Greinke traded to Milwaukee; Latest -- more on how it came about

[logan82]

Who's complaining? There are discussions about how we should improve SS and how bad our minor league system is. No real complaining but I don't listen to sports talk radio because most of it is garbage.

[Thurston Fluff]

There are discussions about how we should improve SS and how bad our minor league system is

 

In that one sentence you kind of made his point. I think when you say something like "how bad our minor league system is," it paints a negative picture. It's sort of like saying we know it's bad but how bad is it? It may not be bad at all. I agree it is a legitimate debate to have and am not saying there isn't reason to think it is bad. Just that it was done with a negative connotation.

[logan82]

There are discussions about how we should improve SS and how bad our minor league system is

 

In that one sentence you kind of made his point. I think when you say something like "how bad our minor league system is," it paints a negative picture. It's sort of like saying we know it's bad but how bad is it? It may not be bad at all. I agree it is a legitimate debate to have and am not saying there isn't reason to think it is bad. Just that it was done with a negative connotation.

I just disagree with portraying most Brewers fans as miserable. Our MiLB system is bad right now. How are we miserable because we are discussing it? We are all excited about 2011. Do we really need to discuss that?

[RyDogg66]

Our minor league system is bad right now. But not because of poor baseball decisions as in the 90s and early 2000s, it is bad because we gutted to get much, much better in the majors. Therefore, rather than lamenting the fact that the cupboards are bare, shouldnt we be imagining a scenario where we are very competative in 2011 and 2012 while also replenishing the system with two top 15 picks in 2011 draft and presumably 3 top picks next year if Fielder leaves and potentially if Weeks leaves?

[BrewCrewForever]

Our minor league system is bad right now. But not because of poor baseball decisions as in the 90s and early 2000s, it is bad because we gutted to get much, much better in the majors. Therefore, rather than lamenting the fact that the cupboards are bare, shouldnt we be imagining a scenario where we are very competative in 2011 and 2012 while also replenishing the system with two top 15 picks in 2011 draft and presumably 3 top picks next year if Fielder leaves and potentially if Weeks leaves?

Great point RyDogg. Things may be bleak in the minors right now, but we have time to replenish while we are competitive at the big league level the next 2+ years. It is up to Doug and his staff to draft well.

[logan82]

It is a discussion board. Most are aware that we will get picks and replenish the system. Most people are really happy that the Brewers will be good next year. Neither are really topics that will create much discussion. I am not sure what you expect. Without a dissenting opinion there is no discussion. If you want a discussion about it look in the MLB draft forum. Most people are not informed enough(myself included) to discuss future draft picks.

[kramnoj]

Without a dissenting opinion there is no discussion.

 

That's interesting. There was a fair amount of discussion about how bad Betancourt is, before anyone tried to dissent. In fact a separate thread had to be created to break off from the discussion that the Brewers acquired Greinke.

 

Of course there can be discussion without a dissenting opinion. It may be boring for people who choose to find negatives, but that doesn't mean it can't happen.

 

People are complaining. I don't know why anyone would try to deny that. Heck, one moderator said he was going to be cheesed if the Brewers got Greinke without an extension. There was preemptive complaining.

 

But I don't know how many people are complaining, or just offering an opinion. I don't know if the majority of people here are happy, apprehensive, or upset. I would guess the people that are upset are in the minority, but just more vocal.

[homer]

I dont know, I think the 21st century sports fan is more vocal about complaining;

I don't think that's limited to sports fans.

 

We as humans have a quota on complaints. Its wired into our DNA. 150 years ago we complained about not getting enough to eat. Now that that's taken care of we complain when all our baseball games are not in HD.

[ramssuperbowl99]

There are discussions about how we should improve SS and how bad our minor league system is

 

In that one sentence you kind of made his point. I think when you say something like "how bad our minor league system is," it paints a negative picture. It's sort of like saying we know it's bad but how bad is it? It may not be bad at all. I agree it is a legitimate debate to have and am not saying there isn't reason to think it is bad. Just that it was done with a negative connotation.

No. Saying "how bad our minor league system is" paints an accurate picture. And it is bad. We might get some decent innings out of our pitchers, but there isn't a single person in the system who has a good shot at becoming more than a mid-rotation starter. Jim Callis said we had the worst system in baseball pre-gutting the system (I disagree before the system) and Kevin Goldstein summed up the system by saying, "let's not talk about it."

Don't get the wrong impression. I wouldn't have done the Lawrie-Marcum deal, but the Greinke deal was such a coup that the Brewers would have been crazy not to pull the trigger. And if you combined the deals, I'd do both at the same time. But that doesn't mean that we can't talk about a lacking approach to developing elite minor league talent. When other teams went for high ceiling high schoolers in the 2010 draft and paid them, the Brewers drafted guys like Jimmy Nelson, Tyler Thornburg and Matt Miller. Those are nice prospects, but the highest ceiling in that list is a #3 and one of those is almost assuredly a reliever.

Let's go back 1 year and look at the draft:

1. Eric Arnett - He was a good pick at the time, but just hasn't worked out. No complaints here, since he had a #2/flirting with ace type ceiling.

