Contract Year Performance

[Hofbraunhaus]

It is frequently mentioned when discussing a free agent that he only performs well during a contract year. (Obviously this has been brought up recently when discussing Pavano). My question is, is there a stat that shows that a player perform better in a contract year, and if they do, how can this be explained? I find it hard to believe that player would be able to significantly increase his numbers when he is about to become a free agent and thus, this argument is not relevant (but I could be wrong). Anyone have any thoughts on this?

[bucksbeat]

There is no evidence to support the Contract Year myth. Forbes put out an interesting article in April of 2010 pretty much denouncing the myth, except of course in very rare instances of players playing above expectation (ie: Brad Hawpe, Johnny Damon).

The Myth of the Contract Year Slugger

 

Unfortunately the study only included hitters.

[kramnoj]

I think it depends on how you ask the question. Should a team target players in their walk years and then expect better performance? The answer to that is no. A team should not expect increased performance based on picking up a random player who will be a free agent at the end of the season. There has been one study that players tend to appear in more games or innings in their walk year, so players as a whole may suck it up for a year, or try just a little bit harder to stay healthy, but that's it.

 

The other question that I find more interesting, and basically unanswerable to a reasonable degree of confidence is: if you see a player who happened to have their best year in a walk year, should you treat that player any differently when doing a projection, or would a simple Marcel be better? I think the answer is a simple projection is going to be more reliable, but some players just have such outstanding years in walk years, it's hard to invest tens of millions (or more) in them with any degree of confidence.

[dadofandrew]

Any impact is minimal, less than 5%. Athletes just can't "turn it on" for six months. I think there is something to be said about some players relaxing and taking it easy after hitting a big contract, as is human nature.

[Warning Track Power]

Any impact is minimal, less than 5%. Athletes just can't "turn it on" for six months. I think there is something to be said about some players relaxing and taking it easy after hitting a big contract, as is human nature.

I think if your statements are turned around, your point of view is proved false. If I were to say Player A relaxes for a few season after hitting a big contract and then in his next contract year, doesn't "relax" and truly puts forth more effort in cage sessions, weight room, film, developing a new pitch, etc... in order to justify a new big contract. That is pretty much the premise of a contract year performance. Whether or not players actually do that, well, I don't know their personal training habits but I buy into this theory.

 

 

[BREWCREW5]

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I think if your statements are turned around, your point of view is proved false. If I were to say Player A relaxes for a few season after hitting a big contract and then in his next contract year, doesn't "relax" and truly puts forth more effort in cage sessions, weight room, film, developing a new pitch, etc... in order to justify a new big contract. That is pretty much the premise of a contract year performance. Whether or not players actually do that, well, I don't know their personal training habits but I buy into this theory.

 

Exactly. Contract Year Performance is called common sense. If you are going to be a free agent and are hungry for that big deal, you are going to do everything in your power to have a monster year so you get paid. Thanks Jeffrey Hammonds and Jeff Suppan for proving my point.

[Funketown]

Exactly. Contract Year Performance is called common sense. If you are going to be a free agent and are hungry for that big deal, you are going to do everything in your power to have a monster year so you get paid. Thanks Jeffrey Hammonds and Jeff Suppan for proving my point.

Anecdotes don't prove anything. I'm sure there are hundreds of players who struggled in what was supposed to be a "contract year", we just don't typically remember those players.

 

By your logic that Jeff Suppan proves the "contract year", I could say that because I once saw a guy drive drunk and not get in a crash, drunk driving must be safe.

[joepepsi]

If a guy was really going to turn it up a notch to get a better contract, wouldn't it make more sense for him to do it every season of his career so he could maximize his career earnings?

 

Most players get that first free agent contract when they are in their peak performance years, 26-29/30. It has more to do with reaching that magical age of 27 or 28 right when you are ready to become a free agent. They sign a big deal, they get on the wrong side of 30, and their year to year performance becomes more unpredictable.

 

There's a book out there which did a study on this and iirc did find a small correlation with peak performance in a contract year. It's either Baseball Between the Numbers, or The Book:Playing the Percentages in Baseball.

[Ennder]

Pretty sure The Book found a small correlation but I'd have to pull it out.

 

Oops noticed that joepepsi posted the same thing in his post above but going to go ahead and leave it anyway.

[TooLiveBrew]

Yeah, Baseball Between the Numbers found a correlation.

[Beast Light]

I think that a good example of players being able to turn it "on" and "off" is Corey Hart. Look how bad his numbers were in 2008 and 2009. Last year, he started playing very well. When he was asked what the difference was, he came right out and said that he wasn't working as hard as he should have been the past couple years. I don't mean to turn this into a Corey Hart discussion but just wanted to bring attention to an example where it appears as if players can "relax".

 

On average, the correlation probably isn't too strong but there are probably individuals who raise what could be considered obvious flags. When guys are suddenly able to drastically improve their performance and their contract year starts to resemble and outlier, I believe it is cause for concern. Carl Pavano, Adrian Beltre, Carlos Beltran and Vernon Wells are a few guys that have had pretty drastic differences between their contract years and their first year under their new contracts.

[Flood Pants]

If a guy was really going to turn it up a notch to get a better contract, wouldn't it make more sense for him to do it every season of his career so he could maximize his career earnings?

I think for an arby-eligible player, that's absolutely right, because every year you are playing for a new contract. For someone under a guaranteed contract, it's a different case. I'll use two Brewers as an example, not because I think their work ethics apply but simply their contract situations. Braun is under a guaranteed contract. If he works extra hard in 2011, he'll still get paid the same in 2012. It would be a good year to take it easy, if that's what he were looking to do. Then we have a guy like Carlos Gomez who, if he totally lights it up, can earn himself a big arby raise. I could see such circumstances motivating work ethic. But I don't think most players are capable of giving themselves a huge one year boost in stats without a lot of luck involved. But an elite player may well be capable of that.

[RockCoCougars]

I definitely feel that there is a correlation between better performance and a contract year. This is because though I'm sure that many guys give maximum effort all the time, there are many that don't give their all at all times, but have extra motivation to do so when their livelihood is on the line- it's human nature. Though I'm sure that it works the other way as well because some guys fold under pressure, it seems to be much more of the former than the latter to me.

 

This isn't baseball related, but look at the Bucks, guys like Tim Thomas, Bobby Simmons, Gadzuric (though he wasn't that good to begin with), and I fear- John Salmons for examples. There are plenty of examples over the years in baseball and other sports as well.