Power 50 Shakeup -- Latest: New P50 is up!

[And That]

Rogers is what, 25? His ceiling is what he did last year.

Rogers was damn impressive last year.

[colbyjack]

Going back to the original premise of the post, I really think Brooks Hall has the highest upside of prospects rarely discussed. His numbers weren't pretty during his debut last year, but it was the first year that he focused on pitching after being drafted as a potential 2-way recruit (South Carolina). We really haven't heard much about him since being added to the system, but his upside rivals anyone currently in the system.

 

And we may have to wait until June to start following his career again.

[TooLiveBrew]

Rogers is what, 25? His ceiling is what he did last year.

With sharp analysis like this, it's no wonder Gennett is your #1. Rogers's ceiling is a dominant, top-of-rotation starter. Say what you will about his chances to reach it, but if you honestly think his ceiling is a RP... well, yeah. I'm beginning to think endaround is right that you just like being contrary.

[And That]

Easily the most underrated prospect in the system, IMO, is Erik Komatsu. Guy had as rock-solid and consistent a year as you're going to see out of a CF in the FSL. Sweet LH swing, good plate discipline, enough power not to get the bat knocked out of his hands, smart, if not fast, baserunner. The "CF" part of his resume is what a lot of people seem to gloss over - he's probably not going to win a Gold Glove out there, but he's more than competent there (or in the corners). A year ago, we were wondering if Cain or Schafer would emerge as the CF of the future. Now it's going to be between Schafer and Komatsu.

[TooLiveBrew]

Komatsu certainly had a great year. It'll be (hopefully) fun to see how he fares in Hunstville... hopefully also in Nashville.

[And That]

The new Power 50 ballots have been tabulated. Comments should be done around New Year's, give or take a week.

 

Eight new guys on the list, and of course, four new guys in the top 10.

 

Also on the list: Jesus Sanchez.

[dadofandrew]

Rogers started last year, and did well. Given his injury background and age, it's tough to see him as a frontline SP for the next few years. He's far more likely to pitch out of the bullpen or spend a lot of time on the DL. Pitchers flame out a lot even if they are healthy.

[filthyfrog]

Being 25 could mean Rogers is close to his ceiling, but it could also mean he's out of the "injury nexus." I don't really believe that - I'm just making a point.

[dadofandrew]

That's correct, pitchers tend to be healthier after 24/25 or thereabouts.

[battlekow]

The new Power 50 is up!

[TooLiveBrew]

Curious about some levels -- guys like Peralta, Rivas, Scarpetta, Merklinger, & Farris are all listed at MLB. I assume that's just because they're on the 40-man roster. ... ?

[battlekow]

Curious about some levels -- guys like Peralta, Rivas, Scarpetta, Merklinger, & Farris are all listed at MLB. I assume that's just because they're on the 40-man roster. ... ?

Yeah, it's because those players won't be optioned anywhere until spring training.

[SenatorShriv]

Nice job getting this out early guys. I used this as an excuse to refresh my memory on the stats and histories of guys that I was really only paying sporadic attention to. It seems like there are a lot of guys in there who could suddenly leapfrog most of the pack if they stay healthy, stick at a new position or improve a certain area of their game. We just don't have a ton of guys who have "put it all together" for more than about 1/2 a season.

 

 

Not in the tier of players i was describing above, but I have to believe that Eric Arnett could make a big push with some quality performances early in the year. Obviously he has had a really rough go of it so far but I'm a little surprised he has plummeted as far as he has. What would it take for Arnett to move up the ladder in the eyes of the Power 50 gods?

[Invader3K]

This line about Kenny Allison made me chuckle:

 

His most notable offensive trait in the few months he spent at Maryvale was a Weeksian HBP rate, but his physical tools make him one to keep an eye on entering 2011.

 

"Weeksian!"

[igor67]

It was a pretty bad year for Arnett, but stuff and pedigree are still there, so I'd guess even one good month and he is probably closing in on the top 10 again. I mean even Chad Green showed more than Arnett has so far, so I don't think it would take too much for him to get back in the conversation. In terms of passing some of the other guys I'd say more like a good half season.

