General Lineup Discussion: 2011

[logan82]

You know RR finally got it right when a week goes by without any lineup comments.

Not really. There has been plenty of comment about his lineups in other threads. he has put out a few good lineups over the last week but just as soon as you think "maybe DPR is figuring it out" he plays Kotsay in CF.

 

Holy crap. I didn't even check the lineup before posting that. I really really don't like our manager.

 

[Bombers]

When T-Plush comes back where does he bat in the order? With Hart being hot, I doubt they put him in the 2 hole. Unless the feel Hart provides Fielder better protection than McGehee. I know many are against this but I could see T-Plush taking the 9 hole.

 

Weeks

Hart

Braun

Fielder

McGehee

Lucroy

Counsell

Pitcher

T-Plush

[FVBrewerFan]

I would go Morgan, Betancourt/Counsell, Pitcher. Then again, I have this weird habit of giving the best hitters the most possible ABs.

[PrinceEatMeat]

I'd go with

 

Weeks

Hart

Braun

Fielder

McGehee

Lucroy

Morgan

Betancourt

Pitcher

[logan82]

I wouldn't put Betancourt in front of the pitcher. It is the one place in the order I think actually gets pitched differently because of the next hitter. Betancourt swings at way to many bad pitches. Then again I am not sure why any pitcher would actually throw a strike to Betancourt.

[FVBrewerFan]

You don't think Braun gets pitched differently depending on whether it's a RH/LH pitcher? You don't think Fielder gets pitched differently for the same reason? Bottom line, pitchers will pitch to guys they think they can out. And Bettancourt can hit clean-up or 8th, and he'll still get himself out. I rather he do it hitting 8th. this whole "clearing the pitcher" thing is nonsense. If Morgan gets on base hitting 7th or 8th, it has the same effect of clearing the pitcher one batter sooner right?

 

Wouldn't you rather give Morgan one more potential AB than Bettancourt?

[PrinceEatMeat]

You don't think Braun gets pitched differently depending on whether it's a RH/LH pitcher? You don't think Fielder gets pitched differently for the same reason? Bottom line, pitchers will pitch to guys they think they can out. And Bettancourt can hit clean-up or 8th, and he'll still get himself out. I rather he do it hitting 8th. this whole "clearing the pitcher" thing is nonsense. If Morgan gets on base hitting 7th or 8th, it has the same effect of clearing the pitcher one batter sooner right?

 

Wouldn't you rather give Morgan one more potential AB than Bettancourt?

Totally agree. I really hate hearing the argument about players being pitched definitely based on where the hit in the lineup. In actuality, the difference is extremely minimal, if different at all. I'd rather just have our worst hitter hitting 8th. That makes more sense to me. I don't see why Betancourt should hit in front of anyone in this lineup. Just put the 7 best hitters 1-7, and Betancourt 8th.

[adambr2]

Even in the midst of a nice winning streak, what is hurting the offense right now is the production from the 5-hole. Teams have absolutely no reason to pitch to Prince if they don't have to because he's usually followed by McGehee and Betancourt. Unfortunately, I think Casey is starting to show he's pretty much what many people figured he might be all along -- just a guy, albeit the best option we have for an everyday starter at 3rd.

 

Going forward, if we want to maximize our run production and protect Braun and Prince as best as possible, I see no reason that Lucroy and Hart shouldn't man the 2 and 5 holes in some order.

 

Morgan is back in 2 days. How about an everyday lineup of:

 

Weeks

Lucroy

Braun

Fielder

Hart

McGehee

Betancourt

Morgan

 

Now we're really putting all of our best bats together, and with Morgan down in the 8-hole (I wouldn't mind seeing him leadoff and see Weeks moved into more of a run producing slot, but I don't think it's going to happen anyway), we still get good production from the 8-hole which Roenicke so covets for some reason.

[topper09er]

On Friday vs the RHP I'd go:

 

Weeks

Plush

Braun

Fielder

Hart

Lucroy

McGehee

Counsell/Yuni whatever

P

 

Of course this wont happen because the 5 spot is "McGehee's spot" and he "earned it" even though he has been struggling. If you take it away from him he will probably pull a Posada and refuse to play in the game.

[topper09er]

McGehee:

 

Split	G	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
Last 28 days	25	104	95	11	23	5	0	2	8	0	0	9	15	.242	.308	.358	.666

[ReverendBrewmeister]

Doubt we'd ever see it, but I'd like a lineup like this considered:

 

Morgan - CF

Hart - RF

Braun - LF

Fielder - 1B

Weeks - 2B

Lucroy - C

McGehee - 3B

Betancourt - SS

PITCHER

(Perhaps Weeks could move to #2 and Hart to #5.)

