Brewers acquire Shaun Marcum for Brett Lawrie 1 for 1; 3/24/12 -- Jayson Stark article

[HiAndTight]

Wow. Really surprised by some of the comments here. Lawrie has impressed for sure, but comparing him to Braun?

Braun's averages in the minors: .313/.375/.948

Lawries: .280/.343/.788

Slugging specifically was a difference of .572 to .445

I think Lawrie projects well, but I cant see anything that tips to a Ryan Braun type projection.

On top of that we all know the reason the Brewers were not competing for a playoff spot was because their pitching was garbage. DM goes out and gets the ace of the Jays staff who has put up very solid (Yo-like) numbers in baseball's toughest division for a single prospect and he gets busted up?

Marcum is a very good pitcher and on top of that grows a great beard. I can't see anything I don't like.

C'mon. We've been over this. Braun had 3 years of college. Lawrie is now 2 years out of high school and already in AA. It amazes me how often people just blindly compare minor league stats without taking into consideration the ages of players at each level.

[HiAndTight]

Interesting tidbit from TH's latest blog post

Sounds like a nice way of saying they didn't believe in him as a second baseman... and then the decision to deal him while he's still perceived as a possible second baseman makes plenty of sense.

Which meant that he was either going to be moved off 2B now so he could play at AAA which would ding his value or he would stay at 2B at AA behind Farris at AAA and ding his value.

Or it means they were going to move him over to 3rd as they suggested last season.

 

I get some like this trade more than others, but I don't get this need to try and make every comment about him as negative as possible.

 

I don't think anyone truly believes he was staying in AA in favor of Farris this year. That seems rather absurd. I also don't get why the part where Melvin talks about how versatile he is and how he is capable of moving and fitting in to a lot of positions is glossed over in favor of the "return to AA" idea.

[HiAndTight]

Deadspin's Look on the Trade

"On a scale of 1 to 5 tool playaz, this guy is definitely a 5" That had me laughing.

 

I do feel a little bit bad for the guy. In the interviews I've heard with him he seems like a nice kid. Who of us didn't have a 40 in our hands at one point in our teenage years. Fortunately facebook didn't exist when I was doing stupid things.

He also got his first taste of the big leagues today, when the

Milwaukee-based blog MillerParkDrunk.com posted a handful of

embarrassing pictures from his Facebook page. The more embarrassing

possibility, of course, is that these pictures do not embarrass him.

 

This part had me laughing.....and I do wonder if there is a bit of truth to it. Still, I can't fathom what my facebook page would look like if I had one when I was 17-18-19.....

 

Anyway, you obviously prefer a guy to be like Weeks, but for a 20 year old kid I don't think these are really all that damning. The biggest difference between his personality and Braun's is that Braun seems to be a lot more intelligent when it comes to his PR. There have certainly been some stories about his "shenanigans" while out on the town in Milwaukee. And incidentally, his personality was what Lawrie was compared to immediately after getting drafted.

[theavrock]

Wow. Really surprised by some of the comments here. Lawrie has impressed for sure, but comparing him to Braun?

Braun's averages in the minors: .313/.375/.948

Lawries: .280/.343/.788

Slugging specifically was a difference of .572 to .445

I think Lawrie projects well, but I cant see anything that tips to a Ryan Braun type projection.

On top of that we all know the reason the Brewers were not competing for a playoff spot was because their pitching was garbage. DM goes out and gets the ace of the Jays staff who has put up very solid (Yo-like) numbers in baseball's toughest division for a single prospect and he gets busted up?

Marcum is a very good pitcher and on top of that grows a great beard. I can't see anything I don't like.

C'mon. We've been over this. Braun had 3 years of college. Lawrie is now 2 years out of high school and already in AA. It amazes me how often people just blindly compare minor league stats without taking into consideration the ages of players at each level.

Fair enough, but it amazes me when people allow their personal biases to turn into "concrete" facts.

 

You like Lawrie, a lot, we get that, but show me something that shows we just gave up the next Ryan Braun. I haven't seen anything out there that suggests this. I haven't ever seen a tool that allows to compensate age when comparing players and what they have done at certain levels or I would have used it.

He has played good, but could just as easily fall off the face of the earth.

 

[davego]

"He researched the Brewers online last night. He knows schedule and rotation. Mentioned that he looks forward to pitching with Wolf, Gallardo and Narveson."

 

"Shaun does research? He's won me over."

 

...guys with a plus fastball don't have to do research.

[endaround]

Interesting tidbit from TH's latest blog post

Sounds like a nice way of saying they didn't believe in him as a second baseman... and then the decision to deal him while he's still perceived as a possible second baseman makes plenty of sense.

Which meant that he was either going to be moved off 2B now so he could play at AAA which would ding his value or he would stay at 2B at AA behind Farris at AAA and ding his value.

Or it means they were going to move him over to 3rd as they suggested last season.

 

I get some like this trade more than others, but I don't get this need to try and make every comment about him as negative as possible.

 

I don't think anyone truly believes he was staying in AA in favor of Farris this year. That seems rather absurd. I also don't get why the part where Melvin talks about how versatile he is and how he is capable of moving and fitting in to a lot of positions is glossed over in favor of the "return to AA" idea.

