General Lineup Discussion: 2011

[1992casey]

The lineup optimizer at baseballmusings is junk. It's based on a study that took the weighted value of BA (I think), OBP and SLG at each batting position in an average lineup. This tool suggests that you can make a non-traditional lineup and those weights are still all the same. Not even close.

 

This simulator is much better:

 

http://lineupsimulator.com/FAQ.aspx

Russ, the directions for that simulator say, "For player stats, assume players play [150] games per season," with the 150 being adjustable. Do we have to do something to equalize playing time for the guys we put in our lineups, e.g. making sure that they all have an equal number of ABs? Or does the simulator do that for us? Also, what would be the benefit of changing 150 to something else?

[razzzorsharp]

How about this for a Sunday, "give up" lineup:

 

Wilson 2B

Counsell 3B

Kotsay LF

Morgan RF

Gomez CF

Rivera 1B

Betancourt SS

Nieves C

SP

You might as well go for it.

[Nottso]

logan, why do you refer to Roeneckie as DPR? I'm confrused.

[logan82]

logan, why do you refer to Roeneckie as DPR? I'm confrused.

Dread Pirate Roenicke. He makes a lot of inconceivable moves.

[PrinceEatMeat]

logan, why do you refer to Roeneckie as DPR? I'm confrused.

Dread Pirate Roenicke. He makes a lot of inconceivable moves.

Seeing as you have to explain what it means every time you use it, not sure it serves much of a purpose.

[logan82]

logan, why do you refer to Roeneckie as DPR? I'm confrused.

Dread Pirate Roenicke. He makes a lot of inconceivable moves.

Seeing as you have to explain what it means every time you use it, not sure it serves much of a purpose.

It just means people don't necessarily read every post I make. That is only the second time somebody asked. I am going to keep using it until he starts making more reasonable lineup decisions on a consistent basis.

 

I hope Gamel gets called up to DH for interleague games. I would like to see him bat #2 when he does.

 

Weeks

Gamel

Braun

Fielder

Hart

McGehee

Lucroy

Gomez

Betancourt

[PrinceEatMeat]

I don't have a problem with it. Just saying that I doubt many people know what it means, they just know who you are referring to because it is used within the right context. But yeah, I'd like to see called up as well. I doubt he'll hit second though. Also, why do you have Gomez in that lineup over Morgan? We'd probably see something like this.

 

Weeks

Hart

Braun

Fielder

McGehee

Gamel

Lucroy

Betancourt

Morgan

[logan82]

Still not used to Morgan actually being with the team. I should have just put CF. I doubt Gamel hits #2 also. I think he would be a really good #2 in our lineup though.

[PrinceEatMeat]

Still not used to Morgan actually being with the team. I should have just put CF. I doubt Gamel hits #2 also. I think he would be a really good #2 in our lineup though.

Yeah he would. Hopefully he hits there next year.

[WisconsinSportsRule]

Is it time to move McGehee out of the 5 spot?

[Schlitz001]

Is it time to move McGehee out of the 5 spot?

Who do you want to hit 5th, Betancourt, Lucroy or Gomez? I think he's the best option in the 5th spot right now. A day off might be warranted, but I don't like the other options to hit 5th.

[PrinceEatMeat]

Just move Hart to 5th and bat Morgan 2nd. Simple as that.

[WisconsinSportsRule]

Is it time to move McGehee out of the 5 spot?

Who do you want to hit 5th, Betancourt, Lucroy or Gomez? I think he's the best option in the 5th spot right now. A day off might be warranted, but I don't like the other options to hit 5th.

I'd prefer to use Hart honestly. Even if it's only for a few days just to shake things up. I know we've been really hot at home and we're winning, but McGehee is flat out struggling. Hart isn't ideal either, but Casey isn't providing any of that clutch hitting we saw out of him last year.

[Nottso]

logan, why do you refer to Roeneckie as DPR? I'm confrused.

Dread Pirate Roenicke. He makes a lot of inconceivable moves.

Yargh. Now I'm really lost. How do inconceivable moves make him a pirate?

[adambr2]

McGehee is OPS'ing .674 right now for the season, including .365 SLG. We're not talking small sample size anymore, it's 2 months into the season. Continuing to throw him into the 5-hole is just being stubborn.

 

Frankly, against RHP, I'd go with

 

1 - Weeks

2 - Hart

3 - Braun

4 - Fielder

5 - Lucroy

6 - McGehee

7 - Betancourt

8 - Pitcher

9 - Morgan

 

and really give the power bats at the top of the order some RBI opportunities. But assuming RR will never bat the pitcher 8th and never take Weeks out of the leadoff spot, I'd just plug in Morgan at #2, Hart at #5, Lucroy at #6, McGehee at #7, and Betancourt at #8.