[PrinceEatMeat]

A lineup we could realistically see if McGehee continues to struggle, and Morgan keeps hitting would be something like this.

 

Weeks

Morgan

Braun

Fielder

Hart

McGehee

Betancourt

Lucroy

 

This isn't the exact lineup I would go with, but I could see Roenicke going with it.

[adambr2]

The lineup optimizer at baseballmusings.com has this as the best possible sabermetric lineup that we could have, at a whopping 5.041 runs per game, based on their current projected numbers for the rest of the season:

 

Braun

Fielder

Lucroy

Hart

Weeks

Betancourt

McGehee

Pitcher

Morgan

[berniebrewer4life]

If you take it away from him he will probably pull a Posada and refuse to play in the game.

Did McGehee say something to the media I've missed? I see no reason for such an outburst from him. I think he may not like it, but i don't think he would stop playing.

[topper09er]

If you take it away from him he will probably pull a Posada and refuse to play in the game.

Did McGehee say something to the media I've missed? I see no reason for such an outburst from him. I think he may not like it, but i don't think he would stop playing.

No he didnt say anything I just have a feeling about 95% of MLB players have this attitude, or at least among every day starting players. I could be totally wrong. Would you have expected Posada to react the way he did?

[FVBrewerFan]

The Posada thing was overblown. A vet who was demoted, and probably did the right thing if he wasn't read to play that day. It would have been one day thing, then he would have been back no questions asked. But NY being NY, the media found out and made it a big story. I don't think Posada had a bad attitude. Nor do I think Casey would throw a fit if he got pushed down the lineup.

 

McGehee has shown for two years he can produce in the 5 spot. That's why I have no problem with RR giving him some time. At some point though, this lineup needs to be tweaked. Exactly how remains to be seen, because we have to see if Morgan can keep hitting anywhere close to the way he staarted the season. Can Lucroy keep it up? Will McGehee struggle? If all of those things are true I could come around to this lineup, especially vs RHP. Yea...I like it a lot.

 

Weeks

Morgan

Braun

Fielder

Hart

Lucroy

McGehee

Betancourt

Parra

[Ennder]

If they swap around the lineup every time someone has a little slump there will never be any continuity to it. There is no reason to be in a rush to lower McGehee in the order.

[danzig6767]

Even in the midst of a nice winning streak, what is hurting the offense right now is the production from the 5-hole. Teams have absolutely no reason to pitch to Prince if they don't have to because he's usually followed by McGehee and Betancourt.

If teams have no reason to pitch to Prince, how is he leading the NL in RBI's along with having 11 home runs?

 

Last year with McGehee hitting much better, Prince at the end of May had only 19 RBI and 7 home runs, this year he has 11/41. Last year at the end of May, Prince had been walked 33 times and so far this year he has been walked only 23 times.

 

So even though last year up through May Casey was hitting much better than he has this year, Prince still has higher production this year and is being walked at a slightly lesser rate. Hell, a prime example was the 14 inning game vs Colorado. They were winning by a run in the 14th inning and didn't "pitch around" Fielder, even though struggling McGehee was on deck.

[adambr2]

Even in the midst of a nice winning streak, what is hurting the offense right now is the production from the 5-hole. Teams have absolutely no reason to pitch to Prince if they don't have to because he's usually followed by McGehee and Betancourt.

If teams have no reason to pitch to Prince, how is he leading the NL in RBI's along with having 11 home runs?

 

Last year with McGehee hitting much better, Prince at the end of May had only 19 RBI and 7 home runs, this year he has 11/41. Last year at the end of May, Prince had been walked 33 times and so far this year he has been walked only 23 times.

 

So even though last year up through May Casey was hitting much better than he has this year, Prince still has higher production this year and is being walked at a slightly lesser rate. Hell, a prime example was the 14 inning game vs Colorado. They were winning by a run in the 14th inning and didn't "pitch around" Fielder, even though struggling McGehee was on deck.

 

Just because he leads the league in RBI's doesn't mean he isn't being pitched around. I'm not saying they're going to do it every time, but if McGehee's struggles become more prolonged, you bet you'll see Fielder's IBB's increase. (he's already 2nd in the NL). The Colorado game isn't really what I'm talking about at all. Braun was on 1st at the time, of course they're not going to intentionally walk the tying run into scoring position with 1 out in a 1 run game in extra innings, that would be insane.

 

All I'm saying is that if McGehee continues to put up pedestrian numbers, Fielder will be pitched around whenever the scenario allows. Whereas with Hart or Lucroy batting 5, they may have to think twice about it, or at least we'd have a better shot at making them pay.