And if he's moved to 3B his value goes down.

[EdgarDiazRocks]

Braun's averages in the minors: .313/.375/.948

Lawries: .280/.343/.788

C'mon. We've been over this. Braun had 3 years of college. Lawrie is now 2 years out of high school and already in AA. It amazes me how often people just blindly compare minor league stats without taking into consideration the ages of players at each level.

I stand by my Daric Barton comp. Barton was a year younger at every level so far and considerably better than Lawrie, but took forever to develop against higher level pitching and didn't break through until his age 24 season and STILL has no power to go along with a butcher's glove. Without the 100+ BB Barton is basically useless. Lawrie doesn't have that level of plate discipline, but has more power potential and speed.

 

And that's if everything goes right. Dudes who duck tape 40's to their paws can have A LOT go wrong.

[CheezWizHed]

...guys with a plus fastball don't have to do research.

 

Manny Parra says hello. Can we please get over the "plus fastball" trip? Yes, all of us long for the next Nolan Ryan. But we need pitchers period. People rarely give up pitchers with low ERA and plus fastballs, because they are so extremely rare. And when they do, they are extremely expensive.

 

Yes, all things being equal, a bigger fastball is preferred (more room for error). But there are lots of pitchers with a big fastball that can't pitch.

 

I was not a big fan of Lawrie. I'm sure he will become a nice MLB player, but I really doubt we gave up anything special.

 

Question: Do you think Lawrie skipping the Arizona Fall League helped precipitate this trade?

[dlk9s]

CheezWiz,

 

davego was making a joke.

[Dragonbait]

CheezWiz,

 

davego was making a joke.

The Manny Parra reply was priceless though.

 

[sveumrules]

Haven't looked at the Lawrie pics but being young and doing stupid things/having character concerns does not preclude you from being a great hitter. Josh Hamilton, for instance. I did look at those pictures. And laughed. A lot.

[CheezWizHed]

CheezWiz,

 

davego was making a joke.

Sorry, I may have lost some context there. I left off at page 13 or 14 yesterday, and jumped into page 20 or 21 today...

 

Just tired of the "we must have power pitchers" or "we must have left/right SP balance" that keeps popping up. Lets start with pitchers that get outs. Its not like we are shopping at Wal-Mart with 47 variations of shampoo to choose from. Good SPs are a very limited supply.

[monkeyman343434]

Braun's averages in the minors: .313/.375/.948

Lawries: .280/.343/.788

C'mon. We've been over this. Braun had 3 years of college. Lawrie is now 2 years out of high school and already in AA. It amazes me how often people just blindly compare minor league stats without taking into consideration the ages of players at each level.

I stand by my Daric Barton comp. Barton was a year younger at every level so far and considerably better than Lawrie, but took forever to develop against higher level pitching and didn't break through until his age 24 season and STILL has no power to go along with a butcher's glove. Without the 100+ BB Barton is basically useless. Lawrie doesn't have that level of plate discipline, but has more power potential and speed.

 

And that's if everything goes right. Dudes who duck tape 40's to their paws can have A LOT go wrong.

Not to go too far off topic here, but my buddies and I used to do Edward 40 hands races, and I think we've done alright for ourselves. Graduated from a good school and now all have good jobs. Sorry we didn't stay in every Friday night to study.

 

Yeah, it's dumb a guy on his level allowed pictures like these to be seen by the public, but he's 20, obviously full of himself, and has somewhat of a reason to be. With that being said, I do like the deal. It's not certain what position he'll be able to play in the majors, and who knows what his bat will really bring.

 

[HiAndTight]

C'mon. We've been over this. Braun had 3 years of college. Lawrie is now 2 years out of high school and already in AA. It amazes me how often people just blindly compare minor league stats without taking into consideration the ages of players at each level.

Fair enough, but it amazes me when people allow their personal biases to turn into "concrete" facts.

 

You like Lawrie, a lot, we get that, but show me something that shows we just gave up the next Ryan Braun. I haven't seen anything out there that suggests this. I haven't ever seen a tool that allows to compensate age when comparing players and what they have done at certain levels or I would have used it.

He has played good, but could just as easily fall off the face of the earth.

 

Yup, that's GOT to be it. If you don't agree, well then it MUST be a personal bias, not an opinion as a Brewer fans.

 

That's asinine. I've never met the kid and I don't know him. I wouldn't want Gallardo traded either. I suppose that's a "personal bias" as well?

 

 

Look, Lawrie was the 15th ranked prospect in baseball at the mid-season point last year, and I suspect he's moving up at least a few spots when the next list comes out. Where was Braun ranked? But because Braun a couple years older put up better numbers, to compare the two leads you down the road that the only one way one could think Lawrie would be a comparable hitter is having a biased? Great argument....

[EdgarDiazRocks]

Haven't looked at the Lawrie pics but being young and doing stupid things/having character concerns does not preclude you from being a great hitter. Josh Hamilton, for instance. I did look at those pictures. And laughed. A lot.

