Joe Blanton

[Invader3K]

I'm not sure Boston couldn't use Blanton. Their rotation has some question marks as well (Matzusaka, etc). I would think they'd have a very tough time proving any collusion.

[Invader3K]

Jeff Fletcher Tweet

 

Brewers supposedly interested in Blanton, but only if Phillies eat some of his contract.

 

(added text to link --1992)

[Hate those Rodents]

Ugh. A rotation of Gallardo/Marcum/Wolf/Blanton/Narveson isn't a playoff caliber rotation.

That group was a combined 61-42 last year. I would think if you're rotation is 19 games over .500 that it's playoff caliber. Obviously not in the same class as Giants or Phils but certainly competitive with the rest of the league.

Now all we need is to sign Looper as a "sixth" starter and our record gets even better!

 

 

[ramssuperbowl99]

Joe Blanton's 2009 and 2010 xFIP are 4.06 and 4.07 respectively. That's actually really, really solid for a 4th starter.

WAR isn't necessarily the best way to evaluate pitchers, here is the 2010 WAR per 200 IP for each pitcher for a possible 2011 Brewers rotation:

Yovani Gallardo - 5.0

Shaun Marcum - 3.6

Joe Blanton - 2.2

Chris Narveson - 2.0

Randy Wolf - 0.6

Total - 13.4

This doesn't include a substantial boost from Marcum's transition from the AL East to the NL Central, Blanton's fluky FIP-xFIP split, Randy Wolf's expected rebound, etc. etc.

For comparison's sake, the Brewers' 2009 staff was worth 7.7 WAR. 13.4 WAR is worth more than Tampa Bay's 2009 rotation, New York's 2009 rotation, and the Red's 2009 rotation. Essentially, those 6 more wins per year puts the Crew at 83 wins, plus any increased production in CF with Gomez getting replaced by Cain, plus better performances from Escobar and Lucroy, plus a better back-end bullpen situation with Axford closing instead of Hoffman.

At this point, 87 wins isn't out of the question, which puts us with an outside shot at the Central.

[Milltownhooker]

If the Phils eat some money. I just don't see any downside to a deal for Blanton unless his arm is toast. Like others have said get to the playoffs & anything can happen.

[Hate those Rodents]

I am not sure the Phils will have to eat any salary, certainly not anything significant. If there are four or so suiters out there that will give Pavano ten million a year, there will be a couple that will give Blanton 8.5 million a year. I am guessing said team won't have to trade a good prospect for him though.

[joepepsi]

I just don't see much difference between Blanton and Dave Bush. I'm a big fan of K:BB ration and admittedly Blanton's is better. They both give up a ton of hits. Brewers aren't as good defensively. I think you'd be giving up players in trade for Blanton, plus paying a big salary for Dave Bush results.

[Oldcity]

At this point, 87 wins isn't out of the question, which puts us with an outside shot at the Central.

IMO, if the team doesn't look like it could reasonably win 90, there's not much of a point in hanging on to Fielder.

[hawing]

I don't see much difference between Joe Blanton and Dave Bush, and Bush is a LOT cheaper.

They both have postseason success?

[ramssuperbowl99]

At this point, 87 wins isn't out of the question, which puts us with an outside shot at the Central.

IMO, if the team doesn't look like it could reasonably win 90, there's not much of a point in hanging on to Fielder.

The 87 win mark is the "true talent" level. Or, if we played the season through 100 times, we'd average 87 wins provided we stay healthy. We could win 82 games or 92 games next year.

Also, as for the Dave Bush comparisons:

Dave Bush:

2007 - 5.12 ERA, 4.57 FIP, 4.36 xFIP

2008 - 4.18 ERA, 4.93 FIP, 4.63 xFIP

2009 - 6.38 ERA, 5.07 FIP, 4.79 xFIP

2010 - 4.54 ERA, 5.13 FIP, 4.98 xFIP

Joe Blanton:

2007 - 3.95 ERA, 3.50 FIP, 4.05 xFIP

2008 - 4.69 ERA, 4.52 FIP, 4.69 xFIP

2009 - 4.05 ERA, 4.47 FIP, 4.07 xFIP

2010 - 4.82 ERA, 4.34 FIP, 4.06 xFIP

Not even close. Blanton is worlds better than Bush, the only reason his ERA is high is because he's spent the past few years pitching in a bandbox.

[Milltownhooker]

I just don't see much difference between Blanton and Dave Bush. I'm a big fan of K:BB ration and admittedly Blanton's is better. They both give up a ton of hits. Brewers aren't as good defensively. I think you'd be giving up players in trade for Blanton, plus paying a big salary for Dave Bush results.

