Jim Callis: Brewers have the worst minor league system in baseball

[HiAndTight]

Klaw ranked Wily Peralta among his Honorable Mentions in Mid-Season top 50. He also had this to say about Peralta in his latest chat. Looks like Klaw agrees with the Power 50 that Peralta is the Brewers best prospect.

 

Tito (Boston)

 

What has Wily Peralta done to go from outside the Top 100 to honorable mention for the Top 50? His numbers from this year seem relatively pedestrian

Klaw

(2:03 PM)

 

Heard he was hitting 98 repeatedly in the matchup against Eovaldi last week - and he's getting groundballs, too.

This is why I think you'll see Peralta up this year working out of the pen...

[hyerbro1]

Hyer7

As a Brewer fan I was pumped to see a Brewer in the Honorable Mention category. That was a pleasant surprise.

Did you put him there to appease Brewers fans who want to see a Brewer on the list or is Peralta a legit top 60 talent? The K rate has certainly rebounded. Can he stay in the rotation or is he destined for the pen?

K_Law

I didn't appease Cubs or White Sox fans in that way. Legit top 100 talent, gets groundballs, would like to see him miss a few more bats, also a chance he ends up in the pen but I think he can start.



I like Klaw more after this answer. He affirms that the Brewers have a legit prospect and puts down the Cubs in the same answer.

[gregmag]

Do we still have the worst system in baseball, even if we don't count our draft picks? Because if we do, how is it that:

 

(a) our mlb team has the fourth-best record in all of baseball in mid-August, and

 

(b) our AAA team has at least seven prospects who realistically could play significant roles on next year's team:

 

Green

Gindl

Peralta

Schafer

Fiers

De la Cruz (I know he's up now, but only technically)

Maldonado?

 

I'm not counting Gamel because he's not a rookie and because his opportunity is the only one that figures to come at the expense of a player we wish we could keep. All of these other guys could -- not necessarily will, but could -- fit in as improvements to what is already a very good Brewers team.

[dadofandrew]

McClendon is likely headed to the Mets and doesn't have much ceiling, but is a decent middle relief guy, also at AAA.

 

And I have no reason not to count Gamel, he's in the system.

 

I said it then, and I'll say it again, it's not a top five or ten system, but anyone who called it the worst is showing ignorance, bias, and not a whole lot of research.

[kramnoj]

The worst system has nothing to do with the current record of the major league team.

 

DLC is 27. He's not a prospect.

 

Maldonado has an OPS of .643 in the minors in his career, he's not a prospect.

 

Fiers is 26 and didn't get to AA until last year. He could be a part of next years team, but he's not a prospect.

 

The other players could be good major league players or useful role players, but they don't have the prospect status that BA likes.

 

I don't know that BA's rankings are all that important when it comes to the future of this team. I would guess that BA's rankings reflect, rather than inform, a prospect's status.

[yoshii8]

Fiers is 26 and didn't get to AA until last year. He could be a part of next years team, but he's not a prospect.

Last year was his first full minor league season, so you could say he got to AA in his first full minor league system and it sounds much better.

 

He has a 2.26 ERA in 100 innings between AA and AAA, w/ a 106/31 k/bb ratio and a 1.03 whip this season. I'd say its a bit to early to say hes not a prospect.

[kramnoj]

I'd say its a bit to early to say hes not a prospect.

 

What's your definition of prospect?

 

Fiers could absolutely have a future with the Brewers and I root for that to happen, but he's not a prospect in the way that prospect mavens use the term.

[And That]

Fiers could absolutely have a future with the Brewers and I root for that to happen, but he's not a prospect in the way that prospect mavens use the term.

May I have a definition of the way prospect mavens use the term? I didn't know there was an exact definition.

 

I said it then, and I'll say it again, it's not a top five or ten

system, but anyone who called it the worst is showing ignorance, bias,

and not a whole lot of research.

Baseball America and Kevin Goldstein are such casuals. They're so ignorant! Right?

[Bernman23]

I'd say its a bit to early to say hes not a prospect.

 

What's your definition of prospect?

 

Fiers could absolutely have a future with the Brewers and I root for that to happen, but he's not a prospect in the way that prospect mavens use the term.

Josh Hamilton was 26 when getting first called up. Was he not a prospect?

 

Randy Johnson was 25 and had spent 4 years in the minors before getting called up. Was he not a prospect or a borderline one?

 

Axford got called up at the same age as Fiers is right now and similarly started in the minors at 24. Did he not constitute a prospect in reality?

 

The definition of a prospect is not, or should not, be so rigid so as to exclude players above certain ages. Everybody has different circumstances in their careers to cause them to reach the major leagues later or earlier than others. A prospect is anyone who, when looking at all the circumstances, projects to benefit a major league team in the future. If the collective projected impact of all of them combined is better than average then you have a good farm system.

[kramnoj]

May I have a definition of the way prospect mavens use the term? I didn't know there was an exact definition.

 

The easiest response for me is, I can't define it, but I know it when I see it. I wonder why you ask the question though.

