Jim Callis: Brewers have the worst minor league system in baseball

[igor67]

I like Gindl a ton, but I also get the limited ceiling from a scouting stand point. I can't really think of a good comparison for him as an OF. If he had the speed to play CF, was say 4 inches taller, or played middle infield he'd be an easy top 100 prospect just based on his success and age.

[ramssuperbowl99]

Ramssuperbowl, Gindl has a .856 OPS as a 22 year old in AAA and the only position he could platoon at is CF? I know he's short and might not have all plus tools, but I don't buy it. How do you have such definite answers, like " no, Ginl won't be a platoon starter"?

Won't is strong, "shouldn't" is what I should have said. Maybe a terrible team would start him, but if the Brewers start Caleb Gindl full time in an OF corner, we have a serious, serious problem.

He's got no real remaining power projection, his average arm is going to kill his value in RF, he doesn't have the speed for CF, and he's a good bet to strikeout 20% in the big leagues, which limits his value as a slap, contact hitter kind of guy. Not a good combo.

 

[TooLiveBrew]

I've used this comp. before, & with the usual caveat that it's highly unlikely for Gindl to wind up this good: Brian Giles. Builds are similar, MiLB stats are similar. It's not realistic to say Gindl = Giles 2.0, but Giles is one instance that shows the shorter, stockier build doesn't necessarily mean 4th OF. I understand why people/scouts assume Gindl won't turn out to be more than a 4th OF type, but his offensive prowess at such a young age definitely leaves me room to believe.

[yoshii8]

Ramssuperbowl, Gindl has a .856 OPS as a 22 year old in AAA and the only position he could platoon at is CF? I know he's short and might not have all plus tools, but I don't buy it. How do you have such definite answers, like " no, Ginl won't be a platoon starter"?

Won't is strong, "shouldn't" is what I should have said. Maybe a terrible team would start him, but if the Brewers start Caleb Gindl full time in an OF corner, we have a serious, serious problem.

He's got no real remaining power projection, his average arm is going to kill his value in RF, he doesn't have the speed for CF, and he's a good bet to strikeout 20% in the big leagues, which limits his value as a slap, contact hitter kind of guy. Not a good combo.

 

 

Once again he's 22 years old, and has improved his slugging and OBP by a decent margin from last year to this year. So why shouldn't he continue to improve? I've also heard that he has an above average arm, is that not true? If he would've stopped hitting when he got to AA I would buy the "he's too short" argument, but he seems to be doing pretty well at each level, especially for his age. I could definitely see him becoming an .800 + OPS guy in right field w/ decent defense.

[trwi7]

I have a quick question...

 

When do the Sept call ups happen and hpw many players can go?

 

September 1st and whoever is on the 40 man roster.

[pogokat]

I think the issue with Gindl is less his stature and more his lack of corner outfield power...he should hit 15-20 hr's a year in the majors (maybe more, I hope), or at least thats how most scouting reports see him...so, you know, Jonathan Lucroy, but in RF...which is kind of why people don't really see him as a starter...

 

I disagree with lots of you guys about Mike Fiers here...it's guys like Mike and Santo Manzanillo that we undervalue as prospects...they are the kind of guys that have multi year major league careers...while guys like D'Vontry Richardson flame out in AA...

 

The problem with our system is not the lack of productive contributors, it's the lack of high ceiling guys...there's almost no one in the minors who looks like he could potentially be an mlb all-star...which is drastically different than when we had Fielder, Braun, Hardy, Hart, Weeks, or Gallardo who have made all-star teams, or Ax and Lucroy who should make all-star teams...

[docduany]

I just wanted to side with Yoshi on the notion that Gindl has at least a slightly above average arm. I don't know that we're talking Roberto Clemente, but I seem to remember that Gindl can hold his own. I remember watching a spring training two years ago against the Cubs and Gindl did show off an impressive arm that day.

[trwi7]

I think the issue with Gindl is less his stature and more his lack of corner outfield power...he should hit 15-20 hr's a year in the majors (maybe more, I hope), or at least thats how most scouting reports see him...so, you know, Jonathan Lucroy, but in RF...which is kind of why people don't really see him as a starter...

Lucroy as a 22 year old was in A and A+ and hit a combined .301/.377/.495/.872. Gindl as a 22 year old is in AAA and is hitting .300/.386/.470/.856

[And That]

Fiers signed 6/14/09 as a 24 year old. The Brewers get 4 full years to evaluate him before he becomes eligible for the Rule 5 draft. Fiers won't be Rule 5 eligible until after the '13 season.

