Rich Harden to A's

[TooLiveBrew]

So you want to add Harden, someone not capable of starting anymore, to the rotation? Or is there someone else you've noted?

[RockCoCougars]

I've been pulled back in.... I'm not saying that Harden is the 'second starter' that is needed this off season, but who says that Harden is not capable of holding down a swing role as the fifth starter/ relief role (probably only needed for a few starts in April) and then earning a spot in the rotation for the rest of the season? People are saying that Harden is a bullpen killer and what not, but what is a guy like Narveson? He seemed to have difficulty getting out of the 5th and/or 6th inning almost every start last year, averaging 5.6 innings per start.

 

I like Cappy, but the fact that he hasn't signed yet tells me that he is going to command more than the Brewers were willing to offer, which was probably more than Harden got. Either that or maybe he is another guy who wants to leave the organization- because of how he was handled last year. Macha gave him one start and then buried him for several weeks. I'm sure that didn't sit well. I don't think that it's a given that he will be back.

[TooLiveBrew]

I like Cappy, but the fact that he hasn't signed yet tells me that he is going to command more than the Brewers were willing to offer

 

I think you assume too much about the offseason. You've had no way of knowing whether or not Melvin even contacted Harden, for instance. We have no way of knowing what's going on with Capuano, or Counsell, or anyone really. Capuano might want to wait until after Christmas to sign. Or he might want to wait until after New Year's. Or maybe Doug Melvin doesn't want to commit too much money before he brings in another SP via trade. Imo you're just rushing to way too many conclusions based on nothing tangible.

 

Haven't heard any news about Pavano & the Twins lately... this tells me he's not going to re-sign there.

[RockCoCougars]

Admittedly, I have no clue whether Melvin inquired about Harden, though they were linked in the rumor blogs. However, he has been quoted that he has offers out to Capuano and Counsell. Counsell is most definitely wavering, as we were supposed to hear 'in a day or two' last week. Capuano is obviously and rightfully gauging the market, but I can't imagine that the Brewers' offer would have been less than $1.5 million with incentives- if so, they really lowballed him.

[BREWCREW5]

Time will tell.... Who would you like to add to the rotation?

I would like to add Cliff Lee, Zack Greinke and Matt Garza to go along with Marcum as the #4 and then Gallardo pulling up the rear at #5. I would like that.

[BREWCREW5]

Counsell is most definitely wavering, as we were supposed to hear 'in a day or two' last week.

Counsell and his agent are doing what free agents due during the offseason. They gauge the market and try to get every dollar they can. This does not mean that he is "wavering". Just because it was reported that Melvin was going to hear back from Counsell's agent "in a day or two" does not mean that their conversation would be published to the local or national media.

[TooLiveBrew]

Counsell is most definitely wavering, as we were supposed to hear 'in a day or two' last week.

 

I'm confused, in one post you say you're going to "throw up in [your] mouth" if Counsell is signed for $1.5M, and in this one you seem to be criticizing Melvin for not already signing a 40-yo contemplating retirement. Or did I misread you somewhere?

 

 

Capuano is obviously and rightfully gauging the market, but I can't imagine that the Brewers' offer would have been less than $1.5 million with incentives- if so, they really lowballed him.

 

I don't understand what good does it do to imagine ways to insult Melvin -- 'If they sign Counsell at Amount X, I will be angry.' 'The Brewers won't offer enough money to sign Capuano.'

 

And while Cappy is certainly an amazing recovery story, I'm not sure I want the Brewers guaranteeing him any significant amount of money this season. I'm guessing he's waiting for the Pavanos & Blantons of the MLB world to find their homes for 2011 before signing with anyone. Even then I'm not sure he'll find a deal over $2M or so. Even though TJ surgery is pretty routine nowadays, Capuano has only thrown 114.2 innings since 2007. Harden is still a 'name guy', in that he used to be a stud. Those guys (like Prior) tend to get the most money out of the 1-yr. deals, not guys like Cappy. I'll be surprised if he can find a deal over $2M, and I'd be willing to bet the Brewers are able to sign him to an incentive-laden deal. They stuck with him throughout his rehab, and I have to think that carries weight with Chris.

[RockCoCougars]

Counsell is most definitely wavering, as we were supposed to hear 'in a day or two' last week.

 

I'm confused, in one post you say you're going to "throw up in [your] mouth" if Counsell is signed for $1.5M, and in this one you seem to be criticizing Melvin for not already signing a 40-yo contemplating retirement. Or did I misread you somewhere?

 

 

Capuano is obviously and rightfully gauging the market, but I can't imagine that the Brewers' offer would have been less than $1.5 million with incentives- if so, they really lowballed him.

 

I don't understand what good does it do to imagine ways to insult Melvin -- 'If they sign Counsell at Amount X, I will be angry.' 'The Brewers won't offer enough money to sign Capuano.'

