Jonathan Lucroy: Year 2

[chadomac]

I decided to start this discussion after posting in the Greinke thread. I think Lucroy was touted as a good hitting catcher that needed to improve defensively. I think what we got last year was a pretty decent defensive catcher that didn't hit at the level that he's able to. Being 24 and all of a sudden being the starting catcher of a major league team is probably difficult to adjust to.

 

What do you guys expect out of Lucroy this coming year? Will he improve offensively and/or defensively? I really wouldn't be surprised to see a solid year out of him. I think he showed in the minors that he can hit... he just needs to learn to take more walks and get on base more. I was pleasantly surprised by his defense by years end.

[greeg35]

I think getting stronger will help him a lot offensively. Hopefully he is approaching his off season that way. It seems like the strike zone judgement is there; which is the hard part to learn. He just has to relax, get some more experience, and drive the ball more.

Defensively, I think he has the tools to succeed. The biggest thing in improving there is putting in the effort to get the reps needed to get better. Experience will help too.

I would expect league average defense and offensively an OBP somewhere between .315 and .330, slugging somewhere between .330 and .350 (OPS Somewhere between .645 and .680)

if I looked at ZIPS properly, they had him at .695 ops (with more power than I "scientifically" projected http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif )

[chadomac]

I would agree with that. He definitely lost any signs of power that he showed in the early minor leagues. Hopefully that will come back.

[Tedaldtada]

Lucroy's job on D just got a lot easier with the new pitching staff.

[rluzinski]

Lucroy's ZiPS projection: .256/.318/.377/.695

NL Catchers, 2010: .253/.325/.388/.713

 

I certainly hope that Lucroy can beat that projection. I'm hopeful that he can in the OBP department.

Minor League Stats

Major League Stats

[joepepsi]

I see him as a guy who will hit for a nice batting average but won't be able to replicate the obp he carried in the minors because he doesn't have the power numbers to make major pitchers pitch around him. I'm gonna guess around .270/.335/.390/.725.

[greeg35]

The scary thing as far as OBP is that he didn't really walk much last year. I'm hoping for better this year based on his minor league history; but I'm not sure why that would have just disappeared nor why it would reappear.

[joepepsi]

It's not unusual for young players to have crappy OBP their first couple years in the majors, is it? Gotta figure he's over anxious, too eager to make things happen, hold onto his job. Prince's obp was .347 his rookie year. It jumped to .395 the next season.

[TooLiveBrew]

What do you guys expect out of Lucroy this coming year? Will he improve offensively and/or defensively? I really wouldn't be surprised to see a solid year out of him. I think he showed in the minors that he can hit... he just needs to learn to take more walks and get on base more. I was pleasantly surprised by his defense by years end.

 

My impression of Lucroy last season was that he had decent pitch recognition, and was tough to strike out. However, he didn't have much patience at the plate & too often chased pitches out of the zone to foul them off, instead of taking them for balls. I think honestly that's where his power 'went'. He needs to be more selective, and then not only will he likely draw more BBs & carry a higher OBP, but he should find better pitches to drive (instead of just trying to hit nearly everything).

 

As for his defense, I was pretty underwhelmed. He was better than Kottaras, but that's not saying much. If his offense doesn't improve (I think it will), his defense will have to improve drastically to compensate. His arm looked average, and he was alright at blocking pitches, but I just didn't think he looked like anything special -- solid, though.

[Warning Track Power]

I see him as a guy who will hit for a nice batting average but won't be able to replicate the obp he carried in the minors because he doesn't have the power numbers to make major pitchers pitch around him. I'm gonna guess around .270/.335/.390/.725.

Sign me up now for this out of Lucroy! As long as he isn't a black hole in the #6 spot, and by black hole I mean a .230/.280/.340 line or the like, I'll be happy with his production. I want to see a solid defensive season out of him. That's the most important thing.

 

I'm still hopeful for a Gomez line that reads something like this...

 

[cadillacjosh]

Lucroy really does remind me of a young Jason Kendall. He seems like a real gamer, maybe without the gritty beard and grizzled features, haha. I think he'll be better this year offensively. I'd love to see his walks go up but that usually takes a couple years for most players to truly get good at so I wouldn't be surprised if it stayed around the same. I hope I'm correct and he ends up with a Kendall like career, that would be huge.

[BrewCrewForever]

I think he will be solid on defense again especially with throwing runners out. Hopefully get a little better at blocking balls. I think his offense will improve. He said he was pretty disappointed with his hitting and knows he is a better hitter than he showed in his rookie season. I don't think he will ever be a top offensive catcher, but should be above replacement level.

[crewcrazy]

His minor league numbers seem to indicate that he does have a good eye. If anything, I'd attribute his problems with the bat last year to being a bit overwhelmed by essentially making a jump from Double A to the majors -- he played in 21 games at Triple A, getting only 83 plate appearances there before getting called up. He's working on a steep learning curve, but eventually I think he'll come around...I just don't know if it'll be this year.

[BrewCrewForever]

Yeah I think the jump from AA to the bigs was very hard. And with how much he was focusing on the defense and working with the pitching it seems to be his offensive took a back seat. Hopefully this season he can balance them out.