1a. Kentrail Davis - Done well in the minor leagues, good pick.

1a. Kyle Heckathorn - Fireballer with substantial ceiling.

2. Max Walla - Toolsy HSer. Hasn't worked so far, but a breakout candidate.

2. Cameron Garfield - Toosly HS catcher. Could improve in Low A and still has ability.

3. Josh Prince - Low ceiling college SS.

4. Brooks Hall - Bonus baby who throws mid-90's gas from a 6'5" frame. The kind of guy we should be picking here every single year.

5. D'Vontrey Richardson - Breakout candidate who is a legitimate 20-20 CFer.

Has that draft worked out well? Not yet. Walla, Garfield, Hall, Richardson, Heckathorn, and Davis all have legitimate breakout potential and Arnett could figure it out. Whether it works out well or not, there's clearly impact MLB potential all throughout the first 5 rounds.

In 2010, we put all our eggs in the Dylan Covey basket. When he didn't sign, we spent the lowest amount on our draft in 2010. That's not how we develop our system. Hopefully, we see Melvin return to 2009 form in 2011, but I don't see how we are somehow being "miserable" by noticing what is a potentially serious flaw in the Brewers' management philosophy.

[monty57]

ramssuperbowl, I don't want to be too nitpicky, but you first claim that "there isn't a single person in the system who has a good shot at becoming more than a mid-rotation starter," and then, in summing up the 2009 draft mention that Arnett has a "#2/flirting with ace type ceiling," Heckathorn has a "substantial ceiling," and Hall is a "Bonus baby who throws mid-90's gas from a 6'5" frame." And that was only one draft, which of course didn't include guys like Rogers and Rivas, who could be helping out the MLB clubs as early as this season. Now, I don't know what you mean by "good shot," but we definitely still have a lot of arms who should help at the MLB level, a number of which have a high ceiling.

 

I don't follow pre-draft prospects, but I do understand your frustration this past season, as I read posts submitted by the draft-knowledgable people on this site lamenting our passing on some good-but-expensive talent. I do take that with a grain of salt, as Melvin has complained that certain players basically tell some teams not to bother drafting them, as they won't sign with certain teams if drafted. Plus, the whole Covey thing is sad all around, and I can only hope he overcomes his health issues.

[ramssuperbowl99]

ramssuperbowl, I don't want to be too nitpicky, but you first claim that "there isn't a single person in the system who has a good shot at becoming more than a mid-rotation starter," and then, in summing up the 2009 draft mention that Arnett has a "#2/flirting with ace type ceiling," Heckathorn has a "substantial ceiling," and Hall is a "Bonus baby who throws mid-90's gas from a 6'5" frame." And that was only one draft, which of course didn't include guys like Rogers and Rivas, who could be helping out the MLB clubs as early as this season. Now, I don't know what you mean by "good shot," but we definitely still have a lot of arms who should help at the MLB level, a number of which have a high ceiling.

 

I don't follow pre-draft prospects, but I do understand your frustration this past season, as I read posts submitted by the draft-knowledgable people on this site lamenting our passing on some good-but-expensive talent. I do take that with a grain of salt, as Melvin has complained that certain players basically tell some teams not to bother drafting them, as they won't sign with certain teams if drafted. Plus, the whole Covey thing is sad all around, and I can only hope he overcomes his health issues.

The way Arnett has started and with how far away from the majors Brooks Hall is, they don't have a good shot of being anything special in the MLB. And, with Arnett, who knows at this point.

Heckathorn hasn't been what we thought he would be. He just hasn't shown the secondary stuff to be more than a #3-4.

But, specifics aside, we really, really cheaped out outside of the 1st round this past draft. That's part of the reason our system is where it is.

 

[jhart05]

I really don't care what their minor league system looks like right now.

 

I'm going to be 40 years old this year, my Dad isn't getting any younger either. We're sick of watching loosing baseball for most of our lives. (Course he was lucky enough to be able to see the 50's Braves.)

 

What are we supposed to do, sit back and wait another 5 years for another group like Fielder, Weeks, Braun, Hart, Escobar, Cain, etc... to come along.? Forget that noise.

 

We support both these trades for top of the line starting pitching. It's about time the Brewers made these kinds of moves instead of sitting back and watching other teams make them, then go to the playoffs ahead of our team.

 

GO CREW!!! PLAYOFFS IN 2011!!!

[TooLiveBrew]

We support both these trades for top of the line starting pitching.

 

You know, I have to admit that I keep forgetting the Brewers traded for Marcum, too. Sorry Shaun!

[Thurston Fluff]

No. Saying "how bad our minor league system is" paints an accurate picture. And it is bad.

 

It could be considered young or even average. It is not a foregone conclusion that is is bad. Stating that there can be no argument made other than it is bad is pessimistic. Bad is when you don't have any prospects. Bad is when Ron Belliard and Ben Hendrickson are the only legitimate prospects in the entire system.

We have a decent number high ceiling players as well as a plenty of serviceable ones. Hell look at your own list and read what you said about them. That was not even a complete list of major league potential guys. What we don't have a lot of is AAA players close to being major league ready.

