Concerns About the Bullpen?

[wcswimmer712]

Is anyone else concerned about the bullpen? I'm guessing our pen will look like this: Axford, Braddock, Loe, Hawkins, Parra, Stetter, and Green/Mercedes/McClendon. Granted, Axford was as stable as ever last year, I'm not feeling the rest of our staff...

• Outside of '10, Kameron Loe has logged 343 Innings with a 1.52 WHIP, 10.4 H/9, 3.2 BB/9, 4.7 K/9, 4.47 ERA, and 97 ERA+. Quite average. Just like Todd Coffey did last year, I'm expecting Loe to regress back to his career norms. Especially with the downgraded defense now at SS with the acquisition of Yuniesky Betancourt.
• Braddock has the stuff and potential to be lights out, but control issues and his "injury-prone" label have me hesitant to rely on him.
• Hawkins can be quite good when healthy, but I can't get images of him blowing games early in the season (pre-injury) out of my head.
• Parra, well, see: Braddock.
• Stetter was a reliable LOOGY from '08-'09, but for some reason lost all semblance of a good pitcher (6.86 ERA in 41 AAA innings, 1.52 WHIP, 10 H/9).
• Green doesn't excite me at all, posting a career ERA+ of 97. He seems to be a workhorse, bullpen-filler type.

There are many FA relievers still available that could pose as low-risk/high-reward signs (incentive laden deals): Juan Cruz, Manny Delcarmen, Kelvim Escobar, Kyle Farnsworth, Kevin Gregg (if he'd be willing to set-up Axe), Bob Howry, Chad Qualls, Jon Rauch, Chris Ray, JC Romero, Takashi Saito, and Scot Shields. Signing any of these guys to a cheap, one-year deal would be a huge boost - if they panned out. A 7th-8th-9th combo of Braddock-Shields-Axford or Braddock-Cruz/Escobar-Axford sound pretty nasty.

I think this team is a couple signings away from a playoff-caliber team. A power lefty off the bench for those close games (Russell Branyan?), a glove-first SS (I really like Dodgers SS Chin-Lung Hu - Minor league career slash of .299/.341/.418 with excellent defense), and a lights-out reliever (I like Saito, Shields, Escobar, Cruz as buy-low targets). Right now, we are a very solid team. I think the bullpen and defense will hold us back this year however. Any thoughts?

EDIT: Broxton and Chin-Lung Hu for some sort of package? 2 birds with one stone.

[cadillacjosh]

Most of Kameron Loe's stats were from when he was a starter. He gained a couple of miles of hour since switching to the bullpen. I think a little regression wouldn't be surprising but that sinker is filthy. I think he'll continue to provide ground ball outs at an incredible level. As long as Yuni can get the ball to first.

Hawkins injury started the same time he started blowing games. He lost 4 mph on his fastball and just got tore up. If he's healthy, he'll be good. There's nothing in his career to suggest otherwise.

Your concerns about Braddock are well placed. Here's to hoping he gains some control. Parra turned our pretty alright after finally being put in the bullpen officially. I hope that with a permanent spot he actually responds well. But that's just a hope.

I think our bullpen is pretty solid, but another signing wont hurt. Mark Difelice should be healthy again and he was lights out against righties. His cutter was absolutely dominating.

Scott Shields I don't think is a good choice. He's past 2 years have been really tough to watch. It pains me as a big Angels fan to watch it, he used to be so good.

[endaround]

They tried redoing Stetter's delivery and had him face RHers. He still dominated LHers (minorleaguesplits is down but last I saw I believe his K/9 vs LHers was in the 13 range). Loe is fine if used correctly, ie vs RHers.

[Ennder]

I think the most important thing to know about the bullpen is that it should pitch fewer innings than last year. Having 4 pitchers who can go somewhat deep into games on a regular basis is just huge. The past two seasons we have had way too many pitchers leaving in the 4th and 5th inning and not enough in the 7th inning or later.

[JohnBriggs12]

I believe there should always be concerns about the bullpen, because rarely do they end up looking like they looked on paper in the offseason. To me, right now this pen looks very thin. So maybe by reverse logic it will turn out okay, but I wouldn't wager on it.

 

Their 8th and 9th inning guys include 2 guys who have one year each of major league bullpen success (Axford and Loe), and one who is 38 coming off an injury that kept him out most of last year. The favorite for the 7th inning is a rookie, McClendon. Braddock is a second year guy with talent but not the ability to work a heavy load. All the other candidates are castoffs/injury/performance question marks. The loss of Jeffress, cost them a potential late inning guy that can overpower hitters. While true his control is an issue, guys like Carlos Marmol have had a lot of success despite shaky control with stuff that's overpowering.

 

Bottom line is I don't think they've adequately replaced the 160 or so innings lost from the departures of Coffey, Villanueva and Hoffman. While each of those guys struggled at various points, each also had stretches where they were effective. The hope is the improved rotation will eat up 80-100 or so of those innings. But the better starting pitching could result in a lot more low scoring tense affairs that come down to the pen.

