Jim Callis: Brewers have the worst minor league system in baseball

[Flood Pants]

Organizational rankings are based on the number of potential stars in the system, and there's not many people that would say there are any potential stars in the Milwaukee system that are still considered prospects. There are plenty of guys who could be solid contributors or bench players if everything goes well, but every organization has those types.

I think this sums it up well. Our farm system isn't devoid of future major league talent, but there really isn't a single player who projects to be a future star. Sure, surprises can pop up, but we shouldn't expect any of our current prospects to fill a full time major league spot in the near future. It's a bonus if they do, but not certain.

 

Baseball Prospectus featured the Brewers in their Future Shock series recently. Here's the link: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=12616 According to their five-star scale (realizing that projecting prospects isn't really their specialty), we have no prospects above three stars. And I think that's reasonable.

 

It's very possible that the Brewers have the worst minor league system at this point in time, but it's unlikely to last.

[logan82]

Has Houston ignored their farm system or is it more a result of trading away guys thinking they can make a big run to get into the playoffs almost every single year?

[DHonks]

Flood Pants, thanks for the link...I know I've seen it before, but it is interesting to see the 2008 and 2009 lists and realize how our prospects haven't panned out.

 

We've gotten little-to-no big league production from LaPorta, Bryson, Zack Jackson, Salome, Jeffress, Parra, Green, Gamel, Escobar, Lawrie, Frederickson, Adams, Lintz, Odorizzi, Gindl, Brantley, etc. Sure some of them have been used in trades, but it has hurt that all have not fulfilled their potential WITH the Brewers. And, of course, trading minor leaguers for big leaguers will weaken our system...so some of this is natural.

[ramssuperbowl99]

Why? What does the past 5-7 years have anything to do with the Brewers' current farm system? I guess I could see the stance that the Brewers have done a good job developing talent, so they might get a little more out of this group of prospects than, say, the Pirates, but that has nothing to do with where the farm system currently stands and should have no impact on the ranking. You aren't ranking the organization, you're ranking the players within the organization.

 

But they are ranking the organizations, as he said the Brewers have the worst system in all of baseball. And there isn't a formula to come up with those lists, as they are purely subjective. How a team does developing talent IMO should play a large part in ranking the systems talent-wise.

 

Igor brought up a good example with the Braves. There have been some years where their system is lean on talent, but they still are given the benefit of the doubt because they historically have done a better job developing big-league players, even if the players in their system at any given time aren't necessarily impact players.

 

I don't mean to bash BA, because I like their work and have been a long-time subscriber, but they do have their own biases, and those biases play into their subjective rankings. After all, if BP's Kevin Goldstein thinks the Royals went from having the best farm system in all of baseball to arguably the best farm system of all time due to the players acquired in the Greinke trade, obviously there was some good talent given up in Jeffress and Odorizzi. And it doesn't matter where someone ultimately views a player's future, such as Jeffress and Rogers as relievers, Lawrie as a LF, etc., the tools are what should have them ranked. Rogers will still be groomed as a starter (as far as we know at this point in time) and is one of a few very list of players that can reach triple digits.

 

Remember when Callis had Nick Hagadone ranked so highly in the Red Sox system? Most had him pegged as a future reliever as well, but Callis didn't, and was a big reason why the Red Sox were ranked higher than where many to most may have put them (I believe two years ago). Daniel Bard was ranked pretty highly as well that same year, another pitcher that projected as a future reliever (which he is). At the time, that wasn't presented as big of a negative as it is/was with Rogers and Jeffress now.

 

As others have noted, the system still has quite a few players that could contribute at the big-league level in the next 1-2 years, and that also should stand for something. The impact talent is absolutely lacking, but the Brewers should continue to procure talent from within to fill crucial spots on the roster, which is what the system should be doing. I agree that they should be among the worst, but again, there are still plenty of potential big-league contributors sprinkled in the mix, arguably more than a lot of other teams.

