Brewers acquire Shaun Marcum for Brett Lawrie 1 for 1; 3/24/12 -- Jayson Stark article

[NievesNoNO]

crewcrazy[/b]]There's quite a gap between Lawrie partying like a lot of 20 year olds do (I won't say most or all, but a lot) and where Josh Hamilton wound up.

 

I'd say it's unfair to say Brett's headed down that path based on a few photos. I will say, though, that it's not very bright of him to put them up and not have some pretty strict privacy settings turned on. It's probably not even very smart to put them up on Facebook at all, but that's more of a problem with people in my generation than it is just him. The complete and utter lack of Internet Common Sense is probably something better left for the off-topic forum, though. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

Thank you for interjecting some sense into this. I love how passionate we all are about our favorite team, but sometimes I think its appropriate to take a small step back and look at what exactly we're trying to draw a conclusion from. I liked the trade, however I also think Lawrie's a heck of a prospect. Braun good? Maybe, I don't know but I won't rule it out. I don't really think a few pictures of a 20 year old partying is enough to make a judgement on one's ability to hit a baseball or on his work ethic. Heck, even if he suffers from poor judgement off the field that doesn't mean he can't dominate on the field. Does a still shot of Marcum's delivery motion showing an inverted W mean something? I'm not qualified to know and even if I was I don't think I could make a judgement on that information alone.

 

The way I see it the Brewers got a very good pitcher, which they desperatley needed, and the Blue Jays got a player they coveted who might turn out to be an All-Star. Perhaps the Brewers did have questions about Lawrie's attitude, but I would guess that was somewhere down the list of things being considered when making the deal.

 

[logan82]

I would hope the other SP Melvin is going to add is going to be better than Narveson. Besides, if the option is getting Marcum more starts or splitting up lefties, there's not a tough decision to me.

I am not sure it will really matter much in number of starts over the whole season unless you are going to skip a guy's turn through the rotation.

[PrinceEatMeat]

I really don't see Marcum being 3. I would think that Narveson will be 5, so there shouldn't be a problem with Wolf being 3. I would think the other starter we get will slot in at the 4 spot.

[Warning Track Power]

I really don't see Marcum being 3. I would think that Narveson will be 5, so there shouldn't be a problem with Wolf being 3. I would think the other starter we get will slot in at the 4 spot.

With Gallardo and Marcum both being #2s, Wolf being a #3 and Narveson being an iffy #5, the Crew needs to at the least bring in someone on par with a #3/Wolf. A guy like Jurrjens would fit the profile for me, a low to mid end #2 or strong #3.

 

 

[reillymcshane]

I hope Lawrie does great for Toronto. I hope Marcum does great for us.

 

Those the best trades - when everyone wins.

[Ennder]

Gallardo slots into a #1 slot even if it is a low end #1 after the year he put in last year, but we won't go into that again I guess. Marcum is a bit harder to judge but he is fine as the #3 and Wolf as a #4. I dont' think we have a true #2.

[rluzinski]

* I don't pretend to follow minor league prospects anywhere near as closely as many of you but Lawrie doesn't look like a stud prospect to me.

Why would you think that? BA had him rated as the 15th best prospect in baseball in their midseason rankings ahead of Kyle Drabek (main piece in the Halladay deal), Casey Kelly (main piece in the Adrian Gonzalez deal).

I told you exactly why. I simply looked at his very limited minor league stats and coupled that with the generally accepted opinion that he won't stick at 2B. Other, more informed people think he looks like a stud prospect? Great.

[joepepsi]

It's a good trade for both teams.

 

Both are accepting a certain amount of risk-how good will Lawrie be, especially if he doesn't cut at 2B vs. the ever present risk of pitcher injury and control/command guys just lose it sometimes and never get it back.

 

Upside for both teams-Lawrie could be great in the not-to-distant future vs. Marcum is just what the Brewers need for the next couple years.

[BrewCrewForever]

Thanks to Mass Hass for the links to the audio.

 

What time does WSSP's Hot Stove Weekly air on Monday's nights?

[trwi7]

Pretty sure it's 8.

[Oldcity]

Gallardo slots into a #1 slot even if it is a low end #1 after the year he put in last year, but we won't go into that again I guess. Marcum is a bit harder to judge but he is fine as the #3 and Wolf as a #4. I dont' think we have a true #2.