[paul253]

Was there any thought to adding Rob Wooten? He was doing pretty well before his TJ Surgery. Or does he have to get back to pitching to prove his worth again?

[And That]

For me at least, Wooten has to pitch again in game action before I'll consider adding him back to my list. He's an older reliever without great velocity. Guys like that have to be pitching to be on the radar.

[LouisEly]

I know when you get to the end of the list it is like splitting hairs, but still no love for Corey Frerichs. While he lost a year to injury, between 2008 and 2010 in 159 innings he gave up 116 hits and struck out 171. Walks a little high, but he closed for Brevard. We'll see if he can sustain that at AA and become a legitimate relief prospect.

 

Another guy who might sneak up on some people is Mike Walker. Second to Hawn in SLG and HRs, he led Helena in OBP at .413. Defense a little shaky with 14 errors, but if he can sustain the OBP and increase power a little he'll be on the map soon.

[twobrewers]

1. You gentlemen did a splendid job on that list. I always appreciate the work.

 

2. That list is horrible. I am excited about one prospect - Mark Rogers. I think a few others might make an MLB impact, but that is all. I like Braddock as well - but by BA standards he doesn't count as a prospect anymore.

 

3. Josh Prince really fell of the face of the Earth. His numbers are bad - but as a SS and former 3rd round pick, I would have thought he could at least hang out in the 30-40 range.

 

4. Cody Adams, Evan Frederickson, Seth Lintz, Eric Arnett, Dylan Covey and Max Walla are really dragging down the system. Most agree with the trades to acquire Marcum and Greinke - but our system is in bad shape because of the number of draft picks that have flat out failed in the past 3 years.

 

I'm depressed from typing #4.

[DHonks]

twobrewers, Cody Adams isn't dragging down the system anymore. It would be nice if 2 of Arnett, Lintz, Frederickson, and Walla could become solid prospects again.

 

I'm also hoping Periard, Anundsen, and Wooten give me reason for optimism again.

[narwhalattack]

I'm interested on what Thornburg and Nelson can do. I'm also interested in if Arnett can come back from a disaster season

[EdgarDiazRocks]

Max Walla WUZ ROBBED!!!!

[Tedaldtada]

I really like the list in general, but I think that D'Vontrey Richardson needs to rise based off of his potential alone. People want a guy that has superstar ceiling? D'Vo is probably the Brewer with the highest ceiling. On top of that, D'Vo has already had much more success then other raw prospects, like Brent Brewer and Max Walla. 2011 will be important for Richardson.

[colbyjack]

I agree that few have the upside that Richardson does in the system, but also keep in mind that he was drafted out of college, so you somewhat expect to see such a player enjoy some success upon beginning their pro career (as opposed to Brewer and Walla).

[LouisEly]

The only difference between a guy flaming out at AA/AAA or rookie ball is that perhaps you can fool someone into thinking they are a decent prospect in A-ball and include them in a trade for a major leaguer. Other than that there isn't much difference; the question is whether or not a Will Inman, Steve Garrison, or Michael Brantley can get you someone who helps you get into the playoffs. Only a handful from each draft make it to the majors anyway, so if they flame out earlier the bonus is that they get out of the way of the development of other prospects sooner. The percentages in baseball are much lower, even in the first two rounds.

 

We as fans are spoiled because of the success of the Brewers recent drafts - to have so many consecutive 1st round picks make the majors (Fielder, Weeks, Rogers, Braun, Jeffress, LaPorta, and almost assuredly Lawrie) is above-average. Arnett might be the first true first-round pick, not including supplemental picks, to not make the majors since Mike Jones in 2001.

 

People want the Brewers to draft high ceiling guys, but Frederickson, Lintz, Walla, and the like ARE those high-ceiling prospects. That's the downside of drafting them - they tend to be boom or bust. The only question is whether there were a number of guys drafted shortly after them who go on to be solid major leaguers. The gauge of a draft is whether or not overall you did better, the same, or worse than most other teams.