So is everyone cool with DM now?

[DocBrewPack]

We have all the chips on our side, even if we dont contend, we got players we can unload and restock our farm system in no time. If we do contend and let the players go, we get high draft pick. Otherwise we sign them longterm and have a solid team long term. Maybe need a rebuilding year in there but either way we got Braun and Gallardo for long time. And we got a real contender for the short term.

[logan82]

The only real problem now is if we somehow end up in limbo where we are close enough to look like we can contend but not really close enough to actually contend. There were some who wanted to add last year up until the deadline so we could contend. I think we will be in a contending position so flipping these guys at the deadline in either 2011 or 2012 is realistically out of the question. I think we are at worst in contender limbo.

[Beast Light]

We all know that Suppan was not the #1 or #2 starter heading into the 2009 season. He was coming off of a 4.96 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP in 2008.

 

Yes, and Melvin is smart enough to know that one year isn't enough information to base decisions on. Suppan got the OD start because the team didn't want to put pressure on Gallardo.

 

On July 18, 2009 Suppan had a 4.43 ERA and the Brewers were just two games back. Parra had a 6.36 ERA that year. I'm sure a lot of us were hoping Parra would step forward, but he hadn't done enough to be the #2 starter that year.

Yes, after a few months it was clear that Parra was struggling and didn't turn out to be what the team had hoped. That is obvious. Heading into the 2009 season however, the Brewers were counting on Gallardo and Parra to anchor the rotation and that was a huge mistake. Then, Melvin thought that he could fix the problem by throwing Randy Wolf and Doug Davis at last year's rotation. Another error in judgement.

 

I commend Melvin for his work this offseason but with the way he has built his pitching staffs in his tenure as a Brewer, he has certainly been deserving of some criticism.

[clancyphile]

Doug bought himself about 3 years of job security with this trade. The team should be fine the next 2 seasons, and then the bottom is going to fall out. 2013 will be the first of several awful years and then all bets are off with the entire front office.

 

And unlike 99% of you on here, I don't consider one or two likely first or second round playoff exits the next couple seasons worth the following 5 years of futility.

It could be longer if Weeks, Greinke, and Marcum sign extensions. If Fielder also extends... Doug has built a good team.

The extensions are the X factor here, I think. If they all walk, Doug's not long for GM, but eleven years is a good run.

[Ennder]

There are plenty of nitpicks I can have with Melvin but most of the bigger complaints are due to unreal expectations on how long it takes to rebuild a team that is as bad as the Brewers were. I would expect it to take close to 10 years and it has taken about that long, now the big question is just where we go from here.

[Warning Track Power]

I am cool with Doug Melvin right now. He has built a very, very good team on paper for the upcoming year. My coolness with Melvin may change depending on the resignability of the players he has dealt for and the current core everyday players. To sell the farm for a 2 year window of potential success isn't worth 5-7 years worth of rebuilding in my opinion. Assuming Melvin can work out deals with the acquired Greinke and Marcum OR he is able to flip them at the trade deadline for some decent returns in 2012 will determine my happiness.

 

I'm not sure I can ever get behind longterm losing even if it guaranteed a World Series Championship. I'd rather be competitive year in and year out like the pre-2004 Red Sox, than be the 1997 Marlins.

[bigredrobbo]

I am cool with Doug Melvin right now. He has built a very, very good team on paper for the upcoming year. My coolness with Melvin may change depending on the resignability of the players he has dealt for and the current core everyday players. To sell the farm for a 2 year window of potential success isn't worth 5-7 years worth of rebuilding in my opinion. Assuming Melvin can work out deals with the acquired Greinke and Marcum OR he is able to flip them at the trade deadline for some decent returns in 2012 will determine my happiness.

 

I'm not sure I can ever get behind longterm losing even if it guaranteed a World Series Championship. I'd rather be competitive year in and year out like the pre-2004 Red Sox, than be the 1997 Marlins.

But then the 1997 Marlins became the 2003 Marlins a mere 6 years later...

 

I'm sorry, but give me a WS to tell the grandkids about any day of the week!

