Looking ahead: The trade value of Randy Wolf after this season

[JohnBriggs12]

Okay, the rotation for this year is set, though there are still those out there that pine for Capuano, Rogers and heaven forbid Parra over Narveson. I'm not one of them. Lets look at 2012. Lets just say Narveson goes something like 13-11 with a 4.35 ERA this year, well enough to validate his 2010 performance, and Rogers amasses 160 innings at AAA with an ERA around 3, 175 Ks and limits his walks to around 70 and appears ready to start in the majors.

 

Does this free them up to shop Wolf next winter? Keep in mind now that the Cubs got a lot of interest last summer for 2 months of Ted Lilly. Can Wolf get you your 2012 shortstop, or a decent pitching prospect or will his contract be a hindrance?

[Funketown]

I think his contract will prevent the Crew getting anything in return for Wolf. He's on tap for $9.5 million next season and a $1.5 million buyout, assuming his $10 million option won't be exercised. Lilly probably projected to be between .50 and .75 runs per nine better than Wolf, although I believe he was making $12 million next year. At best, I see Wolf being worth his salary, so perhaps it would be possible to dump him for salary relief. I just don't see much coming back to the Brewers, even in the best case scenario.

[reillymcshane]

John,

 

I think this is a fair question. Let's assume the items you note come to happen - Rogers looks ready, Narvy does okay, no one gets hurt, etc.

 

I will also assume Fielder is gone. With this in mind, I don't think having Wolf is cost prohibitive.

 

If Wolf is still pitching well, I'd argue that you keep him. First, the rotation will still be top notch, and the team, even without Fielder (hopefully with Weeks) will have potential to contend.

 

I'd say that you take Rogers and slot him into the bullpen in 2012 in this case. You do this with the knowledge that someone can easily get hurt. Having the quality starting pitching depth will be essential - especially since we will be replacing Fielder with someone else (perhaps Gamel in RF and Hart to 1B, for example). Our hitting won't be as good without Fielder. But we need to improve, and adding a quality pitcher is one way of doing it.

 

Rogers can get some spot starts, or replace someone in the rotation if someone is ineffective or injured. Even in relief, you can get him 80 or 100 innings, and he'll be effective. He can grow into the role of a ML player, and be ready to take a spot in the rotation in 2013. I know there are sometimes concerns about starters becoming relief pitchers - and with Rogers injury history - they may not want to put him in that role. If that's the case, I don't know the answer. Otherwise, I like the idea of Rogers as a safety net for 2012, letting him learn what it's like to face major league hitters, and have him primed for 2013.

 

I'll add that if Wolf regresses in 2011, and Rogers looks ready in 2012, I'd dump Wolf in a heartbeat. Yes, you might have to eat salary. But if he sucks, let's not hang onto him just because he makes a lot of money.

[GoudaBrew]

I will also assume Fielder is gone. With this in mind, I don't think having Wolf is cost prohibitive.

Taking Fielder and Wolf off the books could allow us to extend guys like Weeks, Greinke and Marcum. If Wolf has a nice 2011 I think he could net us a decent replacement at SS for 2012, yes.

[dadofandrew]

Counting on Rogers to throw 160 innings and then repeat that in '12 is likely pie-in-the-sky optimism. If Wolf can duplicate his '10, have a low 4 ERA, and start every 5th day, he might well outperform Marcum or Greinke (or Yo).

[Warning Track Power]

I will also assume Fielder is gone. With this in mind, I don't think having Wolf is cost prohibitive.

Taking Fielder and Wolf off the books could allow us to extend guys like Weeks, Greinke and Marcum. If Wolf has a nice 2011 I think he could net us a decent replacement at SS for 2012, yes.

Words right out of my mouth FIB. Fielder is going to make what, $15MM in arbitration(?) and Wolf is getting $9.5MM in 2012. Gives you $25MM of salary relief which should easily cover Weeks and Marcum per year and leave the rest to give to Greinke to begin his boost from $13.5MM.

 

[CheezWizHed]

Lets just say Narveson goes something like 13-11 with a 4.35 ERA this year

 

I'll just wait for this to happen first. But I'm not holding my breath...

[monty57]

The X-factor here is who we will be able to extend this offseason. If we go into next year with Weeks and Fielder gone and one year left of Greinke, Marcum and Wolf, then we will really have a lot of work to do, and it might make more sense to trade one of the better pitchers (Greinke or Marcum) to bring back a lot of talent. If we are able to extend Weeks and one or both pitchers, than Wolf could very well be dealt. Don't forget, guys like Peralta could be MLB-ready by then as well. It will definitely be interesting to see how Melvin puts the puzzle together beyond this season.

 

As far as Wolf's value, I think we'd be able to get a pretty good haul, assuming he pitches well this season. The price tag on secondary players seems to be coming up this offseason (Pavano will probably get over $10MM/year, and Wolf got a monster deal), and quality starting pitching will still likely be at a premium.

[JohnBriggs12]

Counting on Rogers to throw 160 innings and then repeat that in '12 is likely pie-in-the-sky optimism. If Wolf can duplicate his '10, have a low 4 ERA, and start every 5th day, he might well outperform Marcum or Greinke (or Yo).

 

I don't think so. Rogers threw 126 innings last year. Even going by the add 20 rule, he's at 146 but with better command he should easily be able to add 30-35 innings. You have to figure he gained some confidence in his late season callup and should be close to dominant at AAA with even a slight improvement in command.

 

Wolf's going to need to be better than 2010 to outperform the top 3, and he's shown he's capable of doing that. But my point is with a year left on his deal, if that happens there'll be demand for him, so why not address some other needs partially in the deal and partially with the money saved? You'd still have Greinke, Gallardo and Marcum fronting your rotation in 2012 but you may want to spend elsewhere than the number 4 spot in your rotation, especially with Fielder gone and a gaping hole at SS and possibly 2B. As has been mentioned you'd also free up some cash to extend either Marcum or Greinke.

[DHonks]

JB, why mess with the pitching? Why not sign a shortstop AND have Wolf?

[dadofandrew]

Rogers had 126 in his first year of health in forever. Expecting more is more hope than actual expectations. If you were a linemaker, his over/under on total IP would have to be set at about 110 or less to balance out the money. He's more likely to throw 50 than 150. I'd have him start in the bullpen and then if he's not needed in the bigs, have him go 4-5 IP a start in June and July, to build up his stamina to get to 6 by August and September

[mothershipconnection]

At best, I see Wolf being worth his salary, so perhaps it would be possible to dump him for salary relief. I just don't see much coming back to the Brewers, even in the best case scenario.

 

I'd assume that to be the case as well. If Rogers steps up big and Narveson is decent, but they need the cash to either extend Greinke, get a legit SS, or sign a replacement 1B, then maybe it makes sense. Otherwise, you're probably just dumping salary at the cost of a potential gaping wound at the end of the rotation.