Who Has the Best Pitching in the NL Central Now?

[TooLiveBrew]

I dunno, I think the Cards, Reds, & Crew are all pretty close when it comes to starters. And then can you really accurately say which bullpen is better, given how much of a crapshoot relievers tend to be?

 

The Brewers & Cards definitely have the best top 3 on paper at this point, but I just think the Reds might be getting overlooked a bit. They'll have Volquez all season, no more Harang, and Leake/Bailey/Wood all with more experience. And while I can understand making the criticism that Chapman's BB rate isn't strong yet, that feels a bit like pointing out that Scarlett Johansson has a pimple. Imo Chapman is a bonafide ace in the making; whether he's able to blossom into that type of pitcher this season might make or break which of these three staffs is the best overall.

 

Cincinnati looks to be 7-deep in quality starters (Volquez/Cueto/Wood/Chapman/Bailey/Arroyo/Leake). Neither the Brewers nor the Cardinals can boast that kind of depth. Chapman pitching as well as he's capable of doing in '11, combined with the Reds' depth, could well make them the best in the division. I think I'm about as big a Mark Rogers fan as there is (outside of Maine), and I want to believe Cappy & Narveson will perform well, but I just think Cincy is deeper.

 

If I have to pick between just the Cards & Brewers, I lean towards Milwaukee. I'll admit part of that is probably homerism. However, I think that Carpenter's age & injury risk, along with the Brewers' superior depth, is enough to nudge the Brewers past St. Louis. It's definitely close, though.

 

 

Very curious on Garcia as well. I can't see him repeating '10, but I could be wrong. If he repeats that's one heckuva #3.

 

I have a hard time expecting him to repeat his '10 ERA, but his peripherals last season might be for real. My quick guess is that his ERA will be somewhere between 3.25 & 3.75 next season, which would obviously still be very good.

[Thurston Fluff]

Cincinnati looks to be 7-deep in quality starters (Volquez/Cueto/Wood/Chapman/Bailey/Arroyo/Leake). Neither the Brewers nor the Cardinals can boast that kind of depth.

 

If you add Chapman, Leake and Bailey in that due to possible improvements then you should also add in Rogers and Parra for the Brewers. I think the potential of our top 7 are as good as the Reds top 7.

[TooLiveBrew]

I did in considering this discussion, and there's no way adding Rogers & Parra comes close to the quality depth that Cincy has.

[rluzinski]

A quick comparison of the Brewers', Reds' and Cards' starting rotation, using ZiPS projections. I first assume that each team needs 162 x 6 = 972 IP from their starters for a year. I then added up the ZiPS projected IP of the top 5 pitchers for each team. I gave the remaining innings to a pretend 5 ERA pitcher for the Brewers and Cards and to Bailey for the Reds (to try to account for their superior depth). I also subtracted .3 ERA from Marcum and Greinke’s projected ERA (WAG… easier division but terrble team defense):

Brewers:

PLAYER IP ERA

Greinke 222 2.98

Marcum 138 3.49

Gallardo 160 3.49

Wolf 198 4.09

Capuano 111 4.22

Replace. 143 5.00

--------------------------

Total: 972 3.80

Cardinals:

PLAYER IP ERA

Wainright 215 2.85

Carpent 162 3.33

Garcia 117 3.53

Westbrook 103 4.11

Lohse 123 4.62

Replace. 252 5.00

--------------------------

Total: 972 3.93

Reds:

PLAYER IP ERA

Wood 178 3.64

Volquez 108 3.66

Cueto 191 4.01

Arroyo 201 4.21

Leake 168 4.34

Bailey 126 4.47

--------------------------

Total: 972 4.06

I realize that Cappy isn't even signed this year and I am suspicious that he's ready to put up a 4.22 ERA in 111 IP if he does pitch for the Brewers. It might be more realistic to put Narveson's 4.7 ERA there instead.

[Crew2323]

I've seen this in a couple places now, but why is Marcum only projected to pitched 138 innings next year, when last year he threw 195.1? Is he being projected to be hurt? Bill James projects him to throw 203 innings next year. Either way, 138 seems very low.

[logan82]

He didn't play much in 2009.

[rluzinski]

Statistical based IP projections usually involve just taking a weighted average of previous IP. Like IP2010 x .5 + IP2009 x .3 x IP2008 x .2. Not very scientific. I think we all could come up with better estimates, since we can consider age, injury history, etc... I think ZiPS is too pessimistic and James' is way to optimistic. James is basically assuming that these is almost no chance of Marcum getting hurt next year.

[Crew2323]

Thanks for that explanation. With such limited knowledge on advanced metrics and projections, I automatically assumed that said projections were only based off of the previous year. Makes more sense now!

