Grady Sizemore

[KCBrewerfan34]

This just hit me like a thunderbolt of lightning. Per mlbtraderumors.com the Indians would love to trade Grady Sizemore. If he's healthy he is the kind of player that would be a big boost to the offense. He's signed thru this year and his option becomes a player option if traded but at $8 million I'm wondering if we could fit him into our salary cap?

 

 

How do I contact Melvin http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[Invader3K]

Well, he'd certainly be a boost over Gomez (assuming he'd play in CF). I have no idea what it would take to get him, though. My guess is that Cleveland is looking for prospect type players, which we don't really have to spare at this point.

 

He makes "only" $7.5 million this season, so you'd think there would be a way to fit him in if a deal could be struck.

[KCBrewerfan34]

Based on his injury history (last 2 years) I would think the price tag is LOW.

[Invader3K]

That's a good point. I knew he barely played last season (only 33 games), but in 2009 he only played in 106 games, which I hadn't realized. So his value should be somewhat low right now, I would suppose.

[Kelbysdaddy]

give them dickerson or gomez and one low level prospect.

[TooLiveBrew]

I don't think the price would be low. I think the Indians would still (rightfully) demand some good talent in return. Relative to any kind of reasonably projected level of production*, he's pretty cheap. If the Brewers could manage this deal, I'd love to see them go for it. I'm just not sure they have the ammo to bring him in. Sure, he's had injuries, but 2011 is still only his age-28 season.

 

 

* Both Bill James & the FanGraphs fan projections have him at a .810 OPS in '11

[And That]

You'd think the Indians would wait until his knee is 100% and he shows some of his old form before trading him. As they probably wouldn't get anyone to take on his full 2011 salary right now anyway (unless they received very little back), why not just wait until June-July?

 

In any case, I'm about 99% sure they wouldn't trade him for Gomez or Dickerson and minor league filler.

[TooLiveBrew]

In any case, I'm about 99% sure they wouldn't trade him for Gomez or Dickerson and minor league filler.

 

Agreed. Imo a good rule of thumb is that if you don't think the Brewers would make a certain trade, another MLB team wouldn't do it either.

[JohnBriggs12]

give them dickerson or gomez and one low level prospect.

He's worth more than that even after two "lost years". I think the Indians would want a young, close to major league ready arm in a deal for Sizemore in addition to Gomez.

[Invader3K]

Rivas/Gomez for Sizemore? Just a thought.

[KCBrewerfan34]

I would view Sizemore as a salary dump by Cleveland, they've done nothing but pay this guy for 2 years and has been rewarded with LONG stays on the disable list. The big question is is he healthy.

[TooLiveBrew]

In 2013, would you view trading Ryan Braun as a salary dump move if he'd been injured for large parts of '11 & '12?

[endaround]

If you don't believe he can make it until July yes. If Cleveland is trying to move Sizemore now its because they don't think he's ready now and will need time to get better anyway or that they don't trust him to stay healthy until June.

[ramssuperbowl99]

Grady Sizemore is going nowhere. He was one of the most valuable players in baseball and is still young. No way they part with him for someone like Rivas. It'd take a very, very good offer for them to even consider it.

[TooLiveBrew]

I didn't realize that Sizemore is only under contract through '12, so my Ryan Braun example from before isn't as accurate as I thought. But I still agree that the Indians aren't even considering moving Sizemore for the type of Brewers-friendly offers that have been suggested here so far.

[splitterpfj]

This seems like a terrible time to deal Sizemore. The Indians aren't going to get a big offer for him, because he's missed so much time - they'd be much better off letting him play, to re-establish his value.

 

If I were the Indians, I wouldn't take a lowball offer for Sizemore, and if I was trying to get him, I wouldn't give up a big package at this point.

[HiAndTight]

You'd think the Indians would wait until his knee is 100% and he shows some of his old form before trading him. As they probably wouldn't get anyone to take on his full 2011 salary right now anyway (unless they received very little back), why not just wait until June-July?

 

In any case, I'm about 99% sure they wouldn't trade him for Gomez or Dickerson and minor league filler.

I can't imagine the Indians would have any trouble finding teams willing to take on his salary. If he were a FA I'd have to imagine there would be a line of teams willing to sign him for his '11 salary. Sizemore was one of the most valuable players in the game, and the prospects of him returning to that value has more appeal to the Brewers than just about any other team given how weak we are in CF.

 

I think the Indians would want one top prospect in return for him.

[jjkoestler]

Would he be a type A free agent?

[HiAndTight]

In 2013, would you view trading Ryan Braun as a salary dump move if he'd been injured for large parts of '11 & '12?

Great analogy.

[And That]

I can't imagine the Indians would have any trouble finding teams willing to take on his salary.

He's not healthy. The list of teams willing to both take on a $10M CF who hasn't played a full season's worth of games over the last two years combined and give good value for him may not be non-existent, but it's really, really short.

 

If he proves he's healthy in the first part of the season, the Indians would have a much easier time getting good value while not eating any salary.

[TooLiveBrew]

I'm getting technical here... this is a tricky contract. His '11 salary is $7.5M, his '12 salary is $9M* (club option w/$500K buyout). The '12 option only increases to $10.5M if he wins a Gold Glove, Silver Slugger, makes the ASG, or "ranks high in MVP vote", whatever that's supposed to mean. However, he also has a clause in his contract that, if he's traded, his remaining salaries increase by 10% and he gets a $500K reassignment bonus. Additionally, if traded, the '12 option flips to a player option (team is off the hook for the buyout if Sizemore declines the option). Phew!

 

In short, if a team trades for Sizemore this season, his base salaries are $8.25M for '11, & $9.9M for '12 ($11.55M if his award clause kicks in). I'm assuming that $500K reassignment bonus would just be applied asap, whenever he was traded. Assuming the only realistic way a team would trade for Sizemore this season is if he's healthy & producing, the acquiring team might just be getting a rental. In that case, the Indians might not be able to ask that much for him. After looking at this in more detail, I hope Melvin & Co. keep Sizemore on the radar as the season progresses.

 

 

* His 2008 ASG appearance upped the '12 option from $8.5M

[RockCoCougars]

Let me preface this by saying that I feel that Sizemore is one of the most overrated players in recent memory. That being said, I think the comparisons between him and Ryan Braun are a little hyperbolic. I'm not really interested in him anyway since microfracture type injuries are pretty nasty.

[TooLiveBrew]

Agreed that microfracture injuries are brutal. But Grady Sizemore pre-injury was a far more valuable player than Ryan Braun, because Sizemore was a good defensive centerfielder. At this point, I'm not sure how well Sizemore will recover... but prior to the microfracture injury, the hyperbolic thing would be to suggest that Braun was a better player.

[jerichoholicninja]

Just because I'm on a bit of a stats binge lately...for comparison.

 

Sizemore

21yo 739 OPS

22yo 832 OPS

23yo 907 OPS

24yo 852 OPS

25yo 876 OPS

26yo 788 OPS

27yo 560 OPS

career 840 OPS

 

Braun

23yo 1004 OPS

24yo 888 OPS

25yo 937 OPS

26yo 866 OPS

career 918 OPS

 

At the same age

Sizemore vs Braun

23 907 vs 1004

24 852 vs 888

25 876 vs 937

26 788 vs 866

 

I think they are vary comparable. Braun would get the edge in offense but with Grady's defense I think they would come out about even.

[logan82]

Defense and position make a big difference. Even with a bad year Sizemore was 22 WAR over that time while Braun was 16.5 WAR. At his peak so far Braun has had a 4.9 WAR. Sizemore a 7.3 WAR.