SI says Brewers have had #1 offseason

[ilovebeer]

as winter season, he has St louis at #10 and Pittsburgh #11. One thing he said that we gutted the farm system, i don't think we did.

[trwi7]

One thing he said that we gutted the farm system, i don't think we did.

I don't know how anyone can say we didn't. If we just go by the Power 50 we gave up our 1, 2, 3, 5 prospects plus a young shortstop who was ranked in the top 15 in baseball just a year ago. That can only be described as gutting the farm system.

 

[jjkoestler]

as winter season, he has St louis at #10 and Pittsburgh #11. One thing he said that we gutted the farm system, i don't think we did.

 

 

The Brewers are number one as winter season? I'm not sure what this means.

[Patrick425]

as winter season, he has St louis at #10 and Pittsburgh #11. One thing he said that we gutted the farm system, i don't think we did.

 

The Brewers are number one as winter season? I'm not sure what this means.

Yeah, I was a bit confused by this as well. And who is "he"? Can you provide a link?

 

Edit: Ok, I think this is what ilovebeer was referring to: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/jon_heyman/12/29/winter.winners/index.html

[TCSM]

There are two different writers that talk about the Brewers. They pretty much break it down the same way.

 

Cliff Corcoran

 

Jon Heyman

[DannoMac21]

Also here...

 

http://sportsillustrated....1.predictions/index.html

 

2011 predictions...Joe Sheehan says...

 

9. Parity reigns. Of the eight teams to make the 2010 postseason, just two -- the Yankees and Phillies -- will return in 2011, as the Red Sox, White Sox, A's, Brewers, Rockies and Dodgers create a near-complete turnover of baseball's Elite Eight. Once again, more than half the game's teams are buyers or reported buyers at the trade deadline, and about that many head into September a hot streak from a playoff spot.

[jjkoestler]

Thanks for the clarification. Not to get too far off topic, but why do writers insist on giving high grades to the Sox and Phillies? Of course they had a good off season. They have tons of money to spend.

[RockCoCougars]

I agree that the Brewers have had the best off-season of any team in baseball. As for all the 'experts' talk about the Brewers 'gutting' the farm system, that's not a major issue to me for two reasons. First, the goal is to win games in the National League, not the PCL or the Midwest League- I would rather stockpile Brewer wins than stockpile prospects. Secondly, in my view, the Brewers have been 'gutting their system' over the past 6-7 years by bringing guys to the bigs. Lots of these guys have turned into contributors at the big league level.... isn't that the goal? These things are cyclical, you would expect teams that have had multiple losing systems or low payrolls to have better minor league systems, due to high draft picks, picks awarded from free agent defections, etc. Even high payroll teams may have a lot of talent in the minors because there are guys in the high minors blocked by the big money guys at the major league level. Really the only guys that the Brewers moved that can be defined as prospects were Lawrie, Odorizzi and Jeffress. If these guys were moved for rental players, I may be more worried, but both Marcum and Greinke will be here for two seasons at the least. I would guess that out of the three prospects moved, Lawrie and Jeffress would both be at the major league level by the end of those two years anyway.

[DannoMac21]

Would much rather have a stacked MLB roster than a stacked farm system.

[Principessa21]

Thanks for the clarification. Not to get too far off topic, but why do writers insist on giving high grades to the Sox and Phillies? Of course they had a good off season. They have tons of money to spend.

Because a lot of teams have money but haven't done much to improve this offseason?

I lik seeing the Brewers ranked high but it is the offseason. Didn't the Mariners top these lists last year? I would say that I'm not going to get overly excited yet, but to be fair after the Grienke signing it's too late for that. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

[JohnBriggs12]

as winter season, he has St louis at #10 and Pittsburgh #11. One thing he said that we gutted the farm system, i don't think we did.

 

The Brewers are number one as winter season? I'm not sure what this means.

Not so much specifically the farm system as Escobar and Cain were already major leaguers and Jeffress could well have had a role this year, but they certainly surrendered a lot of young talent.

 

[GAME05]

i'll only care when SI says that we had the #1 postseason.

 

rankings like this remind me of every NFL draft, when the team that is awarded "best draft" is merely the team that trades up to grab an extra first-rounder.

[CheezWizHed]

Is there a banner we can raise at MP to commemorate winning the offseason?

[sargennm]

Is there a banner we can raise at MP to commemorate winning the offseason?

It doesn't count unless its a division championship banner.

[rluzinski]

Would much rather have a stacked MLB roster than a stacked farm system.

I would too but:

1. A weak farm system can take many years to restock. A stocked MLB roster can be largely gone in two.

2. The Brewers aren't "stacked" at the MLB level. I think they are a good team and certainly a playoff contender but we aren't looking at a team that it projected to win 95 games are anything.

For the record, I liked the off season moves. I think Melvin did a great job maximizing the talent he could trade for with what he gave up but there is most certainly a downside as well. It's easy to dismiss that downside right now but I suspect it won't be as easy in three years.

 

[HiAndTight]

i'll only care when SI says that we had the #1 postseason.

 

rankings like this remind me of every NFL draft, when the team that is awarded "best draft" is merely the team that trades up to grab an extra first-rounder.

Except with the NFL draft you're simply guessing who will be successful. Here you're getting legit MLB players, 3 of them, all pitchers, all having a lot of past success.