I read, "the Brewers have the worst system in all of baseball" as "the Brewers have the worst collection of minor leaguers right now in all of baseball". Maybe that's me reading it incorrectly or maybe I'm naive.

I don't see the "we have lots of guys who could fill out a bench/bullpen" argument as a reason to move the Brewers' system up in the rankings. Guys you mention as possibly valuable players like Schafer, Gindl, Rivas, etc. etc. are the kind of guys that are in every organization. To first approximation, they are replacement players. No real value here. Farm systems are measured based on the above-average regulars they produce - not everyone has to be a star, but mentioning 15 bench players, fringe starters or reliever doesn't improve the system.

I agree with you that Callis isn't without his biases - they guy hails from Chicago, of course he isn't all over any Milwaukee product. Whether the Brewers actually have the 30 best farm system in baseball is true or not is subject to opinion. We are probably just in the bottom tier of systems, which could be anywhere from 24-30 or so. And I agree with you that guys like Callis and KLaw tend to overrate Red Sox prospects (either to sell to the Red Sox/Yankees fanbases or because those are the guys who are talked about most).

The point of all of this is that I don't think we can just give the Brewers credit for having a better minor league system than they do because they've developed talent. First, the system is top heavy with pitching, and the Brewers have developed 1 capable MLB pitcher they drafted since Ben Sheets. So, if we are really considering how teams develop talent, I'd actually say the Brewers would suffer in rankings. Second, the guys who we developed were elite prospects - Fielder, Weeks, Braun, Gallardo, Hardy, Escobar, Lawrie, LaPorta, etc. etc. were all major signings or top draft picks.

By the way, I actually think that after two top 15 picks, the Brewers are a few breakout seasons away from a top 15-20 type system. I think all of these guys could explode on the scene:

Max Walla

D'Vontrey Richardson

Cody Scarpetta

Brooks Hall

Cameron Garfield

That's some upside right there, and if just 2-3 of those guys show up in a big way, the Brewers will be much better off come 2012.

 

[YoungGeezy]

By the way, I actually think that after two top 15 picks, the Brewers are a few breakout seasons away from a top 15-20 type system. I think all of these guys could explode on the scene:

Max Walla

D'Vontrey Richardson

Cody Scarpetta

Brooks Hall

Cameron Garfield

That's some upside right there, and if just 2-3 of those guys show up in a big way, the Brewers will be much better off come 2012.

 

 

Ugh, stole pretty much the words I was about to write! haha But your 100% right not two mention outside Fielder and some relief pitchers the Brewers system has two full years to develop this young/inexperienced group before they will actually need to be ready to compete by 2013-2014. It's hard to consider a player a legit prospect until they have had success at AA or at least 2 years of success above rookie ball (Wisconsin and BC). For our system we do not have much that meet that critera.

 

(If you don't feel like reading everything the last paragraph wraps it all up and shows my main point)

 

List of good prospects who only have one full baseball season or less under their belt above rookie ball:

 

23 years old or will by end of season:

Full Season Experience: Del Howell, Kyle Heckathorn, D'Vontray Richardson, and Kentrail Davis, Khris Davis, Eric Arnett

Only Rookie ball: Thomas Keeling, Austin Ross, Cody Hawn, Brian Garman, Jason Rogers

 

22 years old or will be by end of season

Full Season Experience: Scooter Gennett, Cutter Dykstra (only 99 in 09')

Only Rookie ball: Jimmy Nelson, Tyler Thornburg, Mike Miller, Tyler Cravy, Rafael Neda, Shea Vucinich, Mike Walker

21 years old or will be by end of season

Full Season Experience: Hunter Morris, Maverick Lasker, Nick Bucci

Only Rookie ball: Brooks Hall, Seth Lintz, Stosh Wawrzasek, Ken Allison, Mike White, Ronny Puello(OF), Jose Garcia(OF)

 

