Joe Blanton

[ramssuperbowl99]

Randy Wolf's expected rebound, etc.

Why is Wolf "expected" to rebound? He's in his mid 30s, pitchers don't normally rebound in their mid 30s.

The scientifically proven "can he really be any worse" logic. Seriously though, could Randy Wolf actually be worse in 2011?

[Milltownhooker]

Philly sources said no rush to deal him:) Translation wanted him gone yesterday. Whichever team is willing to eat the most of his contract will get him.

[berniebrewer4life]

I'll take him over pavano. If they will eat most of the contract, it's a deal i'd like to see get done quickly. Obviously he isn't my first choice, but i don't see a lot of better options out there right now.

[Oldcity]

At this point, 87 wins isn't out of the question, which puts us with an outside shot at the Central.

IMO, if the team doesn't look like it could reasonably win 90, there's not much of a point in hanging on to Fielder.

The 87 win mark is the "true talent" level. Or, if we played the season through 100 times, we'd average 87 wins provided we stay healthy. We could win 82 games or 92 games next year.

Right, but a rotation of Yo-Marcum-Wolf-Blanton-Narveson doesn't make the Brewers an 87-win talent level team. Probably more like 83.

[joepepsi]

Phillies were 10-1 in Blanton's last 11 starts and 17-11 overall in his starts in 2010, generally seen as an off year for Blanton.

 

Brewers were 12-19 in Dave Bush's starts in 2010.

 

Blanton's the better pitcher. At one time they were fairly comparable but not now. Blanton throws harder, has better K rate and K/BB rate and gets deeper in games than Bush over the past couple years.

 

Bush hasn't gotten a nibble reported this offseason as a FA. That says it all.

I won't argue with Blanton throwing harder, and his better K-K:BB rates. He probably is a better pitcher. Question is, how much better? If you accept team records when each guy pitches, then you also need to consider Bush had 18 QS in 31 starts, Blanton 16 QS in 28 starts.

 

K rates and K:BB ratios are better predictors of performance, but results are what matters when looking at past performance. Bush was a good as Blanton in 2010.

[dadofandrew]

Marcum and Blanton replacing Bush and the plethora of #5 guys would add a number of projected W's, assuming the rest of the team stayed the same. Don't forget, after April and May of last year, the pitching was far better and they were basically a .500 team. They've already improved the team a great deal with Axford, Braddock, Loe, and others. Even a 4 win gain could easily put them at 85 wins, and then you have to look at "how good would the bullpen be with guys throwing 6-7 frames, rather than 5+?"

[NievesNoNO]

I don't necessarily like Blanton, but it seems like a perfect opportunity for the Brewers to upgrade the staff at a reasonable cost. I certainly like him better than Pavano. Keep our prospects and have a battle for #5 during the Spring. Maybe during the second half guys like Rogers, Jeffress or Rivas can give us a boost with some impactful starting pitching.

 

Gallardo

Marcum

Wolf

Blanton

Parra??

 

Eehh, it could be worse. I'd rather do that then send LuCroy, Cain, or Escobar packing.

[Warning Track Power]

So what we are looking at one of these three options right now?

 

Option #1: Gallardo, Marcum, Wolf, Blanton, Pavano

Option #2: Gallardo, Marcum, Wolf, Pavano, Narveson

Option #3: Gallardo, Marcum, Wolf, Blanton, Narveson

 

I just don't think that a rotation comprised of any of these makes us anything more than a .500 team and keeps us at the same levels we have been at since the 2009 season. The Reds, Cardinals and Cubs STILL would have a better rotation than us in our own division and those three arguably have the equivalent everyday lineup we do. If we are content to keep the status quo to preserve prospects, ok. But let's not fool ourselves into believing that (barring career years from every pitcher) rotation will get us to 90 wins and contending.

[paulmolitor4]

I don't necessarily like Blanton, but it seems like a perfect opportunity for the Brewers to upgrade the staff at a reasonable cost. I certainly like him better than Pavano. Keep our prospects and have a battle for #5 during the Spring. Maybe during the second half guys like Rogers, Jeffress or Rivas can give us a boost with some impactful starting pitching.

 

Gallardo

Marcum

Wolf

Blanton

Parra??

 

Eehh, it could be worse. I'd rather do that then send LuCroy, Cain, or Escobar packing.

I would think Narveson deserves a shot before Parra does. Also, comparing Pavano and Blanton is a fruitless endeavor. For as much as everyone wants argue about it, they are not that much different performance-wise.

 

 

[paulmolitor4]

So what we are looking at one of these three options right now?

