revised thinking

[mancl]

The recent trades make the 2011 season an exciting one but really drained the minor league system. How does this alter the Brewers approach to the draft? As Colbyjack alluded into in another thread the trades make a SS a much higher need. Any other changes?

[colbyjack]

I honestly don't think it changes their approach too much, as my mention of Francisco Lindor was more for fun (and out of excitement of acquiring Greinke) than a belief that they will switch gears based solely on their recent activity. I obviously really like Lindor, and felt he was a good fit regardless of the move of Alcides Escobar. Shortstops are so incredibly valuable, and the team really hasn't done a good job drafting them since Hardy (after historically having very good fortune with them dating back to Gorman Thomas, Robin Yount, Paul Molitor, Dale Sveum, etc.).

 

I think we will see the trend of college draftees continue. Look at the drafts since Zduriencik left and you'll see an obvious preference for college players. In 2009 they took college players with their first, two sandwich picks, 3rd, 5th-9th and 11th-15th round picks. In 2010 they did so with their 2nd-6th, 8th, and 10th-14th round picks. Of course their first they spent on Covey, who opted for college.

 

In general, college players not only progress faster, but they typically enjoy better results earlier in their careers, giving them more value in trades. Of course of the most recent trade, only Cain can be considered a college player, and even he spent only one year at a juco as a DFE signee. Even then we're talking about players signed in 2003 (Escobar), 2005 (Cain), 2006 (Jeffress), and 2008 (Odirizzi). Whether the team completely develops a player and/or uses them as valuable trade chips, typically the college draftee has move value in both regards more quickly.

 

With the additions of Greinke and Marcum, and the development of the pitchers that still remain, as well as the trade of Lawrie to get Marcum, I could see the team load up on more bats. In the next Power 50, you're going to see a lot of pitchers named early and often, although I'm sure the team will remain extremely pitcher conscious, particularly with the addition of a pitching crosschecker to their scouting staff.

 

And while the team has done a very good job budgeting appropriately for the draft, not going cheap on the extra, early picks they had in 2008 and 2009, I wouldn't be surprised to see them go for somewhat of a budget-conscious pick at #15 with the compensatory pick for Covey. They may be a little snake-bitten not signing Covey, and their budget may be a little more pressed next year given the most recent big-league acquisitions. As I always argue, it's all about who you take, so even if you do draft on a budget, you have to make sure you take the right player at the right place.

[bamberger]

The Brewers desperately need to improve their efforts in Latin America. I think a change in scouting personnel is warranted.

 

They also need to draft more players with an identifiable position. Too many DH types for a National League team.

[TooLiveBrew]

This is an honest question, because I don't know: does signing & producing guys like Alcides Escobar, Wily Peralta, Amaury Rivas, & Hernan Iribarren warrant a dramatic overhaul of the Latin American scouting? I'm not familiar with the rates at which other organizations turn out talent from that part of the world. And I thought the Brewers had made a couple of good or respectable signings this past season.

[paul253]

I am strongly in favor of the "best player available" approach to the draft, as opposed to drafting for need, but sometimes it works out in both cases (drafting Braun when they needed a third basemen). That being said, Milwaukee could really use a high ceiling shortstop in their system. With those two early picks, are there any shortstops that would be good enough to be drafted that early but not so good they will be gone by the time Milwaukee picks? If they could get a shortstop and another starting pitcher with these picks I would be thrilled.

[colbyjack]

Paul, as mentioned to kick this thread off, visit this thread to see where I mentioned how Francisco Lindor would look really good for the Brewers with one of their first-round picks. Lindor could be gone by the time the team picks, but he doesn't have the upside/athleticism of guys like Tim Beckham and Justin Upton to go among the top 3-5 overall picks. Some prognosticators have him ranked much lower than a potential mid first-round pick, questioning his bat, but his ability to make adjustments, play at his best during his biggest opportunities as well as the way he carries himself on the field leads me to believe he has a much better chance to succeed at the next level than most do. Plus, he's silky smooth at SS, and shouldn't have to worry about his glove holding him back (or moving elsewhere).

[brewerguy71]

If the Brewers took Lindor in the '11 draft, it would be the best first round pick in 5 years.

[narwhalattack]

How about a pitcher 12th and SS 15th?

 

Personally I would prefer having pitchers for both 12th and 15th but I'm well aware that the Brewers also need a SS

[HiAndTight]

How about a pitcher 12th and SS 15th?

 

Personally I would prefer having pitchers for both 12th and 15th but I'm well aware that the Brewers also need a SS

Obviously you always want front-line starters.