[dadofandrew]

Loe was properly used last year mostly vs. RH's as well. He's simply below average vs LH's, why he has not had much success as a SP.

 

I think Doug will add another RHP with some velocity when the price gets down to 1y/$1.5M for veteran relief help. Since Kintzler and McClendon have options, they'll set them up to use them and be depth at AAA.

[Invader3K]

Note that Melvin has already been picking up a few RHPs this winter. Another one of his "scrap heap" pickups will end up sticking, if I had to wager.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

Yes, at this point I am concerned that aside from atrocious defense this is the team's weak spot. Some good points above though...our starters should assure they are used for 2-3 innings most games versus 4-5. That should help keep the innings in the better relievers hands. Doug still has time to add another arm or two as the price comes down. I am hoping they have a little money left for another decent set up man. I worry their luck could run out on the scrap heap relievers like it did with the old man FA starters.

 

I do wonder if Rogers could play a critical role in the pen before year end.

[jerichoholicninja]

Whatever Doug does he shouldn't throw gobs of cash at it. The bullpen is such a crapshoot he should just sign another 3 or 4 NRI guys and see what happens.

[BREWCREW5]

I think that we have a pretty good team and a pretty good bullpen. Dont forget also that we know have a good starting rotation who should take some pressure from the bullpen.

 

We should all have faith in Melvin and Mark A. that if needed, they will bring in anybody come mid season if need be. We're going for it!

[danzig6767]

Is anyone else concerned about the bullpen? I'm guessing our pen will look like this: Axford, Braddock, Loe, Hawkins, Parra, Stetter, and Green/Mercedes/McClendon. Granted, Axford was as stable as ever last year, I'm not feeling the rest of our staff...

• Outside of '10, Kameron Loe has logged 343 Innings with a 1.52 WHIP, 10.4 H/9, 3.2 BB/9, 4.7 K/9, 4.47 ERA, and 97 ERA+. Quite average. Just like Todd Coffey did last year, I'm expecting Loe to regress back to his career norms. Especially with the downgraded defense now at SS with the acquisition of Yuniesky Betancourt.
• Braddock has the stuff and potential to be lights out, but control issues and his "injury-prone" label have me hesitant to rely on him.
• Hawkins can be quite good when healthy, but I can't get images of him blowing games early in the season (pre-injury) out of my head.
• Parra, well, see: Braddock.
• Stetter was a reliable LOOGY from '08-'09, but for some reason lost all semblance of a good pitcher (6.86 ERA in 41 AAA innings, 1.52 WHIP, 10 H/9).
• Green doesn't excite me at all, posting a career ERA+ of 97. He seems to be a workhorse, bullpen-filler type.

There are many FA relievers still available that could pose as low-risk/high-reward signs (incentive laden deals): Juan Cruz, Manny Delcarmen, Kelvim Escobar, Kyle Farnsworth, Kevin Gregg (if he'd be willing to set-up Axe), Bob Howry, Chad Qualls, Jon Rauch, Chris Ray, JC Romero, Takashi Saito, and Scot Shields. Signing any of these guys to a cheap, one-year deal would be a huge boost - if they panned out. A 7th-8th-9th combo of Braddock-Shields-Axford or Braddock-Cruz/Escobar-Axford sound pretty nasty.

I think this team is a couple signings away from a playoff-caliber team. A power lefty off the bench for those close games (Russell Branyan?), a glove-first SS (I really like Dodgers SS Chin-Lung Hu - Minor league career slash of .299/.341/.418 with excellent defense), and a lights-out reliever (I like Saito, Shields, Escobar, Cruz as buy-low targets). Right now, we are a very solid team. I think the bullpen and defense will hold us back this year however. Any thoughts?

EDIT: Broxton and Chin-Lung Hu for some sort of package? 2 birds with one stone.

Juan Cruz is a guy that i believe is now healthy and if so, i'd love if Doug could bring him in on some low salary contract with incentives. He struggled in 2009 and mabe having his shoulder cleaned out for a cyst has hurt his velocity quite a bit, but in 2007 and 2008, he was a very hard to hit relief pitcher for Arizona with a great BAA and K/9 ratio.

 

Takashi Saito had great numbers for the Braves last year in 54 innings. A 2.83ERA/1.07WHIP/.203BAA/69K's, but he is 41 and was bothered by shoulder tendinitis towards the end of the year. If he signed for cheap, that might add a very reliable set-up guy.

 

Both guys may be forced to take either a non-guaranteed offer like a spring training invite or a low salary incentive laden one year deal, but if their health held up, could prove to be a very effective bargain.

[uwisfan]

yeah, I have to think Rogers is going to play somewhere on the team. If Narveson holds and there are no injuries, I can see Rogers used in long relief or possibly as a setup man. But if healthy and he continues to improve as we've seen to date, I don't see why he won't be used somewhere.

