Jim Callis: Brewers have the worst minor league system in baseball

[patrickgpe]

Again, I disagree with the notion that the Brewers are lacking talent in the upper levels of the system.

 

 

patrick I believe they have talent, I was just stating that they have lost some top talent and their overall top talent has been weakened. I think Rodgers can be a player and I like Scarpetta and Heckathorn. I think the brewers biggest issue will be if position players go down this summer, there isn't much talent that can come in and contribute at this point. Besides Gamel and Rivera there is noone with more than a handful of major league at bats and Gamel has struggled when given limited time in the majors

[colbyjack]

patrickgpe, I was actually supporting your comments, with mine directed more towards BA/Tom Haudricourt.

 

I don't think I have ever seen a BA list draw less interest.

 

The minor leagues exist for one reason--to make the big club better.

 

Very well, and simply stated DHonks.

[patrickgpe]

sorry colby I misread it. I agree that the minors are there to make the majors better. I do see talent there but the offensive talent is in A which isn't going to help us in 2011. I am afraid that there isn't the prospects or money to help in if there is a significant offensive injury in 2011. knock on wood.

[patrickgpe]

also patrick, i see yudiel rivera as the 2014 prospect i don't see him on the power50 nor haven't heard of him, what do you know of him?

[colbyjack]

I think that's why the team is loading up on some reclamation projects for the outfield, such as Brandon Boggs and Brandon Jones, as the OF would be the one area that is a little concerning when it comes to depth. Even then, guys like Schafer and Gindl (and even Komatsu) could be turned to if absolutely needed. Farris is at AAA for 2B, and Gamel could be plugged in on the corner IF and OF. Counsell may be the starter at SS by midseason depending on how Betancourt fares, Cruz is available as well at the position, while Kottaras, Rivera and Nieves are in line to replace and/or help out Lucroy during his first full professional season. Obviously if the team loses someone like Braun or Fielder it's going to hurt no matter how much talent you have in place to replace them. With any team, no matter how many resources and money they have, you need a little luck, such as good health, to go along with productivity.

 

If you didn't read the chat, 2 small things stood out to me: The team is going to continue to use Gindl in CF to try and maximize his value, while also addressing the biggest team need in CF, while Komatsu may be the team's leadoff hitter of the future given his ability to get on-base.

[colbyjack]

Here is Rivera's scouting profile from the 2010 draft:

 

http://brewersfandemonium...Selection-Signing-Thread

 

He has a long way to go, but as the report indicates above, which has since been confirmed, he shows a very high aptitude defensively and picks up the game fairly quick. As the draft profile also mentions, there is promise at the plate but he needs to put on some muscle to be able to drive the ball with more authority more consistently. Somewhat similar to Alcides Escobar at a similar stage of his development, but with a much bigger, more projectable frame. Rivera is definitely a player that has been generating some buzz from within the Brewers organization recently, and is one of the bigger sleeper prospects to watch heading into the 2011 season.

[patrickgpe]

I think that's why the team is loading up on some reclamation projects for the outfield, such as Brandon Boggs

 

right now i see him as the 5th OF since there are no better options, but i agree with your assessment of our offensive players in the minors.

 

also thanks for linking the scouting report. i forgot he was a 2010 draftee.

[kramnoj]

I saw this linked elsewhere, thought I might post it here. Someone went through all of Sickels current rankings and assigned dollar values based on the research of Victor Wang. Based on this, the Brewers are 29th in terms of the top 10 players in the system:

 

http://www.minorleaguebal...els-farm-system-rankings

 

Again, this only addresses the top 10 players ranked, so it won't take into account some of the younger players that the Brewers would be looking at in the middle part of this decade.

[Mass Haas]

From McCalvy's Inbox

The Brewers anticipate Scarpetta joining that group, but Major League Baseball does not award those fourth options until the original three are exhausted. It would give the Brewers another year to evaluate Scarpetta, who turns 23 in August and is probably in line for a promotion to Double-A Huntsville this season. It looks like he won't be in the big league discussion until 2012.

Thank you! That's the exact link and comment I had been searching for! Which, not surprisingly, make BA's comments on his option status blurrily incorrect, although technically they can make the point. It would be shocking if the 4th option weren't granted next fall, thus delaying Scarpetta's "must remain in the big leagues" date to 2013.

[TooLiveBrew]

I guess it just depends on what criteria one uses. I think we have a good number of high ceiling guys, specially pitchers, who have a long way to go. I don't see that as bad as much as simply not ready.

