Who Has the Best Pitching in the NL Central Now?

[wallus]

Are we now clearly better than St. Louis and Cincinnati in terms of rotations now? I am a huge fan of Wainwright and am interested to see his comparison with Greinke.

[Ennder]

I'd say we have better pitching than the Reds but the Cardinals are still really good. I think our pitching is probably better but they are in a pitchers park and have better defense behind them so I'd think the results might favor them a little.

[trwi7]

I would take Wainwright/Carpenter/Garcia/Westbrook/Lohse over our 5.

[wallus]

I would take Wainwright/Carpenter/Garcia/Westbrook/Lohse over our 5.

Am I the only one that thinks Carpenter is going to drop off dramatically this year?

[Beast Light]

One thing that I really like is that our top 2 guys have youth on their side. Gallardo and Greinke will open the season at 25 and 27, respectively. Wainwright and Carpenter will be 29 and 36. Since Gallardo and Greinke are experienced starters, you have to consider that to be a positive thing. I'd definitely take Marcum and Wolf over Westrook and Lohse. It will be interesting to see how Martinez looks in his second season.

 

Volquez, Cueto, Leake and Arroyo could be very good though.

[davemakovec]

Chris Carpenter is getting old, and he has a lot of innings on a twice-surgically-repaired arm. I just don't see Garcia being that good continuously, but I have been surprised by the Cardinals polishing turds into gold nuggets before. Westbrook is Wolf without the strikeouts. Who's their five?

 

I think we will out-pitch the Cards, and we will certainly out-hit them.

[bigredrobbo]

One thing that I really like is that our top 2 guys have youth on their side. Gallardo and Greinke will open the season at 25 and 27, respectively. Wainwright and Carpenter will be 29 and 36. Since Gallardo and Greinke are experienced starters, you have to consider that to be a positive thing. I'd definitely take Marcum and Wolf over Westrook and Lohse. It will be interesting to see how Martinez looks in his second season.

 

Volquez, Cueto, Leake and Arroyo could be very good though.

And that Travis Wood guy makes for a pretty good #5!

[DannoMac21]

I would take Wainwright/Carpenter/Garcia/Westbrook/Lohse over our 5.

If you're including the future, and current ages of players in the discussion, then I take our current 5 and run like hell.

[nate82]

I'd say we have better pitching than the Reds but the Cardinals are still really good. I think our pitching is probably better but they are in a pitchers park and have better defense behind them so I'd think the results might favor them a little.

What about Berkman in RF? That is not a good option and if Berkman plays around 100 or so games in RF that is not going to look pretty for their defense. I would put the Cardinals defense in the OF a notch below that of the Brewers. Basically the Cardinals are playing Prince in the OF right now. Their infield defense is a lot better than what the Brewers have but in the outfield with Berkman out there that is not going to be good and will only hurt the Cardinals and the OF in St. Louis is not small so this isn't like Carlos Lee playing LF for the Astros in a smallish part of the OF.

[sbrylski]

I would put the Cardinals defense in the OF a notch below that of the Brewers.

 

Pessimistically, we may have just one above average defensive player in our starting lineup next season (Gomez/Dickerson).

[Ennder]

I would put the Cardinals defense in the OF a notch below that of the Brewers.

 

Pessimistically, we may have just one above average defensive player in our starting lineup next season (Gomez/Dickerson).

 

And by pessimistically I'd say realistically. Our defense right now outside of maybe C is a plus in CF and below average at every other position. Weeks just might be our second best defensive player.

 

On the plus side you can't make an error on a K (other than the C obviously~). We should have fewer players on base against us and fewer balls put in play against us by starters this year than in the past. That can help limit how much damage the defense can do at least somewhat.

[RedFlash2]

I would put the Cardinals above the Brewers by this much >< but only because Carpenter/Wainwright has produce at a high level longer then the Brewers trio. But on the flip side, depending on how well they do jumping from the AL to the NL, Marcum and Grienke should close that gap or even overtake the Cards as best pitching staff in the Central not to mention could even make a case for being the best pitching staff in the NL. Yeah I said it, and yeah I am a fan of a rival of the Brewers.

[The Truth]

Chapman is the wildcard in this discussion. He could be poised to be on a level of Randy Johnson (or not, but he does have filthy stuff). If Chapman becomes one of the best in baseball like I think he might become, then its tough to say.

 

The Cardinals staff is maybe more proven than the Brewers staff. On potential alone the Brewers staff is likely the #3 staff in the NL behind the Phillies & Giants (I think Lincecum is the best player in baseball, stats be damned, the Freak is a freak in the clutch) but potential doesn't win you Championships. I think Marcum will likely surprise many (but not me) and post an ERA around 2.87 ... If Gallardo can pitch like we all know he is capable of, for a full season, and if Greinke pitches like the Cy Young type ace he's capable of, the Brewers will go very far (still alot of "ifs")

 

The thing is, the Brewers have more hitting than just about anyone. We don't actually even need all of our pitchers to have career years to go deep into the playoffs

[nate82]

I would put the Cardinals defense in the OF a notch below that of the Brewers.

 

Pessimistically, we may have just one above average defensive player in our starting lineup next season (Gomez/Dickerson).

I see Braun and Holliday on the same level defensively the same with Rasmus and Gomez. Where the Brewers are better is in RF Hart is a bad OF but he won't have the problems that Berkman will have. Berkman is playing on two bad knees and he really is a 1B/DH option. I just don't see how Berkman is an everyday OF and how the Cardinals are going to overcome his bad defense. LaRussa is going to have to be using his bench a lot in the late innings for defensive replacements for Berkman. Which means the Cardinals lineup will be weaker in the later innings.

