Matt Garza?

[MNBrew]

Reading up again on this thread & the Greinke thread, I wonder if either of these might get a Garza deal done (noting that while Greinke may be a better pitcher, the difference may not be that great, and the price for Garza & the remaining team control time both tilt the scales toward Garza, too).....

 

Trade Offer #1: Jeffress, Scarpetta, Parra, & Gomez

 

Rationale: immediate high-cailber talent for TB's 'pen (Jeffress & Parra), a strong prospect (Scarpetta) w/ limited remaining options (takes that potentially tricky situation off our plate, & less blockage above him w/ TB's emptied pen), & talented speedy defensive OF with chance to earn some PT

 

Trade Offer #2: Fielder (+ cash for about 2/3 of his salary), & 2 of Jeffress/Scarpetta/Gomez; (TB possibly adds a B-level prospect if all 3 go to TB)

 

Rationale: stud hitter fills roster need at 1B plus includes the built-in salary relief & who can turn into 2 draft picks next winter (Prince), hot-prospect reliever (Jeffress), high-upside prospect pitcher (Scarpetta), & Gomez

 

Note: You could substitute a Gindl-type or Lee Haydel for Gomez if it helped the deal go through.

 

As someone said elsewhere, without enough pitching, we're still not going anywhere. Neither of my proposed offers guts the depth of our system. Scarpetta might intrigue because of his potential and because they'd need to get him ML-ready before he's out of options -- though it seems his talent may eventually have him to that point in time, anyway. But Tampa may have more of a pressing need for someone like him by that point than we would.

[nate82]

Trade Offer #1: Jeffress, Scarpetta, Parra, & Gomez

 

 

 

Trade Offer #2: Fielder (+ cash for about 2/3 of his salary), & 2 of Jeffress/Scarpetta/Gomez; (TB possibly adds a B-level prospect if all 3 go to TB)

Trade #1 is not enough and trade #2 is not going to happen. The Rays are looking to shred payroll not adding payroll the Brewers would have to pay at least half of Fielder's salary and why would the Brewers do that? You have to completely forget about trading Fielder to the Rays it is not going to happen it is like putting up one of those Cubs signs of Its Gonna Happen. You are delusional if you think a deal with the Rays is going to involve Fielder and the Brewers paying some of Fielder's salary. It is just not going to happen. The only way Fielder is involved with a trade with the Rays is if it is a 3-team deal. There is no way the Rays receive Fielder unless the Brewers take on half or more of his contract.

[logan82]

why would the Brewers do that?

 

To get a good player back in trade.

[MNBrew]

There is no way the Rays receive Fielder unless the Brewers take on half or more of his contract.

You'll note that I proposed the Brewers taking on 2/3 of Prince's salary.

 

Besides the long odds that it might occur, here's why it could work:

 

- TB's side: 1/3 of Fielder's salary (TB's obligation in my trade idea) is roughly what Garza may earn in arby. They fill a major hole w/ a premier power hitter @ no more net cost than was already on their roster. Eventual trade return or 2 picks means they still gain solid return for Garza.

 

- MIL's side: 2/3 of Fielder's salary + Garza's = roughly what they would've been paying Prince, but the rotation is set for the next couple years and they have multiple options for 1B already on the roster. The Brewers are already budgeting for Prince's est. $15M. Just maybe they get Overbay on a 1-year deal if they lack sufficient confidence in Gamel, & that cost likely isn't absurd.

 

In both cases (excluding an Overbay move), the payrolls remain roughly constant re: these two guys, but both teams get holes filled & have replacements on the roster for the guys they moved.

 

Make no mistake, I'm not predicting this is what will happen. There are a million reasons this may never occur, but I'm not dwelling on those angles. Whether TB would go for them or not, these ideas holds up well to basic logic. A week ago we never thought we'd trade Brett Lawrie for Shaun Marcum. Things can happen....

[PeaveyFury]

You are delusional if you think

 

Easy there....

[endaround]

2/3 of Fielder's salary would mean the Brewers would being paying Garza like $17m coming off a somewhat poor season. And to throw prospects on top of that?

[MNBrew]

2/3 of Fielder's salary would mean the Brewers would being paying Garza like $17m coming off a somewhat poor season. And to throw prospects on top of that?

No it's not, not any more than saying the Brewers were paying the scrub we got from Seattle the $8M or so left on Bill Hall's contract. And you'll note that I put Gomez into that trade, who's hardly a prospect.

 

Between the 2 options I proposed, I'd prefer the first one, not the Fielder one.