No, but it doesn't help either. Hamilton was known before his "problems" for his work ethic and he's still known for it now. Took Hamilton a LONG time and good luck to come back. I'm not saying that Lawrie's a train wreck waiting to happen, I just think he should listen to another comp of his, failed prospect Chad Hermanson....

 

"I

just didn't take advantage of all the opportunities. Maybe I should

have listened to all the advice. It was one of those things, you listen

to what you want to hear and what you don't want to hear goes out the

other ear."

[bjkrautk]

Haven't looked at the Lawrie pics but being young and doing stupid things/having character concerns does not preclude you from being a great hitter. Josh Hamilton, for instance. I did look at those pictures. And laughed. A lot.

No, but it doesn't help either. Hamilton was known before his "problems" for his work ethic and he's still known for it now. Took Hamilton a LONG time and good luck to come back. I'm not saying that Lawrie's a train wreck waiting to happen, I just think he should listen to another comp of his, failed prospect Chad Hermanson....

Not to mention, Hamilton was 2 teams removed from the one that drafted him before he even reached the majors. After having been out of baseball for 3 seasons (2003-05), Josh was a Rule 5 pickup by the Cubs, who sold his contract to the Reds the same day. Tampa Bay would have received far more in value had they dealt Hamilton while he was still a prospect.

 

Not a good example.

 

 

[Mass Haas]

Audio interview with Shaun Marcum on Toronto sports radio Wed. AM.

 

He was at the Broncos - Chiefs game when notified of the deal. He'll be in Milwaukee on his birthday next week, along with his family.

 

Interview a lovefest between Marcum and the city via the radio hosts...

 

Also --

 

Ron Roenicke interview via WSSP as part of their Hot Stove Weekly show Tuesday 12/6

 

[sveumrules]

The situations aren't exactly the same, of course, but there are certainly parallels. Lawrie is a 20 year old kid with a bank account and questionable judgement.

 

Josh Hamilton already went through all his troubles and allegedly conquered his demons when the pictures of college girls doing body shots off of his abs showed up online last year. And this is a married man who had dedicated his life to the lord.

 

My main point being just because you're a bonehead doesn't mean you can't win an MVP or seven, just ask Barry Bonds.

[crewcrazy]

There's quite a gap between Lawrie partying like a lot of 20 year olds do (I won't say most or all, but a lot) and where Josh Hamilton wound up.

 

I'd say it's unfair to say Brett's headed down that path based on a few photos. I will say, though, that it's not very bright of him to put them up and not have some pretty strict privacy settings turned on. It's probably not even very smart to put them up on Facebook at all, but that's more of a problem with people in my generation than it is just him. The complete and utter lack of Internet Common Sense is probably something better left for the off-topic forum, though. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif

[TooLiveBrew]

Tom Haudricourt, team-builder: Right now, Marcum is probably in the No. 3 slot behind Gallardo and Wolf.

 

http://i.min.us/idrjf0.gif

[crewcrazy]

I could see the Brewers doing that, actually, to break up Wolf and Narveson in the rotation. There's a difference (albeit a small one) between being in the #3 slot and being the #3 pitcher, IMO.

 

Edit: Looks like logan beat me by a few seconds.

[logan82]

Tom Haudricourt, team-builder: Right now, Marcum is probably in the No. 3 slot behind Gallardo and Wolf.

 

http://i.min.us/idrjf0.gif

Not based on talent but to split up the lefties in the rotation.

[TooLiveBrew]

I would hope the other SP Melvin is going to add is going to be better than Narveson. Besides, if the option is getting Marcum more starts or splitting up lefties, there's not a tough decision to me.

[BritInWI]

"He researched the Brewers online last night. He knows schedule and rotation. Mentioned that he looks forward to pitching with Wolf, Gallardo and Narveson."

 

"Shaun does research? He's won me over."

 

...guys with a plus fastball don't have to do research.

They just have to learn a couple more pitches. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/tongue.gif

[gregmag]

In my humble opinion, some of the comments on both sides of the Lawrie debate have been a bit hyperbolic. What we have here is a guy who hit very well in AA as a 20 year-old. Guys like that sometimes grow up to be Ryan Braun, but I don't think you can fairly assume that anybody will develop to that level. Ryan Braun is an established major league star whose first four seasons compare to the early careers of quite a few Hall of Famers. Even if Lawrie had absolutely dominated AA pitching, which he didn't, you couldn't project him out to that level. Braun is just too good. Lawrie has established a chance to become that good, but he'll have to clear a bunch more hurdles before he gets there.

 

At the same time, I don't think you can say there's a meaningful chance Lawrie will crash and burn. He could crash and burn; anybody could. But Lawrie has built up an impressive performance record to date, and nothing about him suggests a special likelihood of cratering. Not many hitters can thrive in AA at age 20, and I suspect that not many guys who have done so have failed to have good major league careers.

 

Personally, I think Lawrie will end up as a very good MLB hitter at a corner position. If the corner position is 3b, he seems to me like a reasonable bet to play in some All-Star games. I don't see any affirmative evidence, yet, that would lead me to bet he'll become Ryan Braun. For me, trading that player for a number 2 starter is a fair deal, especially given the Brewers' distribution of resources.