 

And while Cappy is certainly an amazing recovery story, I'm not sure I want the Brewers guaranteeing him any significant amount of money this season. I'm guessing he's waiting for the Pavanos & Blantons of the MLB world to find their homes for 2011 before signing with anyone. Even then I'm not sure he'll find a deal over $2M or so. Even though TJ surgery is pretty routine nowadays, Capuano has only thrown 114.2 innings since 2007. Harden is still a 'name guy', in that he used to be a stud. Those guys (like Prior) tend to get the most money out of the 1-yr. deals, not guys like Cappy. I'll be surprised if he can find a deal over $2M, and I'd be willing to bet the Brewers are able to sign him to an incentive-laden deal. They stuck with him throughout his rehab, and I have to think that carries weight with Chris.

I don't think that waiting is warranted in the Counsell situation. If they wait on him, the best 'fall through the cracks' guys are going to be picked up elsewhere. If you're going to spend $1 or 2 million, you can certainly do better than Counsell. Personally, I'd replace him with anyone who can play SS and a little 2B if needed for minimum salary. Hometown guy or not, he's going to be 41 years old next year.

 

As for Capuano, though I would have a little more patience, I think this team needs about 7 or 8 guys who are capable of starting in the majors as depth to guard against the inevitable injuries. I'm not counting on Rogers or Jeffress for anything in 2011. Even if they are able to somehow get a #1/#2 like Greinke or Garza (not Pavano or Blanton- who I would happily take as a #4/#5 if the Phillies will contribute a big chunk of salary), I think that you need to add another guy capable of starting who is cheap with some upside, willing to take a one year deal- which would probably limit them to reclamation projects like (Harden, Webb or Duchscherer). Harden would have fit nicely into that equation, and every day one of these reclamation guys seem to land somewhere, if you wait too long on Capuano, they'll all be gone. I do find it odd that last season, Cappy re-signed in November, and this year we are almost a week from Christmas. I'm not so sure that Capuano will be coming back if he gets a decent offer somewhere else.

[TooLiveBrew]

I don't think that waiting is warranted in the Counsell situation. If they wait on him, the best 'fall through the cracks' guys are going to be picked up elsewhere.

 

The problem continues to be that you don't know if Melvin is or isn't waiting. If anything, there's evidence that he covers his tracks (asking the Dodgers about Loney in case he moves Prince), not that he doesn't.

 

Fwiw, Counsell's going to be 40 for next season, but I know that doesn't change your stance.

 

 

Harden would have fit nicely into that equation, and every day one of these reclamation guys seem to land somewhere, if you wait too long on Capuano, they'll all be gone.

 

No, he wouldn't have, because he can't start anymore. If any MLB team believed he could still start, literally any of them could have beaten OAK's offer to him easily. And yes, if you wait too long, all FAs will sign. However, mid-December doesn't come close to qualifying as "too long". As Texas GM Jon Daniels said late Monday night, "the off-season is just getting underway."

 

 

I do find it odd that last season, Cappy re-signed in November, and this year we are almost a week from Christmas. I'm not so sure that Capuano will be coming back if he gets a decent offer somewhere else.

 

Obviously last year was much, much different circumstances. I'm not sure Capuano will sign with the Brewers, either, but I'm not about to start complaining that he hasn't been signed yet. It seems obvious that he'll wait until Pavano signs, and probably for a Blanton trade, if that seems imminent. If the Brewers still haven't signed Cappy & it's nearing the end of January, then I'll agree that it's probably less & less likely. For now, I just don't think there's a better fit for Chris than staying with the Brewers (but that can change if another trade is made, for example) -- the rotation isn't set, & he pitched well both as a RP & SP last season.

 

I agree with you on the 7-8 pitchers count. What I see right now for '11 contribution is Yo/Marcum/Wolf/Narveson/Rogers, so I'd like to see Cappy & another arm or two added to the mix. Jeffress could surprise & pitch himself into the conversation, so while I don't agree with you on Rogers, overall I do on not counting on anything from Jeffress as a SP in '11. Rogers I think will be up by June or July, so if Melvin is able to trade for another good SP, sign Cappy, & sign maybe one other guy that can work out of the 'pen or start, the Brewers should be alright.

[RockCoCougars]

I don't want to turn this into a Counsell thread, but I didn't understand the logic in paying him twice as much as Felipe Lopez (who is available again) last season. If, as I suspect, Counsell is looking to make somewhere in the neighborhood of what he did last year, the Brewers should pass without blinking and either go with a minimum salary guy like Cruz, or use the money to pursue Lopez (who I might even give a two year deal to) or throw a million or so at someone like Christian Guzman. I see that Geoff Blum went to the Diamondbacks for somewhere in the neighborhood of what Counsell is seeking. I'm not sure how WAR is calculated, but signing Blum would have probably added a few wins for the Brewers just because they won't have to play against him anymore. In my view, all of these guys are better options than Counsell, and are switch hitters as well, which would be nice to have for a change.

[JohnBriggs12]

They had 7-8 starters last year. The problem is that 3 of them were bad (Suppan, Davis, Parra), 3 were just OK (Wolf, Narveson, Bush) and one was slightly above average (Gallardo).