 

Option #1: Gallardo, Marcum, Wolf, Blanton, Pavano

Option #2: Gallardo, Marcum, Wolf, Pavano, Narveson

Option #3: Gallardo, Marcum, Wolf, Blanton, Narveson

 

I just don't think that a rotation comprised of any of these makes us anything more than a .500 team and keeps us at the same levels we have been at since the 2009 season. The Reds, Cardinals and Cubs STILL would have a better rotation than us in our own division and those three arguably have the equivalent everyday lineup we do. If we are content to keep the status quo to preserve prospects, ok. But let's not fool ourselves into believing that (barring career years from every pitcher in the rotation those guys) rotation will get us to 90 wins and contending.

I agree. IF we are going to go for it, we need a top of the rotation starter such as Greinke. IF we are not going to go for it, then I'm of the belief that we shouldn't waste money and/or prospects on mediocrity.

 

 

[NievesNoNO]

paulmolitor4[/b]]

NievesNoNO[/b]]I don't necessarily like Blanton, but it seems like a perfect opportunity for the Brewers to upgrade the staff at a reasonable cost. I certainly like him better than Pavano. Keep our prospects and have a battle for #5 during the Spring. Maybe during the second half guys like Rogers, Jeffress or Rivas can give us a boost with some impactful starting pitching.

 

Gallardo

Marcum

Wolf

Blanton

Parra??

 

Eehh, it could be worse. I'd rather do that then send LuCroy, Cain, or Escobar packing.

I would think Narveson deserves a shot before Parra does. Also, comparing Pavano and Blanton is a fruitless endeavor. For as much as everyone wants argue about it, they are not that much different performance-wise.

Narveson, Parra, whoever.... Either one is not really a great option. I'm not sure what Narveson has done to 'deserve' a shot, but that's fine, I still think Parra has the bigger upside so I put him there. I will agree that the difference between Blanton and Pavano won't amount to much, however I will stand by my opinion that Blanton's the better pitcher and will come at about 2-3 million cheaper over the next 2 years. I don't believe Blanton will cost any significant prospects in return.

 

Yes, I would love for Melvin to acquire either Grienke, Garza, or Shields if the price is reasonable. I don't want them to gut the farm to get one though.

[dadofandrew]

Most every team, even the Phillies, has a mediocre bottom of the rotation. Good teams only have a #5, but others have #3-5.

 

I like the depth of the 6th-8th SP's, and I like the staff as is. One more solid arm, they are solid contenders in the Central, and you can easily see the potential for additions come July...they'll certainly have payroll room. I'd love to see Capuano return as depth, but he'll likely look for a team where he can at least join the battle for #4/5, which he won't do if the Brewers add another SP.

[paulmolitor4]

I'm not sure what Narveson has done to 'deserve' a shot, but that's fine, I still think Parra has the bigger upside so I put him there.

I'm guess I'm just basing that off the fact that Narveson was a pretty darn good pitcher after the All-Star break last season. Can he do it over an entire season? I don't know, but he at least deserves a shot.

 

 

[Invader3K]

I think that's true (regarding Narveson). I think Brewers management feels Parra has gotten more than enough opportunity to stick as a starter and has failed. He looked so good out of the bullpen though, I don't know why anyone would want to mess with that again.

[ramssuperbowl99]

IMO, if the team doesn't look like it could reasonably win 90, there's not much of a point in hanging on to Fielder.

The 87 win mark is the "true talent" level. Or, if we played the season through 100 times, we'd average 87 wins provided we stay healthy. We could win 82 games or 92 games next year.

Right, but a rotation of Yo-Marcum-Wolf-Blanton-Narveson doesn't make the Brewers an 87-win talent level team. Probably more like 83.

Why not? Before improvements that we can expect by Marcum leaving the AL East, Wolf rebounding (somewhat) and Blanton leaving the NL East, we made a 6 WAR improvement by not pitching Suppan, by pitching Narveson more, and by acquiring Marcum/Blanton to fill out the rotation.

We also improve our position players. Ryan Braun, Corey Hart, Rickie Weeks and Prince Fielder likely cancel each other out based on regression for Hart/Weeks and improvement for Braun/Fielder. Carlos Gomez not getting ABs improves the club substantially, as does (hopefully) improved performances from Alcides Escobar, Jonathan Lucroy and Lorenzo Cain.

Finally, the back end of our bullpen is miles better. Trevor Hoffman blew 5 games in the first 2 months of the season. That's legendarily bad. John Axford's presence turns 3-5 of those games into victories.

Adding all of this up, and starting from the 77 wins we had in 2010, it's entirely possible that Axford wins us 3 more games, the rotation wins us 6, and we get another isolated win or two from the position players. That's 87. Obviously that isn't the most scientific analysis, but the Brewers should be markedly improved come 2011. Add in fairly substantial regression from the Cardinal's rotation (check out those ERA-ERA predictor splits), and regression from the entire Reds team, and the Brewers are a good bet to be top 3 in the Central and have a shot at the whole enchilada.

