Matt Garza?

[TooLiveBrew]

Isn't the Cubs farm system pretty crappy right now? What prospects might they send over to TB?

The Cubs' system is actually pretty solid right now. Here is John Sickels's preliminary look at their top 20 prospects for 2011. He grades the top 6 prospects as "B" or better, and the definition for a B grade is: Grade B prospects have a good chance to enjoy successful careers.

Some will develop into stars, some will not. Most end up spending

several years in the majors, at the very least in a marginal role.

 

OF Brett Jackson, RHP Trey McNutt, & RHP Chris Archer all grade out at B+ for Sickels, and he ranks those guys 1-2-3 in the system. I saw McNutt make a start last summer against Odorizzi, and McNutt was really good with good velocity.

 

 

EDIT: for some perspective, here is Sickels's ranking of the Brewers' top 20 prior to the 2010 season. Lawrie & Escobar were the only B+ grades.

[Hate those Rodents]

I would prefer Pavano & Cain to Garza & Gomez.

That might well be true this year. However, it's 2012 and 2013 I'm worried about with Pavano. One of our other CF prospects should be ready by 2012, anyway.

I think the key is that second year of Pavano's contract. If we get two strong years out of him, even if he's hurt or just needs to be relegated to long relief or average fifth starter status his final year, the signing still will look good in my eyes even if its overpaying. Give me two good years out of the guy, and it'll be a good deal in my book.

 

 

[strawbossisevil]

If it is us versus the Cubs for Garza, I hope the Brewers pony up and beat the Cubs offer. This reminds me too much of the offseason where the Cubs added Lilly (a pitcher I liked and wanted for the Brewers), while the Brewers settled for Suppan.

 

Getting Garza for ourselves means that the Cubs pitching will be worse (unless it leads to them making an offer for Greinke or Lee).

 

Also, I think too many on here think too little of Garza. He has had an ERA below 4 every year for the last 4 years. That is a very, very good #2 pitcher, if not a low end #1. Adding him along with Gallardo, Marcum, and Wolf would give the Brewers a starting rotation that would be amongst the top in the National League.

[dadofandrew]

TB is asking so much for Garza because he's team controlled for 3 more years, yet can be non-tendered if he blows out his arm/elbow. He's in the perfect scenario for all but a few of the poorest teams. They can probably get 2 Lawries from someone if they hold out.

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

If either the Brewers or Cubs get Garza I think it's a win-win. If we get him, the Brewers are a serious contender in the division the next 1-3 years. After the Marcum trade, one more starter and they are right there.

 

If the Cubs have to pay up, they aren't going anywhere this year anyway so it won't make that big of a difference. Their Double-A team was stacked last year...eroding that talent would be better for the Brewers down the road.

[trwi7]

If the Cubs have to pay up, they aren't going anywhere this year anyway so it won't make that big of a difference.

I bet Cubs fans are saying the same thing about us.

[Warning Track Power]

If either the Brewers or Cubs get Garza I think it's a win-win. If we get him, the Brewers are a serious contender in the division the next 1-3 years. After the Marcum trade, one more starter and they are right there.

 

If the Cubs have to pay up, they aren't going anywhere this year anyway so it won't make that big of a difference. Their Double-A team was stacked last year...eroding that talent would be better for the Brewers down the road.

I don't know about the rest of you guys but I am ready for another window of competing. I think with that pitching staff (Gallardo, Garza, Marcum, Wolf, #5) we are legitimate contenders for probably the next 5 seasons. I assume contract extensions with Garza and Marcum because it makes too much sense to me. Sign Marcum to a 3 year extension and buy out Garza's first two years of FA and there's 2011-2015 Top 3 SP resigned. Easier said than done obviously but the offseason is made for dreaming.

 

 

[And That]

If the competition for Garza really heats up, it might be smart for the Brewers to switch gears to James Shields. If they make a solid offer on him, the Rays might be tempted to deal him and keep Garza because I don't think they want to trade both. Shields is arguably as good as Garza, though he's coming off a down year. He's signed through next season with club options through 2014.

[nate82]

I don't see the Rays trading any of their starting pitching unless they are extremely overtaken by an offer meaning it is going to take a lot to get any of their pitchers. Something along the lines of Cain, Odorizzi, and more to get Garza or Shields or any of the Rays pitchers. I think you are looking at giving up 3 or 4 top 20 prospects before the Rays are motivated to move Garza or Shields. Right now the Rays are just listening and they are really not at a point where they have to trade anyone and it looks as though they do not want to trade anyone unless they get that perfect deal.

[sbrylski]

If the competition for Garza really heats up, it might be smart for the Brewers to switch gears to James Shields. If they make a solid offer on him, the Rays might be tempted to deal him and keep Garza because I don't think they want to trade both. Shields is arguably as good as Garza, though he's coming off a down year. He's signed through next season with club options through 2014.

Love it.

 

11:$4.25M, 12:$7M club option ($2M buyout), 13:$9M club option ($1.5M buyout), 14:$12M club option ($1M buyout)

 

Those club options have performance bonuses, however, which could balloon the price to $44m over those four seasons (but if he's winning Cy Young's, which is part of the bonus structure, I don't think we'll care.)

[dadofandrew]

I'm surprised TB did not shop Shields rather than Garza...maybe they think Matt will be costlier due to arby.

