Why so many chances?

[jerichoholicninja]

Reading the Dickerson vs. Gomez debate in the transaction forum finally pushed me to post this. In baseball, players are given many chances -- no matter how bad they do. Gomez, outside of defense, has shown little to anything that proves he will be a good or even adequate offensive player. However, despite four years and almost 1500 plate appearances of futility, he will probably be a teams' starting center fielder for the third year of his career.

 

Let's compare that to Matt Cassell of the NFL. As football fans would remember, before Matt started for Tom Brady a few years ago he had not started a game since high school. Matt proved he was a capable starter (obviously playing for the Pats helped) and he was traded to the Chiefs to become the starter and was signed to an extension. It took one season for Matt to be deemed a capable player. Another example is Matt Schaub of Houston. He was a backup for years and had a few good games for Atlanta when Houston decided he was good enough to be a starter and traded for him. Since then he has proven to be a decent quarterback. Bringing it full circle, after Tom Brady's first year playing in place of Drew Bledsoe the Pats decided he was good enough for them to trade their Pro Bowl quarterback.

 

My point here is that in baseball, one season means nothing. In football, one season can make a career. There are 162 MLB games and 16 NFL games. What is the difference? And I'm not only talking about on the MLB level either. Former top prospects will switch positions, go to or from the mound in the minors and never seem to go away. I've never figured out how it can be wise to keep giving the same failures more opportunities while other guys never get a chance. Even at the Major League level there are players that never go away despite showing no real value of anything. So let's discuss why Corey Patterson has always been able to get a pro baseball job.

[monty57]

While I agree in concept that Gomez has been given a lot more chances than he probably has merited, a pro football QB has a big playbook to memorize. Not really comparable to a baseball player.

 

Not to be a Gomez apologist, but he was brought up sooner than he should have been. This didn't allow him to get the "seasoning' he should have received in the minors. Purely opinion, but I think this also led to a sense of entitlement in Carlos, which to me is why he hasn't listened to the numerous coaches who have told him to be more patient at the plate. Since he is probably the Brewers CF for at least 2011, I hope the benching last season got to him somewhat, and hopefully he will start to get a little more "heady" as a player. Somehow, I doubt it.

[The Truth]

Gomez appears to be a player who can steal 70-80 bases in a season if he can up his on-base percentage. That and Gold Glove capable defensive ability will get you plenty of chance in MLB

[gregmag]

One reason may be that in football, players come through college programs that give you a pretty good sense of who the players are going to be. In baseball, the quality of information about young players isn't as great. To put a less sunny face on the same point, in baseball, pro teams have to invest in players before they know for sure what they're getting. Nobody likes to cut bait on a big investment.

 

I don't really know anything about football, so I can't assess your premise fully. I would say, though, that the baseball side of your premise seems a bit slanted to me. After all, sometimes baseball players make good on their later chances, and sometimes baseball players never or only belatedly get the chances they deserve. I don't see baseball as sending out an endless parade of retreads who don't deserve to be playing.

[GAME05]

you mention a lot of players in the minor leagues who switch positions and therefore get to extend their careers, but that strategy of moving talent to new positions has shown to be very successful. the first player that springs to my mind is Joe Nathan, who started off as a shortstop.

 

it's a market matter just like any other. if there were a ton of young, big-potential players waiting to play, then the leashes would be shorter for starters to perform. heck, we already saw that when Cain was called up last year and replaced Gomez.

 

if baseball suddenly discarded all its retreads and cut loose all the young players who are underperforming, you'd end up with a system filled with players who just plain aren't very good. kind of a wash.

[uwisfan]

there have been many players in the NFL who have had many, many opportunities..long after they were believed to be busts.. Akili Smith? Ryan Leaf? If you were drafted by someone in the first round, you will likely get shots with several teams before they stop calling you.

[Ennder]

Football is an easier game than baseball. You either have the talent or you don't in most cases. Hitting is not quite so simple.

[bjkrautk]

Football players rarely have to play on both offense and defense, as opposed to MLB players (excluding pitchers & DH's in the AL).

 

Gomez gets chances to prove (or, rather improve) himself on offense because he's such a good player defensively. The best NFL comparison I can think of is the Tight End who gets the job based of his ability to block rather than his pass catching ability; the MLB equivalent of a Donald Lee. It's an important part of the game....just not the one that shows up in a box score.

[joepepsi]

Football is an easier game than baseball. You either have the talent or you don't in most cases. Hitting is not quite so simple.

And there are few positions in football that require a special talent. Half or more of the players need only be huge, strong, and somewhat nimble on their feet for their enormous size.

[Thurston Fluff]

Football has plenty of those types as well. Rex Grossman just got another start this week after an awful career. Jeff George was given multiple shots even though teams knew he was a wienie and hadn't shown himself to be all that productive. He had a big arm and teams covet that.

If a player has raw skills he will be given plenty of chances to succeed in any sport. There are just not many people with exceptional tools so they are valued no matter the results up to that point.