 

But with the failure rate of those guys and the place the Brewers are in right now, a lot of pitchers in the upper levels and almost no sticks, I'd just assume go for the guys who are safer bets and see if we can't get a couple of impact bats.

 

If one's a SS, all the better. A SS and a corner stick would be nice. Not that I can't understand those who'd just draft top end pitching(almost)every year...lot of validity to that as well.

[nate82]

I believe the Brewers farm system right now needs some impact bats. I like Alex Dickerson as a possibility to replace Prince as I see him as a 1B type of a player. I also like Ricky Oropesa who I believe is somewhat like Branyan he has a ton of power and from what I have seen in video of him he could be just a little bit above average at 3B defensively probably more of a 1B than a 3B in the long run. There are some other bats I would like to see the Brewers take who are George Springer, Jackie Bradley, and Zach Cone. I could see Ricky Oropesa as a supplemental pick in the draft I am just not sure that he will be around when the Brewers pick again after 15. I don't think he would be the right pick at 15 but if Dickerson is available at either the #12 or #15 spot I don't see how the Brewers could pass him up. He is the power bat the farm system is currently lacking. I believe there are enough high upside with question marks for pitching that the Brewers could take in the 2nd-5th rounds of the draft. I really like the power bats that this draft has I am just not all that sure the Brewers will be able to pick up more than one in this draft that I like personally.

[ListachRides]

I can't sign off on Dickerson with either of the Brewers first-round picks. This is supposed to be one of the strongest drafts in recent memory and a no-glove all-bat 1b/LF is not going to be good value where the Brewers are picking. While pitching may be the relative strength of the Brewers' farm system compared to the dearth of position player prospects, they need to just go BPA. In the first 20 picks of this draft that is most likely to be a pitcher. I could get excited about Lindor or Bradley, Jr., but otherwise I think the Brewers are again going to be looking at college arms early and often. I just hope they take the right ones. It's possible a power hitter could be good value in rounds 2 or 3. You mentioned Oropesa, who I think will be available at least through their round 2 pick. I could see others like Preston Tucker or Dan Vogelbach being options after the the first round.

[nate82]

Keith Law just updated his top 2011 Draft guys. Law believe Lindor will go somewhere in the top 10 which means the Brewers would miss out on him. I still like Dickerson yes he is all bat and no defense but he is the power bat the Brewers farm system is lacking right now. I wonder if Josh Bell would slip down to the Brewers at the #15 spot that would be a nice pick up at that spot and I wouldn't mind missing out on Dickerson then since I think Dickerson might slip to the 2nd round but I am not sure he will be available when the Brewers pick again. Bell is also an all bat and no defense type of a player. Scouts are having their doubts with Bradley, Jr., it looks like they believe he won't be able to play CF in the majors and if he is not able to play CF his stock drops off a lot since he really isn't a speed or a power guy. I also like what I have seen out of James McCann from Arkansas. He looks good defensively behind the plate but I believe offensively he may struggle though he does have an easy swing. I would watch him as he could be someone that could be available in the 3rd or 4th round.

[brewerguy71]

I would love to have Lindor with that 12th pick, but also agree that he will be long gone by then. I dont think they would have to worry about Bell "falling" to them at 15, as that would be a slight overdraft for him at that pick.

 

If the draft were today, I would say a draft of Trevor Bauer at 12 and Jason Esposito at the 15th would be a nice draft. Although there is depth, I dont see a ton of big time huge talent after the 10th pick or so.

[ListachRides]

Although there is depth, I dont see a ton of big time huge talent after the 10th pick or so.

I'm inclined to disagree. Everything I've read so far suggests that there will be multiple players available in the 10-20 range that wouldn't make it out of the top 10 most years. I think there will be real elite talent available when the Brewers pick. In particular, they might have their choice of the top-shelf high school arms if the first ten picks are as college-heavy as people are expecting. I think the amount of worthy candidates for where the Brewers are picking is what has me most excited about this year. There are so many possible options for those picks that speculating about them won't grow stale by draft time.

 

[paul253]

In a recent chat on Baseball America, someone asked Jim Callis if he thought the Mets had a shot at Matt Purke. He said yes, at #13. Obviously the Brewers have the pick right before that. If Matt Purke is available at #12, the Brewers would pick him.....right?

 

Here is a link to the chat.

 

http://www.baseballameric...s/chat/2011/2611546.html

 

Peter (Brooklyn): Do the Mets have a shot at Matt Purke?[/tt]

Jim Callis: Yes, at No. 13. Again, I think he's better

than that, but he hasn't been 100 percent this year and is sliding a

little. Also, his signability has to be in question because he's a

sophomore who was offered $6 million out of high school. (Which he

agreed to, but MLB killed the deal.)

