Baseball Prospectus' Brewers Top 11 Prospects

[ramssuperbowl99]

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=12616

 

 

The scouting reports are members only, but the rankings are available to all:

Three-Star Prospects

1. Mark Rogers, RHP

2. Cody Scarpetta, RHP

3. Kyle Heckathorn, RHP

4. Wily Peralta, RHP

5. Amaury Rivas, RHP

6. Kentrail Davis, OF

7. Scooter Gennett, 2B

Two-Star Prospects

8. Tyler Roberts, C

9. D'Vontrey Richardson, OF

10. Jimmy Nelson, RHP

11. Hunter Morris, 1B

Nine More:

12. Caleb Gindl, OF: This undersized outfielder has left-handed bench potential.

13. Khris Davis, OF: He showed impressive power and patience in his full-season debut, but he's already 23.

14. Erik Komatsu, OF: Komatsu is another potential bench outfielder thanks to his approach, speed, and left-handedness.

15. Tyler Thornburg, RHP: The third-rounder has power stuff out of a small package, but he profiles better in relief.

16. Cutter Dykstra, 3B: This 2008 draftee had a bounce-back year offensively but has yet to find a defensive home.

17. Logan Schafer, OF: A groin injury and broken foot limited him to just seven games in 2010, but he could move up if he's healthy.

18. Chris Dennis, 1B/OF: This Canadian slugger has raw power and an idea at the plate. However, his long swing leads to plenty of whiffs.

19. Eric Arnett, RHP: This 2009 first-round pick fell apart mechanically during a disappointing full-season debut.

20. Matt Miller, RHP: A fifth-rounder from June, Miller is a tall righty with a good fastball and command but little else.

Here are the 2 available reports on Rogers and Scarpetta:

1. Mark Rogers, RHP

DOB: 1/30/86

Height/Weight: 6-3/220

Bats/Throws: R/R

Drafted/Signed: First round, 2004, Mount Ararat HS (ME)

2010 Stats: 3.71 ERA (111.2-86-69-111) at Double-A (24 G); 2.08 ERA (4.1-3-3-3) at Triple-A (1 G); 1.80 ERA (10.0-2-3-11) at MLB (4 G)

Best/Worst Tool: Fastball/control

Year in Review: In his seventh professional year, this former fifth overall pick finally stayed healthy with a normal workload and reached the big leagues.

The Good: Despite an injury history that would have most out of baseball, Rogers still has a power arsenal. He throws a 92-96 mph fastball with a bit of natural sink, and gets good spin on a 78-83 mph curveball with plenty of late break. He earns praise for his makeup and work ethic, coming all the way back after missing two full years due to shoulder issues.

The Bad: Rogers' ability to stay healthy will remain a risk for some time, as he's had multiple surgeries and still has a cross-fire delivery that takes his arm well across his body and reduces his ability to throw strikes. His changeup is a below-average offering, which combined with the mechanics, leaves many scouts projecting him as a late-innings reliever.

Ephemera: Rogers was, and remains, the only player from Maine to be selected in the first round of the MLB draft.

Perfect World Projection: Rogers could have a future in either a bullpen or rotation role.

Fantasy Impact: It's hard to say without knowing a role.

Path to the Big Leagues: While the Brewers are likely to make more moves before spring training, as of now, Rogers is in the mix to compete for the fifth starter job.

ETA: 2011.

2. Cody Scarpetta, RHP

DOB: 8/25/88

Height/Weight: 6-3/240

Bats/Throws: R/R

Drafted/Signed: 11^{th[/sup] round, 2007, Guilford HS (IL)}

2010 Stats: 3.87 ERA (128.0-120-67-142) at Double-A (27 G)

Best/Worst Tool: Curveball/control

Year in Review: This bulky right-hander rebounded from a slow start with an excellent second half to finish among the Florida State League leaders in strikeouts.

The Good: Scarpetta began throwing more strikes as the season wore on, and he was finally able to take advantage of his stuff. His 91-94 mph fastball is a tick above average, and his plus-plus curve is the best in the system, capable of generating silly-looking swings from good hitters. He maintains his stuff deep into games and pitches with an aggressive edge that serves him well.

The Bad: Scarpetta will flash a solid changeup at times, but it remains an inconsistent pitch that needs refinement. He can get out of whack mechanically, and lose the strike zone. His big body borders on soft, and conditioning could become a bigger issue for him down the road.

Ephemera: Scarpetta had significant trouble in bases-loaded situations during the 2010 campaign, as opposing batters went 9-for-19 with four doubles and a home run against him.

Perfect World Projection: He could be an innings-eating third starter

Fantasy Impact: It'll be average for a starting pitcher, with some extra strikeouts.

Path to the Big Leagues: Scarpetta will move up to Double-A in 2011 and get his workload tested at a higher rate.

ETA: Late 2012.