[dadofandrew]

Hart's age, level, and production almost mirror Gindl's. I have no concern how tall Caleb is, and am not sure why anyone would, except he may break down a bit quicker at the end of his career.

[captkirk16]

Rams, haven't seen you on the board much but your comment about Gindl's arm is comical. The only thing you got right is he's 5'9". You should probably know that he was actually scouted out of high school as a pitcher. Made a living at 92 and hit 95. Yoshi was referring to a play in spring where he caught a ball at the fence in right field and threw out a giant tagging from third. As far as Green, he's not Brooks Robinson, but he's raking like you read about. Both have great attitudes and are team players, chemistry guys. So if you don't think they deserve a shot, who does?

[pogokat]

I think the issue with Gindl is less his stature and more his lack of corner outfield power...he should hit 15-20 hr's a year in the majors (maybe more, I hope), or at least thats how most scouting reports see him...so, you know, Jonathan Lucroy, but in RF...which is kind of why people don't really see him as a starter...

Lucroy as a 22 year old was in A and A+ and hit a combined .301/.377/.495/.872. Gindl as a 22 year old is in AAA and is hitting .300/.386/.470/.856

True, but Luc catches and showed substantially more power...i will buy the age thing for a slight difference, but not enough of one for me to believe Gindl will suddenly develop the ability to slug for .500 in the majors...especially since I'm much more impressed by Luc's Brevard numbers than anything going on in Nashville this season...He gets on base more than Corey Hart, but i doubt he becomes the kind of hitter hart has in the majors...The truth is, he just doesn't project very well...and the lack of power spread out over his career says he's going to be a .750 to .800 corner outfielder...which is good, but not a difference maker

[sveumrules]

Something to keep in mind with the downward trending of the overall run environment in MLB you don't have to be a "30 hr guy" to have value, even in RF. It's been pointed out with the recent Frenchy extension that he has gone from a below average hitter to an above average one over the last few seasons simply by remaining constant.

[captkirk16]

Great point, just looked up rf on MLB.com. There is only 24 players at 10 hr or better as of today. Only 13 3b over 10. 30 hr guys today, is like 50 hr 20 years ago. Ironically enough, there is 24 1b over 10 as well. There is only 136 players in all of MLB that are at 10 hr or better.

[ramssuperbowl99]

Rams, haven't seen you on the board much but your comment about Gindl's arm is comical. The only thing you got right is he's 5'9". You should probably know that he was actually scouted out of high school as a pitcher. Made a living at 92 and hit 95. Yoshi was referring to a play in spring where he caught a ball at the fence in right field and threw out a giant tagging from third. As far as Green, he's not Brooks Robinson, but he's raking like you read about. Both have great attitudes and are team players, chemistry guys. So if you don't think they deserve a shot, who does?

When did I say they don't deserve to be on a major league roster? I think they are both MLB players, and would be roster upgrades right now (Green > Wilson, Gindl > Kotsay). I just don't think either has the tools to be an above average player.

And the reason I don't go on this board that much is precisely this - a substantial group of people on here are really homer on Brewers' prospects. I'm as big a Brewer fan as anyone, but when people on here are talking about Fiers, Rivas and Austin Ross as guys who could be significant big league contributers, I tend to log off.

 

[CheezWizHed]

but when people on here are talking about Fiers, Rivas and Austin Ross as guys who could be significant big league contributers, I tend to log off.

 

I realize Fiers doesn't light up the radar gun, but I don't know how you can look at what he has accomplished at AA and AAA and not see how he could be a decent 4-5 SP or at worst, a BP guy. There are plenty of guys in the MLB that continue to defy thier scouting reports.

 

Rivas seems to have a longer shot for that same ceiling. Ross a much longer road to hoe.

[jjfanec]

but when people on here are talking about Fiers, Rivas and Austin Ross as guys who could be significant big league contributers, I tend to log off.

 

I realize Fiers doesn't light up the radar gun, but I don't know how you can look at what he has accomplished at AA and AAA and not see how he could be a decent 4-5 SP or at worst, a BP guy. There are plenty of guys in the MLB that continue to defy thier scouting reports.

 

Rivas seems to have a longer shot for that same ceiling. Ross a much longer road to hoe.

