Fangraphs review of Brewers Top 10

[reillymcshane]

Fangraphs has a review of the Brewers top 10 prospects:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/...s-the-milwaukee-brewers/

 

It's nice seeing so many pitchers on the list, but most are in A ball now - so many are at least 2 years away. Only Odorizzi and Rogers are projected to have a WAR of 4 or higher at best. So not a lot of impact players in the system.

 

I appreciated their analysis -- more in depth than most reviews of minor leaguers.

[TooLiveBrew]

On the mound, Rogers has a strong lower half and utilizes a long stride in his delivery. His command issues come from an inconsistent arm slot and his throwing shoulder often flies open, which elevates his pitches. I’ve also noticed that you can pick up his grips from second base and he may need to shield his glove better.

That's the first I've heard of this. Interesting.

 

And fwiw, Heckathorn's peak WAR is also projected as 4.0. Hunter Morris -- I like this guy -- is projected at 3.5. I really liked what they had to say about his defensive tools (but not the comment right afterwards http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif): Defensively, he has quick feet and a strong arm. His range is above average.

 

I understand why Jeffress continues to get downgraded for his positive drug tests. However, as a Brewers fan & being marginally familiar with the situation, at this point it almost seems a bit lazy to rely on that factor so heavily in grading him. I understand it, though. I just don't think his peak WAR at this point would be 3; I think it'd be closer to 4 or 5, if you're talking *peak*. Jeffress's being ahead of Heckathorn, even though he wasn't projected for as high a peak WAR, makes me think that if you'd ask Hulet again, he'd say 4.0 or so for JJ.

 

I was a bit surprised to see how low Thornburg was on the list, and that Kentrail Davis wasn't even on it. But like you said reilly, it was a really in-depth & well-done scouting report. The pitchers especially seemed well-scouted -- typically these kinds of lists rely purely on stats & player reputations. You could tell Marc Hulet has at least seen video of some of these players. I've seen some of his stuff in the past; I'll have to keep a closer eye on what he puts out in the future.

[reillymcshane]

On the mound, Rogers has a strong lower half and utilizes a long stride in his delivery. His command issues come from an inconsistent arm slot and his throwing shoulder often flies open, which elevates his pitches. I’ve also noticed that you can pick up his grips from second base and he may need to shield his glove better.

That's the first I've heard of this. Interesting.

 

And fwiw, Heckathorn's peak WAR is also projected as 4.0. Hunter Morris -- I like this guy -- is projected at 3.5. I really liked what they had to say about his defensive tools (but not the comment right afterwards http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif): Defensively, he has quick feet and a strong arm. His range is above average.

 

I understand why Jeffress continues to get downgraded for his positive drug tests. However, as a Brewers fan & being marginally familiar with the situation, at this point it almost seems a bit lazy to rely on that factor so heavily in grading him. I understand it, though. I just don't think his peak WAR at this point would be 3; I think it'd be closer to 4 or 5, if you're talking *peak*. Jeffress's being ahead of Heckathorn, even though he wasn't projected for as high a peak WAR, makes me think that if you'd ask Hulet again, he'd say 4.0 or so for JJ.

 

I was a bit surprised to see how low Thornburg was on the list, and that Kentrail Davis wasn't even on it. But like you said reilly, it was a really in-depth & well-done scouting report. The pitchers especially seemed well-scouted -- typically these kinds of lists rely purely on stats & player reputations. You could tell Marc Hulet has at least seen video of some of these players. I've seen some of his stuff in the past; I'll have to keep a closer eye on what he puts out in the future.

TooLive, you did a better review than I did. Thanks.

 

Thanks for catching the errors on Heckathorn's and Morris' WAR peak value.

 

Like you said, it was nice having a review that appears to have been done by someone who's actually seen the players.

[TooLiveBrew]

Oh, I didn't mean to say I caught an error from you with Morris... just that it was nice to see him get such a strong review.

 

But overall it's disappointing to see the farm system ranked 24th out of 30 teams.

[logan82]

Not really surprising though. We have a plethora of solid players but no can't miss guys or future stars. Add in that most of our possible impact talent was A+ or loser this year and it is hard to even gauge what they will do.