You're just comparing the system against an arbitrary standard, though. If the criterion is "Do I like the system, personally?", then you can answer any way you like. However, when you compare the Brewers' system to the other MLB systems, which is obv. how they're ranked 1st to 30th, you see that it's a bad system right now. Basically every team has the quantity & quality of players the Brewers have right now, but just about every team has more of them &/or better quality. I'm sure down at the bottom there are probably a handful of systems you could argue are the worst, just like at the top there are probably a few that could be ranked #1. But when making a list & ranking the systems, someone has to come in last.

 

There are really zero impact bats in the system right now -- Kentrail Davis is probably the best pure bat right now, & there have been a lot of questions about just how much power he'll hit for as he progresses (fwiw I like Davis). The clear-cut best arm in the system has a looong injury history, & questionable mechanics in terms of long-term health. I think you're vastly overstating the talent in the minors. The talent the Brewers have is talent that every organization has, essentially, and they lack any true impact-type prospects. It's really not surprising to me that the system isn't highly regarded right now.

[reillymcshane]

I guess it just depends on what criteria one uses. I think we have a good number of high ceiling guys, specially pitchers, who have a long way to go. I don't see that as bad as much as simply not ready.

You're just comparing the system against an arbitrary standard, though. If the criterion is "Do I like the system, personally?", then you can answer any way you like. However, when you compare the Brewers' system to the other MLB systems, which is obv. how they're ranked 1st to 30th, you see that it's a bad system right now. Basically every team has the quantity & quality of players the Brewers have right now, but just about every team has more of them &/or better quality. I'm sure down at the bottom there are probably a handful of systems you could argue are the worst, just like at the top there are probably a few that could be ranked #1. But when making a list & ranking the systems, someone has to come in last.

 

There are really zero impact bats in the system right now -- Kentrail Davis is probably the best pure bat right now, & there have been a lot of questions about just how much power he'll hit for as he progresses (fwiw I like Davis). The clear-cut best arm in the system has a looong injury history, & questionable mechanics in terms of long-term health. I think you're vastly overstating the talent in the minors. The talent the Brewers have is talent that every organization has, essentially, and they lack any true impact-type prospects. It's really not surprising to me that the system isn't highly regarded right now.

TooLive gets this totally right.

 

We have talent - but everyone else has this kind of talent level and more.

 

It happens. We've graduated/traded a lot of guys the last few years. We've had lower picks in the first round. We lost last year's top pick to college. It takes its toll.

 

We get a couple of good picks this year. We'll get a couple of extra high picks in 2012 assuming Prince leaves. Four picks if Weeks has a good year and leaves. We can reload with some high level guys. Plus, the lower level guys will either sink or swim as they advance up to the higher minor league levels and show their true potential. The system will be very different in 3 years.

 

The big issue is that outside of Rogers, there isn't a potential impact player coming to Milwaukee for several years. We can add those kinds of players in the upcoming drafts, but what we are going to develop over the next 3-4 years are back of the end rotation guys, some relievers (maybe some very good ones), and a couple of potential starting infielders and outfielders - but no one really extraordinary - more fringy type starters, back ups. Nothing wrong with these types - every team needs them. There are no bats like Ryan Braun or Prince Fielder or Rickie Weeks in the pipeline (Gamel could be very good, but he's technically not a rookie). But I think that's the realistic outcome of these guys.

[Thurston Fluff]

here are really zero impact bats in the system right now

 

bats no arms yes.

 

However, when you compare the Brewers' system to the other MLB systems, which is obv. how they're ranked 1st to 30th, you see that it's a bad system right now.

 

Maybe I'm just wrong in how I view farm systems in general. In my own way of seeing the system, going back to before the Bando days has always been what the system will add in major league players over a set period of time regardless of how many other teams are rated as better or worse. I judged Bando's farm to be horrid because I couldn't legitimatly see any prospects to speak of at any level. There were years where you could look at the entire farm system and see maybe one or two who were legitimate major league prospects not just the best of the bad types. I don't see our farm in that light today. I just see a decent number of guys who have a ways to go but have a shot at legitimate big league careers. Whether that number is comparable to other systems in any given year is irrelevant to me.

I am not trying to defend our system, or the management. Even if it does truly suck today it is perfectly understandable why it is where it is. It's just that I have always looked at a system as it relates to numbers of prospects instead of comparatively to other systems.

I guess it's just a different way of looking at the same thing. Not saying my way is right just saying that is the way I've always looked at it.

