Jim Callis: Brewers have the worst minor league system in baseball

[logan82]

I think it could be argued that we don't have good people on the defensive coaching side since most of our players that had defensive deficiencies didn't improve until they got to the majors. Really the guys that have contributed from our MiLB system have mostly been top of the draft picks. Guys that you would almost actively try to derail their careers. The other contributes have been scrap heap pickups. I really don't see anything special so far from the minor league development. I guess you could argue Hart but he was a pretty good hitter through his MiLB career.

[Thurston Fluff]

I think it could be argued that we don't have good people on the defensive coaching side since most of our players that had defensive deficiencies didn't improve until they got to the majors.

 

Fair point. I would have said pitching a couple season's ago as well. I think the approach Melvin has taken since then should help on the injury front.

 

Really the guys that have contributed from our MiLB system have mostly been top of the draft picks. Guys that you would almost actively try to derail their careers.

 

Escobar wasn't drafted and Cain was a 17th round pick. Hart was already mentioned. Hardy was a 2nd rounder as was YoGa. Second round picks are hardly guys who you have to work at to screw up. They are guys who have talent and potential but in reality the ones who are usually can't miss types are the top of the 1st round. Heck guys like Arnett and Heckathorn are higher picks and nobody is calling them can't miss, you'd have to work hard to screw them up, types.

I think who you have developing them matter enough to think it should be part of the evaluation of how good the system is.

[logan82]

Backupcatchers wrote:

I think who you have developing them matter enough to think it should be part of the evaluation of how good the system is.

I guess I just don't see that we could say our MiLB coaches and roving instructors are any better than most other organizations. I don't think Cain or Escobar would have fared much better or worse in another system. If you include Hardy and Gallardo you have to include Lucroy. It isn't like other teams are not also developing guys out of later rounds.

[colbyjack]

Some of the recent discussion and prospect rankings fueled me to write the story as linked below. As I note at the top of the story, I don't usually write about the Brewers in my work at Perfect Game, but I really do think their recent success developing players, as well as their recent acquisitions using some of those players, warrants significant attention. Plus, I don't think the farm is in as bad of shape as many are making it out to be.

 

Brewers Deal from Strength

[docduany]

Nice article Patrick. Thanks for posting the link.

[pretendastronaut]

Keith Law put out his organizational rankings recently, and also ranked the Brewers 30th;

 

30. Milwaukee Brewers

The first organization to fail to place a single prospect on my Top 100 list since I first produced these rankings in 2008 ... although landing Shaun Marcum and Zack Greinke is a pretty good excuse. Even before those trades, however, their system as a whole wasn't strong, with a lot of pitchers failing to progress once in the system. They might need one of those arms -- Wily Peralta, perhaps, or Amaury Rivas -- to increase his value this spring for a possible July trade.

 

For those of you with Insider access, the full article is here;

 

http://insider.espn.go.co...ory?page=2011MLBOrgRanks

[colbyjack]

BA released their top 100 prospect list today. Before I add a minor complaint, I do want to offer a tip of the cap to Baseball America for their hard work, as prospect ranking season is always exciting, and I recognize how much work goes into compiling all of their lists.

 

http://www.baseballameric...spects/2011/2611328.html

 

My complaint comes in the form of Jake Odorizzi, ranked as the #69 prospect. That alone isn't my complaint, but if you have read this whole thread you will know that when Odorizzi was still a member of the Brewers, he was thought to be a fringe top 100 prospect. Being ranked 69th is obviously far from being a fringe top 100 prospect. I recognize that the Greinke trade had a lot to do with that, but a lot of it boils down to perception. All it takes is one person to rally behind a prospect for that player to gain steam in such rankings.

 

Lawrie is #40. No Jeffress, no other Brewers farmhands, past or present, made the list.