[DuWayne Steurer]

No. Saying "how bad our minor league system is" paints an accurate picture. And it is bad.

 

It could be considered young or even average. It is not a foregone conclusion that is is bad. Stating that there can be no argument made other than it is bad is pessimistic. Bad is when you don't have any prospects. Bad is when Ron Belliard and Ben Hendrickson are the only legitimate prospects in the entire system.

We have a decent number high ceiling players as well as a plenty of serviceable ones. Hell look at your own list and read what you said about them. That was not even a complete list of major league potential guys. What we don't have a lot of is AAA players close to being major league ready.

Didn't Jim Callis say we were 'dead last' going into his 2011 rankings BEFORE the Greinke trade? Now Callis isn't the be all end all authority, but he's not the only guy that's saying our farm system is stripped.

 

I've read at least a few national guys who have said the same thing. Now GRANTED, the national guys aren't going to be as knowledgeable about the system, but I do not think it's a stretch at all right now to call the farm system's prospects "bad" as it relates to the expected major league talent it may produce.

[Thurston Fluff]

but I do not think it's a stretch at all right now to call the farm system's prospects "bad" as it relates to the expected major league talent it may produce.

 

I agree it isn't a stretch. It also isn't a stretch to say it's not bad just young nor that it's average. What I disagreed with is that the only discussion is how bad it is vs what shape it's in.

[TooLiveBrew]

It could be considered young or even average.

 

No, not really. It's just a bad system, compared to the rest of the league. It's a stretch to try & call it average, because it isn't. When you start praising a MiLB system for being young, you know there's not really much else good to say. Sort of like 'She's got a great personality'. Our MiLB system has a great personality right now.

 

That's not to say there aren't talented young players in the system. Just that when you compare the Brewers' around the league, it's not good.

[Thurston Fluff]

I guess it just depends on what criteria one uses. I think we have a good number of high ceiling guys, specially pitchers, who have a long way to go. I don't see that as bad as much as simply not ready. I know many people like to rate the systems based on how advanced it is along with ceiling level but in this case I'm not sure that really tells us much about the system as a whole. I base that partially on how good it was before we traded all the higher level talent along with the fact that the same people who developed that talent is largely still here.

To me a bad system takes 5 years to rebuild because there is no talent. The current Brewer system has talent just not very advanced. In two years some of the A talent will be in AAA knocking on the door. Maybe I'm wrong on that level of talent but I do not think I am wrong that there is at least room for debate on the subject.

[TooLiveBrew]

I responded here, since that's what we're discussing.

[ramssuperbowl99]

It could be considered young or even average. It is not a foregone conclusion that is is bad. Stating that there can be no argument made other than it is bad is pessimistic. Bad is when you don't have any prospects. Bad is when Ron Belliard and Ben Hendrickson are the only legitimate prospects in the entire system.

We have a decent number high ceiling players as well as a plenty of serviceable ones. Hell look at your own list and read what you said about them. That was not even a complete list of major league potential guys. What we don't have a lot of is AAA players close to being major league ready.

I hope it's considered young. All farm systems are young. But no, it is not average. You will not find one objective scout, evaluator, or anyone who says so.

Stating there is no other argument than bad is just a fact. No emotion involved.

Your definition of bad means every single farm in the MLB is currently "OMG AWESOME FARM!!!!" and that's just not true. Bad is on the bottom of the curve. And we are bad.

[monty57]

I've mentioned this before, but I think you have to look at the system as a whole, and not separate the minor leagues and major leagues. The Brewers have a young MLB team, with many players under control for a long time. The reason our minor leagues are less-than-stellar is that we've graduated many players to the majors and traded others for top-line MLB talent. Of course I would like to have a stacked MLB team and a stacked MiLB system, but if I had to choose, I'd certainly take a good MLB team with a lot of players locked up long term, but not many MLB-ready MiLB players than a bad MLB team with more promising MiLB players.

 

Put another way, we shouldn't need a C, 3B/1B, LF, RF or relief pitcher for a long time. Depending on how the contract talks go, we could add 2B and top-of-the-rotation starter to the list as well. We also have young CFs on the MLB roster, they just aren't that good, or maybe that should be said "haven't lived up to potential." We do have some promising CFs in the minors, so really what the Brewers need in the minors that they don't have is a near-ready SS.

[TooLiveBrew]

I was thinking about Escobar today, and I wonder what others think about the comparison to Orlando Cabrera, in terms of offense. I'm guessing Escobar profiles to be a better defender than Cabrera has been, but the career slash line of .274/.320/.395/.715 looks like a reasonable comp. heading forward. Escobar might develop into a better hitter than that, but not without adding muscle imo.

 

 

EDIT: Maybe Escobar's own MiLB career line is a better guesstimate -- .293/.333/.377/.709. Probably will wind up somewhere between those two slash lines.

[Mass Haas]

According to Gord Ash, Zach's the Opening day starter.

[Patrick425]

Couldn't tell from reading that....Opening Day in Milwaukee or Opening Day in Cincy?

[JohnBriggs12]

Opening Day is in Cincy this year.

 

The "home opener" is just that, the "home opener".