[dlk9s]

Holliday has graded out very well by all the advanced defensive metrics.

http://img63.imageshack.us/img63/7134/hollidaydrop.gif

 

 

Also, if it matters, Buster Olney ranks the Brewers' rotation as the 6th best in MLB, Cardinals 8th. He would rate the Cards higher if Carpenter returns to form.

[Invader3K]

I think a lot of people rag on Holliday's defense for that one play.

[Thurston Fluff]

I did in considering this discussion, and there's no way adding Rogers & Parra comes close to the quality depth that Cincy has.

 

I think we are looking at depth a little differently. I am taking it as part of the overall picture not who has the best #6-8 guys. Yes their bottom is better but our top is as well. If we lost a pitcher I think whats left of the top 5 would make up the difference between their #6 and ours. Not saying your way is wrong by any means just a different way of looking at it.

[Fatter than Joey]

I did in considering this discussion, and there's no way adding Rogers & Parra comes close to the quality depth that Cincy has.

 

I agree... I think Parra at this point is closer to BP depth than rotation depth.

[PrinceFielderx1]

Mark Rogers imo is going to have a big impact in the Brewers starting rotation in 2011. He didn't "start" a couple games in Milwaukee for nothing. Not to mention hitters looked completely lost when facing him in September 2010. He practically pitched a no hit game 9IP no hits. Rogers was fully healthy in 2010 by pitching close to 130IP and the fact that he has his high 90's velocity back. I think he can pitch close to 160IP in 2011. He could push the Brewers rotation to a whole new level.

 

The Brewers will in all likelihood give him a good shot to start in there rotation sometime early in 2011. Narveson will have a hard time getting or keeping that 5th spot in the rotation, because of it.

[Oldcity]

A 3.8 ERA from the rotation seems like insanity considering what they've had the last few years.

[TooLiveBrew]

I think a lot of people rag on Holliday's defense for that one play.

That's exactly it, Invader. That one play happened to be in the nationally-televised postseason, so most baseball fans saw it. Nevermind that everything else shows Holliday as a solid to good fielder, we have one bad play on video!

[logan82]

Mark Rogers imo is going to have a big impact in the Brewers starting rotation in 2011. He didn't "start" a couple games in Milwaukee for nothing. Not to mention hitters looked completely lost when facing him in September 2010. He practically pitched a no hit game 9IP no hits. Rogers was fully healthy in 2010 by pitching close to 130IP and the fact that he has his high 90's velocity back. I think he can pitch close to 160IP in 2011. He could push the Brewers rotation to a whole new level.

Villanueva and Parra also looked like awesome starting pitchers in September callups. I wouldn't read to much into anything done in September.

[PrinceFielderx1]

Mark Rogers imo is going to have a big impact in the Brewers starting rotation in 2011. He didn't "start" a couple games in Milwaukee for nothing. Not to mention hitters looked completely lost when facing him in September 2010. He practically pitched a no hit game 9IP no hits. Rogers was fully healthy in 2010 by pitching close to 130IP and the fact that he has his high 90's velocity back. I think he can pitch close to 160IP in 2011. He could push the Brewers rotation to a whole new level.

Villanueva and Parra also looked like awesome starting pitchers in September callups. I wouldn't read to much into anything done in September.

They were also given fair opportunities to start in the Brewers rotation. That's where Rogers is headed.

[thebruce44]

Mark Rogers imo is going to have a big impact in the Brewers starting rotation in 2011. He didn't "start" a couple games in Milwaukee for nothing. Not to mention hitters looked completely lost when facing him in September 2010. He practically pitched a no hit game 9IP no hits. Rogers was fully healthy in 2010 by pitching close to 130IP and the fact that he has his high 90's velocity back. I think he can pitch close to 160IP in 2011. He could push the Brewers rotation to a whole new level.

Villanueva and Parra also looked like awesome starting pitchers in September callups. I wouldn't read to much into anything done in September.

They were also given fair opportunities to start in the Brewers rotation. That's where Rogers is headed.

The Brewers 2008 rotation had Sheets, Soup, then nothing after Yo got hurt. That situation has absolutely nothing to do with this year.

[PrinceFielderx1]

I'm aware of that theBruce44. If Rogers continues where he left off it's going to be very hard to keep Rogers out of the rotation no matter how well Narveson is pitching. I could see the Brewers trading Narveson mid-season if he is pitching well to make room for Rogers. That is how much I think Rogers is favored by the Brewers. Time will tell, so we'll see.

[bigredrobbo]

The prospect of the Brewers trading any warm body that can post a sub 5.00 ERA as a starter anytime soon doesn't seem very likely, in my opinion.

[PrinceFielderx1]

The prospect of the Brewers trading any warm body that can post a sub 5.00 ERA as a starter anytime soon doesn't seem very likely, in my opinion.

Depends on who is replacing that pitcher.