The right time to deal Axford if Braddock is a/the future closer

[Hate those Rodents]

With Saito, Hawkins, and Braddock still in the back end of the bullpen and many believing Braddock was the future closer for us less than a year ago, might it be wise to max out and sell high on Axford now. After signing Saito today, I have very little worry about our bullpen, especially the backend, even if Axford weren't in the picture. I doubt we make a move of Axford and don't really know what we could get, but I do think we could afford it and potentially would not lose much at the back end of the bullpen while being able to strengthen another area of our team.

[wishicouldhit]

I understand your point of view but the brewers are going for it this year. Also there are plenty of decent closers on the market right now so i dont think the return would be that impressive.

[tigerbrew]

I feel really uneasy if Braddock is the closer in 2011, he doesn't seem to have the offspeed stuff that Axford has and Axford throws harder too. If I've to trade one of them, I prefer to trade Braddock instead. But right now the guy I very much like to trade away is Hawkins.

[mothershipconnection]

If someone will give us a good young SS for Axford and Betancourt, maybe you look at is real hard, but I doubt the potential return would really be that good right now. I don't think teams will look at him as anything near a top-flight closer yet due to his short track record, so he may very well have much more value to a contending Brewers team than anyone would give up.

[MNBrew]

I'm not sure it'd be the right move, but with Jose Reyes a FA at the end of the year, he might be a worthy target for Axford/plus deal. And the Mets are still the Mets, so they just might do it if the right short-sighted circumstances come into play.

[TooLiveBrew]

I'd really like to see the Brewers adopt selling high on relievers as an org. strategy (if that's possible). I don't believe the concept of the Closer's Mentality™ carries much (or any) importance. I'd like to see the Brewers exploit the many organizations around baseball that overvalue the closer role, and Axford's cheap salary could make him pretty valuable to the right team.

 

That said, I don't think this is the time to move Axford. The Brewers are all-in on 2011, and he probably has more value this season to just be on the 25-man roster. I guess it would all depend on what the Crew could get in return (as with any potential trade), though.

[Hate those Rodents]

The Orioles are looking hard at Kevin Gregg, who I think is a below average closer and a bit costly and older. I know it won't happen, but I gotta believe the O's would have a TON of interest in obtaining both Fielder and Axford from us. I'd love to be able to get Adam Jones as a starting point in a deal for those two. Then sign Derrick Lee.

And I know we discussed a Fielder-Jones deal a week or two ago in a thread, but not really around Axford (for whom it appears Baltimore would probably have a ton of interest in).

[Warning Track Power]

The Orioles are looking hard at Kevin Gregg, who I think is a below average closer and a bit costly and older. I know it won't happen, but I gotta believe the O's would have a TON of interest in obtaining both Fielder and Axford from us. I'd love to be able to get Adam Jones as a starting point in a deal for those two. Then sign Derrick Lee.

And I know we discussed a Fielder-Jones deal a week or two ago in a thread, but not really around Axford (for whom it appears Baltimore would probably have a ton of interest in).

 

 

If Jones were offered for Axford I'd have to think Doug Melvin wouldn't let Andy McPhail hang up the phone before the deal was finalized. Saito becomes the closer with Braddock waiting in the wings.

[endaround]

Neither Saito or Braddock can likely go two days in a row. Hard for either to close.

[jackalope02ca]

Normally I'd be in favour of at least seeing what's out there. With the Brewers going all in for this year though I wouldn't even think about it. I'm thinking the Mets would be more interested in a package including Mark Rogers for Reyes at the deadline and if we are in it then and the Mets would do it I hope Doug goes for it.

[dadofandrew]

Saito and Braddock both pitched consecutive days last year. They may need to be monitored a bit, but they are far from being babied.

[paul253]

With the Brewers going all in for this year though I wouldn't even think about it.

 

Adam Jones would be an upgrade at a key position. The closer role could be filled by any number of guys. If Jones for Axford was offered I'd take it in a heartbeat.