[Mudville9]

Hey guys, real quick question. Why is Mat the Batt not on this list? I understand him not being top 5, but he has to be ahead of Gindl. Maybe I'm missing some rule that states he can't be a prospect. Please enlighten me.

[trwi7]

Too many at bats to be a prospect.

[TooLiveBrew]

Hah, "Mat the Batt" ... I'd forgotten that. Good times. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[And That]

The rate standards that make demarcate a player's ineligibility for RoY voting are often used for prospect list cutoffs, too - 130 AB, 50 IP. A player with anything above that and Baseball America, the Power 50, and probably the FanGraphs guys, will them off prospect lists.

 

RoY standards also have a service time element, but neither we nor BA use that for prospect lists.

[logan82]

[quote author=And That wrote:

[/b]RoY standards also have a service time element, but neither we nor BA use that for prospect lists.

Probably because it is very difficult if not impossible to figure out much of the time.

 

 

[battlekow]

logan3825]Probably because it is very difficult if not impossible to figure out much of the time.

How so?

[logan82]

Probably because it is very difficult if not impossible to figure out much of the time.

How so?

 

As far as I know it isn't readily available. Cot's is the only one I know of right off hand that has service time and I know they are at best a year behind. They have Mat Gamel with 28 days of service time. I know for a fact that is wrong. I don't know what his exact service time is but it is far more than 28 days. It was more than 28 days last year. If a guy gets called up it is pretty easy but if you have to figure September callups over a couple years plus MLB DL time and midseason callups things get very time consuming to keep track of where AB and IP are readily available and easy to look up.

[Mudville9]

Consider me enlightened. That makes perfect sense. For some reason I thought Gamel was still eligible.

[Tedaldtada]

Call me a homer, but I think our system is vastly underrated. No way people will look back in 5 years and say, 'That was a bottom five system'. It's good to see a bunch of pitchers, though. I still think Rogers should be penciled in for 20-25 starts in the bigs next year.

[battlekow]

As far as I know it isn't readily available. Cot's is the only one I know of right off hand that has service time and I know they are at best a year behind. They have Mat Gamel with 28 days of service time. I know for a fact that is wrong. I don't know what his exact service time is but it is far more than 28 days. It was more than 28 days last year. If a guy gets called up it is pretty easy but if you have to figure September callups over a couple years plus MLB DL time and midseason callups things get very time consuming to keep track of where AB and IP are readily available and easy to look up.

I understand what you mean. You're right Cot's, isn't yet updated with 2010 service time, but it's not particularly difficult to figure out--for one player, anyway. It could be a headache to do for a whole team. Anyway, carry on.

[uwisfan]

it's one season, but I'd have Scooter Gennet in the top 10, probably above Morris..

[CheezWizHed]

I would think Scooter has a higher ceiling than Morris (considering one is at 2B and one is at 1B), but I think Scooter also has a higher probability of not making it also.

 

I don't think we have seen the best of Morris yet. Given that he went to the AFL out of A-ball (as a fill-in, but still...), I have a feeling the Brewers are pretty high on him.

[logan82]

Call me a homer, but I think our system is vastly underrated. No way people will look back in 5 years and say, 'That was a bottom five system'. It's good to see a bunch of pitchers, though. I still think Rogers should be penciled in for 20-25 starts in the bigs next year.

When you look at it though what are they saying about each individual? There is Odorizzi at the top who might be a #2-3. Then a bunch of guys who are either #3's or relievers and one possible impact bat who didn't hit very well at A ball. There is a lot of depth and it should keep us from having to pursue mid level pitchers but little impact talent. We still have no idea what to expect from Jeffress. He would still have to learn better control to be a good starter and hasn't started a game in well over a year so he is a huge question mark. I am not trying to be negative but there is just very few p[layers who I would look forward to replacing any of our MLB players without a dip in production.

[TooLiveBrew]

I would think Scooter has a higher ceiling than Morris (considering one is at 2B and one is at 1B), but I think Scooter also has a higher probability of not making it also.

 

I don't think we have seen the best of Morris yet. Given that he went to the AFL out of A-ball (as a fill-in, but still...), I have a feeling the Brewers are pretty high on him.