20 years old or will be by end of season

Full Season Experience: Cameron Garfield

Only Rookie ball: Tyler Roberts, Max Walla, Demetrius McKelvie, Hitaniel Arias(1B), Ruben Sanchez(OF), Yonki Hernandez(2B)

 

19 years old or will be by end of season

Only Rookie ball or DSL: Yadiel Rivera (SS), Ronald Johnson, Jeffrey Saba (SP), Eliezer Montano (SP), Carlos Sosa (RP), Andres Martinez (SS),

 

18 years old or will be by end of season

Only Rookie ball OR DSL: Joel Pierce, Jose Pena (OF), Carlos Pena ©, Osmel Perez (SP), Jhonathon Diaz ©, Jorge De La Cruz(3B)

 

*Not many 18 and 19 year olds due to the college heavy draft in 2010

 

Now some of these guys like the Davis's, Gennett, and Heckathorn made a big splash this year and moved up our boards but need to have another big showing this season in order to really get respect from people at Baseball America or others outside of Brewer Nation. (They usually only care if you were a top pick when your in A ball in terms of prospect rankings or a big international signee.)

 

Guys like Del Howell, Eric Arnett, D'Vo Richardson, Cameron Garfield just didn't have great season, does that mean they will never be big prospects or future Brewers, no, it's one season and first full season in their pro careers. Who knows Garfield's bat may catch up to his D, Richardson will close some of those holes in his swing and play like he did in August, Howell and Arnett may turn it around and show why they were so highly regarded out of college and all of a sudden they start to get attention.

 

Then for those who have never played above rookie ball, who knows how they will perform once they start to move up but there is still a bunch of potential there who could turn into really good prospects. (Hall, Walla, Nelson, Thornburg, Hawn, Pierce and etc)

 

Also can't forget players like Anundsen, Schaefer, Brownstein, Seidel (missed a good chunk), Wooten, Chad Stang and other prospects who have missed most of season with injuries. All can bounce back and have breakout seasons...(Erik Komatsu had monster season in 08' in Helena, missed almost all 09' and now is a top 10-15 prospect in system after great 10' season in BC.

 

All of this writing to get to my main point, the Brewers system is a huge question mark because outside of the select few (Rogers, Gamel, Rivas, Gindl, Green, Farris, and Peralta) no players have made it to or have had success at the AA level, most haven't even seen the field in Advanced A yet. Until these players make it up to and have success at these higher levels no one will give them credit. Komatsu, Schaefer, Scarpetta are all in that limbo stage right now where they had their lower level success but won't be consider legit MLB prospects until they prove it this season. So right now the system is bare, empty and seems like a black hole but by the end of the 2011 season it will start to look better with many of the prospects having played more than one full season and by the the end of 2012 should seem much better and more deep with the majority of these inexperienced players now having played in AAA, AA, and A+. 2 top 15 picks never hurts eighter!

[Beast Light]

Well, if it's true that the Brewers were ranked 30th even before the Greinke trade, then I think it makes that trade look that much more impressive.

I think that's a really good point.

 

The Brewers have had a highly touted farm system for what seems like the past 10 years. Not to get off topic, but what has that amounted to? In my opinion, not much. Lets be honest, when we had guys like Hall, Hardy, Hendrickson, Krynzel, Hart, Fielder, Braun, Eveland, Parra, etc. all working their way to the bigs, we expected the end result to be more than barely making it into the playoffs with the wild card and winning just one game before being booted. Was I glad they made it to the playoffs? Of course, but when you step back and look at the big picture, I think we all expected more.

 

While the minor league system may be very weak, the Brewers now have what I believe will be a great major league team and that has been the goal all along. Greinke, Gallardo, Marcum, and Wolf? Now that is something to be excited about, especially when you consider their lineup. Also, like Patrick said, if the Brewers farm system was really ranked 30th in the league ..than the Greinke deal must have been a steal.

 

 

[Tbadder]

I think this pretty much shows that it doesn't matter what Baseball America thinks about anyone's minor league system. The only guys who matter are other teams. Maybe Kansas City saw our collection of youngsters in a much better light. I'd rather impress the other teams in the MLB than BA.

