How many wins for the 2011 Brewers?

[splitterpfj]

OK, who among us is the most brilliant? Who can tell me how many wins the 2011 Brewers will have?

 

For me, I see it like this...

 

The starting rotation is suddenly the strength of this team. Greinke projects as an All-Star, Marcum and Gallardo are both strong, and Wolf is league average...only Narveson projects as a negative...and even he isn't a total blowout.

 

I think the Brewers' bullpen is league average, almost exactly.

 

The offense is the tough part for me. Weeks just had a big year, but he's been hurt three times...which guy will he be? Hart has been all over the place as a major leaguer, which guy will he be? Lucroy has very little MLB experience, will he improve from last season? I think he will in the long run, but how much of that will come this season? Prince has been a bit up and down...he could be a plus, or he could be a force...which guy will he be? Gomez and Betancourt should be projected as offensive liabilities...but to what extent?

 

In the end, assuming no significant injuries, and no career years...I think this is an 85-win team. That is to say, if they had a completely vanilla season, this team finishes above .500.

 

If the studs on this team match their established career bests, I think this could be a 95-win team. This is the 2009 Greinke, with the best seasons on record from Braun, Fielder, Gallardo, Marcum, McGehee and Weeks.

 

I doubt either of those scenarios will happen. I say Greinke pitches at an All-Star level, Gallardo and Marcum are both clearly above league average, and Wolf is right at league average...the bullpen does its job...it doesn't put the team over the top, but it doesn't hurt them either. The offense, I'll say Braun plays at an All-Star level, and so does Prince. I'll bet on Weeks staying healthy, and being a plus, but not to the level of Braun and Fielder. I'll say Hart and McGehee are solid, but no more than that...for Betancourt, Gomez, and Lucroy...I'll politely hope for improvement.

 

In the end...I think this team wins 88 games.

[PlayerHader]

If every player on the roster manages to match their career bests this is a 100 win team. Think about the performances that statement implies for a second.

 

I'd put them at 92 wins.

[tratfan]

The guys on MLB network seem to think grienke will win 20-25 games. If that happens I think we easily win 90.

[Invader3K]

The guys on MLB network seem to think grienke will win 20-25 games. If that happens I think we easily win 90.

If I'm not incorrect, there hasn't been a 25 game winner in MLB for 20 years (Bob Welch, 27-6, Oakland A's, 1990). So that seems a bit hyperbolic to me.

[kilgore37]

Look for a career year from Prince. It he wants to get paid $150 mil you better put up .300/.400 and 40+ bombs. I think 92-93 wins

[Warning Track Power]

I doubt either of those scenarios will happen. I say Greinke pitches at an All-Star level, Gallardo and Marcum are both clearly above league average, and Wolf is right at league average...the bullpen does its job...it's doesn't put the team over the top, but it doesn't hurt them either. The offense, I'll say Braun plays at an All-Star level, and so does Prince. I'll bet on Weeks staying healthy, and being a plus, but not to the level of Braun and Fielder. I'll say Hart and McGehee are solid, but no more than that...for Betancourt, Gomez, and Lucroy...I'll politely hope for improvement.

 

In the end...I think this team wins 88 games.

Summed up perfectly. I think this is the likliest of scenarios. My guess:

 

1. Weeks raises the AVG a bit while sacrificing some power (.275, 25 HR)

2. Hart drops off a little. Back to his 2008 levels (.280, 25 HR, 85 RBI)

3. Braun will be Braun (.310, 30 HR, 110 RBI)

4. Fielder in a contract year (.290, 45 HR, 120 RBI)

5. McGehee drops off a bit (.280, 17 HR, 80 RBI)

6 & 7. Gomez and Lucroy are the keys to me. Bring good D and a .260-.270ish average and we'll call it good.

8. Betancourt is impossible for me to project. I expect him to be the new Suppan aka Scream at the TV guy

 

1. Greinke 2.85 ERA

2. Gallardo 3.40 ERA

3. Marcum 3.70 ERA

4. Wolf 4.00 ERA

5. Narveson 4.60 ERA

 

Bullpen does it's job. Axford proves to be a reliable closer

 

All this goes to plan and I truly believe this is the most likely scenario, this is a 91 win team. Best Brewers team I can remember going into a season so I give them a one win bump over the 2008 team.

[Funketown]

89 wins. There are very few teams that I'd project higher than 90 wins. I'll peg Cincinnati at 85 wins and St. Louis at 87 wins.

[carniesandrubes]

84 wins, 2nd in division, no wild card.

[madbad2000]

Well they are on pace for 162 wins so far...split that in half for being overly optimistic. Tack on 10 for off season gusto and sitting around 91 wins. Math is so easy.

[owbc]

Here's my rough guess...last year they won 77 games.

 

The improved pitching rotation is worth about 15-20 games when you consider the impact on the bullpen as well. That puts them around 95.

 

Then, I'm taking away 2 wins for the downgrades at CF and SS--but really we are talking about downgrades over expected 2011 performance as opposed to 2010 performance.

 

Then, I'm taking away another 5 wins due to the ridiculously difficult 2011 schedule.

 

88 wins is my prediction with the current team--and a few minor tweaks or a deadline deal by Melvin should put them in the playoffs.

 

I think the biggest concern is that there will be very few minor leaguers to help out late in the season or when injuries occur.

[jjkoestler]

88 wins. I'd like to say 91, but the interleague schedule is brutal this year.