I'm not sure Gennett has a higher ceiling than Morris. Gennett is one small dude.

[ramssuperbowl99]

Call me a homer, but I think our system is vastly underrated. No way people will look back in 5 years and say, 'That was a bottom five system'. It's good to see a bunch of pitchers, though. I still think Rogers should be penciled in for 20-25 starts in the bigs next year.

When you look at it though what are they saying about each individual? There is Odorizzi at the top who might be a #2-3. Then a bunch of guys who are either #3's or relievers and one possible impact bat who didn't hit very well at A ball. There is a lot of depth and it should keep us from having to pursue mid level pitchers but little impact talent. We still have no idea what to expect from Jeffress. He would still have to learn better control to be a good starter and hasn't started a game in well over a year so he is a huge question mark. I am not trying to be negative but there is just very few p[layers who I would look forward to replacing any of our MLB players without a dip in production.

You know, people look at a bad farm system ranking and think that it's somehow a bad thing. It's not necessarily a bad thing at all. Our system is bad because in the past year we graduated John Axford, Alcides Escobar, Mat Gamel, Lorenzo Cain, Jonathan Lucroy, Chris Narveson and others that I'm neglecting. We also used Brett Lawrie to acquire a #1 starter and got a fluke 1st round non-signing.

If you take away 70% of a team's top 10, they are going to be a bad system. But look at what that has given us:

7 of our 8 position players are homegrown. The only non-homegrown player was a waiver claim.

3 out of our 5 projected starters (Gallardo, Narveson, Rogers) are homegrown. Another was gotten by trade.

Only 2 significant players on the whole team are free agents. Of course our system is depleted! That would even deplete the Royals system right now!

I'd also like to add that, although this isn't a great system (I'd have them around 20 overall), it compliments the Brewers' style really well. 1 great pitching prospect at the top, and then alot of guys who can fill out the back-end of a rotation or maybe make a move to the bullpen. Lots of catching depth in the bottom and a few decent position prospects. That's perfect. If Weeks is extended, the only position player who we have to worry about replacing in the next 3 years is Prince Fielder (who Mat Gamel or a Fielder-trade type prospect could do). Melvin always struggles bringing in lame back end starters for too much money and has an infatuation with old "defensive" catchers who can't hit. Our system solves both of those problems. Melvin also likes to buy mediocre relievers coming off of small sample based "career years". There won't be any room for them if our system develops.

Obviously I'd rather have a dynamite system filled to the brim with minor leaguers, but let's not confuse "bad minor league system" with "unable to develop talent". You couldn't name 5 teams more reliant on their MiLB system the past 4 years than Milwaukee.

[Mass Haas]

Just a reminder that Narveson spent time in the Cardinals, Rockies, Red Sox systems -- he's not home-grown, although he made fine strides since his acquisition.

[ramssuperbowl99]

Just a reminder that Narveson spent time in the Cardinals, Rockies, Red Sox systems -- he's not home-grown, although he made fine strides since his acquisition.

He wasn't drafted by the Brewers, but he spent 200 IP in the Brewers minor league system before making his major league debut. Though he did have a cup of coffee with the Cardinals, I'd consider him a Brewers' farm system product.

[Hate those Rodents]

I think he almost beat out Claudio Vargas for the fifth spot in the rotation his first spring as a Brewer. Vargas, I believe, got the job because he was more "prized" in coming from that trade and had actually been an mlb starter before. Narveson proceeded to be quite average to below average in AAA for the next 2-3 years before showing up on the radar after our "next man in" pitching troubles/injuries last year and doing pretty well for us.

[logan82]

ramssuperbowl99 wrote:

Obviously I'd rather have a dynamite system filled to the brim with minor leaguers, but let's not confuse "bad minor league system" with "unable to develop talent". You couldn't name 5 teams more reliant on their MiLB system the past 4 years than Milwaukee.

 

Who said unable to develop talent?

[Invader3K]

Are the assessments of the Brewers having a "poor" minor league system basically a result of the last two 1st round draft picks? Arnett struggling and Covey not signing probably had a major impact, I would guess.