 

On the other hand I don't necessarily disagree with them overall, but I also wouldn't be too worried as it only takes two years turn things around.

[Boy Jeenius]

I looks to me that we'll be back to the days where we were debating who is the next Brewer, Khalid Balouli or Callix Crabbe? Or extolling the virtues of Steve Moss. Gawd, those were desperate times. I guess we look forward to the next 2 drafts and get fired up again. Sure hope Hoffman signs.

[Kricket755]

I think this pretty much shows that it doesn't matter what Baseball America thinks about anyone's minor league system. The only guys who matter are other teams. Maybe Kansas City saw our collection of youngsters in a much better light. I'd rather impress the other teams in the MLB than BA.

 

On the other hand I don't necessarily disagree with them overall, but I also wouldn't be too worried as it only takes two years turn things around.

I am not sure the trade with K.C. means that they were overly impressed with the system as a whole. Two of the guys in the trade were going to be starters on the major league squad next year for us. They were not considered part of the system. Giving up a couple of everday major league ready players was a big part of the deal. Add in the fact that we traded 2 of our top 4 prosepcts in the deal(even in a poor system, the top handful of guys still have value), and I don't think that the trade gives any evidence that our system wasn't near the bottom even before the trade took place.

 

[SenatorShriv]

I looks to me that we'll be back to the days where we were debating who is the next Brewer, Khalid Balouli or Callix Crabbe? Or extolling the virtues of Steve Moss. Gawd, those were desperate times. I guess we look forward to the next 2 drafts and get fired up again. Sure hope Hoffman signs.

 

 

 

 

I would rather go back to those days than the days of debateing Kinney vs Franklin on the MLB roster.

[The Truth]

I don't think Mark Rogers is highly regarded enough.

 

I was very impressed by Rogers at the end of last season and I think if he can overcome some control issues he could be a #3 MLB starter in 2012. Rivas, also, has alot of potential...

[crewcrazy]

Rogers would get more respect if he didn't have such a long injury history, and a delivery that many scouts seem to think guarantees he'll get hurt again in the future. When there's that perception that a guy only has so many pitches left in his arm, he's not going to get a lot of hype on offseason prospect lists. I think everyone will acknowledge that the stuff is there.

[AdvantageSchneider]

Does it matter? We're going for it this year, and to a certain extent next year. The only downside to that ranking is that it means we probably don't have anything other than Gamel that we could use as trade bait for a mid-year acquisition if we need something. There is plenty of time to rebuild the farm system in the next two years.

Yes it does matter to some extent. If you have a highly ranked farm system you can trade prospects for better players than you can if you have a perceived bad farm system.

I thought we had the #30 ranked minor leagues before the ZG trade and we were still able to trade for ZG.

 

[endaround]

By trading away 2 players who weren't part of the farm system. Escobar has over a year of service time. Cain got over 150 PAs.

[GAME05]

when you're dealing with mid- to low-budget teams, the quality of the farm system is indirectly proportional to the quality of the major league club.

 

at least we have Marcum and Greinke through 2012. with a lot of first-round draft picks coming up, maybe that will only mean one or two years of futility before we see a few blue-chippers in AAA, ready to make the jump.

[PrinceFielderx1]

Rogers would get more respect if he didn't have such a long injury history, and a delivery that many scouts seem to think guarantees he'll get hurt again in the future. When there's that perception that a guy only has so many pitches left in his arm, he's not going to get a lot of hype on offseason prospect lists. I think everyone will acknowledge that the stuff is there.

I'd like to see a quote from some scouts that say Rogers is Guaranteed to get injured again due to his mechanics. Until then I'm forced to assume he is healthy after pitching 126IP last season and the fact that he has his velocity back. I understand when you have bad mechanics you are more likely to get injured, but that doesn't guarantee he will and it doesn't mean we should be expecting it. There is a big difference between the two statements. I'm in the camp that says that Rogers is very underrated going into next season. I think he will make a big impact with the Brewers and surprise many.