[danzig6767]

Even in the midst of a nice winning streak, what is hurting the offense right now is the production from the 5-hole. Teams have absolutely no reason to pitch to Prince if they don't have to because he's usually followed by McGehee and Betancourt.

If teams have no reason to pitch to Prince, how is he leading the NL in RBI's along with having 11 home runs?

 

Last year with McGehee hitting much better, Prince at the end of May had only 19 RBI and 7 home runs, this year he has 11/41. Last year at the end of May, Prince had been walked 33 times and so far this year he has been walked only 23 times.

 

So even though last year up through May Casey was hitting much better than he has this year, Prince still has higher production this year and is being walked at a slightly lesser rate. Hell, a prime example was the 14 inning game vs Colorado. They were winning by a run in the 14th inning and didn't "pitch around" Fielder, even though struggling McGehee was on deck.

 

Just because he leads the league in RBI's doesn't mean he isn't being pitched around. I'm not saying they're going to do it every time, but if McGehee's struggles become more prolonged, you bet you'll see Fielder's IBB's increase. (he's already 2nd in the NL). The Colorado game isn't really what I'm talking about at all. Braun was on 1st at the time, of course they're not going to intentionally walk the tying run into scoring position with 1 out in a 1 run game in extra innings, that would be insane.

 

All I'm saying is that if McGehee continues to put up pedestrian numbers, Fielder will be pitched around whenever the scenario allows. Whereas with Hart or Lucroy batting 5, they may have to think twice about it, or at least we'd have a better shot at making them pay.

First of all, in select instances where teams will choose to pitch around Prince, they'll do this because he's a better hitter than all of McGehee, Lucroy, and Hart. He also tends to get intentionally walked later in games where there is a guy on second with firstbase open, two outs, and a righthander on the mound. So instead of hassling with bringing in a lefty, they just walk Prince and leave the righthander in to face McGehee and my guess is they'd do the same if Lucroy was batting fifth instead. It's quite rare to see teams intentionally walk Prince with nobody on base or if someone is already on firstbase. Almost always his intentional walks seem to come from the 6th inning on, with a guy on secondbase, and firstbase open. I'd also guess in most of those cases a righthanded pitcher is in the game also.

 

No question that the team needs more production from McGehee. The 5th hole hitter is generally going to come up with more baserunners on than in other spots given that Prince/Braun bat in front of that 5th hole spot. Braun is carrying a .398 OBP, .380 for Prince. Casey's ability to drive in runs is a vastly vastly bigger job than any very minor impact he'll have in how pitchers go after Fielder. In 2007, Prince managed to hit 50 homers and drive in 120 runs even though for a sizable part of the year he had a reveolving door of guys batting after him like Johnny Estrada, Bill Hall, Geoff Jenkins, and Kevin Mench. The reason why isn't complicated. Prince has always been a patient hitter and walks cause problems for pitchers, so in the vast majority of Fielder at bats, the pitcher is going to be trying hard to get him out, not waste time "pitching around" because he's not a free swinger.

[1992casey]

The lineup optimizer at baseballmusings.com has this as the best possible sabermetric lineup that we could have, at a whopping 5.041 runs per game, based on their current projected numbers for the rest of the season:

 

Braun

Fielder

Lucroy

Hart

Weeks

Betancourt

McGehee

Pitcher

Morgan

That's an interesting lineup. It appears that this gizmo is placing a lot of weight on the value of

the leadoff hitter, which is likely why Braun and Fielder are #1 and #2.

 

I'm kind of surprised to see the player who's probably the team's fourth best hitter put at cleanup. I'm not so surprised to see Lucroy at #3; my guess is that the optimizer is assuming he's the team's fifth best hitter.

 

If I were to make one change in this lineup, it'd be to flip Hart and Weeks. That would put Rickie's OBP advantage in the cleanup spot.

[rluzinski]

The lineup optimizer at baseballmusings is junk. It's based on a study that took the weighted value of BA (I think), OBP and SLG at each batting position in an average lineup. This tool suggests that you can make a non-traditional lineup and those weights are still all the same. Not even close.

 

This simulator is much better:

 

http://lineupsimulator.com/FAQ.aspx

[rluzinski]

How about this for a Sunday, "give up" lineup:

 

Weeks 2B

Counsell 3B

Braun LF

Hart RF

Kotsay CF

Rivera 1B

Wilson SS

Nieves C

SP

[TooLiveBrew]

Ugh, I'm going to that game, so that's not even funny!

[logan82]

I would laugh at that lineup but I fear that DPR might actually do that.