 

Do you think Fiers is a prospect, in the way that BA and other minor league devotees use the term? If so, why did he last to the 22nd round? Why hasn't he been ranked by BA in their top 100? Even in the most recent Power 50, he's number 19. I don't think that a team's 19th best prospect is going to meet the definition of a major league prospect.

 

My own definition of prospect would be a player who has the tools to have significant impact at the major league level and who has demonstrated some level of performance to go along with the tools in a way that is equal to or superior to his peers.

 

It is certainly possible for a player to have a good, possibly great MLB career with out being a prospect.

Josh Hamilton was 26 when getting first called up. Was he not a prospect?

 

This seems to be an odd response if you are quoting me. I didn't use the term called up. I mentioned the age at when he first appeared in AA. Hamilton isn't anywhere close to a valid comparison. He was actually rated the #1 prospect once upon a time, and made it to AA at age 20.

 

Randy Johnson was 25 and had spent 4 years in the minors before getting called up. Was he not a prospect or a borderline one?

 

He was called up in his 24 age season. He doesn't appear to have been ranked in BA's top 100, but he was drafted in the 2nd round. I don't think it would be accurate to say he spent 4 seasons in the minors.

 

Axford got called up at the same age as Fiers is right now and similarly started in the minors at 24. Did he not constitute a prospect in reality?

 

Axford was in AAA by his age 24 season. You aren't finding actual comparable players.

 

A prospect is anyone who, when looking at all the circumstances, projects to benefit a major league team in the future.

 

That definition becomes so broad as to be close to meaningless. A player destined for a role as a backup catcher isn't a prospect in any useful sense of the word.

If the collective projected impact of all of them combined is better than average then you have a good farm system.

 

That's an interesting point. Have you done the research to say that this is the current state of the Brewers minor league system?

[ramssuperbowl99]

Do we still have the worst system in baseball, even if we don't count our draft picks? Because if we do, how is it that:

 

(a) our mlb team has the fourth-best record in all of baseball in mid-August, and

 

(b) our AAA team has at least seven prospects who realistically could play significant roles on next year's team:

 

Green

Gindl

Peralta

Schafer

Fiers

De la Cruz (I know he's up now, but only technically)

Maldonado?

 

I'm not counting Gamel because he's not a rookie and because his opportunity is the only one that figures to come at the expense of a player we wish we could keep. All of these other guys could -- not necessarily will, but could -- fit in as improvements to what is already a very good Brewers team.

A. Because a big league team's record has nothing to do with their farm system. Kansas City had the best farm system in baseball last year, and they stunk. The Brewers had among the best systems in baseball in 2004-2005.

B. I'll take the players' realistic ceiling in order:

1. Green - Average 3B.

2. Gindle - 4th OF.

3. Peralta- #2 SP, clearly our best prospect and the only one I would consider a good bet to be a significant contributer

4. Schafer - Below average CF starter, more likely a backup utility OF

5. Fiers - Fringe middle reliever

6. De La Cruz - Fringe middle reliever

7. Maldonaldo - Has absolutely no use to any major league ball club ever.

Further, it's worth noting that people often say because a team's system is bad, there is no MLB talent. That's not true. It just means the Brewers have less talent in their system than other teams.

FWIW, even with the draft picks, we've got a bottom tier system. It's not as bad as the Chicago White Sox's system or anything, but it's in the bottom third. Aside from the picks, there is only 1 guy who I think is a good bet to be an above average regular in the MLB (Peralta), and a ton of role players or guys with substantial question marks (Thornburg's height/durability, Green/Gamel making jump and hitting outside the PCL, etc.).

EDIT: Also, did someone really mention Fiers as a prospect because Josh Hamilton struggled with cocaine and heroin instead of dominating the big leagues at 21, Randy Johnson was a 6'10" lefty who threw 100 mph and took a while to figure it out, and John Axford had a fluke mechanical change that magically improved his velocity like 8 miles per hour? I can't really tell because my eyes are bleeding.

[Bernman23]

For God's sake, they were analogies, not 1:1 comparisons. I know that's a tough concept for some people. The point of listing the players I did was to show age, outside extremes, shouldn't be practically the sole cause for excluding a minor leaguer as a prospect. Fiers had his own circumstances preventing him being further along in his career at this point. He was 24 when he entered the system. Since signing he's moved up the ladder faster than most collegiate prospects. They weren't going to put him at the major league level immediately and tell him to sink or swim because he was 24. He had to conquer levels just like about every other minor leaguer. And he doesn't need to wind up being as impactful as any of the names I listed to be a prospect.

 

As far as saying the Brewers have a good farm system, that never happened. I was simply defining what made a good farm system. It should be obvious, but apparently it wasn't if players could be left out of the equation because they don't fit rigid qualifications.

 

For the record, I don't think the Brewers have a good farm system, or even an average one. However, the improvement in statuses of prospects like Green, Schafer, Peralta, Thornburg, and yes even Fiers, etc.; make it far from the worst as was originally claimed.

[kramnoj]

For God's sake, they were analogies, not 1:1 comparisons. I know that's a tough concept for some people.