[dadofandrew]

Gomez would be a superstar if he was the same player and he had a .375 OBP. He's so good defensively and on the bases, he's still decent even though his hitting has been subpar. Whenever a guy is really good at something, he'll get far more chances than if he's just below average at everything.

[rluzinski]

Gomez was a prospect who's been below average but above replacement level and is still relatively cheap. As pointed out, there are plenty of players in the NFL who are in the same situation and they get plenty of chances as well.

[dlk9s]

Kickers and punters are recycled like crazy. Get cut by one team, get picked up by another the next week.

[jerichoholicninja]

Let's look at it the other way. In baseball one successful season is always questioned. Casey McGehee's break out year was followed by calls to trade him before he crashes. Yes, I know McGehee never had shown any signs of being great and he did dip (.859 OPS to .801) but it certainly wasn't the crash and burn many were expecting. Overall there sure are a lot of baseball players that have a great rookie or first few years and then completely drop off.

 

To compare it to football, Arian Foster was a backup and practice squad player before this season and now leads the league in rushing. Adrian Peterson has a great first few games and has been a star since.

 

I guess what I don't get is after one season of baseball you have much more information about a player than football. Spring Training, regular season and playoffs could add up to almost 200 games. With football you are looking at 24 tops. A lot of people pointed out quarterbacks who were given constant opportunities and I will give you that. I took a quick glance at the first round of the 2007 draft. There were some really good players in that first round (Calvin Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Patrick Willis, Darrelle Revis, Dwayne Bowe) but there were also some busts who are pretty much nobody's already after just three seasons (JaMarcus Russell, Ted Ginn, Jr., Justin Harrell, Brady Quinn, Greg Olsen, Anthony Gonzalez). To me it seems like in the NFL you get a year or twp tops (if you're not a QB) before your shot is over. In MLB guys make careers of off the word potential.

[logan82]

Let's look at it the other way. In baseball one successful season is always questioned. Casey McGehee's break out year was followed by calls to trade him before he crashes.

In baseball you usually have at least 2-3 years of minor league statistics to look at. In football all you have is what a guy did in college against uneven competition.

[jerichoholicninja]

Let's look at it the other way. In baseball one successful season is always questioned. Casey McGehee's break out year was followed by calls to trade him before he crashes.

In baseball you usually have at least 2-3 years of minor league statistics to look at. In football all you have is what a guy did in college against uneven competition.

Which even more so strengthens my question. In the NFL one good season determines what kind of player you are. In MLB players have 3-4 minor leagues seasons and still one good season or two in the majors leaves questions.

[logan82]

Let's look at it the other way. In baseball one successful season is always questioned. Casey McGehee's break out year was followed by calls to trade him before he crashes.

In baseball you usually have at least 2-3 years of minor league statistics to look at. In football all you have is what a guy did in college against uneven competition.

Which even more so strengthens my question. In the NFL one good season determines what kind of player you are. In MLB players have 3-4 minor leagues seasons and still one good season or two in the majors leaves questions.

Usually because of their MiLB stats. If a player was good in the minors there is typically little question about them at the MLB level. In the case of McGehee he hit far and away better than he ever did in the minors. With a player like Braun the questions were whether he was going to be Pujols like or just merely very very good.

[Nottso]

I think a lot of has to do with the fact that a baseball player can be sub-par in one area, yet be so good in other areas that he keeps getting chances. Gomez for instance. He's awful at the plate, but he still has some value. In football, most players don't have multiple areas, or at least not to the extent a baseball player does. If an NFL receiver can't catch, no matter what else he may be good at, he's gone. If a DB can't cover, sayonara. So on and so forth.

[rluzinski]

I guess what I don't get is after one season of baseball you have much more information about a player than football. Spring Training, regular season and playoffs could add up to almost 200 games. With football you are looking at 24 tops.

 

I don't think you can just look at total games played and conclude one season of baseball offers more data than one one season of football. For instance, offensively, a psotional player only gets 5 "touches" a game. Also, the spread of talent could be closer in baseball than football (I have no idea). The difference between replacement level and average is pretty small, after all.

[Oxy]

I guess what I don't get is after one season of baseball you have much more information about a player than football. Spring Training, regular season and playoffs could add up to almost 200 games. With football you are looking at 24 tops.

 

I don't think you can just look at total games played and conclude one season of baseball offers more data than one one season of football. For instance, offensively, a psotional player only gets 5 "touches" a game. Also, the spread of talent could be closer in baseball than football (I have no idea). The difference between replacement level and average is pretty small, after all.

I think the crux of the issue has already been addressed- football is a game that is dominated by pure athleticism and highly specialized talents at particular positions. Every game you have 50-70 plays to judge them on their effectiveness at a relatively small number of reliable traits (positioning, speed, tackling/blocking) The one position that this doesn't hold is at QB, where guys do hang on longer at get many chances. Baseball is so much more nuanced. There are a myriad of highly specialized skills to evaluate--and in each one a small adjustment can mean a large difference in effectiveness over the course of the season.