Well except Blanton pitches half his games in the worst pitchers park in baseball. And usually puts up more quality starts every year than Bush.

[BritInWI]

I just don't see much difference between Blanton and Dave Bush.

I do. You don't have to give up a prospect to get Bush back. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[brosto1]

Blanton has pitched worse on the road the past two years than at home.

[Invader3K]

Folks really need to stop comparing whatever potential SP acquisition to mediocre guys we've had in the past. It's getting kind of silly.

[BritInWI]

I just don't see much difference between Blanton and Dave Bush. I'm a big fan of K:BB ration and admittedly Blanton's is better. They both give up a ton of hits. Brewers aren't as good defensively. I think you'd be giving up players in trade for Blanton, plus paying a big salary for Dave Bush results.

Well except Blanton pitches half his games in the worst pitchers park in baseball. And usually puts up more quality starts every year than Bush.

Funny you should say that - his numbers there are significantly better than elsewhere. In fact his numbers elsewhere are really poor.

[BritInWI]

Folks really need to stop comparing whatever potential SP acquisition to mediocre guys we've had in the past. It's getting kind of silly.

Even when the potential SP acquisition is himself mediocre? http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[paulmolitor4]

I don't see much difference between Joe Blanton and Dave Bush, and Bush is a LOT cheaper.

They both have postseason success?

Suppan had postseason success. Look at how far that got us.

 

[JohnBriggs12]

Phillies were 10-1 in Blanton's last 11 starts and 17-11 overall in his starts in 2010, generally seen as an off year for Blanton.

 

Brewers were 12-19 in Dave Bush's starts in 2010.

 

Blanton's the better pitcher. At one time they were fairly comparable but not now. Blanton throws harder, has better K rate and K/BB rate and gets deeper in games than Bush over the past couple years.

 

Bush hasn't gotten a nibble reported this offseason as a FA. That says it all.

[paulmolitor4]

He's not worth it. I'd actually rather have Pavano. I hate how many HR's Blanton gives up. And don't say it's because he pitched in Philly. He gave up more HR's on the road last year.

[Milltownhooker]

Blanton pitched much better in the second half of the year. Was dealing with an injury for the first few months.

[trwi7]

Randy Wolf's expected rebound, etc.

Why is Wolf "expected" to rebound? He's in his mid 30s, pitchers don't normally rebound in their mid 30s.

[Invader3K]

He's not worth it. I'd actually rather have Pavano. I hate how many HR's Blanton gives up. And don't say it's because he pitched in Philly. He gave up more HR's on the road last year.

Why would you rather have a 35 year old Pavano for three years than a 30 year old Blanton for only two? Pavano is going to be worse and more expensive. I don't really care if he gives up more home runs if he otherwise pitches well.

I think some have very unrealistic expectations of what Melvin can do at this point. Yeah, I'd love Zack Greinke or Matt Garza as much as the next fan, but neither is likely going to happen at this point. Blanton makes a reasonable salary and is fairly good. Certainly he's a strong #4 starter. As long as we don't have to give up much in a trade to get him, I am perplexed at what the real downside is.

Edit: Brewers Bar has a pretty good comparison between Pavano and Blantonthat is worth a read.

[paulmolitor4]

Honestly, neither one of them is that good. I doubt either would be the difference maker that puts the Brewers in the playoffs. I think when you start looking at Pavano and Blanton the only thing surely better about them is that they have a track record (experience). All things being equal, I guess I would rather give Capuano or Rogers a shot before spending 8-10 million on either one of Pavano or Blanton for the next two or three years. Hold out for something better than a number 4 type pitcher, and if you can't get that, take a gamble with someone on the cheap.

[paulmolitor4]

Randy Wolf's expected rebound, etc.

Why is Wolf "expected" to rebound? He's in his mid 30s, pitchers don't normally rebound in their mid 30s.

My guess would be based on how he pitched the last two months of the season.

 

 

[Invader3K]

Honestly, neither one of them is that good. I doubt either would be the difference maker that puts the Brewers in the playoffs. I think when you start looking at Pavano and Blanton the only thing surely better about them is that they have a track record (experience). All things being equal, I guess I would rather give Capuano or Rogers a shot before spending 8-10 million on either one of Pavano or Blanton for the next two or three years. Hold out for something better than a number 4 type pitcher, and if you can't get that, take a gamble with someone on the cheap.

See, I just don't get that. Blanton at least gives us a decent chance to be competitive. Chances are we will need to use the likes of Rogers and Capuano in the rotation at some point during the season anyway. At least getting a Blanton would give us some real depth instead of very shallow depth.