Brewers acquire Shaun Marcum for Brett Lawrie 1 for 1; 3/24/12 -- Jayson Stark article

[Mass Haas]

Greinke probably doesn't waive his no-trade to Milwaukee without Marcum being on-board, and who's to say the Royals wouldn't have asked for Lawrie in their deal, probably with second base in mind.

 

The Marcum deal absolutely helped the Brewers enormously in the short term. It will live on for years on the other end where Lawrie will be a Canadian hero.

 

Extending Greinke prior to hitting the open market will blunt the long-term effect in a major way.

 

Be happy for the Jays, and don't feel too bad for the Crew.

[jjfanec]

I think it's pretty funny that people are trying to convince themselves that it's good that Lawrie isn't a Brewer because he's cocky. No, we definitely would not want his ability to mash in the middle of the lineup. Not with that mouth. No sir.

 

And I was and am fine with the Marcum trade, btw.

 

I think it is over-simplifying to say people are glad Lawrie isnt here because of his attitude. People would obviously be willing to accept his attitude issues if he was here, much like I was able to root for Prince even though I wasnt a big fan of his personality. I think it just makes the deal make more sense from the Brewers perspective if he had been really hard to work with. My question isnt the trade at all, it is just could have we gotten a better arm than Marcum whom I like a lot?

[burnzy24]

I think it's pretty funny that people are trying to convince themselves that it's good that Lawrie isn't a Brewer because he's cocky. No, we definitely would not want his ability to mash in the middle of the lineup. Not with that mouth. No sir.

 

And I was and am fine with the Marcum trade, btw.

 

I'm not saying it is good if Lawrie isn't a Brewer just because he is cocky. I love Braun and he is a very cocky player as well. My comment was more directed towards the way the Blue Jays are handling him. I'm actually not surprised that Lawrie thinks very highly of himself, most 19-22 gifted athletes do. However, from Doug's comments in the article, he was a 19-20 year old who thought he ran the show. Doug tried to reign him in during his time with the Brewers, which he should have, and Lawrie did not like it. Toronto does not seem to be doing anything close to what Doug was. Maybe it will hurt them and maybe it won't in the long run. But if he was a 20 year old in the minors telling the GM of a club how to do his job, imagine what he will be doing when he has been in the league a few years. There is potential for greatness with Brett, but there is also potential for major headaches.

[homer]

Lawrie would have been like Morgan - you root for him if he's on your team but if he plays for anyone else you think he's a total jag bag.

[Invader3K]

Lawrie would have been like Morgan - you root for him if he's on your team but if he plays for anyone else you think he's a total jag bag.

 

That's probably a good way to put it.

[jmeks23]

http://milwaukee.brewers.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20120324&content_id=27572238&notebook_id=27574864&vkey=notebook_mil&c_id=mil

 

The other side of it from Melvin. Good player, bad attitude.

[mothershipconnection]

So what exactly made him think he was owed a September call-up? He had posted a .797 OPS in AA. At age 20, that makes you a promising young player, not someone who's being screwed if they're kept in the minors.

[RockCoCougars]

I could definitely see this deal going down as another Sheffield trade, only this one would be even worse because Sheffield absolutely had to be moved back then, Lawrie was still 'savable' in my view.

 

At the same time, I cannot pretend like I wasn't surprised that Lawrie made the leap that he did last season. I was OK with the trade at the time it was made, however in hindsight there is no way that I do it.

[Dollarbill13]

The flaw in that article's "12 guys with whatever OPS at 21 years old" stat is that only two of the 12 had less than 400 ABs. One was McCovey at 192 and the other was Lawrie at 150. Keep in mind, too, that we traded him after a .795 OPS season in AA on the power of a .350 BABIP and a .164 ISO. BABIPs are typically higher in the minors so he certainly looked like he had a long ways to go. Focusing on the stats, he looked like he could be a solid but possibly unspectacular player in the bigs. Obviously, projecting a 20 year old is not the easiest thing to do. He did have the pedigree to hope for stardom but he certainly wasn't a "can't-miss" prospect at the time.