[logan82]

A Weeks extension should be the first thing on the list. Without that our lineup takes a bid hit in 2012. After that extending one of Marcum and Greinke Makes things after 2012 look much better. Preferably both. Gamel should lessen the loss of Fielder. A Weeks and Marcum/Greinke extension should keep us competitive until we can develop some more prospects. We really need a good draft in 2011.

[RobDeer 45]

Haha, I laugh when you say we are going to be bad for 5-7 years. If things don't pan out you can trade these guys to replenish. Even if we are contending in 2012 we might have to trade a guy like Grienke if we know we are going to lose him. As I see it we are making a run at 2011 and Doug knows he can restock what he got rid of in 2012 if he needs to. This run has been so much better than what we are used to here in Mil. You can criticize DM for moves but I just can't stand the people looking to push him out of town.

 

This is going to be an exciting year to watch! And hey, we still have some pretty good prospects in the system and can add some more in the years to come.

[logan82]

I laugh when you say we are going to be bad for 5-7 years.

 

It is entirely possible given the state of the farm system. Even with a good draft in 2011 those guys wouldn't be ready until most of our current MLB talent is gone.

 

Even if we are contending in 2012 we might have to trade a guy like Grienke if we know we are going to lose him. As I see it we are making a run at 2011 and Doug knows he can restock what he got rid of in 2012 if he needs to.

 

If we are contending you can't trade a guy like Greinke or Marcum.

[RobDeer 45]

Sorry meant to say if we are contenders going in to 2012. I guess it depends on what happens in 2011. But I think he has to trade him before he loses him, therefore replenishes the system. Same with Marcum and Yo. Hopefully we can extend the new guys but if not it could be a one year window.

[Ennder]

There is no reason we can't contend in 2012. Weeks and Fielder are nice players but they can be replaced for sure. If we have major injury issues that would be the reason we worry about 2012. 2013-2015 are the years that I really worry about.

[RockCoCougars]

I'm very cool with Dayton Moore. As for Melvin, I'm still ticked that he let Rich Harden get away.

[Mr QL]

I'll be cool when I see the results on the field.

[Warning Track Power]

Haha, I laugh when you say we are going to be bad for 5-7 years. If things don't pan out you can trade these guys to replenish. Even if we are contending in 2012 we might have to trade a guy like Grienke if we know we are going to lose him. As I see it we are making a run at 2011 and Doug knows he can restock what he got rid of in 2012 if he needs to. This run has been so much better than what we are used to here in Mil. You can criticize DM for moves but I just can't stand the people looking to push him out of town.

 

This is going to be an exciting year to watch! And hey, we still have some pretty good prospects in the system and can add some more in the years to come.

And this was exactly my point. I didn't say we would be bad for 5-7 years. I said my happiness with DM is predicated on him not selling off 5-7 years of quality baseball for a 1 or 2 year window. If DM can't extend Weeks this year and if he can't extend Greinke or Marcum, it behooves him to move them at the 2012 deadline or else we really would be looking at a period of some pretty bad baseball.

 

 

[RockCoCougars]

I'm glad Melvin is going for it this season instead of playing for 2012 like a lot around here seemed to be resigned to. 'You play to win the game' (quoting Herman Edwards) and if you have a chance to add quality players that will help you achieve this, you do it. The goal is to stockpile wins not prospects. Most 'highly touted' prospects flame out and/or get hurt. Going further, look back on history at trades like this involving multiple young players. Most of the time, the winners (if there are any) seem to be the team getting the 'star'. I can only think of a few occasions (though I'm sure that I may be missing a few) in recent history where the team getting a package of prospects made out like complete bandits on multiple guys..... the Bartolo Colon to Montreal deal , the A.J. Pierzynski to SF deal (which due to injury isn't looking like the steal that it once was). Even the Randy Johnson to Houston deal doesn't look bad 10 years or so later.

 

I'm not so convinced that this team has a two year window to win either. With Braun and Gallardo locked in, and a owner who will spend a little, I see no reason to be so pessimistic.