 

The answer isn't the number of guys, but the quality of guys. Marcum figures to be a very big upgrade. Gallardo is fine. Wolf as a number 3's fine, as is Narveson as a #5.

 

They don't need 3-4 guys to fill the last remaining spot. None of the types you'd get competing in that group are capable of replacing the top 3 in your rotation anyway if they went down to injury. In the meantime, you have to park them somewhere if they're veterans. That's why I prefer the 6-7-8 slots be filled by Rogers, Dillard (yes Dillard) and Rivas. They need one more solid guy. I'd prefer a trade for a nice durable guy like Blanton who's in the prime of his career over taking a chance that a high priced Pavano at 35 won't regress. Prior to the Marcum trade, I strongly advocated to bring in a Webb who when good, was very, very good. Maybe you could do a Webb and Capuano, and let them battle it out in spring if the cost is reasonable, but I'm sure the reason Capuano isn't signed is the Brewers doing and not his. He's likely a fall back. For all we know the contract he was offered could have been a minor league deal or a very minimal major league deal. The track record for guys with two Tommy John surgeries on the same arm isn't good. He just didn't log enough innings to convince me or other teams for that matter.

[Funketown]

I don't want to turn this into a Counsell thread, but I didn't understand the logic in paying him twice as much as Felipe Lopez (who is available again) last season. If, as I suspect, Counsell is looking to make somewhere in the neighborhood of what he did last year, the Brewers should pass without blinking and either go with a minimum salary guy like Cruz, or use the money to pursue Lopez (who I might even give a two year deal to) or throw a million or so at someone like Christian Guzman. I see that Geoff Blum went to the Diamondbacks for somewhere in the neighborhood of what Counsell is seeking. I'm not sure how WAR is calculated, but signing Blum would have probably added a few wins for the Brewers just because they won't have to play against him anymore. In my view, all of these guys are better options than Counsell, and are switch hitters as well, which would be nice to have for a change.

- Luis Cruz is Luis Cruz. His career line is .266/.295/.404/.699...in AAA.

- Lopez is terrible at SS, and is mediocre at best at both 2nd and 3rd.

- Guzman's bat has been worse than Counsell's over the past two seasons, and he is at best mediocre at both SS and 2B.

- Geoff Blum has played a total of 35 games at SS over the course of the last four seasons. He is no better at 2B and 3B than Counsell is, and his bat is no better.

[RockCoCougars]

- Luis Cruz is Luis Cruz. His career line is .266/.295/.404/.699...in AAA.

- Lopez is terrible at SS, and is mediocre at best at both 2nd and 3rd.

- Guzman's bat has been worse than Counsell's over the past two seasons, and he is at best mediocre at both SS and 2B.

- Geoff Blum has played a total of 35 games at SS over the course of the last four seasons. He is no better at 2B and 3B than Counsell is, and his bat is no better.

Points taken. That said, in my opinion the Brewers went all in on Escobar when they traded Hardy. Let's be honest, even though he was no great shakes in the field last

year, Escobar's role is to be great defensively and hopefully slightly

above average offensively at some point. Escobar should be penciled in to play 140-150 games next year, so is it really worth the money to pay Counsell $1.5 or $2 million coming off a season like he had solely because he can play SS? If they must spend that kind of money on a backup SS, I'd rather give it to Lopez (or a little bit more) as a bat off the bench, who could play shortstop if needed. Heck, I'd even consider bringing Billy Hall back.

[monty57]

They had 7-8 starters last year. The problem is that 3 of them were bad (Suppan, Davis, Parra), 3 were just OK (Wolf, Narveson, Bush) and one was slightly above average (Gallardo).

 

The answer isn't the number of guys, but the quality of guys. Marcum figures to be a very big upgrade. Gallardo is fine. Wolf as a number 3's fine, as is Narveson as a #5.

 

They don't need 3-4 guys to fill the last remaining spot. None of the types you'd get competing in that group are capable of replacing the top 3 in your rotation anyway if they went down to injury. In the meantime, you have to park them somewhere if they're veterans. That's why I prefer the 6-7-8 slots be filled by Rogers, Dillard (yes Dillard) and Rivas. They need one more solid guy. I'd prefer a trade for a nice durable guy like Blanton who's in the prime of his career over taking a chance that a high priced Pavano at 35 won't regress. Prior to the Marcum trade, I strongly advocated to bring in a Webb who when good, was very, very good. Maybe you could do a Webb and Capuano, and let them battle it out in spring if the cost is reasonable, but I'm sure the reason Capuano isn't signed is the Brewers doing and not his. He's likely a fall back. For all we know the contract he was offered could have been a minor league deal or a very minimal major league deal. The track record for guys with two Tommy John surgeries on the same arm isn't good. He just didn't log enough innings to convince me or other teams for that matter.

Agreed. One of the biggest problems last year was that we had a bunch of gimp SPs taking up roster spaces in the bullpen because they couldn't be sent down to the minors. We finally started playing better once we jettisoned some of the waste, opened up roster spots for guys like Axford, and permanently moved Narveson to the rotation. I like having SP depth, but I much prefer it to be starting every five days in Nashville.