General Lineup Discussion: 2011

[MJLiverock]

Interesting article on fangraphs

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/...1-woba-by-batting-order/

 

The Brewers #2 spot has put up a better wOBA than the 6th and 7th spots in the lineup and nearly matches the #5 spot, even with all the gnashing over CarGo batting in the 2 spot.

[PrinceEatMeat]

Interesting article on fangraphs

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/...1-woba-by-batting-order/

 

The Brewers #2 spot has put up a better wOBA than the 6th and 7th spots in the lineup and nearly matches the #5 spot, even with all the gnashing over CarGo batting in the 2 spot.

No that hard to believe when the 6 and 7 spots were filled by Betancourt, Kotsay, and whatever other crap we put in there until Lucroy finally moved up a week or so ago. And McGehee hasn't been great in the 5 spot.

[MJLiverock]

The article's lineup optimization suggests using the #4 best hitter in the two spot, Gomez's wOBA of .299 would be 5th best on that list for the Brewer's spots making his appearances in the 2 spot not as horrible as made out. To PrinceEatMeat's point, when the alternatives aren't anything better, Gomez in the 2 spot doesn't make RR a complete idiot as he has been called.

[endaround]

No it doesn't. The #2 hitter should be your third best hitter. And saying Gomez is 5th (he's actually 6th) ignores the huge difference between 4th at .372 at Gomez at .299

[rluzinski]

Russ, how did you determine the numbers that you decided to provide?

They are their ZiPS rest-of-season projections from Fangraphs.com.

[MJLiverock]

Well then I must have read it wrong when I looked at this:

Copy.

Here’s how the lineup spots rank in the importance of avoiding outs:

 

#1, #4, #2, #5, #3, #6, #7, #8, #9

 

Gomez's .299 wOBA would be 5th on that list behind the .345 put up by the 8th spot in the lineup which is most likely all LuCroy's hot start. Weeks, Braun, and Prince aren't likely to move so really the only beef should be with using LuCroy in that spot until Hart/Morgan came back.

 

Milwaukee Brewers

Order PA HR SB CS BABIP wOBA

1st 252 9 6 2 .346 .368

2nd 243 7 9 3 .275 .295

3rd 236 12 13 1 .336 .424

4th 232 11 0 0 .290 .390

5th 229 3 0 1 .274 .298

6th 221 2 2 1 .280 .269

7th 217 5 4 1 .226 .246

8th 210 5 3 0 .340 .345

9th 204 4 2 0 .256 .222

[endaround]

Right importance in avoiding outs, not wOBA.

[MJLiverock]

Yeah, I just looked at the #'s assigned in the batting order at first.

 

I also liked his line of

So, you want your best three hitters to hit in the #1, #4, and #2 spots. Distribute them so OBP is higher in the order and SLG is lower. Then place your fourth and fifth best hitters, with the #5 spot usually seeing the better hitter, unless he’s a high-homerun guy. Then place your four remaining hitters in decreasing order of overall hitting ability, with basestealers ahead of singles hitters. Finally, stop talking like the lineup is a make-or-break decision.

[rluzinski]

Finally, stop talking like the lineup is a make-or-break decision.

 

WHO is in the lineup is very important. Also, the silly #2/#8 thing managers do is just a joke. If a batter's second best position to bat is #8, he has no business ever batting 2nd. Moving a guy up and down the ineup one and two spots means almost nothing.

[bobskube]

Here is my unpopular lineup. (At least against righties)

Morgan

Hart

Braun

Prince

Rickie

Mcgehee

Lucroy

Betancourt

Rickie has served his time as a leadoff man and done pretty well but it is time to optimize his talents. He only was thrust in the leadoff role in the Yosty years because they had no other options at the time and he has kinda stuck. I think batting behind Prince would help him flourish even more. He would still see a ton of fastballs too. I think it is an advantage because (a) he is better than McGehee, (b) he is not a rally killing DP hitter, © he can steal bases ahead of Mcgehee so they can avoid GIDP.

I think Morgan can be a solid traditional leadoff man. ---BS

[logan82]

So we optimize Weeks talents by giving more PA to a worse hitter like Hart?