 

[reillymcshane]

interesting article comparing Blanton and pavano.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/...-case-where-era-deceive/

 

It basically argues the pitchers were very similar last year - but Blanton is younger and won't cost near as much.

[endaround]

Except Dave Cameron isn't arguing that (while trying to fool you that he is). He's arguing that over their career they are similar. Over the past two seasons Pavano has been greatly superior. Cameron is lying with statistics (again).

[ListachRides]

interesting article comparing Blanton and pavano.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/...-case-where-era-deceive/

 

It basically argues the pitchers were very similar last year - but Blanton is younger and won't cost near as much.

Forgive me a small correction but as many of the comments to the article point out, the article actually argues that the two pitchers have very similar career numbers. Pavano's been better the past two seasons. I agree with the general premise of the article, that Blanton has a better contract than the one Pavano is likely to get and will probably provide better value relative to his contract. However, based on their recent performance there is good reason to believe Pavano will be the better pitcher in 2011. If the Brewers want to make a run at the division this year, that's the argument for preferring Pavano. I don't think there's enough difference between the two to warrant giving Pavano a 3rd year. Assuming that's what it takes to get him, I'd agree that Blanton is the better play.

[endaround]

All this is assuming that Philly is just dumping Blanton for scraps and that hasn't been determined yet.

[craigharmann]

What about trading Hart for Blanton? The Phillies need to replace Werth with a big, lanky guy who can grow a sweet beard.

[Invader3K]

What about trading Hart for Blanton? The Phillies need to replace Werth with a big, lanky guy who can grow a sweet beard.

Hmmm. I don't know. Feels like a bit of an overpay to me.

[JohnBriggs12]

What about trading Hart for Blanton? The Phillies need to replace Werth with a big, lanky guy who can grow a sweet beard.

That would be ludicrous.

 

The Phillies are looking to shed salary. Right now, including Blanton, the Phillies have $76 million committed to their rotation in 2011. They have minimum wage Domonic Brown who was the 15th highest ranked prospect in baseball to replace Werth. They wouldn't want Hart who has more remaining on his contract than Blanton. I can't see the Brewers doing that either. Phillies might offer Blanton and Ibanez for Hart. But I don't see the Brewers going that short term.

 

I'm sure Philly wants something back for Blanton, but something that isn't going to add to their payroll right now. They could use a guy that could occasionally platoon with Brown. I'm not sure Carlos Gomez fits that description, but he'd have value to them as defensive replacement for Ibanez too.

[Warning Track Power]

What about trading Hart for Blanton? The Phillies need to replace Werth with a big, lanky guy who can grow a sweet beard.

That would be ludicrous.

 

The Phillies are looking to shed salary. Right now, including Blanton, the Phillies have $76 million committed to their rotation in 2011. They have minimum wage Domonic Brown who was the 15th highest ranked prospect in baseball to replace Werth. They wouldn't want Hart who has more remaining on his contract than Blanton. I can't see the Brewers doing that either. Phillies might offer Blanton and Ibanez for Hart. But I don't see the Brewers going that short term.

 

I'm sure Philly wants something back for Blanton, but something that isn't going to add to their payroll right now. They could use a guy that could occasionally platoon with Brown. I'm not sure Carlos Gomez fits that description, but he'd have value to them as defensive replacement for Ibanez too.

This offer would be ludicrous as well. What incentive would the Brewers have to accept anything like this.

 

[craigharmann]

What about trading Hart for Blanton? The Phillies need to replace Werth with a big, lanky guy who can grow a sweet beard.

Hmmm. I don't know. Feels like a bit of an overpay to me.

Sorry, whole thing should have been blue....don't know how to do that in a quick reply. I though the second statement would give away the sarcasm. Yes, Hart would be way too much for Blanton, and I'm not really excited about the Brewers picking him up.

[monty57]

I'd guess the Brewers could either pick up most/all of the salary and basically get Blanton for nothing, or they could trade a prospect and have the Phillies eat some/most of the salary (how much they'd pick up being determined by the ability of the prospect).

 

Of course I'd rather have Garza or Shields (I don't think Grienke is even an option anymore), but Blanton would definitely be a solid option if the Rays are asking too much in return. Getting a good pitcher in a salary dump trade could be a decent way to fill out the rotation.

 

I guess one way to look at it would be: Would you rather have Yo, Marcum, Garza, Wolf, Narveson, but not have Axford or Gamel, or have Yo, Marcum, Wolf, Blanton, Narveson while retaining Axford and Gamel? (stealing that possibility from And That's "would you trade Axford" thread).