I agree. Fiers does not seem to fit that list. Rivas probably projected at best as a number 5 pitcher and not a great number 5 at that. Ross looked great for a couple months but I dont think anyone penciled him in as starter in a two years. He was old for his league but he dominated in low A. People wanted to see what he would do in Brevard and he has disappointed. Friers has succeeded at the higher levels in ways Rivas has not. His stuff may not be amazing but there have been plenty of MLB pitchers without amazing stuff who have had significant impacts as number 4 or 5 starters. IF Friers could become a decent 5th starter his low-cost alone would make him a huge help to the team.

[SoCalBrewfan]

I don't really feel like engaging in mud-slinging, but I think there's two things you can mean when you talk about prospects...the narrow definition of potential future stars or a very broad definition of anyone who could fill a role on a major league roster. Perhaps it goes without saying, but the prospect watchers like BA tend to get most jazzed by players who look like they could be above average major leaguers and all-stars, and that's what distinguishes top systems from weak ones. It's not all that hard to find a player to fill, say, the Kameron Loe or Josh Wilson role. Even if you don't grow your own, these complementary players are typically not that expensive if your GM is on the ball. It's very hard to find a good starting pitcher like our top four, or an all-star middle infielder like Weeks, and if you don't have one they don't come cheaply. (As recent history illustrates...) So by far the greatest value comes from players that could be in the latter category.

 

In some sense a large fraction of minor leaguers could be considered prospects, but the majority of them are low grade prospects (Sickels uses A, B, C grades, and has way more Cs than Bs, with very few As). Even if you argue that we have a lot of Cs, that doesn't make a system even mediocre because most teams can say the same. The very best prospects are disproportionately valuable, and the BA rankings reflect that. Most systems have guys who are at least decent bets to fill complementary roles like Loe or Wilson, and the Brewers are no exception, with a bucket of potential fourth outfielders or fifth starters. What has been in question, and rightly so, is whether there was anyone at all in the system who would be as valuable as Hart or Lucroy, or even Carlos Gomez. Given that Green and Schafer were still recovering from injuries, Davis and Gennett were in A ball, and Gindl has always been questioned for his stature and tweener status, there wasn't a single position player you could consider a sure thing to get more than a cup of coffee much less become a major league regular. Pitching was a bit stronger, but Peralta was barely out of A ball, Scarpetta lacked command, Thornburg was just drafted, etc. A guy like Fiers, or Gindl, is going to be questioned every step up the ladder until they prove they're something special, and history suggests that most of the guys like them don't make it. (Much as I root for both of them and like their chances.)

 

Many of our guys have taken nice steps forward this year, but the number of grade B or better prospects, guys who are good bets to be major league regulars, is still very small. Some of the few that were relatively highly ranked (Rogers, Rivas, KeDavis) last offseason have slipped or stalled, and Gennett and Scarpetta still have obvious question marks. We added some nice draft choices, but most teams did as well. I don't think you can say definitively that it's the worst system in baseball, but it's hard to argue that it's not among the very worst.

 

Even weak systems can provide pieces to teams, by the way. The Astros, A's, White Sox, and Marlins were the rest of the bottom five in BA's list this past offseason. They all delivered talent to the parent team this year, in some cases pretty valuable pieces. The Astros I thought were a terribly weak system, but from that system they are playing Martinez and sometimes Bogusevic in the OF now, Altuve and Paredes in the IF, have received decent innings from Melancon and Rodriguez, have Lyles in the rotation. They added a bunch of guys in trades, and will move up a bit despite graduating a number of players. The A's have an awful system but delivered Jemile Weeks and (briefly) Tyson Ross and Faustino delos Santos...they still have Grant Green and Michael Choice, but will be in the conversation for worst system. The White Sox, also awful, are using their top two prospects, starting Morel at third (that's not so great thus far) and have Sale as a valuable lefty in the pen (wish we had him). They might be last next year, but they still have Reed, Viciedo, and Flowers as major-league-ready guys who look pretty good. Florida's system provided a fourth OF type (Bryan Peterson) and some decent pitching depth (Hand, Dunn, with Ceda possibly playing more of a role), with only Hand being one of their top ten preseason. Still a pretty weak system.

 

In comparison, this year the Brewers have gotten almost zero from the farm system (McClendon?), except through trades (McClendon again?). Fortunately the big league roster was such that we didn't need a lot (though there have been some obvious holes), and we were willing and able to make trades to add pieces we didn't have in the system...Melvin deserves a bunch of credit as we seem to have turned grade C or (at most) low B guys into Morgan, Hairston, and K-Rod. (Cutter Dykstra finally pays off!)