[colbyjack]

Just for comparisons sake, did anyone read the Pirates top prospect list? I will be interested to see where BA has them in the organizational rankings, but outside of the guys at the top (Jameson Taillon, Tony Sanchez and Stetson Allie) and two guys I don't know as much about (Luis Heredia and Starling Marte) there doesn't seem to be too much else to get excited about, and all of those guys minus Sanchez are years away from contributing. I like Taillon's chances to making it and enjoying success, but similar to my point much earlier about how the Brewers should be given the benefit of the doubt for developing talent to the big-leagues, the Pirates' track record of doing so with early picks, particularly pitchers, isn't that great.

 

So this goes back to the argument of impact talent vs. depth. There is some encouraging depth in the Brewers system, but more impact talent, albeit a long ways off. If the Pirates aren't rated in the 20s, possibly towards the end with the Brewers, I will be a little suprised, and confused.

[Thurston Fluff]

There is some encouraging depth in the Brewers system, but more impact talent, albeit a long ways off.

 

I guess my whole point can be summed up by saying if that statement is true how can the only discussion be how bad the farm is? Regardless of how other systems are doing the job of the farm is to provide impact talent and depth. There are players of both types in the system though it is a ways away. Since there are legitimate players how can it be bad in an absolute sense. As far as comparatively speaking if somehow all other farms went downhill for a couple season's does that make our players better? Of course not. They don't hit or pitcher better. They still have the same talent level. They just look better because they are standing next to the uglier ones. Thus my belief it doesn't really matter if others are better or worse? Judge the system on it's ability to provide depth and impact players no thwo has better ones.

[TooLiveBrew]

Judge the system on it's ability to provide depth and impact players not who has better ones.

 

Sure, but you're omitting the fact that our players have to go out & compete against those other players eventually. Who the other players in the league are is 100% relevant, I'm surprised you'd suggest they wouldn't be.

 

 

As far as comparatively speaking if somehow all other farms went

downhill for a couple season's does that make our players better? Of

course not.

 

No, but it would make our system better in a 1-30 ranking, and that's what this discussion is about.

[colbyjack]

There is some encouraging depth in the Brewers system, but more impact talent, albeit a long ways off.

 

Sorry, I mistyped above. The above comment should have read: "There is some encouraging depth in the Brewers system, but more impact talent in the Pirates system, albeit a long ways off."

 

And as I've also mentioned before, ranking prospects, and then ranking the organizations is somewhat difficult since it is almost completely a subjective conversation.

 

After Callis made the comments that he did, and prior to the BA list coming out I grabbed BA's 2003 prospect handbook from my bookshelf, which IIRC is the earliest one I have. The Cardinals were ranked as something like the 24th best farm system at the time, yet they had guys like Dan Haren and Yadier Molina among the top 10, who, based on their success now would most likely significant alter how the systems are ranked in hindsight. It seems obvious that the Royals have the best system in baseball, but the same can be said for the Brewers in the late 80s. If guys like Moustakas, Hosmer and Myers don't pan out much like Billy Jo Robidoux, Joey Meyer and Glenn Braggs didn't, their #1 ranking won't mean a thing.

 

That is why I think it is important to place some emphasis on a team's recent ability to develop talent. Without a doubt I agree that the Royals have the best system in baseball, but at the same time, they haven't had the best success in recent years turning talented baseball players into productive baseball players (such as Alex Gordon, Luke Hochevar and Chris Lubanski). I do recognize the Brewers haven't done as good of a job developing pitchers, but at least some (Rogers and Jeffress, even if he's no longer in the system) have rebounded to reclaim previous expectations to a certain degree.

[TooLiveBrew]

That is why I think it is important to place some emphasis on a team's recent ability to develop talent.

 

Excellent post, Patrick. Like I mentioned in my first response to Buc in this thread, I'm assuming there are probably 5-ish teams that would be in the running for worst MiLB system... and they're probably basically interchangeable. The Brewers don't have a great system right now, the reasons for that being obvious. I'm not going to get worried about the farm system being ranked so low, though, due largely to your point about the Brewers having developed talent well in recent years.

 

I know you aren't discussing this part, cj, but rankings saying the Brewers have the 30th-best out of 30 MLB farm systems =/ saying the Brewers don't have any talented players. I liked monty57's take on this discussion in the Greinke thread:

I've mentioned this before, but I think you have to look at the system as a whole, and not separate the minor leagues and major leagues. The Brewers have a young MLB team, with many players under control for a long time. The reason our minor leagues are less-than-stellar is that we've graduated many players to the majors and traded others for top-line MLB talent. Of course I would like to have a stacked MLB team and a stacked MiLB system, but if I had to choose, I'd certainly take a good MLB team with a lot of players locked up long term, but not many MLB-ready MiLB players than a bad MLB team with more promising MiLB players.

