The Betancourt Thread

[RockCoCougars]

TooLiveBrew]But those who watch him regularly say he can handle the position as well as former Brewers shortstop J.J. Hardy.

'Those' who spoke to Hardicourt must be Brewers PR spin doctors. I highly doubt that based on what I've read from Royals fans. Actually, in my opinion it's not even a given that Escobar can 'handle the position' as well as Hardy at this point in time.

 

Looks like we have a poor man's Jose K. on our hands here, but he did lead the Royals in RBI's.

[PeaveyFury]

I can't believe a replacement level player wouldn't be better.

 

They'd be pretty close, if nothing else. Replacement level would probably be a bit worse with the bat, but considerably better in the field.

[GoudaBrew]

Have we officially heard if Betancourt's inclusion was at the request of Melvin or Moore? Or maybe the better question is, will we ever hear for sure? Melvin surely could have signed a better SS for around the $3M we owe Betancourt for 2010 so his inclusion has to be that KC wanted to dump him right, and Melvin is just really good at GM-speak?

[dpapo]

I would like to know if Melvin wanted him or just had to take him as well, maybe a bit of both. Anyway, more on how bad Betancourt is from one of the latest Haudricourt's blogs:

 

"One slightly disturbing part of the column is how Olney points out that some baseball people were surprised that the Brewers took shortstop Yuniesky Betancourt back in the deal rather than going out and finding another shortstop option. Probably because Betancourt fit into their budget (the Brewers will pay him $3 million this year) and Melvin expects to have Craig Counsell return to back him up..."

 

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/112183699.html

 

 

[monty57]

But those who watch him regularly say he can handle the position as well as former Brewers shortstop J.J. Hardy.

 

2010 Fan Scouting Report

 Ovr. React./Inst. Accel. Spd. Hands Release/Ftwrk. Arm Str. Arm Acc.
Hardy: 68 75 64 47 70 75 75 66
Betancourt: 34 19 15 30 27 32 68 46

Initially, I wanted to provide a larger sample since not many fans filled out forms for the Twins or Royals in '10. But honestly the Betancourt '10 grades are basically what he got in '09 & 08... and if anything, the Hardy grades are underselling his arm by quite a bit. So, "those who watch him regularly" don't think Betancourt should be in the field, let alone that he's as good as J.J.

So basically, he gets bad reads, has no speed to make up for this, bobbles the balls that he can get to, and when he finally throws the ball to first, his feet get twisted up and even though the ball is thrown hard, it's not really likely to be thrown anywhere near the first baseman. Sound about right?

 

[TooLiveBrew]

Yeah, that's probably about it. Maybe EdgarDiazRocks can confirm or deny this fully.

[rluzinski]

"But those who watch him regularly say..."

 

How does a reporter use that as a source? I mean, WHO is that, exactly? Every KC fan? Sounds like something you say when you have an opinion and want to pretend others agree with you.

[kramnoj]

How does a reporter use that as a source?

 

He could list every scout, front office person and reporter he talked to, but the vast majority of people wouldn't care. It's not exactly uncommon to reference baseball people for opinions without naming them.

[And That]

Except that "those who watch him" doesn't necessarily mean "baseball people"/scouts, front office guys. I just watched him. I wasn't impressed. If he wanted to reference the collected opinions of some scouts, he should have said

 

"But scouts who watched him regularly say..."

 

Precision is a pretty useful journalism tool.

[kramnoj]

Except that "those who watch him" doesn't necessarily mean "baseball people"/scouts, front office guys. I just watched him. I wasn't impressed. If he wanted to reference the collected opinions of some scouts, he should have said

 

I'm going to guess that most people assume that he was talking to professional baseball people. Considering this was a blog post thrown up while TH is on vacation, I don't see any benefit from criticizing the minutiae.

[RyDogg66]

Betancourt is really the only thing that depresses me about the Brewers offseason. Id rather have Adam Everett in the field and just take the outs. Hell, I'd rather the Brewers infield play with cats in their pants before sending Betancourt out there.

[Funketown]

Betancourt is really the only thing that depresses me about the Brewers offseason. Id rather have Adam Everett in the field and just take the outs. Hell, I'd rather the Brewers infield play with cats in their pants before sending Betancourt out there.

This gets me wondering...Could Adam Everett actually field better than Yuniesky Betancourt holding a dog on a leash? Maybe with a small, well behaved dog...