 

So we know we didn't and still don't have top-tier talent (still at most one top 50 guy), and the evidence suggests that we didn't have significantly more major-league-ready depth than the other bottom-dwelling systems. So on what basis could we argue that the system was better than Callis said before the season? And if we do manage to pull all the way up into the mid 20s this offseason, as I suspect we will, some will be because of Peralta and Thornburg moving up and Green being healthy, and the addition of pitching in the draft, but some will be because we didn't graduate anyone to the bigs and the other low-ranked systems did...

[SoCalBrewfan]

Gosh, that's a wall of text.

tl;dr version: If not the very worst, we have certainly been in the bottom few, and a close comparison to the bottom few doesn't make us look appreciably better. Still no As, very few Bs, and Cs don't matter in the rankings because everybody has them.

[ramssuperbowl99]

Absolutely outstanding post SoCalBrewfan, and right on the money.

I'll go as far to say that the Brewers minor league system, with the exception of the SS position, matches up quite well with their big league club. We have a nice number of young pitchers, one of whom is almost MLB ready and another 3 who could be ready within a little more than a year. That fills rotation holes. We also have at least one reliever with big time stuff (Manzanillo) and another few who could be successful, which should help us deal with the loss of Hawkins, Saito and K-Rod. Most of our position players are under contract, with the exception of SS/3B/1B, and Gamel/Green fill two of those holes (depending on whether McGehee is a long term option, in which case one of them becomes a bench or platoon player). Then we have guys like Schafer, Gindl, etc. who would be cost controlled bench players and could play multiple OF spots. I'd certainly take them over Mark Kotsay.

Saying the Brewers have a bad system and not many impact players isn't that big a deal, really. We still have many of our home grown players, and now have prospects who can come up and be successful role players for them.

[Never Outhustled]

I'm not sure what people are basing the accusations of Gindl's limited power potential. He has filled out bigtime over the last year. He is now a very powerful dude. Watch his homers and tell me lacks power. He hits tape measure shots, and has awesome raw power. His HR totals will soar over the next 2 years. I continue to think he is our top position player prospect. He is similar to a better conditioned Matt Stairs, who has had an extremely underrated MLB career, with 9 seasons with an OPS of 818 or higher. That's awesome for a player I'm guessing wasn't a steriod abuser.

[YoungGeezy]

To me, I don't care what BA or anyone else ranks our system. Honestly it doesn't matter. There are plenty of players who never get the big time attention in the minors and end up having outstanding careers. There are plenty of can't miss, next big thing top prospects who really amount to nothing...at all. Gindl is what, 22? Hard to say his ceiling is a #4 OF when he is the same age as many of our prospects in Helena, Wisconsin, BC, and Hunsville. You draft a 22 year old you expect them to continue to grow as a prospect and player. That expectation doesn't go away just because the 22/23 year old is AAA already. The guy is solid as a rock. Power potential usually doesn't max out until around 28-30. That doesn't change because of his height.

[igor67]

This is a lot of fun, seems like it's been awhile since we had some really compelling prospect discussions. I think it is safe to say that most everyone would agree that assuming Prince ends up elsewhere Green and Gamel both deserve at worst significant platoon/ starter time next year. That's kind of the easy part. What do you think is the most sensible plan for the following:

Schafer

Moldanado

Gindl

 

I think based on limited roster space and their relatively short stints at AAA you put both Martin and Schafer back in AAA to start the year, and they help cover a nice chunk of the roster in case of injuries. Based in large part on the fact that Gindl has seemingly managed to handle every promotion without big slumps, I think he makes sense as a bench candidate. Based on the success with appropriate roles I have to imagine that Melvin will continue the Gomez/ Plush platoon next year and that eats up OF spots. I think tactically one could make a good argument for Martin's skill set at back-up catcher over George (particularly if the rest of the bench gets filled by some guys who can hit). My two concerns are that Martin still hasn't seen a lot of AAA ABs and he might seriously regress with a big drop in playing time, and catchers tend to get hurt and it's a lot cleaner roster management to bring Martin up then rather than hope Kottaras will accept assignment to Nashville.

[dadofandrew]

Gindl will only be 23, and should play every day somewhere. Schafer should as well, due to his limited AB's. Maldonado does not project as an everyday catcher, so if he's a backup, no problem.

[chickinbrickin]

I could care less about Gindl's "lack" of tools. Bottom line is all the kid has done is produce his entire career, and is having one of his best seasons as a 23 year old in AAA. There is plenty to be excited about with a kid like him.