 

15-10, 3.91 ERA, 32 starts, 204.2 IP, 193 hits, 63 BB, 150K . . . . Is that really a somewhat poor season? I wouldn't say so. But you could make the same argument about paying Fielder $15M for a season when everything but his BB & OBP dropped significantly from the previous season.

 

My point was, they're spending about that much anyway, but quite arguably they need another good SP that badly that it MAY BE worth patching the hole that way. The bottom line is that the Brewers need another good SP. You don't have to think my ideas were a good one, but it was an attempt to solve the problem.

[TheCrew]

Garza isn't worth paying $17 million, giving up fielder and some of the remaining top prospects - I'm not sure I'd even do that trade straight up for Fielder with the Rays taking on his full salary.

 

Not to mention, if you give up Fielder, it takes a huge bite out of the offense and thus the "go for it this year" feeling I'm starting to get from Melvin - it simply doesn't add up.

 

If the Rays were going to trade for Fielder, it would have happened at the deadline last season when they needed an upgrade over Pena.

 

If a trade is going to happen, I'd rather deal for Greinke and have the package centered around Escobar.

[RockCoCougars]

For the 100th time, I just don't get the logic of eating salary to move one of the best hitters in the game over the past 5 years. That is the kind of thing that I may be on board for for a Jeff Suppan, Jeffery Hammonds, LaTroy Hawkins, Franklin Stubbs type, but I think it's an absurd idea for Fielder.

[dlk9s]

Wouldn't we be likely to get comp picks for Marcum and Garza once they leave, which we could use to replenish the farm?

I suppose, but I don't think that's really much of an issue right now, since those prospects wouldn't make it to the majors (if they do) many years from now. It's not like we'd be drafting them next year.

[MNBrew]

For the 100th time, I just don't get the logic of eating salary to move one of the best hitters in the game over the past 5 years.

And generally, I don't get the logic, either. I'm on record as having said multiple times that it's ridiculous. But the market for Fielder has proved to be pretty much nothing. I came to this idea mainly b/c TB needs a 1B since Pena's gone and it's a way Fielder could still turn into an SP. TB obviously hasn't gone for anything the Brewers may have discussed with them up to now, so I just tried looking at it differently.

 

I would far prefer the Option #1 I mentioned earlier: Jeffress, Parra, Scarpetta, & Gomez. Throw in a little something more if need be. I was trying to stay away from Odorizzi, Heckathorn, Rivas, & Peralta. Scarpetta's not exactly chopped liver or roster filler at this point. Jeffress is a monster arm & talent. Parra was that and was quite solid as a reliever, and TB needs bullpen help seriously. Gomez is, um, well, um, . . . uh, he was the centerpiece of the Johan Santana trade (and still talented, to be sure, but the secret's kinda out there).

[And That]

Take it for what it's worth, but the guys at Brewer Nation tweeted that:

 

Brewers/Rays still talking. Rays don't want to give up Garza for Brewers offer. Want Brewers to take James Shields instead.

[TooLiveBrew]

I'd be fine with either one, but would prefer Garza. From the data, Shields appears to be a guy that has to use his fastball to set up his good pitches; his curve & especially changeup look like good pitches. Garza, on the other hand, looks to have a good fastball & solid slider; his change & curve appear to be just pitches he mixes in to keep hitters honest. Shields *does* throw a cut-fastball, which is a pitch that might get better as he continues to throw it (he started throwing it more in '08). In short, Shields looks like an offspeed stuff guy, whereas Garza looks more like a power pitcher. I'd rather have the power guy, I guess.

 

Imo Melvin has to walk a fine line in not overpaying for Garza, but putting a good enough offer out there to keep Tampa from just waiting it out until after Lee signs. Who knows, maybe the Rays are going to wait until after Lee signs no matter what.

[PrinceFielderx1]

Garza throws a little bit harder than Shields, but not by much.

 

Shields

 

Garza

[TheCrew]

I'd love either one of them - Shields numbers look bad at face value from last season, but he had a pretty unlucky BABIP of .354 - highest in the league, next highest was .340. (which coincidentally was Yovani)

 

Lot of encouraging things to see when looking at his numbers (highest k rate of his career, averaged 1 MPH more on his fastball than any previous season) - only thing that really concerns me when looking at shields numbers is the spike in HR's.

[Invader3K]

Shields has a sort of interesting contracts. From Cot's:

 

11:$4.25M, 12:$7M club option ($2M buyout), 13:$9M club option ($1.5M buyout), 14:$12M club option ($1M buyout)

value of 2012-14 club options may increase package to $38M

performance bonuses based on innings pitched, starts, and Cy Young voting may increase package to $44M

 

So he'd be under control for four years, with the final three being option years.