Prince, Braun, Yo, ZG, Ax, and Weeks are All-Stars

Prince finishes in top 3 MVP voting

ZG finishes in top 3 Cy Young voting

Brewers win division

[ilovebeer]

i am still in shock (happy shock) so i say 99

[jimmyjeromehardy7]

I say 93 wins. Greinke will get 19, Yo 16, Marcum 15, Wolf 12 and Narvy 11 and the bullpen/others will be good for 20.

[Hammer]

My hypothesis is very close to owbc. 77 wins last year, 18 games improvement on the pitching staff, 1 game regression at CF, 2 game regression at SS, one game at 2b (small Weeks injury) and one game in Rf (Hart comes back down a bit) = 90 wins.

[rluzinski]

Looking at some ZiPS projections for the starting rotation:

 

Grienke: 222 IP, 2.98 ERA*

Marcum: 138 IP, 3.49 ERA*

Gallardo: 160 IP, 3.49 ERA

Wolf: 198 IP, 4.09 ERA

Capuano: 111 IP, 4.22 ERA

 

*NL projections. Adjustment a WAG. Took AL projection and subtracted .5 ERA to account for moving to the NL and added .2 ERA for having to deal with the Brewer's terrible defense.

 

Total guess is 90 wins but I have some grave concerns about the team defense.

[logan82]

Betancourt put up the same WAR as Escobar did last year. We didn't get worse as SS than we were in 2010. Escobar got better on defense and will probably be better than Betancourt in 2011.

[Ennder]

I think last year we had an 81 win team that underperformed and I think we've gained about 5-6 wins with the moves we've made so put me down for 87 wins. We can get that up to 88 or even 89 if we sign a new SS.

[Invader3K]

Last year I predicted them to win 85 and they fell well short of that.

 

My relatively unscientific approach to this: Seeing how much better the rotation should be this year, I am hesitantly looking at them as an 88 win team. I just think the rotation is going to be so much better than last year, and this should also help the bullpen. I think the offense and defense will be about the same.

[bork]

The big concern as always is who are the 6-8 starters when someone gets hurt. It's pretty much Parra, or prospects with little or no big league experience (Rogers, Rivas, Peralta?) Resigning Capuano as a reliever/6th starter would make me feel a bit better about the starter depth.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

I'll go with 88 to start, but I do see upside. I'm starting to talk myself into Greinke being the NL Cy Young winner. If Marcum & Gallardo are around 3ish ERAs, Wolf is high 3s and the 5th starter is not a black hole...they are over 90.

 

Biggest concerns are bullpen and defense. I'd also concur that SS is the positional weakspot on the team. They can handle a weak bat, but not a weak glove. That's why I'm not as bent out of shape on Gomez in CF...at least his D is good. Can Counsell be an average defender starting 60-80 games at SS? I'd also like to see another arm or two in that pen.

EDIT: It does stink that our interleague is NYY, BOS, TB & MIN while the Cards have BAL, TOR, TB & KC and the Reds have BAL, TOR, TB & CLE. That has to be 1-2 relative wins we'll need to overcome.

[sbrylski]

I ran the data about a year ago, here's a little illustration of the value of a marginal win. Melvin needs to keep the pedal to the floor.

 

http://i35.photobucket.com/albums/d175/sbrylski06/Podds.jpg?t=1292965572

[Invader3K]

90 wins only gives you a 54% chance of making the playoffs? That seems low to me. Or is this just general and not relating to the relative low level of competition in the NL Central?

[Klements Bratwurst]

"EDIT: It does stink that our interleague is NYY, BOS, TB & MIN while the Cards have BAL, TOR, TB & KC and the Reds have BAL, TOR, TB & CLE. That has to be 1-2 relative wins we'll need to overcome."

This bothers me too! While a week ago I thought the Brewers would go 0-6 through NY and BOS, I feel they have a better chance now, but that month of June Interleague schedule is ridiculously tough compared to St. Louis and Cincinnati having to play the Royals and Indians twice (respectively) where the Crew has to play Minnesota twice on top of the Yanks, Red Sox, and Tampa. That would seem that we need to really clean up in the Division or against the other weaker teams to overcome this disadvantage......

[sbrylski]

90 wins only gives you a 54% chance of making the playoffs? That seems low to me. Or is this just general and not relating to the relative low level of competition in the NL Central?

That is overall MLB since 1995 expansion. Last year, for example, teams with 88, 89, and 90 wins all missed the postseason. A team with 90 and a team with 91 made the playoffs. Which might help stomach ~89.5 wins being the 50% mark.

 

The orange dots represent the percentage of teams that made the postseason for each given level of wins. So you can see that since 1995, it looks like 2/3rds of the teams with 90 wins made the postseason. But only half of the teams with 93 wins made the playoffs. So the regression line ends up right through point 90, 54%.

[prophet]

Looking at some ZiPS projections for the starting rotation:

 

Grienke: 222 IP, 2.98 ERA*

Marcum: 138 IP, 3.49 ERA*

Gallardo: 160 IP, 3.49 ERA

Wolf: 198 IP, 4.09 ERA

Capuano: 111 IP, 4.22 ERA

 

*NL projections. Adjustment a WAG. Took AL projection and subtracted .5 ERA to account for moving to the NL and added .2 ERA for having to deal with the Brewer's terrible defense.

 

Total guess is 90 wins but I have some grave concerns about the team defense.

I wouldn't pencil Capuano in yet though. Unless I missed something he hasn't signed, and now that the Brewers traded for a couple pitchers he might want to go someplace where he might have a better chance of starting. Just my opinion. Would love to have Capuano here though.