[Tbadder]

I happen to think the rating of dead last is okay, and probably closer to the truth than say, claiming the Brewers finish in the middle of the pack. But so what? Those prospects have been turned over for proven major league pitching--probably the single hardest commodity to come by. And if we did obtain such value, then isn't it fair to say that maybe the Royals and Blue Jays did their due diligence and valued our prospects highly. If the Brewers start the cycle again this year with this draft, that comes close to replicating what they've done in the past--well then i think we'll be just fine.

[TheCrew07]

If the Brewers start the cycle again this year with this draft, that comes close to replicating what they've done in the past--well then i think we'll be just fine.

I don't see that at all.... Weeks, Braun, and Fielder were all drafted in the first 10 picks, we just aren't going to be picking that high. In reality a team can only trade away as many prospects as Melvin has if they are also losing FAs and getting comp picks in return, which we aren't. Losing Fielder won't help draft wise until 2012, getting boned with Sabathia hurt some, and getting nothing for Sheets was crushing. I already did a quick analysis of the recent drafts, the Brewers just aren't having much success replenishing the impact talent well.

 

A pretty conservative estimate would be we need 2 legit impact prospects to replace an impact bat already in the line-up or pitcher already in the rotation... we don't have anyone in the system with the potential right now that will come close to matching Braun or Fielder's production. I had high hopes for Gamel and Lawrie but it's tough to stay on the Gamel bandwagon when he doesn't stay healthy and make the most of his opportunities, Macha or not, and Lawrie is gone. Rogers could be an impact pitcher, I would be thrilled if he figured out his command, but we'll always have to be concerned with his health.

 

Weeks, Braun, and Hart are signed long term so that give us some breathing room, but I'm not a fan of the money spent on Hart and I think signing McGehee long term would be a mistake as well. I'm fine if they want to sign Casey through his arbitration years but I wouldn't buy any of his FA years, he's too old for that kind of deal.

 

I would much rather be getting younger and more dynamic, young teams can win, can get to the WS, and can win it all. That's a pipe dream with Melvin as GM though, he cycles talent the opposite direction trading prospects for proven players so we don't have any flexibility payroll or talent wise... we're 1 deep everywhere, and not even 1 deep in some positions. We'll just have to hope this off season works out wonderfully and Hart to continues to play at last year's level because we have a system of role players at this time. Acquiring Greinke and Marcum to go 1 and done again in the playoffs would be a colossal blunder in my opinion. Wainwright getting hurt was a big break before the season even started but we're a long ways from playing deep into October like I keep reading. The Brewers are going to need to stay awfully healthy to make a serious run and even at 100% I'm not sold we win the division.

 

The Brewers should be above .500 the next 2 years and the top 15 picks in the draft are protected (Fielder Comp pick) so the likely hood of being able to draft uber college talent like Braun or Weeks seems awfully remote, and the system needs more impact pitching as well. We'd have to get lucky with a signability guy dropping and panning out perfectly to get an impact player. It's absolutely possible to get impact talent late in the first round, but the Brewers haven't exactly hit home runs with that first pick the last 2 years. Most likely we'll need to draft younger players to get that kind of talent, but those players take more time to develop.

 

There's still plenty to like about the system and there are still plenty of players I'm high on, but it's going to take at least 3 good drafts in a row to fix the system. And no, drafting high floor\low ceiling college players with early picks who will move fast is not a good solution to the problem, that path hasn't worked for any team that's tried it since I've been following the minors, it's a nothing but a recipe for what not to do.

[Tbadder]

While I can't argue with what you're saying, I don't see any of the players the Brewers traded as impact players, though I admit Lawrie and possibly Odorizzi could turn into those players. And if we can get the likes of Grienke for players not named Braun, Weeks, or Fielder--then that is an excellent way to deploy the minor league system. If we can trade high 1st rounders, middle first rounders, sandwich picks for proven major league pitching I'm thinking that might be okay. But I take your point for sure.

[CheezWizHed]

We had a choice:

A) Stand pat and put a .500 ball team out this year. Then trickle in prospects Lawrie and Odor, etc... in the next couple of years to hope we remain a .500 ball team.