[CheezWizHed]

It maybe true that we have one of the lowest ranked systems in the MLB, but its been a long time since our top two MiLB systems had the depth of:

 

AAA: Rogers, Rivas, Fiers, Dillard and Butler

AA: Scarpetta, Peralta, Lamontagne, Merklinger, Sanchez

 

Depending on how you rank them, there are 3-4 potential #2-3 SPs and 2-3 potential #4-5 SPs and the rest have bullpen potential. Yes, potential and $25 will get you a small Starbucks coffee, but that sure beats the MiLB FAs we normally have to sign to round out our pitching rotations at those levels.

 

Generally, we have one high end prospect or a couple decent prospects, but IMO the top three of both those rotations are virtual locks to make the MLB at some point (save for injury).

[TooLiveBrew]

when you're dealing with mid- to low-budget teams, the quality of the farm system is indirectly proportional to the quality of the major league club.

 

Not for Tampa it hasn't been.

[colbyjack]

In the latest AskBA, Jim Callis touches on questions about the Royals system and where it stands after the Greinke trade:

 

http://www.baseballameric...ask-ba/2011/2611113.html

 

We haven't begun putting the 2011 Top 100 together, but I think the Royals will at least tie the record. Hosmer, Myers, Moustakas, Lamb and Montgomery all ranked among my 25 best prospects when I did a personal Top 50 for the Handbook. Colon, Duffy, Dwyer and Odorizzi all will make my personal Top 100 and I expect them to make the consensus Baseball America list as well. Crow and Jeffress have a chance, but I think they both may fall short of the final Top 100.

 

If you follow BA you'll know that Odorizzi was previously labelled as a fringe top-100 prospect, and now seems like a sure thing. Jeffress didn't even seem to be a blip on the top 100 list, and now takes the "fringe" tag from Odorizzi. I really don't mean to challenge Jim Callis this much, who I respect quite a bit and have carried several offline conversations with, but this does represent an inconsistency of reporting. What has changed between the end of the season and now that would have changed anything when it comes to prospect evaluation and ranking?

 

Of course, Odorizzi going from the Brewers projected #1 prospect and the Royals #9 prospect is pretty indicative of the difference of systems, and lends support to just how bad the Brewers farm system is.

[TooLiveBrew]

What has changed between the end of the season and now that would have changed anything when it comes to prospect evaluation and ranking?

 

Could it be that he's had to take a closer and more extended look at the guys the Brewers sent to KC since he had to re-evaluate the KC system? Odorizzi has definitely seemed like an overlooked prospect to me thus far.

[sveumrules]

While I'm far from a minor league expert (but more than a casual follower) I do think the weakness of our system is overblown slightly. I've been following Sickels top 20 lists as they've been coming out and I think some other serious contenders for worst minor league system would have to be...

 

Boston (All their prospects are overhyped anyway, Ranaudo at #1 has serious upside but also equally serious questions)

Chicago AL (Sale looks filthy but is probably a bullpen guy and the list falls off quickly after that)

Florida (All glove 3B is their top prospect)

Oakland (Really just a boring list. Sure I'd take Green but only because of our huge hole at SS)

Houston (Lyles is decent then the comes the cliff)

 

Also agree on Odorizzi being underrated. Look at his numbers and look at Casey Kelly's. Had Boston taken Odorizzi and Kelly fell to the Crew and everything afterward happened exactly the same I wonder how much that might have changed their stock as prospects.

[TheCrew07]

Is the idea we've become a bottom tier team really that surprising?

 

We gave up 6.5 years of the best arm in our system in Jeffress.

 

We gave up 6.5 years the best pitching prospect (in my opinion) in our system in Odorizzi.

 

We gave up a player that was in BA's top 30 a year ago in Escobar. Say what you will about him, he played as bad as he could play last year and still provided value, we gave up 5 years of him.