[battlekow]

How do we feel about Mikie Mahtook? From the BA chat today:

Ben (Leland Grove): About where would Mahtook go off the board if today's date was June 6th?

Aaron Fitt: About No. 15, I'd say.

Colby had Mahtook rated #54 overall on 1/9.

[ListachRides]

I don't see Purke to the Brewers happening. Most of what I've read between BA, ESPN and elsewhere suggests that Purke is expected to be pricey (he had a $6 million deal voided by MLB 2 years ago and you'd have to think he's looking for something similar). I do think there's a decent chance one of the other top-tier college arms, likely Barnes or Jungman, drops to 12.

 

To me, Mahtook's a real exciting possibility at 15. The scouting reports I've read described him as a toolsy player who can handle CF defensively but lacked polish. Colby obviously knows much more than I do, but I suspect that #54 overall ranking would be different now that Mahtook showed up this season and started destroying the ball. Strikes out a little more than you'd like but otherwise his numbers are sick. I think landing a high-upside college player would be great for an unprotected pick.

 

I'd be pleased with something like Barnes at 12 and Mahtook at 15. Too early to guess at names but there should be some real good talent available for the 2nd-round pick as well.

[colbyjack]

I agree with ListachRides' assessment of Purke. I really like the way he pitches, but I think his pricetag would scare some teams, including the Brewers, away.

 

Mahtook certainly has risen past my preseason ranking of #54, but I wouldn't be a huge fan of taking him. I'm really skeptical of his swing, and I've had a couple of chances to see it this year. He's pitchable despite the gaudy numbers, although he is an impressive overall athletic talent.

[paul253]

I agree with ListachRides' assessment of Purke. I really like the way

he pitches, but I think his pricetag would scare some teams, including

the Brewers, away.

 

This is one of my biggest problems with the draft. Instead of the best players going to the worst teams, the best players are going to the teams who are willing to pay for them. It's pathetic.

[sveumrules]

In the case of someone like Purke (or any top tier HS kid) who doesn't have to sign if drafted I have no problem with them using that leverage to get as much money as possible. If the worst teams want the best talent they need to pay for it.

I realize there is the old argument that "these kids haven't proven anything in pro ball so they're not worth it" but I'd rather give someone like Purke 6 million and then have long term control of him than give that same amount of money to a middle reliever or DH on a one year deal.

[ListachRides]

Mahtook certainly has risen past my preseason ranking of #54, but I wouldn't be a huge fan of taking him. I'm really skeptical of his swing, and I've had a couple of chances to see it this year. He's pitchable despite the gaudy numbers, although he is an impressive overall athletic talent.

Good to know. If there are question marks about his bat, then the Brewers could probably do better at 15.

[DHonks]

I have three students that are expecting to be drafted (one has had conversations with the Brewers). I've spoken with them about the benefits to signing or going to college. One is a catcher that is thinking of going to college (Utah) since he's only recently started getting noticed. Another is a lefty that throws around 90. The last is an outfielder who supposedly may go in the top 5 rounds. All have some basic parameters for signing bonus that it would take to get them to go pro. It's good to know they've got a plan in place.

[battlekow]

Baseball America's Aaron Fitt has a blog post up--Purke's Velocity Drop Raises Concerns:

Purke got off to a strong start, racking up five strikeouts through two scoreless innings, using a sharp slider as the putaway pitch for four of them. His fastball sat at 90-91 mph those first two innings, topping out at 92-93, but his stuff dropped off precipitously in the third, when the Aztecs scratched out an unearned run. A scout commented in the third that Purke's arm slot dropped noticeably, and his stuff flattened out. He sat about 88 that inning, then dropped into the 84-86 range in the fourth inning. He exited after allowing a leadoff single in the fifth (when he threw fastballs at 82 and 85 mph), having thrown 79 pitches. He did not strike another batter out after the second, and he finished with three walks, four hits and two runs (one earned).

[battlekow]

TCU beat writer Stefan Stevenson: "BREAKING NEWS: #TCU's Matt Purke out indefinitely w/ soreness in throwing shoulder. Seeing famed Dr. James Andrews Wednesday in Florida."

[battlekow]

Following up on Mikie Mahtook and BA's Aaron Fitt:

@Jaypers413 (IL): How would you grade Mahtook's tools on the 20-80 scale? Thanks.

Aaron Fitt: It's pretty much 50s and 55s across the board — not a real carrying tool, but a very nice all-around package.