[Warning Track Power]

I'm glad Melvin is going for it this season instead of playing for 2012 like a lot around here seemed to be resigned to. 'You play to win the game' (quoting Herman Edwards) and if you have a chance to add quality players that will help you achieve this, you do it. The goal is to stockpile wins not prospects. Most 'highly touted' prospects flame out and/or get hurt. Going further, look back on history at trades like this involving multiple young players. Most of the time, the winners (if there are any) seem to be the team getting the 'star'. I can only think of a few occasions (though I'm sure that I may be missing a few) in recent history where the team getting a package of prospects made out like complete bandits on multiple guys..... the Bartolo Colon to Montreal deal , the A.J. Pierzynski to SF deal (which due to injury isn't looking like the steal that it once was). Even the Randy Johnson to Houston deal doesn't look bad 10 years or so later.

 

I'm not so convinced that this team has a two year window to win either. With Braun and Gallardo locked in, and a owner who will spend a little, I see no reason to be so pessimistic.

I agree with you assessment RockCo. I am not at all pessimistic about the Greinke deal. It was an excellent deal that had to be made. I just want to ensure the Brewers do everything they can to remain competitive year after year. I am very excited for the next few seasons but I can't but help have an eye trained to the future where Fielder will be gone after 2011, Weeks could be gone after 2011 and Marcum and Greinke could be gone after 2012. As it stand right now, I am not sure the Brewers have any replacement parts on the farm save Mat Gamel. That's why extending Weeks, Greinke and Marcum should be immediate priorities.

[snyttri]

Cudos to Melvin for assembling a contender. I thought he would be fired before he put another complete team together. Gambling the future is worth the risk.

[monty57]

That's why extending Weeks, Greinke and Marcum should be immediate priorities.

 

I may be wrong, but I'd be very surprised if Weeks and at least one of Marcum and Greinke aren't extended this offseason. If this is done, we will have most of our team locked up for quite a while. We'll take some kind of hit when Gamel takes over Fielder's spot, but not enough to derail the offense. We will also have our minor league pitchers develop, and could be in a position in a year or two where we have more than five MLB-ready starting pitchers, at which point we will be able to trade away a good SP and bring in a good haul to fill in holes elsewhere or re-stock the system with good young talent. For example, Rogers should take over for Narveson sometime this season, and someone like Peralta should take over Wolf's spot, possibly allowing us to trade him after this season.

 

What we're really missing now in the minors are near-MLB-ready bats, which we don't need, as (assuming a Weeks extension) most of the positions are covered for a few years at the MLB level. We will need to address SS and CF, but those aren't generally really expensive positions to upgrade, and if Logan Schafer can stay healthy, he could be our CF in the not-too-distant future.

 

Bottom line: A lot can happen in 2-4 years, and while it's fun to guess it is impossible to know how things will pan out.

[Robideaux]

If Melvin asked for Yuniesky Betancourt to be a part of the Greinke deal, I don't want him as GM of the Brewers.

[Invader3K]

Audio of Doug Melvin on WSSP's "The Big Show" this afternoon.

[sbrylski]

Melvin still doesn't understand the value of defense very well, it seems.

[TooLiveBrew]

Just wanted to bump this thread; the main moves since it was posted were adding Saito & extending Weeks. I know some will still not get on-board with the moves (or philosophy behind them) Melvin has made this offseason, but I certainly can.

 

Marcum

Greinke

Saito

Weeks

This has been as good an offseason as I can remember in my time as a Brewers fan. Since I'm such a huge Weeks fan, that's probably my favorite move of the period, but adding Marcum & especially Greinke are probably more important moves. I was just daydreaming about the 2011 season this morning, and wanted to say that it would be pretty hard for a front office to have a better offseason than the Brewers' has just had.

[logan82]

Minus the inexplicable Kotsay signing the offseason has been very good.

 

I like the Marcum/Lawrie trade a lot better now that Weeks is extended.

[endaround]

Minus the inexplicable Kotsay signing the offseason has been very good.

 

I like the Marcum/Lawrie trade a lot better now that Weeks is extended.

At this point I really wonder if the Kotsay signing was to get Weeks resigned. You have a guy with a post All Star break bonus almost encouraging you to cut him.