I think Goldstein's assessment of the system, overall, is both harsh and accurate. We don't have much impact MLB talent, but have plenty of guys who can fill out the back end of a rotation, bullpen, and bench. Thankfully, if everyone gets extended, we won't need any impact starters.

[jjfanec]

The Perfect World scenario for Rogers is much better than he makes it sound in my mind. His perfect world sounds like the realist world. However, if Rogers can limit his walks he has very high upside with his strikeout potential and batters inability to make good contact against him.

 

Outside of that I would say Gindl, Schafer, and Komatsu have more than just bench potential but Goldstein scouts a lot more than I do

[dadofandrew]

Gindl will have to prove himself at every level. That said, his lack of height doesn't scare me a bit, it doesn't matter in the field or at the plate. Schafer looks like a far better prospect than Komatsu to me.

 

Also, that's a pretty deep list to me, especially when people are saying how weak the system is.

[gregmag]

Al, I'm curious why you say that Schafer looks far better to you than Komatsu. I'm not asking because I necessarily disagree with you -- I'm not sure -- but you seem to think the difference is large, and I'd like to know your thinking. I'd be interested in others' views on this question as well, because it's obviously a pretty important issue moving forward.

 

Schafer is a year older than Komatsu; they both played their age 22 seasons, their most recent full seasons, at Brevard. Schafer hit .313/.369/.446 in 2009 (and then basically lost last year to injury); Komatsu hit .321/.411/.440 in 2010. Komatsu had a fairly substantial edge in plate discipline and base stealing; Schafer had a clear but not huge edge in power. Komatsu had a slightly higher BABIP, .356 to .341. I don't know much about either player's defense; I know I've heard more over time about Schafer's tools generally. Both guys had more PAs in those age-22 seasons than in the rest of their minor league careers put together, Schafer by quite a bit, so we don't have much other performance data to work from.

 

The numbers actually make Komatsu look pretty good in the comparison; I would have expected greater gaps in power and age/performance, before I checked, but overall the two seem pretty close, with Komatsu seeming to merit a slight edge. Now, it's just one year's worth of data for each guy; it's a nice comparison -- same age, same level, a year apart -- but scouting insights certainly could outweigh these numbers. So what do people think?

[Tedaldtada]

For me, I remember Komatsu saying that this season he sacrificed power for contact/getting on base. Now, he was very successful, but his true ceiling is dependent on him working that power back into his arsenal (he mashed in Helana in 2008). If he can keep that .440+ SLG% in AA, I think people will start moving him up some lists.

 

Schafer is more of a contact guy. For me, he doesn't project to hit for much power at all.

 

Both guys can run a little and both are sweet swinging lefties. Scouts have rated bat speed for both as average or a tick above, so they should have success as they move up the MiLB ladder. I also think both guys have 4th OF floors. As for defense, both should stick in center.

 

Very comparable guys for sure. Gindl too. I would rank the ceilings of the 3 guys like this: Gindl, Komatsu, Schafer with the first two being very, very close. Still, I put the over/under on all star appearances between the three at 0.5.

[And That]

Schafer is the superior fielder, possibly a good deal superior. I like Komatsu's plate skills a little more. Being that Komatsu has more recently been healthy, I'll take him right now, but I think it's a pretty close call. If they both stay healthy in 2011, it'll make for a very interesting race.

 

If they both hit the same going forward, I'd take Schafer for his defense.

 

Gindl probably can't play CF long term, which really puts a limit on his value. He could end up a tweener if the power doesn't show back up.

[igor67]

I like Gindl a good deal, but at some point he does have to show that his height won't limit his power. Or he'd have to turn into a high average guy. I still think he has a major league career, because of his age at each level, but at this moment it looks more like a Brady Clark career than anything else.

[dadofandrew]

Schafer is a prototypical CF, good defender, runs well, even his long, lanky build. Komatsu just looks like a bench guy to me, though I like his ability to take walks, which Logan does not.

 

I hope they both turn out great, but I like Schafer more, as long as he comes back healthy.

[Mr Southpaw]

Where do you guys think these 3 will play this year?

[Tedaldtada]

I would like to see Schafer (CF) and Gindl (RF) in AAA, and Komatsu starting in CF for AA.

[And That]

Schafer would have to have a great spring training to break camp in AAA. I think Komatsu almost might have a better shot. It's possible all three of them end up in AA, or two of the three end up in AAA.

 

Schafer will play CF wherever he ends up. If Komatsu isn't on the same team as Logan, Erik likely plays CF. The only way Gindl will get a lot of time in CF is if he's not on the same team as either.

[paul253]

Is it a possibility that all of them start out in Huntsville? Gindl's numbers all seem to drop off last year so another year in AA may not hurt. I'd like to see those power numbers go back up. Hopefully one of them can have a breakout year ala Lorenzo Cain and be ready to start 2012 in Milwaukee as the center fielder.