 

Well, you didn't find one analogy that worked either. Given that you couldn't do that, it seemed to be an exercise in futility.

 

The point of listing the players I did was to show age, outside extremes, shouldn't be practically the sole cause for excluding a minor leaguer as a prospect.

 

You didn't support your point. Your analogies were of players when they became major league players.

 

However, the improvement in statuses of prospects like Green, Schafer, Peralta, Thornburg, and yes even Fiers, etc.; make it far from the worst as was originally claimed.

 

How far? Have you made projections for all Brewer farmhands and then for other systems to reach this conclusion?

[PlayerHader]

Rams..you know what ceiling means, right? You don't think Green could be an above average 3B? Gindl won't ever be even a platoon starter on the OF? I disagree with your assessment.

[battlekow]

I'd say its a bit to early to say hes not a prospect.

What's your definition of prospect?

 

Fiers could absolutely have a future with the Brewers and I root for that to happen, but he's not a prospect in the way that prospect mavens use the term.

A prospect, to my mind, is a player who projects to contribute at the big-league level. It is not a binary term; it's a spectrum. Hence, you can have a Mike Fiers or a Martin Maldonado both--for the sake of this argument--be poor bets to contribute even average performance, and yet be likely bets to contribute something. We have a term for this--"poor prospect". Note that it includes the word "prospect". The Brewers have a lot of poor prospects. That's not a reason to look a gift backup catcher in the mouth.

Now, a lot of this is semantics. You say "Fiers could absolutely have a future with the Brewers" but don't want to use the word "prospect" to describe him? Fine, whatever. We, and almost everyone else, agree on the contents, regardless of the label.

[logan82]

Sessile Fielder wrote:

Now, a lot of this is semantics.

That is sort of kramnoj's forte.

[And That]

I'd define a prospect as someone, who without any significant MLB playing time, could impact a MLB team. A prospect doesn't need to be a guy who could potentially hit .300/.400/.500 or throw 95 MPH on the black. Lots of guys in MLB do neither of those things. Minor leaguers who project as, or could potentially be, competent players have a lot of value. They don't need to have impact potential to make an impact.

[dadofandrew]

Maldonado is on the 40, and will almost certainly spend several years in the majors because of his defense. If he's not a prospect, Hank Blanco has never had a career. Fiers looks to be on the 40 this offseason as well.

 

From what I've seen of DLC, he's got more talent than half the pitchers in MLB, it's just never been harnessed. Last year, Vogelsong was released from AAA, maybe twice. Giving up on guys with talent does not have much upside. Guys that can hold down a reserve role for the minimum for a couple seasons have value.

[Mass Haas]

Fiers looks to be on the 40 this offseason as well.

Mike Fiers would not need to be added to the 40-man roster until he's in Milwaukee, either next year or 2013. Only three seasons into his pro career, he would not need to be protected from Rule 5 this offseason.

[ramssuperbowl99]

Rams..you know what ceiling means, right? You don't think Green could be an above average 3B? Gindl won't ever be even a platoon starter on the OF? I disagree with your assessment.

Yes I do. And no I don't. He's a guy who gets the most out of his tools, but isn't the kind of defensive whiz or offensive juggernaut to post consistent seasons with more than 2 WAR. And no, Gindl won't be a platoon starter, because the only place that could happen is CF but he doesn't have the speed to stick there. I guess if a team thought he was a CF, he might, but I doubt it.

[JohnBriggs12]

It's totally semantics.

 

Whether Fiers is or isn't on the 40 man this winter, he has a great chance of making the 25 man roster in the spring as the Brewers figure to have bullpen spots open. Much like Axford, what he does with that opportunity will determine whether or not he indeed was or wasn't a prospect despite his age.

 

Maldanado got promoted quickly because of his defense, hence it's not surprising it's taken his offense longer to develop. He clearly is a prospect now.

 

Making a Baseball America list means nothing. Tons of guys on that list never make an impact in the majors and tons of guys who were never on that list do make an impact.

[yoshii8]

Ramssuperbowl, Gindl has a .856 OPS as a 22 year old in AAA and the only position he could platoon at is CF? I know he's short and might not have all plus tools, but I don't buy it. How do you have such definite answers, like " no, Ginl won't be a platoon starter"?

[dadofandrew]

Mass, someone said Fiers would have to be added, either the JS or Adam. I do not know if they are correct, but I was assuming they were.

 

Another option is 26-year-old righty Michael Fiers, who last started

Wednesday for Nashville and is 10-3 with a 2.26 ERA for two affiliates

this season. He is not on the 40-man roster at the moment, but must be

added by December to avoid exposure to the Rule 5 Draft. That makes him,

at the very least, a likely September callup.

Adam from MLB.com posted that yesterday.

[dadofandrew]

Doug mentioned the other day Gindl is one of the youngest successful players in AAA. I compared his stats to Hart's a while back and they are all but the same. Caleb is going to play in the majors for a long time, in all likelihood.

[captkirk16]

I have a quick question...

 

When do the Sept call ups happen and hpw many players can go?