[NievesNoNO]

nate82[/b]]I don't see the Rays trading any of their starting pitching unless they are extremely overtaken by an offer meaning it is going to take a lot to get any of their pitchers. Something along the lines of Cain, Odorizzi, and more to get Garza or Shields or any of the Rays pitchers. I think you are looking at giving up 3 or 4 top 20 prospects before the Rays are motivated to move Garza or Shields. Right now the Rays are just listening and they are really not at a point where they have to trade anyone and it looks as though they do not want to trade anyone unless they get that perfect deal.

I agree. I don't know what their financial constraints are, but it's not like either Garza or Shields is making a ton of money or their going to lose them to free agency.

 

 

[nate82]

I'm surprised TB did not shop Shields rather than Garza...maybe they think Matt will be costlier due to arby.

The Rays didn't shop anyone. They were just listening to offers for anyone and they have received interest in all of their starting pitchers. The Rays are just getting calls from teams but they are not shopping anyone.

[lcbj68c]

I don't see the Rays trading any of their starting pitching unless they are extremely overtaken by an offer ...... Right now the Rays are just listening and they are really not at a point where they have to trade anyone and it looks as though they do not want to trade anyone unless they get that perfect deal.

This couldnt be further from the truth. The Rays are very motivated to move salary. They need to cut another $10M, give or take, to get to the publicly stated number of 53M. Garza is in his second year of arby and is going to command over 5M. Shields is already signed for 4.25M. While Shields is certainly just as much a candidate as Garza, somebody is going to go. The Rays will be trading somebody. Price, Niemann, Davis, Sonnastine, Hellickson are all viable in that rotation without mentioning Shields and Garza. Somebody,maybe both. is going to go. They don't need to be blown away with prospects, they just need to pull the trigger on the best deal for them that dumps salary and gets the most in return.

[paul253]

I'm starting to think the Brewers should go all in for Garza. I'm not suggesting they make a stupid deal just to get him, but something like Jeffress and maybe Peralta should be a good start. I absolutely do not want Milwaukee to sign Carl Pavano to a three year deal. A rotation with Gallardo, Marcum, and Garza would surely make Milwaukee at least a co-favorite to win the division. And unlike the year they got Sabathia, they'd be set up to continue to have success for a few years after that, even when they lose Fielder.

 

A rotation of Gallardo, Marcum, Garza, Wolf, and Narveson looks pretty good.

[TooLiveBrew]

I absolutely do not want Milwaukee to sign Carl Pavano to a three year deal.

 

Don't worry, then, because they're not going to.

[reillymcshane]

I just think a deal with Tampa makes too much sense. They need relief pitching and a package around Jeffress would be perfect. I'd take Shields or Garza. I've always liked Shields. Maybe with his off year last season it's a good time to go after him.

[paul253]

I know I started the Zack Greinke thread and I would love to get him still, but I think Matt Garza would be a much more likely get. Tampa has an excess of major league starters and can afford to trade one, whereas KC is only going to trade Greinke if they get they want. Matt Garza wouldn't take as much to get, and I think we could get him while still holding onto Rogers and Odorizzi, which is my biggest concern. If I were Melvin I'd work on getting Garza while everyone else is still focuses on Lee and Greinke. Jeffress would have to be the main piece, and probably Peralta or Heckathorn would have to be included. But that's not nearly as much as you'd need to give up to get Greinke.

[TooLiveBrew]

Tampa has an excess of major league starters and can afford to trade one

 

Not only that, but Tampa has publicly stated they need to drastically cut payroll. Garza is as good as gone this season, imo. Ed Price of AOL Fanhouse: "One major-league source is certain Rays trade Matt Garza and predicted he winds up with Cubs"

[RockCoCougars]

The Brewers need to stop chasing after Pavano and get this done. Give up anything within reason and get him so the Cubs don't. He's young, under team control for quite a while, and has a track record or durability and success- not to mention, he can actually break 90 mph on the gun consistently. If they add Garza and keep this lineup intact, they should be able to compete for this division.

[brains and braun]

Wouldn't we be likely to get comp picks for Marcum and Garza once they leave, which we could use to replenish the farm?

[igor67]

Garza is an interesting hybrid of Pavano and Grienke. He'd cost potentially quite a bit less prospect wise than Grienke, and a lot less on the monetary risk than Pavano. His performance seems similar to Carl. Of the options seemingly out there I think it's the one that makes the most sense. They can put something together to get enough of a rotation to have a pretty fair shot at the playoffs in Fielder's walk year, and still have enough other pieces in place for the next chunk of years. I worry that Pavano ties up a lot of money in the rotation, and if Wolf and Pavano trend down... Grienke I think you end up giving so much that it ends up being pretty much all in on this year because anybody who can be more than a role player for the next couple of years ends up getting dealt, which ultimately will imbalance the roster to a few pretty good players, but not enough of the average to slightly above cheap players you need to round it out into a contender.

[logan82]

The Brewers need to stop chasing after Pavano and get this done. Give up anything within reason and get him so the Cubs don't. He's young, under team control for quite a while, and has a track record or durability and success- not to mention, he can actually break 90 mph on the gun consistently. If they add Garza and keep this lineup intact, they should be able to compete for this division.

I think our definitions of quite a while are vastly different. 3 years isn't quite a while in my opinion.

[Hate those Rodents]

The other good thing about Garza vs. Greinke is affordability for resigning. Greinke probably gets 125-175 million when he becomes a free agent. Garza is probably going to get less than 100 million on his free agent contract. Thus, we can afford to keep Garza forever whereas we are not that likely to have Greinke for more than these next two years.

[PilprinBuddha]

Ace vs #2 or #3 money and talent. with YoGo...I am ok with Garza