Marcum has to be considered a #2. He was 19th in the AL in WAR and 13th in xFIP last season, which makes him a strong number two/close to a number 1.

[TheCrew07]

Anyone who's actually read what I've posted will know that I coveted Marcum in 2008 prior to his injury and thought Melvin should have traded for him or McGowan straight up for Overbay instead of going for quantity MLB talent., This is like a bad joke... this trade is 3 years too late and they want to extend him if he pitches well? Seriously? Marcum is still a good pitcher, but he's already past his prime physically, he's no longer the young pitcher that could run the ball up there over 90 MPH.... fngraphs has his average FB velocity for 2010 at 86.9. He's always been a pitchability guy, but he'll be 29 next season, so color me unexcited, especially given that we gave up one of our a very select few impact bats in the minor leagues.

 

Those who said this is a typical Melvin move nailed it, he traded for another proven pitchability guy. I would have preferred someone with a higher ceiling or someone on the proper side of the injury nexus for a potential impact bat. Again, I like Marcum quite a bit, I always have, but physically he's a #4 or #3 type pitcher who pitchers like a #2 because of his smarts... he mixes in that change very effectively. He's also at the age where we should expect his numbers to start to slide a bit each year and I'm extremely concerned that the Brewers will extend him if he's pitching well. I desperately want to avoid multi year contracts with pitchers over 30 who's FB velocities are already below average, and it appears Melvin has set the stage for another one of those contracts.

 

Objectively this will be a better deal for Toronto if Lawrie pans out at all. They traded a quality pitcher at the right time for them for all the right reasons and received potential impact talent in return, who also happens to be Canadian. From the Brewer perspective they traded away a potential impact bat for 2 years of an aging pitchability guy... as much as I like Marcum, he's just not a guy I would have targeted at this time.

[sveumrules]

I don't have any actual facts to back this up but it seems like in lots of cases the 2nd year pitching after TJ is when pitchers really get everything back together. Cliff Lee is obviously the exception, but his average fastball velocity has been trending upward since he turned 30. I know Lee didn't have TJ, but just showing that a rise in FB velocity isn't completely unprecedented as a pitcher ages. All that said, I wouldn't be surprised to see Marcum put up an average FB velocity north of 88 this year which paired with his already effective change up and developing cutter should make for a fine #2/3 caliber pitcher.

[Mass Haas]

Audio interview with Shaun Marcum on Toronto sports radio Wed. AM.

 

He was at the Broncos - Chiefs game when notified of the deal. He'll be in Milwaukee on his birthday next week, along with his family.

 

Interview a lovefest between Marcum and the city via the radio hosts...

 

Also --

 

Ron Roenicke interview via WSSP as part of their Hot Stove Weekly show Tuesday 12/6

 

 

Toronto's GM discusses Brett Lawrie in detail in this additional audio interview.

[Thurston Fluff]

Marcum is still a good pitcher, but he's already past his prime physically,

 

29 is past prime?

 

One thing I don't get is why all the fuss about the injury? This is not a shoulder or back thing. It's a common injury whose prognosis after is very good and his recovery very near, if not totally, complete. I haven't seen anything ever to show that it is any more of a risk to reoccur than a for someone who hasn't had it yet. In fact I seem to recall several things to the contrary.

[Invader3K]

Crew07, I was wondering when you'd be showing up to dump cold water all over this trade.

 

I get that you don't like that he doesn't have a 95 mph fastball, but I think calling him a "pitchability" guy is a bit of a stretch. He apparently has one of the best changeups in all of MLB. As far as your comments about the Brewers re-signing him, we'll see. They have him for two years as of right now...his age 29 and 30 seasons. Those are prime years for virtually all good starting pitchers. I doubt they're going to lock him up to some huge 6 or 7 year deal at this point.

[monty57]

I don't have any actual facts to back this up but it seems like in lots of cases the 2nd year pitching after TJ is when pitchers really get everything back together. Cliff Lee is obviously the exception, but his average fastball velocity has been trending upward since he turned 30. I know Lee didn't have TJ, but just showing that a rise in FB velocity isn't completely unprecedented as a pitcher ages. All that said, I wouldn't be surprised to see Marcum put up an average FB velocity north of 88 this year which paired with his already effective change up and developing cutter should make for a fine #2/3 caliber pitcher.

