The Betancourt Thread

[monty57]

The 16 HR's last year were also about twice his previous season high. HR by year: 2005 - 1, 2006 - 8, 2007 - 9, 2008 - 7, 2009 - 6

 

I don't think we should assume he'll hit double digit HRs. His career numbers (OBP/SLG/OPS) are .296/.393/.689. He'll be 29 in January with five years of service time under his belt, so it's not like this is a small sample. Last year he was middle-of-the-pack offensively (12th of 22 qualifying OPS), but in 2009 he was dead last. Throw in that everything points to him being around the worst defensive SS in the league, and it seems that we could do better.

 

I know that not every player on the Brewers' roster can be above-average-to-good at everything, but if you are going to be below average at something, you need to be above average at something else. Other than an outlier year of 16 HR, Betancourt appears to be at best average offensively to go along with very bad defense. Maybe I (and others) are being a bit over the top about how bad he'll be, but he certainly looks to be the worst all around player on the projected 25-man roster at this point. If a better option can't be added, then I hope Counsell sees a lot of playing time at SS (and his body holds up) and I hope we have a decent SS at AAA who can come up if Betancourt is indeed as bad as some are projecting, and he is jettisoned mid-season.

[kramnoj]

the problem is that in addition to being average-ish with the bat he's horrific defensively, and that's what makes him an unacceptable starter

 

The issue with this statement is that our preconception of what is acceptable may not match reality. There were worse players than Betancourt playing at his position last year. It's certainly possible that all GM's playing shortstops worse than Betancourt weren't doing a good job, or it's possible that what we believe to be freely available replacement players aren't quite so freely available.

 

I focused on his OBP because that's what ruins his offensive value. Again, when a guy has a sub .300 career OBP, he's kind of screwed.

 

Again, you weren't trying to paint a picture of his offensive value. You were highlighting his negatives. There was no valid reason to only present the negatives if you were trying to be honest.

 

His 16 HRs last year has been quoted numerous time in this thread, so I didn't think it was necessary to point out that he's shown above average power as a SS.

 

I don't really understand your logic here. Betancourt's OBP has been previously mentioned here. His offense isn't really a factor on whether he should be a starting SS, because it's near the middle of what his peers provide. If you want to make the argument that Betancourt shouldn't be a starter because of his defense alone, make the argument. But throwing in OBP alone to support the argument is weak.

 

I don't think we should assume he'll hit double digit HRs

 

If you can find anyone making that assumption, you should let them know. Betancourt has been better offensively in the past than he was last year. His OPS+ last year is marginally better than his career. His slugging was higher than usual, but his BA and OBP were lower than usual. A regression to the mean should provide comparable value to what was provided last year.

[MilwaukeeCounsell]

When looking at some of his stats, it's clear his home run rate should decrease.

 

His HR/FB% was 7.6%, which is 3.1% higher than his career average. 3.1% doesn't sound like a lot, but it represents a 69% increase, which is dramatic. Then, when using HitTracker, which rates the true distance of home runs, 6 of his home runs were just enough, while 2 were lucky. Seems like a lot of that can be contributed to an irregular increase in HR/FB%.

 

Also, looking at his wOBA (weighted on-base average), which is better than OPS because OPS undervalues OBP, he ranked 6th worst in the league with a wOBA of .300. League average is around .330, and his career average is .297. So we can expect about the same production from him, with less homers.

 

Only real positive is that his BABIP was .267, which is 18 points lower than career average, so his batting average should increase slightly next season assuming that normalizes.

 

His bad, below-average offense, coupled with his bad defense make him a terrible player. It's really hard to find anything positive about him. I really really hope Melvin is looking for other options.

[MilwaukeeCounsell]

This was an interesting take on the Yuniesky problem, which points towards a logical platoon.

 

"Expecting a 40-year-old shortstop to play daily is a bit much, which means a platoon is a better idea. The contrast in batting hands allows for a perceived natural platoon and the numbers support the idea. Betancourt doesn’t do much well, but his ability to hit left-handed pitching seems genuine. Betancour has even managed on-base percentages over .330 in three of the last four seasons against lefties, which is worth noting because Betancourt is not known for reaching base. Interestingly, Counsell has walked more in the last three seasons than Betancourt has in his entire career in about a third of the plate appearances. Counsell saw his numbers versus righties slide last season, but he’s usually good for an on-base percentage over .330 versus them."

 

I did not look at his splits, so it looks like he can manage to decently hit lefties. Hopefully the Brewers make use of this.

 

Here for the full article: http://www.fangraphs.com/...php/pondering-a-platoon/

[thebruce44]

Except that "those who watch him" doesn't necessarily mean "baseball people"/scouts, front office guys. I just watched him. I wasn't impressed. If he wanted to reference the collected opinions of some scouts, he should have said

 

I'm going to guess that most people assume that he was talking to professional baseball people. Considering this was a blog post thrown up while TH is on vacation, I don't see any benefit from criticizing the minutiae.

 

 

I didn't read it that way. And speaking of minutiae...