Of course, when ranking MLB's 30 farm systems, you're inherently separating MLB & MiLB. It would be interesting to see someone like Callis do organizational talent rankings, assessing talent at all levels, but that seems like it would be boatloads of work to do.

[logan82]

We have good talent but only for the next 2 years. We have a few very good players dropping out soon. It isn't like the players we have will be around until the farm gets better. That is why the MiLB talent is concerning. I don't think we will be terrible after 2012 but we are probably in the 70's for wins and I am ok with that becasue we are looking good at the MLB level.

[YoungGeezy]

We have good talent but only for the next 2 years. We have a few very good players dropping out soon. It isn't like the players we have will be around until the farm gets better. That is why the MiLB talent is concerning. I don't think we will be terrible after 2012 but we are probably in the 70's for wins and I am ok with that becasue we are looking good at the MLB level.

I think our farm is fine, we have great major league talent with nearly everyone except Prince and Weeks (who I think will sign extension) for at least 2011 and 2012. We have Gamel, Green, Farris, Rogers, Rivas, Peralta, Schafer who are all close to being ready this season for at least bench and bullpen roles giving us major league depth. Then you have that next tier group with Scarpetta, Komatsu, Gindl and some others. As I post on the second page he have a buck load of talent who only have 1 or less full seasons in A ball or higher. So of course we are rated so low. In order to be a legit prospect you need to have had success at AA, been a high pick/signing, or put up really sick stats in A or A+. Baseball America is not going to rate the Brewers high when most prospects are inexperienced...

 

Injuried Factor:

Rogers has missed over two years before having a great season in 2010, Komatsu sat out all of 2009, Schafer all of 2010 so as of right now Komatsu and Schafer each have one great season under there belt and that is it. Wooten and Anundsen missed all last season both could be decent pro prospects. Wooten as a set-up man or middle reliever and Anundsen as a possible 4 or 5 pitcher.

 

2009 picks only have 0-1.5 seasons under belt above A ball

Arnett, Heckathorn, Ke. Davis, Garfield, Walla, Brooks, Richardson, Roberts, Howell, Gennett, Khris Davis, Lamontagne, Prince, Burgos, and Cravey which I read good things about.

 

By 2013 you figure these are realistic placements

MLB: Heckathorn, Kentrail Davis, Lamontagne, Fiers

AAA: Gennett, Richardson, Prince, Burgos, Khris Davis, Howell, hopefully Arnett if he turns it around, and I think Garfield

AA: Hall, Walla, Roberts, could all be in AA or at least in A+

 

2010 Draft class has only had 3 months of baseball and by 2013:

-Morris could be in AAA

-I could see Thornburg, Nelson, Hawn, Garman, and outside chance Miller, Ross, Neda all in at least AA to start

-Rivera, Pierce will still be in Wisconsin maybe BC but have big upside and if Kneeling learns where the strike zone is he could be moving up right with the others.

 

DSL team

You never know how they will develop but they have some talent like Jose Pena, Hitaniel Arias, Andres Martinez, Osmel Perez, Ruben Sanchez, Jeffrey Saba, Eliezer Montano, Carlos Sosa, Ronny Pullo, Jose Garcia, Yonki Hernandez, Carlos Pena, Mondesi Jr. all of which will be 23 or younger in 2013. My guess is at least one of these names will become a high ceiling prospect to watch and most should be hitting Wisconsin by 2013.

 

That is just the talent in the last two years without thinking ahead to what we will pick up this season in the draft and where they will be by opening day 2013 (Some may hit AA others most will have completed at least one season in Wisconsin and be in the same spot as Heckathorn, Davis, Gennett.

 

So it is not like so many are making it out to be and we have NO talent because that is untrue and by 2013 when some of these prospects are going to be needed it could be a different story. The brewers system could easily be a top 10 just as easily as it could be somewhere in the 20's. No one knows what will happen, two years A LOT can change but I don't see the Brewers system being consider the worse, even in the 20's after this season and some of the 2010 guys make a name for themselves and 2009 guy duplicate there first season success.

 

Lastly, I have to agree with Colbyjack in that I do not care what our system is ranked. It doesn't matter. The last time I checked no team is completely made up of 100% homegrown players whom were drafted, developed, and promoted to the bigs by there current teams. Brewers need only a couple of prospects a season to turn out and fill the roster with quality players.