[monty57]

Holliday is one of the worst OF I have ever seen play. He is in league with Matt Stairs. To compare his defense with Braun is to do a tremendous disservice to Braun. If Berkman has lost as many steps as everyone believes, the Cards OF defense will be pretty bad this season.

[TooLiveBrew]

Holliday has graded out very well by all the advanced defensive metrics.

[The Truth]

Holliday has graded out very well by all the advanced defensive metrics.

Which does nothing but prove how faulty defensive stats are.

 

I suppose Prince Fielder's defensive stats equal out to "not horrible", too?

 

 

[TooLiveBrew]

No, Prince's are awful. Holliday is a solid fielder, but people remember the error in the postseason a couple years ago. I'm all about using eyes along with stats, but all three main 'new' defensive metrics (UZR, DRS, & TZ) have Holliday as average or better for each of the past 4 seasons. And I really don't recall seeing him stand out as a poor defender in watching games.

 

 

EDIT: Even the 2010 Tangotiger fans scouting report has him as average across the board.

[Ennder]

Holliday is one of the worst OF I have ever seen play. He is in league with Matt Stairs. To compare his defense with Braun is to do a tremendous disservice to Braun. If Berkman has lost as many steps as everyone believes, the Cards OF defense will be pretty bad this season.

You have this backwards, Braun is one of the worst LF in history by age at least. Holliday is roughly average.

[JohnBriggs12]

How I compare the Cards to Brewers:

1, Carpenter vs. Grienke Even. That's assuming Grienke is closer to the 09 version and/or that Carpenter at 36 should regress some.

2. Wainwright vs. Gallardo. Edge to Cards. Wainwright was the best pitcher in the NL last year through mid August but stumbled down the stretch. Yo has yet to be as consistent over a long period.

3. Marcum vs. Garcia. Edge to Brewers. Garcia's numbers were a bit misleading. His WHIP of 1.316 wasn't nearly as good as Marcum's last 3 full seasons. Garcia is not likely to repeat a sub 3.00 ERA.

4. Wolf vs. Westbrook. Even. Both veterans with similar numbers.

5. Narveson vs. Lohse. Edge to Brewers. Lohse was ghastly (worse than Suppan) in 2010 with a WHIP of nearly 1.8 and an ERA over 6 and a half. If you assume Narveson wasn't fluky, he's better than Lohse at this point.

Overall, slight edge to the Brewers.

[Funketown]

Chapman is the wildcard in this discussion. He could be poised to be on a level of Randy Johnson (or not, but he does have filthy stuff). If Chapman becomes one of the best in baseball like I think he might become, then its tough to say.

In AAA last year, Chapman walked 4.94 per 9 innings. His K/BB ratio was <2.5:1. His GB/FB ratio was 0.97. Not to mention that 26 of his 39 appearances were as a RP. His raw talent is absurd, but his performance in AAA last year was not all that impressive. This guy may have quite a long way to go before dominating major league hitters as a starter.

[RyDogg66]

At this point if you were to rank the starting pitchers for the Cards and Brewers it would probably look like this:

 

1. Wainwright

2. Greinke

3. Carpenter

4. Gallardo

5. Marcum

6. Garcia

7. Wolf

8. Westbrook

9. Narveson

10. Lohse

 

Wainwright and Greinke are more or less tied with Wainwright getting the nod for the better 2010 season and experience in the NL Central.

 

Gallardo and Carpenter the same thing, more or less tied but a slight edge for Carpenter due to having been a more complete pitcher more recently.

[cubfan1126]

I like being overlooked. Not that I have anything great to talk about. I'm just sayin'!

[cwolf2012]

"1, Carpenter vs. Grienke Even. That's assuming Grienke is closer to the 09 version and/or that Carpenter at 36 should regress some."

 

If Greinke is '09 Greinke, he is the best pitcher in baseball by a LOT. Carpenter couldn't touch him with a 3.0 WAR pole in 2009. 9.4 WAR! 9.4!!!!

 

"2. Wainwright vs. Gallardo. Edge to Cards. Wainwright was the best pitcher in the NL last year through mid August but stumbled down the stretch. Yo has yet to be as consistent over a long period."

 

Agreed. I would take Wainwright over Gallardo for a season. Gallardo being 4 years younger is nice, though.

 

"3. Marcum vs. Garcia. Edge to Brewers. Garcia's numbers were a bit misleading. His WHIP of 1.316 wasn't nearly as good as Marcum's last 3 full seasons. Garcia is not likely to repeat a sub 3.00 ERA."

 

They are very similar pitchers. I take Marcum only because he has proven it for more than one season. If last year's Garcia is legit, he may be better than Marcum.

 

4. Wolf vs. Westbrook. Even. Both veterans with similar numbers.

 

I'd take Wolf. The worse infield defense that STL is going to play this year is going to hurt Westbrook for sure.

 

"5. Narveson vs. Lohse. Edge to Brewers. Lohse was ghastly (worse than Suppan) in 2010 with a WHIP of nearly 1.8 and an ERA over 6 and a half. If you assume Narveson wasn't fluky, he's better than Lohse at this point."

 

Agreed.

 

All in all, though, the Brewers now have the pitcher with the most upside of any team in the NL Central (and yes, that includes Chapman).

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

Cards & Crew are by far the best staffs with the Reds as a solild #3. Besides general health...that #1 point above may be the key. Carpenter regressed from utterly dominant to just dominant. A little more regression at his age and Greinke returning to '09 form puts the Brewers ahead. At this point I might go slightly in the Cards favor, but the Brewers have more optionality to the upside with their youth. A guy like Greinke not only makes you think they have a shot at the playoffs, but also a shot in the playoffs.

 

Very curious on Garcia as well. I can't see him repeating '10, but I could be wrong. If he repeats that's one heckuva #3.