[1992casey]

I think that two months is a small sample size for most purposes, e.g. deciding on a player's long term future or permanently removing him from the lineup without an alternative that's clearly better.

 

Having said that, I do think you can shake up a batting order — at least temporarily — based on a two month sample. In regard to Casey, the case would be strengthened by the fact that the projections weren't necessarily stellar anyway.

 

However, it would seem that two months would definitely be a small sample as it applies to Lucroy. He's exceeding his projections and could easily move back toward the mean.

[rluzinski]

You want to move a guy 1 position down in the order based on 2 months, sure. It's still a small sample. though. That said, it's not like McGehee had a great projection coming into the season:

 

Preseason ZiPS: .272/.322/.430

Updated ZiPS: .266/.320/.420

 

He's making about as many outs as he was projected to. Lucroy's updated projection is pretty close to that already, so if RR wants to go with the hotter player, I wouldn't argue.

[logan82]

logan, why do you refer to Roeneckie as DPR? I'm confrused.

Dread Pirate Roenicke. He makes a lot of inconceivable moves.

Yargh. Now I'm really lost. How do inconceivable moves make him a pirate?

The Princess Bride

[Nottso]

Thanks for clearing it up. I've never seen The Princess Bride, so the reference is lost on me. Carry on.

[adambr2]

McGehee is becoming a liability batting #5 behind Prince.

 

Easy fix -- Morgan to #2, Hart to #5. (I'd prefer Morgan #1, Weeks #2, but since that won't happen, I'll hope for this.). Move McGehee down to #7 behind Lucroy. Better for the team right now as we have better protection for Prince, and better for McGehee to lighten the pressure.

[logan82]

Morgan #2 against RHP is probably the best choice.

 

Weeks

Morgan

Braun

Fielder

Hart

McGehee

Betancourt

Lucroy

Pitcher

[rluzinski]

The lineup optimizer at baseballmusings is junk. It's based on a study that took the weighted value of BA (I think), OBP and SLG at each batting position in an average lineup. This tool suggests that you can make a non-traditional lineup and those weights are still all the same. Not even close.

 

This simulator is much better:

 

http://lineupsimulator.com/FAQ.aspx

Russ, the directions for that simulator say, "For player stats, assume players play [150] games per season," with the 150 being adjustable. Do we have to do something to equalize playing time for the guys we put in our lineups, e.g. making sure that they all have an equal number of ABs? Or does the simulator do that for us? Also, what would be the benefit of changing 150 to something else?

I believe that is only used for the section that simulates player RBT and Run totals. The runs/game assumes that specific lineup.

Anyone who wants to play, try to copy the text below, paste in MS notepad and save as a .txt file. You can then upload it. It's uses the ZIPS rest-of-season projections from Fangraphs.com

LineupSimulator.com FileVersion=1.0

Rickie Weeks 331 40 52 17 3 14 9 3

Corey Hart 328 24 52 20 3 14 8 4

Ryan Braun 407 40 71 25 4 21 15 3

Prince Fielder 376 66 58 21 1 24 1 1

Casey McGehee 360 29 63 21 1 11 1 1

Jonathon Lucroy 317 27 59 16 1 8 3 1

Yuni Betancourt 360 15 64 20 3 7 2 2

Nyger Morgan 271 20 57 12 4 1 19 8

Starting Pitcher 324 15 50 12 0 4 0 0

[1992casey]

Thanks, Russ. The simulator imports your numbers perfectly. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

 

People should note that in addition to the names and numbers, "LineupSimulator.com FileVersion=1.0" needs to be included in your text file.

 

OS X users can save an uploadable file in TextEdit, but it's necessary to make sure that your file is saved as plain text. Hit the "Make Plain Text" item in the application's Format menu to convert your document to plain text. (If your document is already plain text, the menu item will say "Make Rich Text.")

[rluzinski]

For the record, I am not giving that simulator my 100% endorsement. I am simply saying that it's founded on solid principles. I can't say the same for the baseballmusings one.

 

This simulator is a very basic one. It assumes average base advancement for everyone, does not consider strikeouts and makes no consideration for the handedness of the pitcher. Presuming an average right handed pitcher, I think this will make a pretty decent estimate, however.

[1992casey]

Russ, how did you determine the numbers that you decided to provide?