[danzig6767]

Here is my unpopular lineup. (At least against righties)

Morgan

Hart

Braun

Prince

Rickie

Mcgehee

Lucroy

Betancourt

Rickie has served his time as a leadoff man and done pretty well but it is time to optimize his talents. He only was thrust in the leadoff role in the Yosty years because they had no other options at the time and he has kinda stuck. I think batting behind Prince would help him flourish even more. He would still see a ton of fastballs too. I think it is an advantage because (a) he is better than McGehee, (b) he is not a rally killing DP hitter, © he can steal bases ahead of Mcgehee so they can avoid GIDP.

I think Morgan can be a solid traditional leadoff man. ---BS

No way would i move Rickie that far down the order, but at least when a righthander is starting against the Brewers which puts Morgan in the lineup, i'd be fine with this

 

Morgan

Weeks

Braun

Fielder

Hart

McGehee

Lucroy

Betancourt

 

I'd also be fine with flipping McGehee and Lucroy until Casey starts hitting, but flipping Weeks and Morgan vs righthanders would make some sense to me given the power Weeks has. So many of his homers end up being solo shots, so if Morgan hit before Rickie, it could turn some of those solo shots into 2-run homers, while still keeping Weeks high enough in the order to bat in front of Braun and Fielder.

[FVBrewerFan]

Weeks

Morgan

Braun

Fielder

Hart

Lucroy

Green

Betancourt

 

I think it's time to try this.

[adambr2]

Since Weeks and Morgan are pretty much entrenched in the lineup against RHP at #1 and #2, wouldn't it make sense to flip-flop them? Whether a guy is batting #1 or #2 really isn't going to make much difference, except Weeks is a big power threat and Morgan is not, so it seems to me that flipping them would be a good way to pick up some extra runs over the course of the season.

[TooLiveBrew]

Whichever order means RRR won't be telling Weeks to bunt & making me break TVs is the order I want. RRR 'knows' that you have to bunt with the 2 hitter if the leadoff man reaches. I would much prefer the Brewers waste a Morgan PA to a Weeks PA.

[Oxy]

Since Weeks and Morgan are pretty much entrenched in the lineup against RHP at #1 and #2, wouldn't it make sense to flip-flop them? Whether a guy is batting #1 or #2 really isn't going to make much difference, except Weeks is a big power threat and Morgan is not, so it seems to me that flipping them would be a good way to pick up some extra runs over the course of the season.

Logic has very little place in this sort of thing. I honestly thing Roenicke would rather have Lucroy hitting 8th in order to set the table for Weeks than move Weeks from the leadoff spot. At the same time, the team is winning games, so I wouldn't worry about switching anything up until we go through another inevitable cold stretch with the bats.

[Pack Attack]

1.Weeks

2. Morgan

3. Braun

4. Fielder

5. Hart

6. Lucroy

7. McGehee

8. Yuni

 

Wouldn't mind seeing Green brought up and given a shot. Casey is just killing this team right now.

 

We better not see Casey hitting 5th at all this weekend. If he is Larussa will walk Fielder every time he comes up to bat.

[PrinceEatMeat]

Agreed. Hart better be hitting 5th the whole time. McGehee shouldn't even be hitting 6th at this point.

[logan82]

Depends on the handedness of the pitcher. Hart should be at #2 against LHP.

[adambr2]

It almost feels like RR thinks that he can't mess with McGehee in the 5-hole because we're winning. I'd hate to see the consequences if we scored 12 today with Kotsay batting 2nd.

[Schlitz001]

I think McGehee still hitting 5th has to do with RR continuing to show confidence in McGehee because of his track record the past 2 years. I'm not saying I agree with it, just that RR seems to be the type of manager who wants to show that he has faith in his players.

[tstads20]

McGehee has started to respond too, he should have had 2 hits yesterday if not for that unbelievable catch by Jay.

 

I wish they'd pick a more definite spot for Hart though, has value in many spots in this lineup though.

[razzzorsharp]

BA talked about Gamel being called up for the interleague series coming up. If he gets called up, I hope he is in the lineup everyday at first or third.

[Schlitz001]

If Gamel comes up, here's what I'd like to see for interleague play:

 

RHP

 

Weeks

Morgan

Braun

Fielder (DH)

Hart

Gamel (1B)

McGehee

Lucroy

 

Cousell

 

LHP

 

Weeks

Hart

Braun

Fielder (DH)

McGehee

Lucroy

Gamel (1B)

 

Yuni

Gomez

[PrinceEatMeat]

I can dig those lineups.