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How many wins for the 2011 Brewers?

splitterpfj

By splitterpfj,
in Milwaukee Brewers Talk

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rluzinski Carolina Mudcats

rluzinski

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Looking at some ZiPS projections for the starting rotation:

 

Grienke: 222 IP, 2.98 ERA*

Marcum: 138 IP, 3.49 ERA*

Gallardo: 160 IP, 3.49 ERA

Wolf: 198 IP, 4.09 ERA

Capuano: 111 IP, 4.22 ERA

 

*NL projections. Adjustment a WAG. Took AL projection and subtracted .5 ERA to account for moving to the NL and added .2 ERA for having to deal with the Brewer's terrible defense.

 

Total guess is 90 wins but I have some grave concerns about the team defense.

I wouldn't pencil Capuano in yet though. Unless I missed something he hasn't signed, and now that the Brewers traded for a couple pitchers he might want to go someplace where he might have a better chance of starting. Just my opinion. Would love to have Capuano here though.

I wouldn't either. Furthermore, even if I did, I wouldn't pencil him in for a 4.22 ERA. I just took the top 5 projected starting pitchers listed on the Brewers' ZiPS projections. I probably should have used Narveson and his 4.7 ERA.

 

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docduany College Ball

docduany

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88 seems like a high, yet attainable number. I'd love to see 90 but; our schedule, ss, players reverting to norms (I'm looking at you Corey), and injuries all give me enough pause to at least turn down my rose colored glasses a small notch.
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MadScientist Draft Eligible

MadScientist

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Lets see. Huge improvement on starting pitching, with only Wolf regressing a bit, but Naverson much closer to his second half than his first. Improvements from Prince and Braun and maybe Lucroy. Some regression from Hart, and weaker defense at short. Also the Brewers will not blow 7 saves in the first 2 months.

 

Taken all together that puts it at around 93 wins.

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logan82 Wisconsin Timber Rattlers

logan82

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90 wins only gives you a 54% chance of making the playoffs? That seems low to me. Or is this just general and not relating to the relative low level of competition in the NL Central?
Since 2002 the NL Central winners have won 97, 88, 105, 100, 83, 85, 97, 91, and 91 games.(93 average) The Wild Card winners have won 95, 91, 92, 89, 88, 90, 90, 92, and 91 games.(90.9 average) If we are at 88 that probably puts in the thick of things and makes us the leaders if things break our way. I have mentioned it in a couple of the SS threads and others have touched on it in this thread but each win over 88 greatly improves our chances. I know there is a stigma about the low level of competition in the NL Central but the winners have still typically won at least 90 games.

Fan is short for fanatic.

I blame Wang.

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Warning Track Power Carolina Mudcats

Warning Track Power

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90 wins only gives you a 54% chance of making the playoffs? That seems low to me. Or is this just general and not relating to the relative low level of competition in the NL Central?
Since 2002 the NL Central winners have won 97, 88, 105, 100, 83, 85, 97, 91, and 91 games.(93 average) The Wild Card winners have won 95, 91, 92, 89, 88, 90, 90, 92, and 91 games.(90.9 average) If we are at 88 that probably puts in the thick of things and makes us the leaders if things break our way. I have mentioned it in a couple of the SS threads and others have touched on it in this thread but each win over 88 greatly improves our chances. I know there is a stigma about the low level of competition in the NL Central but the winners have still typically won at least 90 games.
Even though I predicted 91 earlier, I could very well see a division winner this season at about 88 wins. There isn't a huge difference in the Central between us, the Cardinals and Reds. Additionally, I still think the Cubs and Astros are high 70 to 80 win teams and the Pirates will be improved as well. All things considered, the division should be close all year.

 

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Warning Track Power Carolina Mudcats

Warning Track Power

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88 wins for the Brewers is a popular pick so far...would anyone like to guess on the Cardinals and the Reds?
I'll guess about 84 for the Cards. I like the first 3 SP but hate their OF D. Rasmus situation could linger. I just get the 2008 Cardinals feeling about them in that they will be competitive and finish above .500 but will be consistently 5 games off the division lead.

 

I'll say 86 for the Reds. I am not sold on their SP outside of Cueto and Volquez. I don't trust Arroyo or Bailey. They have some questions in their lineup too in my opinion. Rolen could be in line for a fall off as he'll be 36 in April and Janish is not a very good SS. I do like Bruce and Stubbs quite a lot though.