[jhart05]

I don't think there are too many teams in the majors that do not have concerns about their pen.

[logan82]

Rogers probably spends most of the year in AAA building up his innings so he can be ready in 2012.

[Baldkin]

Axford, Loe, Braddock, Hawkins, Parra. That's 5 solid arms in the bullpen. I think Braddock is going to be really, really good this year. With him and Loe, Ronny can bring in whomever fits to face who is due up the next inning. I don't think he'll be a "8th inning guy" type. He'll be a, "Two lefties are coming up, let's go with Braddock." At least, that's my hope.

 

Throw in Stetter as a LOOGY (so Braddock doesn't have to do it), and you've got another step forward.

[igor67]

It's not quite as good looking as when Jeffress was still out there, but I'd argue one of the biggest virtues of the bullpen is that it doesn't have "the guy". Bullpen arms even the pretty good ones have bad stretches, and I think it's a virtue for a manager to be able to quickly de-leverage guys who aren't performing. Rather than continue to trot them out in their roles. Or even better if a guy ain't go ti one day give him the hook before he coughs it up. That said there is a nice mix of guys with some experience out there, and a number of guys seemingly you can shuttle back and forth for depth. Even Parra seemed to be finding his stuff out there. And with the 3 aces, a top 3 bullpen of Axford, Braddock, and Parra pitching like his stuff says he should that's a pretty good mix of run prevention.

[Invader3K]

The way I look at it is that so much hinged on Trevor Hoffman last year, and when he failed at the start of the season, it really screwed things up. This year, while Axford is slotted in as the closer, they have other guys that could probably reliably slot in without majorly shaking things up.

[davego]

Ender makes a great point; my limited baseball knowledge seems to tell me the best pens are the one that are used the least.

[reillymcshane]

Word is that Takashi Saito is going to sign with the Brewers. Here's the thread on the rumor:

 

http://forum.brewerfan.net/viewtopic.php?t=23959

 

That would add another nice arm to the team - even if the guy will be 41. He was great last year for Atlanta.

[Nader Raider Tim]

Saito is an amazing pickup. When he's healthy he's been awesome for pretty much his entire career. Love this addition, can't wait to see what Melvin does to upgrade SS now. (Perhaps wishfull thinking but this has been an almost dream off season.)

[MNBrew]

Word is that Takashi Saito is going to sign with the Brewers. Here's the thread on the rumor:

 

http://forum.brewerfan.net/viewtopic.php?t=23959

 

That would add another nice arm to the team - even if the guy will be 41. He was great last year for Atlanta.

I like the idea, but I'll hold off on believing it 'til it's for real.

 

EDIT: Maybe it has happened, per this Ken Rosenthal TWEET.

[bigredrobbo]

I had concerns about the bullpen - now, with the Saito signing, I have fewer. I'm hoping that the biggest concern we have about the bullpen this season is that starters are going too deep into games and some of them need more work!

[reillymcshane]

Axford, Braddock, Loe, Parra, Saito, Hawkins all seem like locks. That leaves one spot open for Kintzler, McClendon, Green. Maybe DeFelice or Stetter. Someone is bound to be hurt, so the depth is great. I like that the team is looking at high strikeout guys - Axford, Braddock, Parra, Saito all struck out more than a batter an inning. And Kintzler and Mark Rogers offer the same type of player (should the team use Rogers out of the pen this year). We need that with our mediocre defense.

 

If I wanted to take a flyer on a guy, Juan Cruz always interested me. The guy simply could bring the heat. Don't know how he is now after missing most of last year.

 

These guys do have something to prove - Axford and Loe started the season in the minors. Parra was good in the pen, but sucked in the rotation. You just hope he can keep it up. And Hawkins and Saito have some injuries and age issues. But relievers are always a crap shoot. I hate overspending for them, and this bullpen can be had for around $11-12 million. That's the way to make a pen. One guy getting hurt or having a bad year in the pen won't ruin the group.

[TooLiveBrew]

The Brewers' pen is in great shape right now. I liked the group of players out there already, but adding Saito is just fantastic.

[danzig6767]

The Brewers' pen is in great shape right now. I liked the group of players out there already, but adding Saito is just fantastic.

What weird timing. Here i was reading/posting in this thread yesterday and of the guys the OP listed as free agents, Saito was the guy who stuck out most to me if Doug could sign him cheap with some incentives. Never though did i think Melvin would actually try to acquire Saito and then bam, the next day i come on here and see Doug not only was talking to Saito, he signed him.

 

If Hawkins can have a rebound season, Braddock builds off the success he had last year, and Saito stays healthy, the back end up the pen could be outstanding. Plus, with the improved rotation being able to eat more innings, an older guy like Saito shouldn't have to pitch that often in garbage situations because a starter couldn't go more than 4-5 innings.