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Brewers acquire Shaun Marcum for Brett Lawrie 1 for 1; 3/24/12 -- Jayson Stark article


crewcrazy
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Only negative peripheral I saw on Marcum was a higher than average strand rate. Everything else looked good. His season was legit in my eyes and not a fluke.
"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006
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Close to 200 innings, a low 3 ERA, and very few walks. What is there not to like there?
What's not to like? The fact that Marcum has been a legit #2 guy for all of one season, and doesn't throw hard enough to give himself any room for error.

Unlike Lawrie, who has no question marks at all.
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Gallardo, Marcum and Wolf isn't bad folks.
But is it good? "Not bad" shouldn't be the goal. If the second pitcher Melvin is adding this offseason is someone roughly as good as Marcum, then I think our starting pitching will be pretty solid. If not, we're just marginally better than last season.
Stearns Brewing Co.: Sustainability from farm to plate
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I wish they hadn't had to trade Lawrie, but I think a lot of you are undervaluing Marcum...this guy can pitch.
This is true. Besides Cliff Lee, Marcum is probably better than any of the FA out there this year anyway and he is cheap (dollar wise). To put some perspective on it Jorge De La Rosa just signed for 3 years/$33million.
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Losing Lawrie is a jab to the gut, but I'll wait until at least the morning to pass too much judgment on Melvin.

 

Marcum made only $850,000 last year in his first arbitration season. Even if that shouldn't matter, his low salary last year will probably keep his salary down this year a bit. What's a reasonable arbitration estimate? $5MM? More? I won't lie, whether it's justified or not, his injury history scares me. Does anybody have an idea how much injury risk the Brewers are taking on here?

 

I don't mind losing Bucci, if that rumor is accurate. With the strong pitching waiting in the wings, he was expendable.

 

Can the Brewers acquire Justin Bieber and then trade him back to Canada?

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Unlike Lawrie, who has no question marks at all.

My comparison isn't between Marcum & Lawrie, it's between Marcum & other possible SP trade targets. If Lawrie were a Boston or NY prospect, he'd be all you were hearing about this offseason in trade rumors.

Stearns Brewing Co.: Sustainability from farm to plate
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First off, I love the deal. Convert the starts from Suppan, Parra, Estrada, and Davis to Marcum and the Brewers improved their team by a minimum 4-5 wins overnight. There is no doubt that the Brewers are a better team now than they were last season.

 

Also, while it's possible, I doubt that the trade is simply Marcum for Lawrie. There's likely to be other players involved on both sides.

 

I also think it's pretty safe to say that Fielder is not going anywhere this offseason.

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I can only hope that if Melvin was willing to deal Lawrie, he knows he can re-sign Rickie Weeks.
This is a silver lining I want to believe. Good point.

 

Close to 200 innings, a low 3 ERA, and very few walks. What is there not to like there?
What's not to like? The fact that Marcum has been a legit #2 guy for all of one season, and doesn't throw hard enough to give himself any room for error.

Marcum's swing and miss rate was well over average (10.8% to 8.4%). So he's not pitching to contact.

 

Go look at clips of him. His stuff is nasty. The ball moves everywhere. The guy is good.

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Funketown's comment about salary is key. Remember that coming into this offseason, we had a ton of money coming off the books (Suppan, Hall, Hoffman, etc.) and now have added a quality player for about $5M or less. We still have the flexibility to acquire more quality players.
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1. Owns "plus" fastball velocity?

2. Can throw a quality breaking pitch?

3. Has "solid arm action and delivery"?

4. Is 6-foot-2 or taller?

That whole thing was a joke.

 

For Marcum the answer is no, yes, no, no.

 

 

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I can only hope that if Melvin was willing to deal Lawrie, he knows he can re-sign Rickie Weeks.
This is a silver lining I want to believe. Good point.

 

Close to 200 innings, a low 3 ERA, and very few walks. What is there not to like there?
What's not to like? The fact that Marcum has been a legit #2 guy for all of one season, and doesn't throw hard enough to give himself any room for error.

Marcum's swing and miss rate was well over average (10.8% to 8.4%). So he's not pitching to contact.

 

Go look at clips of him. His stuff is nasty. The ball moves everywhere. The guy is good.

Could you post a few links? All I am finding is garbage on YouTube and Google.
"Fiers, Bill Hall and a lucky SSH winner will make up tomorrow's rotation." AZBrewCrew
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Lawrie is hardly a cant miss prospect; getting a #2 pitcher straight up for him seems like a pretty solid deal.

 

I think we are probably one more starting pitcher from being a serious contender (assuming Prince isn't traded). I think Gallardo, Marcum, 2nd half Wolf, Narveson, and another solid pick up would be good enough to seriously compete in the division assuming our offense stays intact.

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I really don't get what any of this has to do with Weeks - nobody even knows if Lawrie is going to stick at 2b and even if he does, it's highly unlikely that he will be MLB ready next season (when Weeks would leave as a FA).

 

Because Lawrie will likely only have tons of value at 2B. If he ends up being an OF, he could wind up just being a good but not great player, which isn't a big price to pay for a quality SP. If Weeks is signed to an extension, there would have been a lower probability of Lawrie being a huge factor for the Brewers. You can get guys with his batting potential in the OF, but 2B's with big bats are hard to find.

 

I don't get why lack of velocity is a huge negative for Marcum. All that matters is that you don't let batters hit the ball. Just ask Colt Griffin.

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Going by WAR, Marcum was tied for 40th among MLB pitchers in 2010. Gavin Floyd, who some at BF deemed not enough in return for one season of Fielder, was tied for 21st.

 

I'll stop posting on this for now & just say that I really, really hope my first-take reactions to this deal are wrong. I hope Marcum comes in & pitches like a stud.

Stearns Brewing Co.: Sustainability from farm to plate
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It stinks if we lose Lawrie...but at the same time Prince isn't bringing back much pitching right now either. You can't have it both ways. Who knows what Lawrie will turn into, but it is clear in baseball right now pitching >>> hitting in terms of trades. Let's see where Lawrie ends up in the field and also how good of a hitter he is at the MLB level. Let's not jump off rooftops just quite yet.

 

What did we expect for Lawrie? And more importantly...what is realistic?

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The Blue Jays were just rumored to be inquiring about Grienke.

 

Are they maybe looking to flip Lawrie?

Well that would look absolutely awful for Doug.

But if it ends up Morrow, Lawrie, and another prospect, I don't think we could or would want to compete with that.

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