[DHonks]

I don't know why you'd want to destabilize the bullpen. At this point I see Parra as likely to close as Braddock in 2011...both might get two saves, but Axford is getting the bulk

[The Truth]

I'm not convinced Braddock has the long-term durability to be a closer. The Brewers are going for it this year, no way do you deal Axford. We need all the pitching we can get (and keep!)

[CheezWizHed]

I'm scratching my head a bit over this one. Over the last few years, there was mass wailing at the idea of signing the next old, over-priced closer. Some worked out, some didn't, but all were expensive.

 

Now we have Ax on the cheap for the next few years. I would wait at least until he is in arby before trading him (insert usual caveat for big WOW deal, which never really happens).

 

I realize people are still stung by the whole Turnbow turn-around, but come on...

[greeg35]

I think the two things you point out are consistent. Closers can come from anywhere; but are overvalued by the league because of the "closer" label. Therefore, you should both not sign or give up much for expensive ones and take advantage of the league wide overvalue of "closers" that you have by trading them when the time/deal is right.

That said, i would want a lot in return for the Ax man since he's pre-arby and has a sweet mustache

[Invader3K]

Axford really isn't established enough to bring a really decent return in a trade right now. If he has another great season and some other team is desperate, then fine. Otherwise you ride him out while he's cheap and hope he stays consistent. Going back to having an older and overpaid bullpen would be terrible for this franchise right now. I also agree that I can't see Braddock cutting it as a closer long term.

[danzig6767]

With the Brewers going all in for this year though I wouldn't even think about it.

 

Adam Jones would be an upgrade at a key position. The closer role could be filled by any number of guys. If Jones for Axford was offered I'd take it in a heartbeat.

But Baltimore wouldn't trade Jones for Axford.

 

Unless someone is talking about an Albert Pujols type of player, nobody is going to be untouchable, so of course the Brewers would be smart to trade Axford if the right offer came along. That said, Ax was pretty dominant last season, is cheap for awhile, and his stuff is legit good, he wasn't getting outs largely by hit balls just finding a ton of gloves. He also pitched strong for a closer by often going more than a single inning.

 

Axford though only has last year as a track record of success in the majors for other GM's to look back on and i'm guessing that would limit the kind of offers Doug would receive. Mix in that that management has invested so much into this coming season, i think the performance of the bullpen will have a fairly significant impact as to whether team goals are reached. I'd want quite a bit in return for Axford and it's not just because he has the closer role. Regardless if Axford was closing games or was the main 8th inning guy while Saito closed games, having a strong duo/trio of late inning guys to not blow many close games with a lead or late tie games is important for any teams in tight playoff races. We saw loud and clear early last season just how devastating it is when the back end of your pen is blowing lots of games. Then the fact that Axford makes pocket change makes me hold him in higher regard than some of you seem to.

 

After this season though, if Axford builds on last season and has another good year which should increase his value in the eyes of other GM's by being more proven in the bigs, then i'd be more receptive to seeing what he could fetch, especially after losing Prince.

[JohnBriggs12]

I'm scratching my head a bit over this one. Over the last few years, there was mass wailing at the idea of signing the next old, over-priced closer. Some worked out, some didn't, but all were expensive.

 

Now we have Ax on the cheap for the next few years. I would wait at least until he is in arby before trading him (insert usual caveat for big WOW deal, which never really happens).

 

I realize people are still stung by the whole Turnbow turn-around, but come on...

Turnbow always struck me as a bit of an immature flake.. I think that appealed to many people who watched "Major League" one too many times, but Axford seems much more serious, professional and in control. I don't see the Axford losing it like that.

 

Rolling the dice on another young guy with no closing experience is far too risky.

[endaround]

Turnbow wasn't a flake. He was a marginal guy with a killer arm that put it together for one season. There are tons of those. Axford has a better pedigree in that his control while incredibly spotty was never at the Turnbow wild pitch level. But he could just lose his control in time as well.

