General Lineup Discussion: 2011

[greeg35]

I like the way Maddon's teams run in Tampa as a branch off the Scioscia tree....not liking the Scioscia tree itself though http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

Hopefully Roenicke will go more in the Maddon direction.

[Bruce Ciskie]

Gomez stealing bases & being fast has very little to do with his ability to not make outs. Until he improves at getting on base, giving him more at-bats doens't help the offense, it hurts it. He can wreak havoc on the basepaths at the bottom of the order. Meanwhile Weeks & Hart are guys near the top that you want stealing bases, so it's not like the team doesn't have speed up there.

It's a great conundrum, but one where we're probably better off going with Gomez towards the bottom of the order. I don't think it's a big deal, though, because realistically he hits seventh at the lowest (catcher eighth and pitcher ninth). That means he gets about half a plate appearance per game more if he hits second.

 

Of course, if we can find a way to get Gomez to take a few more walks and hit the ball on the ground more, his value increases as a No. 2 hitter, and it could make the offense more dangerous in the upper half of the order.

[logan82]

Gomez stealing bases & being fast has very little to do with his ability to not make outs. Until he improves at getting on base, giving him more at-bats doens't help the offense, it hurts it. He can wreak havoc on the basepaths at the bottom of the order. Meanwhile Weeks & Hart are guys near the top that you want stealing bases, so it's not like the team doesn't have speed up there.

It's a great conundrum, but one where we're probably better off going with Gomez towards the bottom of the order. I don't think it's a big deal, though, because realistically he hits seventh at the lowest (catcher eighth and pitcher ninth). That means he gets about half a plate appearance per game more if he hits second.

 

Of course, if we can find a way to get Gomez to take a few more walks and hit the ball on the ground more, his value increases as a No. 2 hitter, and it could make the offense more dangerous in the upper half of the order.

Baldkin wrote:

---

Plate appearances by batting order, NL averages last season:

755, 742, 723, 706, 688, 669, 654, 633, 616

So you want Gomez getting 90 more PA than Hart. You are basically saying you want Gomez to hit for Hart for an entire month.

[Mudville9]

Weeks

Hart

Braun

Fielder

McGehee

Lucroy

Gomez

Betancourt

Pitcher

 

Hopefull Gomez's new approach gets him on base more. Put the free swinger and the pitcher behind him, but everyone's right, Gomez should not get as many PA as the big 5.

[nate82]

I really do not like Hart as a #2 hitter at all and I don't like Gomez there either which also eliminates Betancourt by default as a #6 or #2 hitter. I would prefer to have Gomez as the #8 hitter but if Gomez could somehow become more discipline at the plate he would be best used as the #2 hitter. I would rather have Hart in the #6 spot in the lineup as he is the best option in that spot. The only other option at the #2 spot is Lucroy and I don't really like him in that spot either but he would be the lesser of the two evils in Gomez and Betancourt.

Weeks

Lucroy

Braun

Fielder

McGehee

Hart

Betancourt

Gomez

Pitcher

or you could go with the pitcher batting 8th and have Gomez or Betancourt bat 9th. The pitchers that the Brewers have except for Marcum can all hit fairly well and I am not sure on Greinke so I will put him in the same boat as Marcum as I haven't seen Greinke hit all that much. Narveson, Gallardo, and Wolf can all handle the bat well enough to be the #8 hitter. I wouldn't mind having Gomez batting in the 9th spot.

[rickh150]

Braun in the 2 spot and Fielder in the 3 will give them about 20 more AB each for the year. Big monster reason to switch.

We have no 2 hitter.

This would also get rid of a hated scenerio of Fielder coming up in the first(or other innings) with one on and two outs and the pitcher pitching around him.

It would also give Braun the idea that he has to be a run producer and run scorer, putting him in more running situations (he's still not running in the first with 2 outs and Fielder up no matter who's managing)

Weeks, Braun, Fielder= Molitor, Yount, Cooper?????????? It worked in 82.

Maximize the upper half of the order as much as you possibly can because the bottom is shaky. Don't waste Braun and Fielder's at bats.

 

Weeks

Braun

Fielder

McGehee

Hart

LuCroy

SS

CF

[logan82]

This would also get rid of a hated scenerio of Fielder coming up in the first(or other innings) with one on and two outs and the pitcher pitching around him.

 

 

You are right. It would come up with the hated scenario of Fielder coming up in the first innning with 2 outs and nobody on. They are going to pitch around Fielder.

[owbc]

I do not think "pitching around" is a factor in where Fielder should be placed in lineup. We are really only talking about the 1st inning which accounts for less than 25% of Fielder's plate appearances. Some teams may choose to pitch around him in the 1st inning, but many will just go after him because its early in the game. Left handed starters will probably go after him also. So he's only going to be pitched around less than 15% of the time in the 1st inning. If McGehee has another solid year, that number will decrease further.

 

The reasons for batting Fielder 3rd instead of 4th are more convincing. The scenario is avoided where Fielder leads off the 2nd inning, where he will be pitched to but not have any run-producing opportunities and block the running game if he does get on. He gets additional at-bats for batting 3rd instead of 4th. He will hit in the first inning of every game.