 

B) Create a hole in our minor league system and acquire players to help us win right now. So having playoff chances for the next 2 years, before having a talent drop off (maybe) and play as a sub-500 team for a couple years while rebuilding.

 

As a Brewer fan, I'll take B every time. Take the window of opportunity and go for the WS. Even just getting to the playoffs or winning the Central would be worth it. You really want 3-4 more seasons of "We were close to winning the wildcard!"?

[craigharmann]

As a Brewer fan, I'll take B every time. Take the window of opportunity and go for the WS. Even just getting to the playoffs or winning the Central would be worth it. You really want 3-4 more seasons of "We were close to winning the wildcard!"?

Agreed. And you have to take some calculated gambles. The next couple of years, the Central looks wide open, so why not go for it? And all of the pieces fell into place. Both the Jays and Royals could have said no the Brewers' offers, but they didn't, the trades were made and we move forward. I'm cool with the farm being barren of top caliber talent for the next couple of years if it means 2-3 Central titles, NL Championships and WS titles. Or something close to that!

[The Truth]

There is certainly reason to be concerned, when pitchers like Amaury Rivas or Cody Scarpetta don't have anywhere close to the stats that Yovani Gallardo put up in the minors, especially as it pertains to WHIP but also ERA. I am all for "going for it" for a couple of years as the Brewers are, but systematically the franchise needs to start developing top-flight pitching and fast or its going to be a long decade after Marcum & Greinke leave

[battlekow]

There is certainly reason to be concerned, when pitchers like Amaury Rivas or Cody Scarpetta don't have anywhere close to the stats that Yovani Gallardo put up in the minors, especially as it pertains to WHIP but also ERA. I am all for "going for it" for a couple of years as the Brewers are, but systematically the franchise needs to start developing top-flight pitching and fast or its going to be a long decade after Marcum & Greinke leave

And yet...

The Truth wrote:

---

Amaury Rivas. I think he will be a dominant pitcher in the minors this season

[The Truth]

Yes! I remain ever optimistic

[battlekow]

John Manuel filling in for Jim Callis in a BA chat:

Chris (Durham, NC): Am I correct in understanding that many talent evaluators would rank roughly 15-20 Royals prospects ahead of the #1 prospect for the Brewers? Obviously that says a lot about both systems, but which system does is say more about? Thanks.

John Manuel: I think that's fair. We had Salvador Perez at No. 17 for Kansas City. I love Mark Rogers personally, really rooting for him, but as a prospect, I'd guess the consensus is Perez > Rogers. That said, Milwaukee's big league team is much, much better than KC's team, right? It seems like fun to poke at Milwaukee's system, but (a) the Covey thing wasn't their fault, (b) they're all-in for this year, © they've graduated more talent the last five years than KC by a wide margin.

[paul253]

I think it's a pretty safe bet that whoever the Brewers pick with their first two picks in the draft this season, assuming they sign they will be the top 2 prospects in the organization. This is a good year to have two top 15 picks.

[Eddiehitsthefoulpole]

I have been to a couple of Timber Rattlers games in the last couple of years and I have noticed that we have very few international players on our roster while the other teams have at least 5. I am sure that plays into our farm system weakness. I wonder if we are spending too much on major league talent (or journeymen) and not enough on signing international players. Just a thought?

[battlekow]

I have been to a couple of Timber Rattlers games in the last couple of years and I have noticed that we have very few international players on our roster while the other teams have at least 5. I am sure that plays into our farm system weakness. I wonder if we are spending too much on major league talent (or journeymen) and not enough on signing international players. Just a thought?

Ben Badler looked at this recently, and his data agrees with your intuition regarding the paucity of significant Brewers international signings.

[TheCrew07]

I was searching for Ronald Johnson and this thread came up in the list, I had forgotten about him until Dhonks' post in today's link report.