[Thurston Fluff]

1. A weak farm system can take many years to restock. A stocked MLB roster can be largely gone in two.

 

We are bare at the top but the farm is far from barren. This is not the same as when Taylor got here and there were no players in the entire system. This is more or less a system who still has prospects. It's just they will start the season in AA or lower. Two years from now some of them will be major league ready.

[logan82]

Most have upside of below average MLB players. If a couple guys have good years things could change but as of right now we have virtually no impact talent in the minors. A couple good drafts could change things pretty quickly but anybody drafted in 2011 is unlikely to be ready before 2013 at the very earliest. That is the Braun route so 2014-2015 is more likely. That leaves us with a couple lean years in 2013-2014. Possibly 2012. A lot depends on some extensions of current players. I think Fielder is gone but Weeks, Marcum and Greinke(remote possibility) could possibly be extended. That would lessen our down years a bit.

[CheezWizHed]

But wouldn't any combination of Fielder, Weeks, Marcum, and/or Greinke leaving restock the system via draft pick compensation? Up to 8 extra first round picks in the next two year (added with two or three this next draft) would change our system around really quickly....

 

We might still have a few down years while those make the majors, but I'd prefer having a year or two at contending and a couple down years to having several years of ho-hum .500 level teams...

[monty57]

One thing this offseason taught me is that there are far too many variables flying around to have any reasonable clue as to where the team will be in two years. I went into this offseason figuring Fielder would be gone, this year's team would be so-so, with hopes of the playoffs in a year or two. I was upset that Fielder wasn't traded last season, because I couldn't really see a way that we'd get a good enough pitching staff to compete this year. Now we have people talking about the Brewers in the World Series in 2011.

 

Using the economic principal of ceteris paribus (all else remaining equal), then yes, we will likely have two good years and then a down period. If I had to bet, all else will not remain equal and we are not going to field a team of AAAA players in 2013 waiting for some draft picks to develop... that's just not the Melvin/Attanasio m.o.

[Warning Track Power]

Using the economic principal of ceteris paribus (all else remaining equal), then yes, we will likely have two good years and then a down period. If I had to bet, all else will not remain equal and we are not going to field a team of AAAA players in 2013 waiting for some draft picks to develop... that's just not the Melvin/Attanasio m.o.

This is the most important statement in this entire thread.

 

Yes we may have a lean year or two, but I believe in Attanasio and I truly believe he feels a sense of responsibility to the state of Wisconsin and more specifically the city of Milwaukee to make the Brewers competitive every year. We may not be World Series competitors in 2013 or 2014, but as long as Attanasio is in Milwaukee I believe the definition of our lean years will be 75-80 wins which I can live with if 2011 and 2012 are playoff seasons.

 

 

[rluzinski]

If I had to bet, all else will not remain equal and we are not going to field a team of AAAA players in 2013 waiting for some draft picks to develop... that's just not the Melvin/Attanasio m.o.

 

 

The Brewers are not destined to bad in 2013 but there is no escaping the fact that Melvin has weakened the future teams for the now. Melvin gained perhaps 7 wins for 2011 by trading away prospects that project to be worth maybe 7 wins in the seasons to come. It is what it is.

Now, one of the things I like about the trades was that Melvin will still have the opportunity to shift some of that talent back to the future if things don't go well. If the the Brewers find themselves 10 games out in late June, they could still cash in Fielder. If 2011 isn't going well, they could trade their new starting pitchers. It's like going "all in" but still being able to get some of your money back if you don't like your next card.

[logan82]

rluzinski wrote:

Now, one of the things I like about the trades was that Melvin will still have the opportunity to shift some of that talent back to the future if things don't go well. If the the Brewers find themselves 10 games out in late June, they could still cash in Fielder. If 2011 isn't going well, they could trade their new starting pitchers. It's like going "all in" but still being able to get some of your money back if you don't like your next card.

The only way we would be that many games back is if we have a few injuries. I think the most likely scenario in 2012(not 2011 as previously posted) is we are a mid 80's win team with little chance to make the playoffs but to good to be trading guys away.

 

 

[Warning Track Power]

rluzinski wrote:

Now, one of the things I like about the trades was that Melvin will still have the opportunity to shift some of that talent back to the future if things don't go well. If the the Brewers find themselves 10 games out in late June, they could still cash in Fielder. If 2011 isn't going well, they could trade their new starting pitchers. It's like going "all in" but still being able to get some of your money back if you don't like your next card.

The only way we would be that many games back is if we have a few injuries. I think the most likely scenario in 2011 is we are a mid 80 win team with little chance to make the playoffs but to good to be trading guys away.

 

Really? As currently constituted you think we have "little chance to make the playoffs"? I think at worst we are co-favorites for the division right now with the Reds. At worst.

 

 

[logan82]

[quote author=Warning Track Power wrote:

[/b]Really? As currently constituted you think we have "little chance to make the playoffs"? I think at worst we are co-favorites for the division right now with the Reds. At worst.

Oops, that should be 2012. I dont think we are favorites in our division. That still has to go to the Reds. They are young and could possibly get better with the same players. Of course all their players might have had their career year last year. We were really far behind the Reds last year and we really only added 2 players. 2 very good players replacing really bad players but still only 2 players.