[logan82]

I think our farm is fine, we have great major league talent with nearly everyone except Prince and Weeks (who I think will sign extension) for at least 2011 and 2012.

 

Right. For the next 2 years. If Weeks, Fielder, Marcum, and Greinke all leave we don't have guys anywhere near their talent to replace them. We are a low 80/high 70 win team. Not early 2000's crappy but not good. I think there is a good chance 2 of those guys stay but again, we dont' have guys of their caliber in the farm system.

[pingman]

BA likes the haul the Rays received for Garza better than what the Brewers gave up for Greinke (see BA...prospects...."ask BA") ....but they consider the Royals haul from the Brewers more of a sure thing....

 

fwiw...."BA's 2011 Prospect Handbook" rates the top farm systems as follows:

 

1. Royals

2. Braves

3. Rays

 

however they sent their ratings to publication before the aforementioned trades & Callis said he would how have the Rays #2 (Archer would be their #4 prospect)

[Thurston Fluff]

Sure, but you're omitting the fact that our players have to go out & compete against those other players eventually. Who the other players in the league are is 100% relevant, I'm surprised you'd suggest they wouldn't be.

 

Some farms need to be better stocked than ours because they don't have the players on the major league roster to play with us. That doesn't' make ours bad even if theirs does have more players of higher caliber. Their players won't be playing against our minor league players in two years. They will be playing against our major league ones. When that time comes our farm will then be good again by comparison. Not because we got so much better but because theirs got worse. Doesn't make our players any more capable of hitting a curve ball or throwing strikes. Looking at how our players can hit, field or pitch is to me a better way of determining if the guy is good or not than comparing him to someone he may never play against.

 

One thing I haven't' touched yet is the idea that a farm can be good even if it is low on talent at any given time. Players are only as good as the people helping them develop. Having 50 good prospects with poor coaching leads to more busts. Poor conditioning leads to more injury. If we have a good developmental infrastructure in place, which I believe we do, we can compensate for the lack of players somewhat by doing more with less. Combine that with the infusion of talent by good scouting and a system can go from depleted to stocked in a much shorter period of time. SO even if we do have less numbers it still doesn't make this a bad MiLB system.

[logan82]

SO even if we do have less numbers it still doesn't make this a bad MiLB system.

 

The players are what any system is evaluated on. The people in the development system itself will look better if good players come through it even if the people developing those players are not good.

[Thurston Fluff]

I disagree. Good talent doesn't help much if you have guys who can't teach them to harness that talent or burn them out.

[YoungGeezy]

I think our farm is fine, we have great major league talent with nearly everyone except Prince and Weeks (who I think will sign extension) for at least 2011 and 2012.

 

Right. For the next 2 years. If Weeks, Fielder, Marcum, and Greinke all leave we don't have guys anywhere near their talent to replace them. We are a low 80/high 70 win team. Not early 2000's crappy but not good. I think there is a good chance 2 of those guys stay but again, we dont' have guys of their caliber in the farm system.

As of January 14, 2011 no we don't have that kind of caliber but by March 2013 we could, two full years is a long time. As my post pointed out we are too young to know what we have. Where will Heckathorn, Thornburg, Peralta, Scapetta, Nelson, Arnett and so on be in two full season from now. Nor do we know how they will pitch at the major league level. Marcum was a good minor league pitcher but was never thought of an ace type pitcher. From what I saw he was usually graded as a C+. So just because baseball America says Scarpetta, Peralta are only number 3's, does that mean there is no chance they could eclispe that? Some people still don't consider Marcum an ace or top of rotation guy but yet he has pitched stellar in that roll in the best divison in all of baseball.

 

Fact is, a lot can change by 2013, trades, free agents, prospect development, so it is 110% useless to sit here and say well in 2013 we won't be able to compete and max out in the low 80's for wins. Just think back to this time two seasons ago, did you think when you were going through what the 2011 Brewers would be like that the team would have Greinke, Marcum, Wolf in the rotation? Axford would be our closer? McGehee would be going into his third season as the Brewers starting 3rd baseman (2 1/2 yrs)? Gomez and Dickerson in CF? Lucroy not Salome the everyday catcher? I am guessing not. What matters now and next year is we have enough upper level talent to give us needed depth in case of injuries, even if they are not superstars. Our system is young, in two seasons it will look a hell of a lot better with these guys being in AA & AAA over R+, A, A+. Our system is not an issue now or who knows could be a strength in 2013