 

It was the first time I read the entire thread and there were questions and comments I should have responded to over the winter, but I honestly only visited brewerfan.net 3 or 4 times over the winter and never came back to this thread until March, and even then just posted on the one comment, so I apologize. I will say this, I've suggested plenty of trades over the years and after 2009 there didn't seem to be any point to it as Melvin and I are idealogically opposed. As for being condescending when I suggested most people weren't capable of discussing prospects because they didn't have the knowledge, I was speaking to the MLB/Trade forums, and I still believe that sentiment to be true. This site has thousands of members but the number of posters which participate in the minor league forum is in the vast minority.

 

Given the backwards movement of both Rivas and Rogers, Peralta's up and down season, the emergence of Thornburg, Kris Davis' continued dominance, and the draft being complete, how do people feel about this now? For me Rivas and Rogers have been offset somewhat by the success of Thornburg and Davis, while Heckathorn keeps advancing and Fiers is back starting. I'm still not sure what to make of Fiers, the results as a starter have been fanstastic though. I wasn't thrilled by the draft, which could possibly be a good thing given I've liked our recent drafts and they haven't turned out all that well. My overall opinion hasn't changed much, the players advancing being basically offset by players regressing. Green's comeback is probably my biggest story on the season, I had written him off expecting he would never be the same player after his injury, what a pleasant development he's been given McGehee's struggles.

[paul253]

While I am thrilled by the emergence of Thornburg and Khris Davis, I am equally disappointed by guys like Rogers, Kentrail Davis, and Jimmy Nelson. It's nice seeing Schafer hitting again and finally being healthy, and it's nice seeing guys like Green, Gindl, and Bucci have some success. Gennett, Peralta, Scarpetta and Heckathorn haven't really taken off but they haven't really taken a step back either so I guess you can't complain. I'm excited to see how Jungmann, Bradely and our second round pick (his name eludes me right now) do once they sign. Overall, I guess I'd like to see more guys have success but considering how few true impact players are in the system you can't complain too much. The Brewers need to be much more aggressive with their players though. Seid seems to favor more of the safe college players in his drafts which is fine I guess, but if you're going to do that they need to advance quickly. There is no reason for Khris Davis to be in BC right now. Schafer I think should be moved up. Wooten should be moved up. I'd be ok with Komatsu moving up even though he's really struggled lately. I'd also like to see the Brewers draft more toolsy, high ceiling high school players then they have been lately.

[TooLiveBrew]

The Brewers need to be much more aggressive with their players though. Seid seems to favor more of the safe college players in his drafts which is fine I guess, but if you're going to do that they need to advance quickly.

 

In his visit to the broadcast booth in last night's game, Melvin specifically mentioned that they want to be aggressive with Thornburg. He said something to the effect of, 'We want to get him some starts at Brevard, and then continue to be aggressive with him.' Sorry I don't recall that verbatim, but it definitely left me with the impression that Thornburg has the opportunity to pitch his way to Huntsville this season.

 

Now, this coming after keeping him at Wisconsin for the entire first half makes you scratch your head a bit, and I've complained as much as anyone about the Crew needing to be more aggressive with player promotions. However, I'm very hopeful the Brewers will be aggressive from the get-go with someone like Jungmann.

[Nader Raider Tim]

I'd be thrilled it Thornburg was able to get 3-5+ starts at Huntsville this year. Then next year is given to opportunity to earn his was from AA to AAA, with a potential mid late year call up, if he earns it. I am not a fan of being aggressive, simply to be aggressive, but when you have players who out perform the level it's time to move them up.

[hyerbro1]

Klaw ranked Wily Peralta among his Honorable Mentions in Mid-Season top 50. He also had this to say about Peralta in his latest chat. Looks like Klaw agrees with the Power 50 that Peralta is the Brewers best prospect.

 

Tito (Boston)

 

What has Wily Peralta done to go from outside the Top 100 to honorable mention for the Top 50? His numbers from this year seem relatively pedestrian

Klaw

(2:03 PM)

 

Heard he was hitting 98 repeatedly in the matchup against Eovaldi last week - and he's getting groundballs, too.

[paul253]

That's funny. A guy from Boston complaining about a prospect being overrated.