Brewers acquire Shaun Marcum for Brett Lawrie 1 for 1; 3/24/12 -- Jayson Stark article

[jjkoestler]

I watched a highlight they had of him on MLB.com. And during the inning the announcer was talking about a conversation they had with Marcum and he was asked to describe himself as a pitcher, his response?

 

"I have below average stuff, but I am a bulldog. I win games on grittiness and heart and determination"

Marcum to KC for Greinke straight up. No way Ned can pass on him.

[trwi7]

Sarnia native Nick Bucci might be in the deal too.

 

Let's send another Canadian in the deal. Doug Melvin.

[dlk9s]

I'm not concerned with the Tommy John surgery - it's like a tonsilectomy nowadays. Well, I guess I'm more worried than I would be if he had never had it, but so many pitchers have come back strong from it (ex: the All-Star game this year) that I'm not going to wring my hands over it.

 

I wonder if trading Lawrie means they are close to an extension with Weeks.

[giffted1]

So looking this over.

 

1. Giving up our best prospect

 

2. Already had Tommy John surgery and is 29 with only two more years of control.

 

3. Has an average fastball under 88 mph in his career.

 

Safe to say I hate this deal.

Did you think Toronto would give him to us as a Christmas present?

 

I think it's pretty clear that:

- Marcum has recovered from his surgery.

- Marcum can be successful despite his low velocity.

- You're going to hate pretty much anything Melvin does.

[TooLiveBrew]

Trying to make myself feel better about this deal

 

Toronto’s third-round pick in the ’03 draft throws…well, what doesn’t he throw? Marcum has used his 87 MPH fastball less than 50% of the time, supplementing the pitch with a mid-80?s cutter, a mid-70?s curveball and a low-80?s changeup (some low-80?s sliders are sprinkled in, too). That repertoire, coupled with Marcum’s minuscule walk rate, screams “finesse.” That’s not the case, however. Despite not lighting up the radar gun, he’s employing the approach of a power pitcher.

 

Marcum’s stuff is fooling plenty of hitters. His swinging strike rate is 10.8% (8.4% MLB average), which is tied for seventh among MLB starters with teammate Brandon Morrow. His overall contact rate is 76.1% (81% MLB average), ninth among starters.

 

Not surprisingly, Marcum’s fastball doesn’t garner many whiffs — according to Pitch F/X data from TexasLeaguers.com, batters have swung and missed just 4.1% of the time that he throws the pitch (that’s whiffs out of total pitches thrown; the MLB average is around six percent). The rest of his pitches have above-average whiff rates, though. His curve has a 12% whiff%, slightly above the 11.6% MLB average, and his cutter’s causing hitters to come up empty 12.2% (8.4%). But it’s his changeup that’s really flummoxing the opposition. Marcum’s getting whiffs 26.9% of the time that he pulls the string, compared to the 12.6% big league average.

 

With so few walks, Marcum must be pounding the strike zone, right? Nope. He has located just 42.7% of his pitches within the strike zone. The major league average is 47%. Rather, Marcum is adept at getting batters to chase his stuff off the plate — his 33% outside swing rate is well above the 28.9% MLB average and places ninth among starters. Per Pitch F/X data from Joe Lefkowitz’s site, batters have chased Marcum’s cutter 34.9% of the time (27.5% MLB average, according to THT’s Harry Pavlidis). That’s nothing compared to the changeup, however — they’re hacking at 53.2% of changeups thrown out of the strike zone (30.7% MLB average).

FanGraphs: "Post-Tommy John, Marcum Strong"

 

Without good velocity, Marcum did a nice job of generating swings-and-misses last season.

[PKBadger]

At first when I saw this thread, I was really excited. But then I remembered Shaun Marcum isn't, in fact, Ricky Romero.

 

Based on their walk numbers, I'm kind of happy about this.

[trwi7]

Did you think Toronto would give him to us as a Christmas present?

No. I just don't feel this team is in a position to be giving up top prospects for non-ace pitchers who only have two years of control left.

 

[ELCABALLO45]

Lawrie is in the deal.

[Crew2323]

Haudricourt Twitter:

 

"A source in Canada just confirmed to me that Brett Lawrie indeed is in the deal to Toronto for Shaun Marcum. He is Brewers' No. 1 prospect."

[dlk9s]

Lawrie will be the PTBNL in the Villy trade.

