefit of the doubt" for a month. The Brewers need every single win. I don't think anybody claims that Betancourt is bad enough to make the Brewers a losing team, but it's not exaggeration to believe that Betancourt could cost this team the season. Getting to the playoffs is really hard. When the Brewers made it a couple years ago, it was by one game. A month-long trial of Betancourt could mean the difference between, say, 89-wins and 90-wins. That's not a huge difference in winning percentage, but very potentially the difference between playoffs and no playoffs. So, it's very likely that Betancourt will cost this team at least one game that another shortstop wouldn't cost them. That's one game too many.

 

Since Melvin (rightfully) risked the future for a chance to win a championship this season, any move that increases this team's odds of winning any given game, if even slightly, is crucial.