 

Then last year in the minors, his BABIP jumped to .380 and his ISO jumped through the roof. He was able to sustain the ISO in the bigs and maintain a solid batting average with a reasonably normal BABIP. His 2011 season was certainly the absolute best-case scenario for Lawrie and not something that Melvin or Toronto's management should have expected. What I find interesting about his big league stats is that his .318 BABIP was based on a 17% LD rate. A reasonable rule of thumb for BABIP is to take the player's LD rate and add 12% which would leave him at about a .290 BABIP. That would tell me that his batting average was somewhat inflated due to luck last year.

 

If I had to throw out a projection, I'd put him at about .275/.350/.500 for 2012. Those would be outstanding numbers for a 22 year old but I'm not ready to enshrine him into Cooperstown yet. The million (or hundred million) dollar question is how he continues to develop. His d-baggy pics from facebook at least proved that he keeps him self in top physical shape. If he can put in the effort to stay in top shape and master his craft, he could very well be an All-Star and MVP candidate for a long time. This could be one of those trades that bites the brewers in the butt but 1) that is the risk that you take when you trade prospects for established players, 2) his improvement over his seasons in the Brewers' system was extraordinary, and finally 3) we had this coming after we took the Indians to the cleaners a couple years ago with Sabathia.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Here's how I look at the Marcum-Lawrie trade: If it didn't happen, there's no way the Brewers win the division or even get in the playoffs last season, and it's likely that Melvin would have been looking for a different job. He knew 2011 was the Brewers' best shot at winning it all with Fielder still around and he went for it. Like others have said, if Lawrie wasn't part of the trade for Marcum he most certainly would have been for Greinke (if Greinke had even waived his no trade without Marcum being acquired).

 

Marcum had a horrible postseason and struggled down the stretch, but he was excellent in keeping the Brewers afloat during the 1st 1/2 of the season until Greinke rounded into form and the rest of the pitching staff stabilized. Sure it would be nice to have Lawrie in Milwaukee, but last I checked he isn't a pitcher. If you don't have enough pitching you have to pay dearly to get it (See the Reds with the Latos trade).

 

Based on what the Brewers' brass knew about Lawrie at the time, you make that trade 10 out of 10 times with the situation the big league team was facing going into 2011. I think he'll be a very good player, but I don't think he's going to be an organization-changer like a Braun or Fielder.

[crewcrazy]

At the time of the trade, Lawrie was a very nice prospect, but not quite can't-miss. He was Baseball America's #40 prospect prior to last season and there were still some big questions about his defense. When the Jays said they were still going to try him at third, there were more than a few that still scoffed at the idea.

 

After his trade "home," it seems like Lawrie actually dedicated himself and tried to get better. He actually played very solid D at third last year and hit for power. I'm not convinced these things happen if he's still in Milwaukee's system, especially if he held onto this complex that he was being screwed by the organization. In hindsight, I do wish the Brewers were able to get another piece along with Marcum for him, but there were still some doubts about whether or not Lawrie had the work ethic and attitude to put it all together.

 

If thinking the Brewers wronged him is what it took for him to get it, good for him. He's fun to watch. It would've been a shame if he never did put it all together.

[ttsather]

Sounds like he's doing well and has found an organizational atmosphere that works for him. Me-first players can be really, really successful when they have a team that is willing to keep them happy and when their natural skills are enough to pull them through. It's a very narrow track, though, and it doesn't take much to send things flying off the rails (see: Randy Moss, late-career T.O., Ryan Leaf, Milton Bradley, and many more).

 

I appreciate that Doug Melvin recognized that the Brewers' organization would've had to make some significant accommodations for Lawrie to reach his potential here and that he judged the benefit of those accommodations (a shot at a star infielder) to not be worth their costs (lots of special treatment for a me-first player who might not pan out and is almost certain to be a negative clubhouse guy at some point).

 

If Lawrie achieves a bunch of success in Toronto, my opinion is that the success can't just be transposed into the Brewers' lineup for purposes of later trade analysis. This article indicates that the organizations are just too different to make that sort of comparison possible.

[jerichoholicninja]

Does Lawire see any time in Milwaukee last year if he wasn't traded? Just curious. Casey's collapse would have been a reason but if Gamel wasn't given a chance I don't see why Lawrie would have gotten one.

[RockCoCougars]

I don't think that Lawrie gets to Milwaukee last season before September 1st. Assuming that he put up 75% of his West Coast stats in Nashville, I'd be willing to bet that the 'Call up Lawrie' thread would have been at least 40 pages by that point.