 

I also have images of Adam Everett trying to field while flipping pancakes on a large spatula and balancing on a basketball. That'd probably be similar to Betancourt.

[tomwopat]

Royce Clayton without the glove and the snazzy haircut. Incidentally, Wikipedia says that Royce plays Miguel Tejada in the upcoming film Moneyball. Wonder if he's a better actor than a hitter.

 

Yuni's BR comparables have some winners too: Neifi Perez, Jack Wilson, Angel Berroa.

 

That being said, the one upside is that expectations are so low that anything resembling replacement level, or close to average performance will make him look golden.

[monty57]

I have to believe that Betancourt was a "negative value" part of the trade so that the Brewers wouldn't have to throw in another, better player. I'll try to keep reminding myself of that whenever Betancourt boots a play.

[joepepsi]

Yuni's BR comparables have some winners too: Neifi Perez, Jack Wilson, Angel Berroa.

That's unfair to the first two, at least. They can/could actually play defense. Betancourt reminds me of Deivi Cruz, without that one big season in Detroit when everybody thought he was like, 21, but turned out to be like, 26.

[monty57]

I hadn't looked up Betancourt's stats until now. He's got a career .689 OPS!!! He added a little pop last year, hitting 16 HR, but that came at the expense of average & OBP. I thought he was a butcher in the field, but at least wouldn't be a black hole at the plate, but unfortunately I was wrong. I hope the Brewers are willing to eat the $3MM when a better option at SS comes around, which shouldn't be difficult to find.

[And That]

I don't see any benefit from criticizing the minutiae.

If that was the one thing that jumped out to at least two people here, I don't think it is "minutiae." If he had talked to scouts, he should have said as much. Actually would have been fewer keystrokes.

 

Regardless of who told Haudricourt that, they were blowing smoke. Betancourt and Hardy are on different defensive worlds.

[Thurston Fluff]

Looking for trends in yearly UZR results is like trying to look for batting trends in 200 AB increments.

 

Yet WAR uses it and the same people who discredit a single season of UZR seems to like WAR as a true indicator when it uses single season UZR. Kind of contradictory to me which is why I pretty much dismiss WAR overall. Can't put in a stat that is known to be troublesome in the size used and expect to get something predictive of future results. All it tells us is what he was not what he can be. All that said when everything shows he isn't good it's hard to believe he'll be good. Not willing to say he's completely useless as others have before I see him but not gonna hold my breath waiting for positives.

 

As a stop gap on an otherwise good fielding team I could see it. As the Brewers are set up not so much. Hope there is something else in the works.

[Invader3K]

For whatever it's worth, Drew Olson's comment about Betancourt on 540 ESPN this afternoon was along the lines of: "The people I talk to, who get paid to watch Royals games, say he's one of the worst players they've ever seen."

[trwi7]

Melvin said they took Betancourt back because they needed a SS, not because the Royals made them.

[Dragonbait]

"The people I talk to, who get paid to watch Royals games, say he's one of the worst players they've ever seen."

 

Aren't those people the only ones who watch Royals' games anyways......

[1992casey]

Tom H. should have said, "According to Brewerfan.net members…."

[MadScientist]

How long before Cruz is ready to take over as starting SS?

[pretendastronaut]

For whatever it's worth, Drew Olson's comment about Betancourt on 540 ESPN this afternoon was along the lines of: "The people I talk to, who get paid to watch Royals games, say he's one of the worst players they've ever seen."

 

 

 

I didn't get to listen to much of that segment, but I was amused that following that, Haudricourt tried to compare him to Hardy defensively, and then "an older version of Escobar, except with power."

[rluzinski]

Looking for trends in yearly UZR results is like trying to look for batting trends in 200 AB increments.

 

Yet WAR uses it and the same people who discredit a single season of UZR seems to like WAR as a true indicator when it uses single season UZR. Kind of contradictory to me which is why I pretty much dismiss WAR overall. Can't put in a stat that is known to be troublesome in the size used and expect to get something predictive of future results.

True indicator? There's no such thing. WAR is simply an estimate of the value of a particular performance over a particular time period. The defensive side of that estimate has significantly more uncertainty than the offensive side. I would never take a position player's WAR for one season and pretend I could make an accurate projection with it. Heck, good luck trying to project a batter's line with only 1 year of offensive data.

 

If I'm trying to get an objective sense of a player's defensive talents, I take 3 years of UZR and combine that with the results of tango's fan scouting report. That what I did here and I think that is about the best we can do with publicly available information.