 

Braun seems like an ideal #2 hitter--high OBP, high speed, and hits a high % of walks, singles, and doubles compared to home runs. Considering the problems at the bottom of the lineup, it is important that Weeks, Braun, and Fielder get to the plate as much as possible. The trio can get an extra 40 PA or so by hitting 1-2-3 instead of 1-3-4.

 

I also think that Weeks (or Gomez as the #8 or #9) should be running when Braun and Fielder are batting. If the pitcher doesn't have to worry about them stealing, then he can concentrate on getting Braun/Fielder out. It is better for our speed guys to create additional pickoff throws and distract the pitcher, even if they do get caught a few more times.

[1992casey]

The reasons for batting Fielder 3rd instead of 4th are more convincing. The scenario is avoided where Fielder leads off the 2nd inning, where he will be pitched to but not have any run-producing opportunities and block the running game if he does get on. He gets additional at-bats for batting 3rd instead of 4th. He will hit in the first inning of every game.

 

The flip side of the same coin is that the #3 hitter comes to the plate more than anyone else with two outs and nobody on base. Given that Prince will likely have the best OBP on the team, I think he's a pretty attractive option for leading off an inning. (The #4 hitter leads off innings more often than anyone other than the leadoff hitter.) I think that the longstanding tradition of placing the a team's best hitter in the cleanup spot is a good one.

 

This won't happen, but I'd like this:

 

Weeks

Braun

McGehee

Fielder

Hart

Lucroy

Take your pick

 

While it's generally important to get your best hitters the most at bats, that's not categorically applicable. The #5 hitter tends to have higher leverage ABs than the #3 hitter, for instance. Compare it to a game of backgammon. Rolling a 3 and a 1 doesn't move your checkers very far, but it's an excellent opening roll because you can cover a strategic spot.

[owbc]

I like the OBP argument Casey and that can definitely be added to the list of reasons to bat Prince #4. The main thing I would like to avoid is keeping a bad hitter out of the #2 spot. However, I can not really envision a lineup with Braun and Fielder separated since they cause bullpen matchup problems late in the game.

 

Based on Gomez' spring training, I am increasingly in favor of him batting in the #6 or #7 slot instead of #8 or #9. He will likely continue to have a very low OBP, but his speed could be utilized to keep the pressure on when the "lesser" part of the lineup is up. He will also see more RBI and sacrifice bunt opportunities.

[1992casey]

The main thing I would like to avoid is keeping a bad hitter out of the #2 spot.

 

That's probably the biggest thing I look for, too. For a long time, the ability to "move the runner over" seemed to be the only qualification for that spot. After a while, OBP started to be respected and managers realized that good hitters should have more ABs than poor hitters.

 

The gurus are now telling us that one of the team's two best hitters should hit second. That isn't happening in general practice, so I'm not going to be upset when a manager doesn't do it. I'll find fault with him for putting a Gomez-esque hitter in the number #2 spot, though. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[TooLiveBrew]

The second column features MLB composite lines for the '10 season, & isn't related specifically to any of the individual players. Obviously SLG is also an important element of offensive performance, but for simplicity's sake I just went with OBP here.

 2010 MLB OBP <span style="text-decoration: underline;">Career OBP</span> <span style="text-decoration: underline;">(Lineup Spot/Position)</span> Weeks .355 .329/.330 Dickerson .356 .334/.326 Braun .364 .360/.337 Fielder .385 .346/.350 McGehee .342 .336/.324 Hart .329 .324/.342 Lucroy .300 .312/.319 Betancourt .296 .313/.319

That's actually a lineup that I feel pretty good about, as opposed to being concerned about black holes. Betancourt at #8 isn't as bad, and obviously Counsell (.344 career OBP, .322 in '10) gives some flexibility against righties there. Against lefties, you could slot Hart or McGehee in at #2, move Lucroy & Betancourt both up a spot, & put Gomez 8th or 9th.

 

Once you factor in the context of player age/improvement for this lineup, it should easily be one of the best in the NL. Ryan, Prince, and Jonathan are all pretty safe bets to have higher OBPs than their career rates. Weeks isn't quite as safe a bet, but will still outperform .355 imo. I think Lucroy's offensive production will improve in general this season, and frankly don't think he'll be far off the '10 MLB catcher line of .249/.319/.381/.701. He'll probably have a slow start due to missing ST, though.

 

I know there are some that don't like Dickerson, but given current personnel, I think he'd actually be a good option as the #2 hitter against righties. He has a MLB OBP north of .360 against RHP, along with a MiLB overall OBP of .366. I think if you forecast something like a .350-.360 OBP from him this season, that's right in line with what he's done as a professional... and actually fairly conservative if you're talking about shielding him from lefties. If Corey Hart can replicate his OBP from last season, he's a good choice for that 2-slot as well. The more I think about it, the more important I believe it is to not let Gomez make tons of outs when Dickerson is a strong candidate to not only outproduce him, but be well above league averages.

[brewtank34]

Now that we now the roster...here we go.