[ELCABALLO45]

So we just traded our best prospect for a 29 year old pitcher who we will have control over for 2 years and is only 2 years removed form Tommy John Surgery?

[sveumrules]

Yeah, I think the main problem I have with it is that Marcum is only under control for two more years. Six years of Lawrie >>> Two years of Marcum.

 

That's why I thought McGehee is a better match. Four years of McGehee seems more equitable with two years of Marcum for me, especially as their values were essentially equal last year.

[UeckerAddict]

1.) We can't win with the staff we have.

2.) Good free agent pitchers don't want to sign with Milwaukee.

3.) If we sign Weeks to an extension we have a second baseman.

 

Maybe the trade isn't ideal, but people keep ripping of Doug for not getting pitching. This is what he has to do. There is no other way to get immediate pitching help. This shows me he wants to go for it this year and makes me believe that Prince will start the season in a Crew uniform.

[jjfanec]

Pitching is extremely hard to get and it gets harder every year. We gave up Laporta, Brantley and Bryson for half a year of CC. Now I know Marcum is nowhere near CC and I did not want to give up Lawrie, but pitching is very hard to get.

[TooLiveBrew]

Bringing in good pitching is praiseworthy. Giving away your best trading chip for 2 seasons of a solid pitcher isn't.

 

 

Lawrie could have highlighted a Greinke deal.

 

Unless Milwaukee is on Greinke's no-trade list.

[GB12]

"1.) We can't win with the staff we have."

 

True, but can we win with the staff we have plus Marcum? Within the next two years?

[TheCrew]

Marcum will be an ace in the NL - he put up a 3.64 ERA in the AL East last season (3.39 in 2008). He doesn't need to throw 95+ MPH to be an ace. Those are ELITE numbers playing in that division and it wouldn't surprise me in the least bit to see him outproduce Yo this season.

 

If Lawrie doesn't stick at 2b, his bat won't be missed nearly as much.

[chuckiehacks]

Yeah, I think the main problem I have with it is that Marcum is only under control for two more years.

I agree with this. However, they could always approach Marcum about an extension. Now would be the time - buy out the last two arby years and add a couple. Brewers get some cost control, Marcum would still be a FA in his early 30s, which would enable him to get an additional big contract from someone else for his mid-late 30s (assuming health).

[tyguy20204]

Well, I'll be one to say that I don't mind this deal, as long as it's not Lawrie + another A-list prospect. You've got to give to get, and I think Marcum will easily be the second best pitcher on this staff, immediately.

[pogokat]

if weeks gets resigned, then i'm not as miffed about trading lawrie...as good as he's been, i think his peak was weeks this year...

 

likewise, if weeks is resigned, the only place for lawrie to play woulda been 1st or 3rd...and i think gamel would outhit him at either of those places...actually, mcghee's numbers this year might be better than anything lawrie ever does..

 

not what i was expecting...but i really think this was a fair deal

[chuit11]

Greinke probably would have taken Lawrie and 2 high level pitching prospects. (Odorizzi/Jeffress/Rogers/etc...)

 

Plus he is making over 12 mil a year. (they would have control for 2 years)

[OldSchoolSnapper]

All those jumping on Marcum, I'd just like to point this out:

 

The number one comparison to Marcum on Baseball Reference similarity scores is none other than Yovani Gallardo.

You have to give to get. I feel like some of the fans are impossible to satisfy, short of us signing Cliff Lee. It's like everyone expects a Sabathia trade every time we go looking for a pitcher. I like this move regardless of who we gave up. Brett Lawrie isn't the missing piece, folks. At least Marcum is part of it. Get another pitcher and I think we can be OK.

[pretendastronaut]

I had to stop reading political news because it was frustrating. Only to go to twitter and get frustrated all anew by learning of this trade.

 

On one hand, I'm excited to see movement, on the other, this feels like a horrible overpay. If we think we can resign Weeks, I'm fine trading Lawrie, but I would expect a bigger package to be put together with Lawrie than this.

[pogokat]

for those who think lawrie gets a greinke deal done...do you really think melvin didn't call them first?

 

I would guess lawrie wasn't near enough for greinke...

[burnzy24]

I agree with this. However, they could always approach Marcum about an extension. Now would be the time - buy out the last two arby years and add a couple. Brewers get some cost control, Marcum would still be a FA in his early 30s, which would enable him to get an additional big contract from someone else for his mid-late 30s (assuming health).

Who is his agent? Lets hope it's not Boras.