I searched around a little and found this from Science Daily: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/07/080712090831.htm

 

"In the study, 743 patients who had the Tommy John surgery were contacted for follow-up evaluations and completed a questionnaire about their recovery. The majority of the patients were baseball players (94.5 percent), the remaining 5.5 percent were involved in track, football or other sports. The study found that 622 patients (83 percent) returned to the previous level of competition or higher. Of the major league players, 75.5 percent returned to the same level of play. For minor league players 56 percent returned to the same level or higher. The average time from surgery to full competition was 11.6 months after reconstruction, according to study results. Additionally about 10 percent of the patients had complications, mostly minor."

 

 

From reading numerous articles, it seems that although there have been tremendous strides in how to rehab after TJ surgery, it doesn't appear that there is a set timeline for recovery. The timeframe I read most often was "one-to-two years." If Marcum is throwing around the same velocity he was throwing prior to the injury, it would seem that he is among the 75.5% who return to the same level of play. I don't have anything except a little web surfing to base this on, but it is probably not out of the question to believe that his slightly slower fastball in 2010 was due to his arm not being fully recovered, so I wouldn't think it would be out of the question for him to add a MPH or two back to his fastball to get to his pre-surgery levels. Of course, he may not gain that MPH back, but it wouldn't seem to be a trend of his FB velocity declining, it would be due to the one-time incident of TJ surgery, which isn't likely to recur.

[davemakovec]

Francisco Liriano is one I hear a lot about up here in Twins-land. After his TJ, he was topping out at 90-91 in 2008. In 2009 that crept up to 93-94, and this year he was cranking away at 95-96, even touching 97.

 

Small sample, single observation, etc. but guys come back from TJ and sometimes throw harder, and it can take more than a year for that to show up. It happened to Volquez, too.

[dlk9s]

I said it earlier and I'll say it again. People need to stop worrying about his TJ surgery. It's not a revolutionary, risky procedure anymore. It's very common and many current, successful MLB pitchers have had it.

[davego]

No worries, Cheezie one...

 

FWIW, I'm ok with the trade. Prospects need to be used this way, sometimes.

[HiAndTight]

Francisco Liriano is one I hear a lot about up here in Twins-land. After his TJ, he was topping out at 90-91 in 2008. In 2009 that crept up to 93-94, and this year he was cranking away at 95-96, even touching 97.

 

Small sample, single observation, etc. but guys come back from TJ and sometimes throw harder, and it can take more than a year for that to show up. It happened to Volquez, too.

And he's still not back to pre-TJ status, so he's not a good example of TJ actually helping him.

[TheCrew]

And he's still not back to pre-TJ status, so he's not a good example of TJ actually helping him.

How is Liriano not back to pre-TJ status? Because he didn't match the 2.16 ERA he logged in his 2nd season when he pitched only121 innings?

 

He still put up a 3.62 ERA (even with an unlucky .340 on BABIP) during a full season rather than 2/3rds of one.

 

Carpenter, Hudson, Liriano, Rafael Soriano, Billy Wagner......... Just a few guys off the top of my head that have had TJ surgery and have come back just as good or better. It's a pretty common surgery now and with Marcum pitching as well as he did last season, it's pretty evident he is recovered and it should not be a major concern.

[TheCrew]

Marcum is still a good pitcher, but he's already past his prime physically, he's no longer the young pitcher that could run the ball up there over 90 MPH.... fngraphs has his average FB velocity for 2010 at 86.9. He's always been a pitchability guy, but he'll be 29 next season, so color me unexcited, especially given that we gave up one of our a very select few impact bats in the minor leagues.

Marcum could never run his fastball up over 90........... and he's been just fine.

[And That]

Marcum could never run his fastball up over 90........... and he's been just fine.

Marcum can/has pitched at 90 and slightly above out of the pen. And his 2005 BA Prospect Handbook profile notes he threw between 87-92 during the 2004 season, as a starter.

[TheCrew]

My bad - I was just going off fangraphs where the highest AVG they have on there is 89.4 from 2005 (8 Innings pitched)