 

My rose colored glasses say the Brewers have a little bit more in the rotation and the lineup than the Reds do. Hence my December prediction of:

 

Brewers 88-74

Reds 86-76

Cards 84-78

 

 

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  • 3 months later...
Klements Bratwurst College Ball

Klements Bratwurst

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Ok Brewer fans, now that we are just two days away from the first game of the season what is your prediction for the 2011 Brewer campaign? I know this type of thread is always one of the most fun to look back on at the end of the season to not only review my silly prediction but to see how the rest of you Brewerfan.netters are at seeing into that crystal ball.


 


 


Here goes my 2011 prediction- the Brewers will finish at 86-76 and will finish first in the NL Central Division.


 


 


The Brewers will get off to an OK start despite not being at full strength to start the season and will finish April with just a couple of games below .500. They play better ball in May and June when Zach Greinke joins the rotation and will compete admirably against that that tough interleague schedule in May and June. I think they will play .500 ball against the Rays, Twins, Red Sox, and Yankees so this stretch will not sink the Brewers.


 


 


The Brewers will near the All-Star game a few games over .500 and joining the Reds and Cubs nipping at the surprising Cardinals who hold first place buoyed by their the incredibly soft interleague schedule in which they do take advantage of.


 


 


Coming out of the break, the Brewers will hit their stride against their weaker schedule especially in August where it is the weakest, setting them up great for the stretch drive. They will be nearing first place by September 1st and will hold off the Reds, Cubs and the fading Cardinals. The Brewers will clinch the NL Central against the Pirates in the 3rd or 2nd final game of the season.


 


 


Prince Fielder will have a year like the 2007 or 2009 campaigns. Braun will do what Braun does with 30+ homers and a .315 average. McGehee will be a steady batter in the fifth spot in the lineup, and Gomez will start strong but will fade and will be soft platooned with Nyjer Morgan. All told, the CF position will be respectable offensively and not a black hole. Weeks will hit around 20 HR’s and hit .270 thus doing basically what he did last year. Hart will unfortunately perform back more to 2009 dealing with a few nagging injuries missing some time and cause the RF spot to perform below average offensively due to our poor bench and Hart missing time and under performing to last year’s numbers. Betancourt and Counsell will provide nothing for shortstop. I think this is Counsell’s last season, as age will finally start to show. Lucroy will be just OK.


 


 


Betancourt will be a liability defensively but not much worse than Escobar was last year. The hard part is that Escobar was young and it was somewhat tolerated. Betancourt’s lack of defense and effort will be maddening. Counsell will not be able to play too much to help defensively.


 


 


Gallardo will be the ace, and will win 18 games and pitch 200 innings. Greinke will be 10-7 and will miss all of April and will be moderately disappointing statistically but an improvement of a spot in the rotation versus the 2010 rotation. Marcum will win 13 games and will be mostly healthy missing only a few starts. Wolf will struggle early again, but gathers himself for the stretch drive posting an ERA just under 4.30 in 200+ innings and will also win 13 games. Narveson will pick up 10 Wins and an ERA just under 5.00. The bullpen will be strong but will take awhile to settle on a rotation out there. Axford and Saito will have lock down roles late in the games and Saito will be called upon to pick up a few saves. Braddock will hit the DL in late April and Mitre will be debacle. Kameron Loe will not be as good as last year thus causing some havoc in the middle to late inning set up roles. Brandon Kintzler will be a nice surprise and may step in there and Stetter will be back to his 2009 form. Sean Green will be just a guy. Who knows if Hawkins provides anything or where he fits in when he gets back? There is some depth in AAA to sort through if bullpen injuries set in.


 


 


Go Brewers prove me wrong and win 95 games!!

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bigredrobbo Draft Eligible

bigredrobbo

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Brewers win 86-76 and take the division on the last game over the Cubs. Cards can't take the loss of Waino and the inevitable breakdown of Carp and Big Puma. Reds lose every pitcher at some point for a few games for the niggliest of things. Pirates and Astros are horrible, but manage to win often enough against division rivals just to slow the rest down, and the surprising Cubs sneak up on everyone and almost clinch the division with great years from Garza, Cashner and a bounceback year from Crazy Carlos.

 

 

Crew 86-76

Cubs 85-77

Reds 82-80

Cards 80-82

Astros 73-89

Bucs 69-93

 

 

Then we lose to the Phillies (probably) and ruin any chance of a WI Superbowl/World Series two-fer.

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