 

We gave up 6 years of a highly under rated player (in my opinion) who happened to be one of my personal favorites in Lo Cain.

 

We gave up 6.5 years of our best option for an impact bat in Lawrie.

 

 

All of that for 2 years of Marcum and Greinke...

 

All the Brewers have done is get older and more expensive... we aren't getting younger and more explosive. Why would we want to resign Greinke and/or Marcum? I like both guys... but look at age, look at how much they will cost, and look at their stuff. Melvin has learned nothing and all he's done is gut the farm system and provide more temporary patches to the rotation to buy himself a contract extension. Sure we'll win more games next year, maybe the year after, then what? All of these moves with minor league players have just shortened the competitive window. I've said it a thousand times, I'm not a win now guy, I want an extremely healthy franchise that can build from within. Obviously I want the MLB team to do well, but my primary concern is getting the franchise straightened out from top to bottom, I would love to be TB and we aren't even close, in fact we're farther away today than we were in October. The teams that get it are trading away these aging and expensive pitchers getting impact talent back creating a talent cycle that can perpetuate on itself. The Brewers keep buying these temporary solutions and we talk about hopefully getting something out of our draft picks. We're on the wrong side of the talent cycle... we should be trading expensive players away, not acquiring them.

 

I'm completely disheartened. Yes there are players I still really like in the minors, everyone who reads this forum knows that I'm a big Rivas and Rogers guy. There are position players to be excited about as well, but my bottom line is impact talent and always has been. Where is the impact talent? Our system had good depth which made me feel really good about it, but when you lop off most of the top 10, all that's left is that quality depth, and there's a wide gulf between being quality minor league depth and being a 3-4 WAR MLB player. While I believe players like Rogers can still be impact MLB players, all of these guys have major warts that need refinement before I'll go out on a limb for them... we knew Gallardo was going to be special, we knew Fielder was going to be special, we knew Braun was going to hit... I'm not comfortable making definitive statements along those lines about anyone we currently have in the system, these young men have quite a bit of work to do.

[Invader3K]

Yeah, or we could have just gone on being mediocre for another couple years, then had to rebuild and hoped to compete before Braun and Gallardo probably leave in FA. So much better than actually taking a legitimate shot at a serious playoff run over the next couple seasons, right?

 

You ask where the impact talent is? In the majors: in the rotation, the bullpen, and the starting lineup. I'd rather have that then continuing to be "OK" in those Baseball America rankings that don't really mean anything in the long run when so many prospects flame out.

[Tedaldtada]

Besides Hellickson, Moore, and Jennings, the TB system looks a lot like ours currently does. And two out of those three have some serious question marks. Lucky for them, they have 11 of the first 60 picks (or something) in this next draft.

[filthyfrog]

All the Brewers have done is get older and more expensive...

...and better.

Sure we'll win more games next year, maybe the year after, then what?

Seriously? I might understand your position if these were three-month or even one-year rentals, but how can you say that getting better for the next two years is a bad thing? 2013 is a long way off. A lot can change by then and a lot of talent can be acquired by then.

All of these moves with minor league players have just shortened the competitive window.

I understand this argument, but I'd say we weren't in a competitive window; we were in a mediocre-to-slightly-above-average window without bringing in Greinke and Marcum. If we had waited for Rogers, Jeffress, and Odorizzi to come around, Fielder and Weeks would have been gone and we'd be stuck in a cycle of perpetually treading water. I'd rather be really good for a couple years and then rebuild than be mediocre for a bunch of years.

I'm not a win now guy, I want an extremely healthy franchise that can build from within.

I want a healthy franchise, too, but I don't think this organization was in position to go on a Braves-like run of dominance. I'd rather win a lot now than win a little later.

 

I'm not going to say we didn't devastate our farm system last month - we did. But the reward was putting together an MLB team that can honestly contend for the next two years. The team definitely needs to restock the system, but let's enjoy the big league club for now.