[Invader3K]

I could be mistaken, but I think Axford's mechanics seem better than Turnbow's. I suspect Axford will be less susceptible to melt downs like Turnbow was.

[HiAndTight]

I'd really like to see the Brewers adopt selling high on relievers as an org. strategy (if that's possible). I don't believe the concept of the Closer's Mentality™ carries much (or any) importance. I'd like to see the Brewers exploit the many organizations around baseball that overvalue the closer role, and Axford's cheap salary could make him pretty valuable to the right team.

 

That said, I don't think this is the time to move Axford. The Brewers are all-in on 2011, and he probably has more value this season to just be on the 25-man roster. I guess it would all depend on what the Crew could get in return (as with any potential trade), though.

I used to be of the belief that closers were overrated, but being able to lock down the 9th inning is pretty damn big and not every pitcher can do it. I question that Axford will be able to do it and worry he may be another Turnbow type, but we'll see.

[TooLiveBrew]

I don't think locking down the 9th is any different from locking down the 7th or 8th. I think you need talented relief pitchers with live arms, but I don't think some just have a mystical power that others don't. Mo Rivera isn't a great closer because he dominates the 9th inning, he's a great closer because he has unbelievable stuff & command. He just happens to get used in the 9th inning most often because baseball invented a stat that made it appear more important than it actually is (imo).

 

I think Axford absolutely has the stuff & makeup to continue to be a relief ace caliber pitcher. But I think Braddock does too, along with Saito.

[greeg35]

I don't think locking down the 9th is any different from locking down the 7th or 8th.

 

 

agree 100%. I've pretty much come around to thinking the only extra value a "closer" has is that other people think they are more valuable. The key is not getting sucked into that mentality yourself and taking advantage of others' perceptions when the time is right.

[danzig6767]

I don't think locking down the 9th is any different from locking down the 7th or 8th. I think you need talented relief pitchers with live arms, but I don't think some just have a mystical power that others don't. Mo Rivera isn't a great closer because he dominates the 9th inning, he's a great closer because he has unbelievable stuff & command. He just happens to get used in the 9th inning most often because baseball invented a stat that made it appear more important than it actually is (imo).

 

I think Axford absolutely has the stuff & makeup to continue to be a relief ace caliber pitcher. But I think Braddock does too, along with Saito.

In general i agree with you when it comes to closer and the closer role. That said, while i agree with you that in general great closers are that more so by great stuff than socalled nerves of steel, i do think there will be some guys who do let the pressure of that final inning get to them, especially if after say blowing two games in a short time frame.

 

Of course in some games across the league pretty much each night, a team with only a 1-2 run lead in the 8th will bring in their "setup" man who has to face the heart of the other team's lineup while in the 9th the closer ends up facing a lesser part of the lineup, yet the closer gets the more glamorous save stat. The stat itself is dumb, particularly that a closer still can get a save for giving up two runs in an inning, just so long as they were up by three.

 

Why i value Axford so much is that i do believe that it's usually very hard to win a playoff berth for any team if they aren't good in the back end of their pen. Those main 3-4 guys who come into so many close games around the 7th, 8th, and 9th inning. Blowing an abnormal amount of very close games were you lead or are tied late will not only hurt your record in playoff races that often are decided by a single game or two, it has to be devastating mentally.

 

Axford being in place not only gives the Brewers a closer with great stuff who can pitch more than just one inning, it allows all three of Braddock, Saito, and hopefully a healthy/effective Hawkins to handle the high leverage 7th/8th innings of close games. Remove Axford and i feel much less secure about the back end of the pen, especially considering Saito will be 41 next month, he had some injury issues last year, and Braddock has had injuries in the minors. Trade Axford and have any of Saito/Braddock/Hawkins get hurt, suddenly that back end up of the pen could get very thin and shaky.