[jjfanec]

Toronto seems willing to take risks on me-first type players. The comments about Lawrie mirror those from Cardinals fans about Colby Rasmus. Lots of talent but also "do things my way attitude." Doesn't mean they wont be great players but Toronto is taking some big risks with attitude. Maybe the win and nobody cares. If they struggle it will be interesting.

 

None of this means I wish we didnt still have Lawrie. His bat seems dynamic and his Spring Training stats are ridiculous

[tstads20]

I actually think we may have seen Lawrie called up, but not because of McGehee's struggles; because of Week's injury.

 

If Lawrie stayed with the Brewers, he's probably still at 2B or dabbling somewhere in the OF. From what I remember, there was no plan to move him to 3B, though that could have changed following Week's extension.

 

Interesting to think about.

[TooLiveBrew]

Toronto seems willing to take risks on me-first type players. The comments about Lawrie mirror those from Cardinals fans about Colby Rasmus. Lots of talent but also "do things my way attitude." Doesn't mean they wont be great players but Toronto is taking some big risks with attitude. Maybe the win and nobody cares. If they struggle it will be interesting.

I'm responding mostly to your first line here... I think the Jays are willing to take risks on talent, not necessarily me-first guys. Anthopoulos seems close to 100% focused on talent, not much else. I think a season or two from now, we could easily be talking about the Blue Jays having one of the best left-sides of the infield in all of MLB.

 

I have to admit I'm a little envious of Jays fans; I wish Melvin would be more talent-focused than he is, but at this point I don't expect him to change. Anthopoulos sold incredibly high on Marcum & bought incredibly low on Escobar. Hard for me not to envy those moves.

[TheCrew07]

I think the larger problem that's on full display here between the 2 articles is that the Brewers don't really have a solid minor league plan for any of their tweener players.

 

Lawrie is a fantastic talent, but if his position switching was being driven by him and not the Brewers the long standing problem of getting the player to the proper position is worse than I thought it was. If they let him play 2nd because they though they were going to let Weeks walk and it suited his fast track mentality but it wasn't really working out and then were reluctant to move him to 3rd why? Because McGehee was there? I'm not down with minor league players dictating their positions but in this case he was actually correct, he should have probably been a 3B all along.

 

He might be a douche and he might be a me first guy, but it doesn't take much acumen with player development to hypothesize that he his likely destination was 3rd or a corner OF spot. Plenty of prospect gurus wrote it, plenty of posters on this forum agreed, it's not like the idea was revolutionary in any way.

 

If resigning Rickie was always part of the plan why would they have let Lawrie play 2nd at all? If resigning Rickie wasn't part of the plan, why would really good half a season change that plan? I'm not saying one shouldn't be flexible and adaptive, but this just screams of hoping the pieces fall into place on their own, there didn't appear to be any long-term plan for Bret or for Rickie. It seems like this whole relationship was destined to fail from the start... It makes me wonder what a guy with MLB bloodlines like Brantley was thinking when he was an OFer spending all his time playing 1B and DH? Why not start the young man in the field where he's ultimately going to end up playing? Put the talent where he slots best, not because he fills a hole a different position, not because his path to majors is quicker at that position, do what's best for the player an organization from the start.

 

I'm curious as to exactly what the organization was trying to change that he wasn't comfortable with and fighting? Was it his approach at the plate because that should be an easy thing to sell to a player who's all about MLB? I can understand a talent like Lawrie wanting to get to the big leagues as soon as possible, but what I don't understand is the enabling that went on. His family and the organization should have been nipping that in the bud right away.

 

I'm curious if there's even any of kind of progression mapped out for the hitters like Tunnel has setup for the pitchers? Does every kid have goals he needs to hit to continue his progression up the chain or are they just being thrown out there and letting the chips fall where they may because they need to fill out rosters?

[jjfanec]

Toronto seems willing to take risks on me-first type players. The comments about Lawrie mirror those from Cardinals fans about Colby Rasmus. Lots of talent but also "do things my way attitude." Doesn't mean they wont be great players but Toronto is taking some big risks with attitude. Maybe the win and nobody cares. If they struggle it will be interesting.

