Trying to put perspective on the recent transactions

[derflotr]

In conversations with Brewers fans I know shortly after the season, everyone was using the same line - "we should just go get Cliff Lee". Not in a serious tone but in that mocking, never-going-to-happen tone which implied that drastically improving the pitching staff was going to be difficult if not near impossible. I think it was common knowledge that the 2011 free agent class of starting pitchers was (is) pretty uninspiring after Lee. So let's say hypothetically Cliff Lee signed on with the Brewers straight away with the contract he was given by Philadelphia.

5 years of Cliff Lee, 32, for $120 million. $11 million in 2011, $21.5 million in 2012, and $25 million each of the remaining 3 seasons with a vesting option for a 6th year at $27.5 million. Perhaps he structures his yearly salary differently based on Milwaukee's situation, but for the time being let's pretend he does. His 2011 salary is very affordable and the Brewers have plenty of flexibility financially to pick up a one-year-rental (maybe two) via free agency or by trade. But after 2011 that flexibility is gone and for at least the next four years the Brewers owe a single pitcher 30% of the payroll. He will get paid more as he gets older with the potential of regression and general wear and tear of a major league pitcher's career. The Brewers will be consistently working around the contracts of Braun, Gallardo, Hart, and Lee to fill out a competitive roster.

However, he is currently as good as any pitcher in the league and will be teamed with Yovani Gallardo for at least 3 seasons, making them pretty strong rotation-wise nearly regardless of who takes the remaining spots. He is one of the faces of the franchise and Milwaukee becomes more attractive for free agents. Pitching prospects at the lower levels have plenty of time to build their arms and the organization can be patient with their progress as their current needs aren't as dire. The Brewers still have a long-term answer at SS in Escobar and should they be too constricted to re-sign Rickie Weeks, Brett Lawrie could be pushed into action by 2012.

Or...

The Brewers do as they have and trade away Lawrie, Escobar, Cain, Jeffress, and Odorizzi (sounds awesome all together, right?) and acquire Shaun Marcum, 29, and Zack Greinke, 27. Both players are in the prime of their career and are making the infamous AL-to-NL switch. Greinke is signed for $13.5 million for the next two seasons and Marcum is due a nice raise in arbitration for 2011. I won't bother to try and guess a number. The Brewers' rotation is excellent in 2011 and 2012 and though I can't imagine it likely they're both extended with the Brewers, I think one of them will be. Even if they both stay they will maybe make up 30% of the payroll and with Gallardo make the Brewers a perennial competitor regardless of who's on the lineup card with Ryan Braun.

But, their farm system takes a significant hit, and they'll be heavily relying on health at the big league level to remain competitive. CF depth is in the low levels of the minor leagues, SS depth doesn't exist, and though there are a number of big league talent arms in the system, they just lost possibly their best in Odorizzi. Their defense may struggle more than expected with Escobar's departure, which could compromise the better pitching they just spent so much to get.

Now I make a lot, and I mean a lot of assumptions here. Feel free to call me out on them. But seeing as you guys are the most educated Brewers fans I know, I want your opinion. Did Doug Melvin actually do better than - what was deemed far too good to be true - sign Cliff Lee?

[RockCoCougars]

I'd take Greinke over Lee any day of the week. He's younger, cheaper and has better stuff. Lee was awesome in 2008, but outside of his remarkably low walk rate, nothing from the past 2 years screams 'Give this guy $120 million'- especially since he will be 37 in that 5th year. In the end, I say that if you have a chance to get an elite arm, you have to do it- even if it means raiding your prospect base somewhat.

[NievesNoNO]

Young talented pitching is the most sought after commodity in baseball and the Brewers now have 3 studs in the prime years of their career. I'd make those moves every single time. Yes, we gave up a lot, but we got what we needed in return. Our offense is good enough right now; we just needed the pitching. If either or both Greinke and Marcum sign extensions the trades are huge wins for the Brewers. As it stands right now I think both are still huge wins. As a small or mid-sized market team your window will be slim and the Brewers have amassed enought talent to have a legitimate shot to win it all IMO... for at least two seasons barring injuries. Unless you're the Yankees or Red Sox, that's probably the best you can ask for. The point of the farm system is to collect enough talent to win at the major league level. While Greinke and Marcum aren't homegrown talent, our system in an indirect way did the job it was supposed to do. I've been a Melvin supporter, but I'm shocked at what has taken place over the last couple weeks. I'd still like to see a different shortstop, but that seems like it might be nit picking at the moment.

 

I thought this was an interesting perspective by Joe Posnanski over at CNNSI.

 

Edit: I guess I never really answered the question, but yes I think Melvin did better than signing Cliff Lee.

[MNBrew]

To answer your question up front, yes, I think the net of this outcome is better than just signing Cliff Lee.

 

Now to ramble...

 

- The rotation's now set for a few years. To boot, Rogers, Rivas, & Peralta could all be knocking on the door to challenge Narveson or at least be potentially strong injury replacements starting this year. Nice rotation depth. In the meantime, the low-minors guys (Heckathorn, Scarpetta, hopefully Arnett, and several others) develop at a comfortable pace.

 

- The bullpen always used to be the place for guys who couldn't make the rotation. We have a strong core for '11 to begin with including a proven closer, and decent depth from the farm both ready now and still in the pipeline. Nice bullpen depth. Always room for good competition & injury fill-ins.

 

- CF depth isn't only in the low minors. Besides the 3 potential CFs on the 40-man already, Schaefer would've been at AA or even AAA last year without his injuries. Gindl was the CF in AA (and made BP's Brewers top 10 prospects -- the only non-pitcher to do so), and Komatsu was the team's minor league Player of the Year. Yes, losing Cain stings, but there's still very nice depth of talent up & down the system!

 

- In those 2 trades, we gave up no OFs, no Cs, & no corner IFs -- only 1 2B, 1 SS, 1 CF (yes, that's kick-butt up-the-middle strength), 1 SP, & 1 reliever. No single position got screwed over. Yes, it was lots of high-end talent. But we still have plenty of other recent high picks coming along, plus 2 first-round picks next year.

 

- Finally, the Brewers' farm system itself didn't take the beating everyone thinks it did. Why? Escobar already was a major league SS. Cain was the Brewers' starting CF the last couple months of '10 and was slated to start there again this year. Ideally, his minor league days were behind him, too. . . . So those two guys WEREN'T minor leaguers at all. Jeffress was also on the roster before last September and had a chance to earn a season-long spot in the 'pen again this year. So whether or not he was a minor leaguer could be debated, too, though hardly as convincingly as Cain & especially Escobar. So the only bona fide 2011 minor leaguers the Brewers gave up were Lawrie & Odorizzi -- big losses, to be sure, but the cupboard just plain isn't bare like most national writers seem to think.

[Warning Track Power]

All good points. The most important thing to realize here is that Cliff Lee or his equivalent FA pitcher were not interested in coming to Milwaukee. It became awfully apparent towards the end of negotiations that he wanted Philly pretty badly and was willing to take less years and money to do so. In order to entice Lee to not go to Philly we'd have likely had to go north of the 7 year $148MM the Yanks offered.

 

I know this is a what-if scenario and scenario #1 looks better for us longterm but like you said, it relies on the assumption Lee would have come to Milwaukee, which I don't think was going to occur. Because of this the Brewers operated in the reality of what they could do and did the absolute best they could do. And who's to say Greinke would turn down that 5Yr/$120MM contract you would've given Lee? Yes we still are out of the prospects, but we also would be giving the 5 year deal to Greinke at age 29, 3 years younger than Lee would be when the deal would go into effect.