[logan82]

Except that "those who watch him" doesn't necessarily mean "baseball people"/scouts, front office guys. I just watched him. I wasn't impressed. If he wanted to reference the collected opinions of some scouts, he should have said

 

I'm going to guess that most people assume that he was talking to professional baseball people. Considering this was a blog post thrown up while TH is on vacation, I don't see any benefit from criticizing the minutiae.

 

 

I didn't read it that way. And speaking of minutiae...

For whatever it's worth, Drew Olson's comment about Betancourt on 540 ESPN this afternoon was along the lines of: "The people I talk to, who get paid to watch Royals games, say he's one of the worst players they've ever seen."

[rluzinski]

But throwing in OBP alone to support the argument is weak.

 

 

My argument was and is, when you know a SS has significantly below average defense and a sub .300 OBP, unless he has some real power, everything else is basically irrelevant. It just isn't going to add up to every day starter material. I find that argument to be pretty rock solid and I think you are the only person here who is taking issue with it.

I get it; you think that some people's opinions of Betancourt are based more on his reputation than on an objective analysis of his statistics. I'm sure that's true but it's largely irrelevant, since his reputation seems to mirror reality. If he doesn't project to be replacement level, he's pretty darn close.

[kramnoj]

I didn't read it that way.

 

I don't think you are representative of TH's target audience either.

 

My argument was and is, when you know a SS has significantly below average defense and a sub .300 OBP, unless he has some real power, everything else is basically irrelevant.

 

You have yet to respond to the data that Betancourt was a win better with the bat than Escobar despite having the same OBP. You can continue to repeat your argument, but it's not supported by actual data. Unless you think a win is basically irrelevant. I don't.

 

If he doesn't project to be replacement level, he's pretty darn close.

 

I'm not disputing that. I'm pretty sure I said it, maybe in a previous thread. I certainly am not excited by Betancourt. I'm hopeful that he returns closer to the player that he was earlier in his career, and he has motivation to do so in terms of money and in terms of being on a good team. He's not so old that a return to those years is inconceivable. And the other SS that are out there aren't projected to be better than Betancourt was when he was at his best (which is admittedly a low ceiling).

[thebruce44]

Except that "those who watch him" doesn't necessarily mean "baseball people"/scouts, front office guys. I just watched him. I wasn't impressed. If he wanted to reference the collected opinions of some scouts, he should have said

 

I'm going to guess that most people assume that he was talking to professional baseball people. Considering this was a blog post thrown up while TH is on vacation, I don't see any benefit from criticizing the minutiae.

 

 

I didn't read it that way. And speaking of minutiae...

For whatever it's worth, Drew Olson's comment about Betancourt on 540 ESPN this afternoon was along the lines of: "The people I talk to, who get paid to watch Royals games, say he's one of the worst players they've ever seen."

 

 

"Who get paid to watch Royals games" is a lot more informative than "those who watch them." For all we know that could mean his family and friends.

[kramnoj]

For all we know that could mean his family and friends.

 

It could be aliens and ghosts, but there is no reason to assume that's what was meant. I don't see any reason to think that TH was talking about anybody but baseball people. I think it's just another example of people looking for reasons to criticize TH.

[greeg35]

except aliens and ghosts (probably) are not possibilities. Fans are. Specificity is important in journalism and Haudricourt does plenty to draw criticism on his own, he's not some victim to negative mob mentality.

[rluzinski]

You have yet to respond to the data that Betancourt was a win better with the bat than Escobar despite having the same OBP. You can continue to repeat your argument, but it's not supported by actual data. Unless you think a win is basically irrelevant. I don't.

 

Another SS with a terrible OBP had negative offensive value to his team last year. How is that fact at odds with anything I've said here? Why would I think that one win is irrelevant?

You've lost me.

[MJLiverock]

I agree that Betancourt really is not a good player but given the alternatives out there he may just be the SS for the Brewers by default. He is getting paid either way and there really isn't a lot of reason to pay some other stiff a few million to be barely an better if at all. The list of available players is not impressive. Izturis? Wasn't there an article just a couple years ago pointing him out as the worst player in all of baseball?

 

The marginal upside of these guys over Betancourt probably falls within the margin of error of any projection. The whole list looks like a comparison of a bunch of guys at the bottom of the league at their position any of whom could be the dead last worst player in a given year considering the age and/or limited skills to begin with for these guys.

[igor67]

In other threads it hasn't been too hard to identify a number of available SS out there that would post a higher WAR in all likelihood. That 1 win improvement is in the margin of error for the entire teams winning percentage, but that doesn't make roughly a win win improvement trivial. Far from it, the difference between say 88 wins and 90 wins is huge. And the beautiful thing about Betancourt is that he is so bad in so many ways that it doesn't really matter what stat you want to use he's bad, and there are number of relatively cheap better options available. If you can get a decent SS glove, our team defense won't be a strength, but at least you are average or better at every up the middle position with that staff, high K relievers and the offense that's a pretty big combo.

[EbbaStClaire]

Would Doug Melvin ask Zach Greinke his opinion of Betancourt and use that information to develop a strategy to ensure the Brewers have an adequate shortstop? If I was Melvin, I sure would.