[Hate those Rodents]

What type of ceiling or maybe the better question is what number starter would Shields probably be? I haven't followed him much, but wasn't he their one a couple of seasons ago but now has "regressed" to a 3/4.

 

If that twitter report is correct, I almost hope Doug pulls the trigger on Shields. Not even sure what he's offering, but apparently it's something he feels comfortable giving up, so I highly doubt it would be a fleecing in TB's favor.

[Invader3K]

Just for fun, from baseball-reference.com, James Shields comparisons through age 28:

 

Similar Pitchers through 28

Carl Pavano (973)

Oil Can Boyd (972)

Jake Westbrook (970)

Bill Wegman (969)

Scott Baker (969)

Joe Blanton (965)

Aaron Harang (965)

Charles Nagy (962)

Adam Eaton (961)

Jason Schmidt (960)

 

Not a bad looking list at all. If Shields is "only" a 3/4 SP going forward, I think that is still quite valuable to the Brewers. Gallardo/Marcum/Wolf/Shields/Narveson would be a pretty solid rotation.

[endaround]

Shields out pitched Garza last year, one just was unlucky and the other lucky when it comes to ERA. Both had down years last year though. Garza's FIP the last 3 years: 4.14, 4.17, 4.42. Shields the last three years: 3.82, 4.02, 4.24. Garza really is a 2/3, Shields FIP went up due to high HR rate, his xFIP is actually #1 like. I'd much rather have Shields (assuming Tampa is just dumping him for money reasons and not because they think he's breaking down).

 

James projections FWTW: Garza FIP 4.04 Shields FIP 3.93. Don't have a clue why Garza is projected to pitch better than he ever has unless James has a huge age 27 boost

[RockCoCougars]

I don't want Shields at any cost. Garza is much better. Shields has pitched poorly the past two years, is more expensive, and older. All that I need to look at for Shields is that last year he gave up 246 hits in 203 innings (239 hits in 219 innings in 2009).... that is Soup like, and I pass. Garza, on the other hand, has given up less hits than innings pitched in each of his three seasons while maintaining good control.

 

The Brewers need to stand their ground here. Change the culture, and don't take the sloppy seconds.

[trwi7]

Shields is basically a harder throwing Marcum who is under control for four years. I'd take Shields over Garza, especially if we have to give up less. I would take that with a huge grain of salt. Big Rygg and South Side Rob call into WSSP all the time and I'd be absolutely shocked if they have any inside sources.

[Invader3K]

RockCo, as pointed out earlier, Shields BABIP last season was extremely high. I wouldn't base the decision to trade or not trade for a guy based solely on the amount of hits he gave up.

[Brewer Fever]

Please don't jump down my throat if this is wrong, but shouldn't line drive percentage be listed hand and hand with BABIP? I know the premise of BABIP is that if its high it is in part due to the bad luck of having balls find holes at an abnormal rate. But couldn't a high BABIP simply be due to a pitcher having his offerings wacked hard all over the field? And as such, if the pitcher had a coinciding high line drive rate it might indicate that batters found a lot of green grass because the pitcher's offerings were being squared up by the hitters more than that of better pitchers.

 

I just think it's useless to say a pitcher had bad luck with a high BABIP without considering line drive percentage.

 

And I'll go one step further. The fielding metrics of the team's defense would play a role as well I'd think. Teams with poor range mean more holes for batted balls to drop or squeeze through. With the Brewers poor defense, perhaps that in part was why Yo's BABIP was so high. And it could mean not much drop in Shields if he were a Brewer next year.

 

Just something to consider before assuming a high BABIP is fluke and assured of coming down the next year. Again, if I'm way off base, please let me down easy.

[trwi7]

Please don't jump down my throat if this is wrong, but shouldn't line drive percentage be listed hand and hand with BABIP? I know the premise of BABIP is that if its high it is in part due to the bad luck of having balls find holes at an abnormal rate.

Ehh, Shields' LD% this year was 20.3% and his BABIP was .354. Last year his LD% was 20.5% with a .317 BABIP. I don't really think it's a factor unless you have like a LD% of 30% or something.

[TooLiveBrew]

Garza throws a little bit harder than Shields, but not by much.

 

Shields

 

Garza

While this is true, Shields's fastball has been terrible going off the FanGraphs pitch values. Garza's, on the other hand, has been very good. Shields's fastball made me think of Manny Parra's, & how just because it's thrown hard doesn't mean it's a good pitch.