I'm responding mostly to your first line here... I think the Jays are willing to take risks on talent, not necessarily me-first guys. Anthopoulos seems close to 100% focused on talent, not much else. I think a season or two from now, we could easily be talking about the Blue Jays having one of the best left-sides of the infield in all of MLB.

 

I have to admit I'm a little envious of Jays fans; I wish Melvin would be more talent-focused than he is, but at this point I don't expect him to change. Anthopoulos sold incredibly high on Marcum & bought incredibly low on Escobar. Hard for me not to envy those moves.

 

Dont get me wrong I think Anthopoulos is doing a great job. He knows the only way to win in that division is going after young guys and he has done a really good job at acquiring talent. They are smart enough to only take "attitude" guys who can make their team a lot better. If their pitching holds up they will have a window where they are very good

[Tedaldtada]

I think the larger problem that's on full display here between the 2 articles is that the Brewers don't really have a solid minor league plan for any of their tweener players.

 

Seeing as you (TheCrew07) are the most vocal critic of the Brewers' minor league coaches and program, it is not a surprise that you would excuse Lawrie's incredibly poor attitude when he was here. It better serves your purpose. We constantly heard scouting reports talking about how Lawrie seemed disinterested in defense during his time here. Everyone described him as perfectly capable but seemingly unwilling. Then, incredibly, as soon as he was traded to his hometown team, he started working on his fielding.

 

My point is that Lawrie shouldn't even be considered a tweener. He is a guy perfectly capable of above average defense.

 

It makes me wonder what a guy with MLB bloodlines like Brantley was thinking when he was an OFer spending all his time playing 1B and DH? Why not start the young man in the field where he's ultimately going to end up playing?

 

When he first joined the Brewers, the kid could not throw. He had zero arm. I know he has worked hard to make it adequate now, but even that description is a little to rosy. Plus, I am pretty sure he was fighting off some sort of injury during that magical Hunstville 2008 season. I thought they were minimizing the risk of him aggravating it.

 

I'm curious as to exactly what the organization was trying to change that he wasn't comfortable with and fighting?

 

They probably encouraged him not to be so abrasive towards his teammates and fans. The other problem, in Lawrie's eyes, was that they were not moving him along fast enough. I guess being 20 in AA, and the second youngest player in the league, is much to deliberate for Brett Lawrie.

 

I'm curious if there's even any of kind of progression mapped out for the hitters like Tunnel has setup for the pitchers?

 

Of course there is. Long gone are organizations that 'wing it' or whatever you are implying.

[xisxisxis]

Long gone are organizations that 'wing it' or whatever you are implying.

 

I'm not sure what 'wing it' means, but it's pretty clear that the Doug Melvin era is littered with checkers type moves while other GMs are playing chess. granted there are a lot of GMs who appear to be checker players that doesn't mean we shouldn't desire more from our GM

 

Then, incredibly, as soon as he was traded to his hometown team, he started working on his fielding.

 

Lawrie is from BC. Toronto isn't his home town. maybe all canadians root for the jays thinking it's us vs them, but this isn't the olympics or world cup.

[Invader3K]

Long gone are organizations that 'wing it' or whatever you are implying.

 

I'm not sure what 'wing it' means, but it's pretty clear that the Doug Melvin era is littered with checkers type moves while other GMs are playing chess. granted there are a lot of GMs who appear to be checker players that doesn't mean we shouldn't desire more from our GM

 

Well, two playoff appearances in a four season span must mean that the "checkers" strategy is working.

[jerichoholicninja]

Maybe Lawrie was put at second because they knew they were going to trade him all along and wanted to get as much value as possbile since a good hitting 2nd baseman is more rare and more valuable than a good hitting 3rd basemen. Just a thought.

[Tedaldtada]

Then, incredibly, as soon as he was traded to his hometown team, he started working on his fielding.

Lawrie is from BC. Toronto isn't his home town. maybe all canadians root for the jays thinking it's us vs them, but this isn't the olympics or world cup.

Thank you, my mistake. I believe he indicated that he rooted for the Jays as a kid. Anyways, it is the closest thing he has to a hometown team in his country.

[Schlitz001]

I would assume he grew up as a Mariner's fan, but I wonder if he had a connection to the Blue Jays too since they've been the only team in Canada for a while now.