 

1) Weeks

2) Gomez

3) Braun

4) Fielder

5) McGehee

6) Kotsay

7) Kotaras

8) Betancourt

 

This is going to be a pretty potent line-up once Hart and Lucroy get back. I'm still on board with Lucroy being my 'surprise' player of the year.

 

Once this occurs, my line-up will change to Weeks, Gomez, Braun, Fielder, McGehee, Hart, Betancourt, Lucroy.

[JohnBriggs12]

On days where Morgan is in the lineup I'd like to see Weeks moved down to an RBI spot.

 

Something like this:

 

Morgan

Kotsay/Hart

Braun

Fielder

McGehee

Weeks

Betancourt

Kottaras/Lucroy

 

I don't see it happening though. Roenicke is likely to just insert Morgan in the 2 spot, but it's just a thought.

[Rillo]

I think if you were to hit Morgan lead off, it'd be more advantageous to put Weeks 2nd. He's still your best OBP guy. Moving Hart back to where you have Weeks would still give him the RBI opportunities as well. However, I can also see the merits of hitting Morgan 2nd and keeping Weeks in the 1st, it could help Weeks nab a base or two having a lefty hitting behind him.

[tstads20]

I think if you were to hit Morgan lead off, it'd be more advantageous to put Weeks 2nd. He's still your best OBP guy.

Agreed. His OBP certainly warrants him leading off, but I'm still in the boat of wanting to see what he can do with more RBI opportunities. If all goes well for Weeks and he stays healthy, he could be a 30/20 guy.

[Bruce Ciskie]

The main thing I would like to avoid is keeping a bad hitter out of the #2 spot.

 

The gurus are now telling us that one of the team's two best hitters should hit second. That isn't happening in general practice, so I'm not going to be upset when a manager doesn't do it. I'll find fault with him for putting a Gomez-esque hitter in the number #2 spot, though.

 

This is agreeable. A guy like Gomez, who has virtually no track record of sustained success at this level, needs to earn that spot in the batting order. Start him in the 7/8 area, and if he's hitting, move him up.

 

I'd be in favor of putting Hart second once he's healthy. I think it's a virtual crapshoot until he comes back.

[logan82]

Bruce Ciskie wrote:

I'd be in favor of putting Hart second once he's healthy. I think it's a virtual crapshoot until he comes back.

Morgan #2 wouldn't be to bad. Unfortunately I think Kotsay will be starting instead.

[bjkrautk]

Opening Day:

 

Weeks

Kotsay

Braun

Fielder

McGehee

Gomez

Betancourt

Kottaras

 

I give Kotsay the edge over Gomez for the #2 spot, just to make things interesting for opposing managers late in the game (handedness: R-L-R-L-R at the top of the order). Kotsay's righty/lefty splits will at least give managers a temptation to bring in a LHP to face 2-4 in the lineup, giving Braun a chance to revert to the mean against LHPs. It's otherwise a toss up between the hot hand in spring training and the player with the better career OBP whose clearly on the downside of those numbers.

 

"Ideal" lineup

 

Weeks

Gomez / Morgan

Braun

Fielder

Hart

McGehee

Betancourt

Lucroy / Kottaras

 

 

If Gomez has a breakout year, he justifies the spot. If not, Morgan will start against RHP, and should at least get on base often enough for the big hitters. I'd rather run that risk than have 4 consecutive low-OBP players at the bottom half of the lineup (Gomez, Lucroy, Betancourt, Pitcher).

[logan82]

Problem is that Gomez kind of sucks against LHP too.

[Funketown]

Just chiming in. Trying to keep things positive, and looking towards the future, I'd love to see:

 

Weeks

McGehee

Braun

Fielder

Hart

Morgan (vs. R) / Lucroy (vs. L)

Gomez (vs. L) / Lucroy (vs. R)

Counsell (vs. R) / Betancourt (vs. L)

[greeg35]

I actually like that lineup; but I'm sure it would never be done because it would fall into the "mcgehee is an RBI guy" category; which I think is foolish.

[logan82]

Counsell can't really be the big half of a platoon at this point. If he could, SS wouldn't be much of a problem.

[PrinceEatMeat]

It makes no sense to me to have McGehee hitting 2nd over Morgan in that situation. McGehee produces runs, and Morgan doesn't. Morgan is fast and can bunt, and McGehee can't. I wouldn't want McGehee hitting 2nd ever. Hart or Morgan are far better choices IMO.

[tstads20]

On any given day this season, I think I'd like to see a lineup closer to this:

 

2B Weeks

CF Morgan

LF Braun

1B Fielder

RF Hart

3B McGehee

SS Betancourt/Counsell

C Lucroy

P

 

I think it makes more sense to put some speed behind Prince, but someone who can also be a run producer. It makes double plays harder to turn if the hitter is quicker, but Hart also provides similar power and run production McGehee does. McGehee will still get his opportunities too.

 

Ideally, I'd like to see us seek a different shortstop at some point this season, but gotta deal with what we have for now. I have been very unimpressed with Betancourt so far, and expectations we're already low to begin with.