Brewers acquire Shaun Marcum for Brett Lawrie 1 for 1; 3/24/12 -- Jayson Stark article

[jjkoestler]

Just to add a little levity to this thread, there is this portrait (so to speak) of Lawrie.

Thank you for sharing the link. I liked the trade before I saw the pictures but now I love it. Lawrie will have to play Edward 40 hands with LaBatt now.

[chuckiehacks]

I think he's going to be a guy who hits 30-35 a year with a .290+/.380/.900 OPS.

I agree Lawrie could become a great player. However I'm curious what makes you think he'll reach this level, since the OBP and SLG numbers you project are significantly higher than any of his minor league numbers.

 

[trwi7]

However I'm curious what makes you think he'll reach this level, since the OBP and SLG numbers you project are significantly higher than any of his minor league numbers.

Age matters. When you're the second youngest player in your league and post an .800 OPS which is top 15ish in that league, it means you know what you're doing with the bat.

 

[bigredrobbo]

"I just think he traded away Ryan Braun for....a better version of Dave Bush."

 

 

Wow - time will tell I guess, but that seems like hyperbole of the worst kind. Marcum is a much, much better version of Dave Bush. And unless you mean the Ryan Braun that is the former KC pitcher, I'll be stunned if Lawrie ends up even 75% of the player that Braun is.

I believe I said a better version of Dave Bush. But lets try to look at the Dave Bush we got. Everyone was raving about his previous season, and peripherals in the vaunted AL East.

 

 

And I think you will be stunned then.

"Better" needs a little quantification. Sabathia for example, is better than Dave Bush, much better. Had we gotten, say Jon Garland, for Lawrie, I'd agree with you. Shaun Marcum is a surprisingly good guy for another team to trade away, given his opening day status with TOR last year. I like Lawrie a lot, but we need pitching, so if we've slightly "lost" this trade on paper, at the moment, I'll take it. I don't think we have lost, and time will tell if Lawrie ends up like Braun or not. We've shown we can draft and develop Lawries. Marcums, not so much...

[SoCal Brew Crew Fan]

Regardless of how the talent plays out on both sides, I'm just glad after seeing those pictures that I don't have to pretend to like Lawrie just because he's a Brewer.

[Warning Track Power]

We've shown we can draft and develop Lawries. Marcums, not so much...

And this may just be the best way to sum this trade up. I'm taking the wait and see approach, but if Marcum pitches like he has over the past few seasons with Gallardo-esque numbers, even if Lawrie becomes a Ryan Braun, we have won this trade.

[Thurston Fluff]

I like Lawrie a lot, but we need pitching, so if we've slightly "lost" this trade on paper, at the moment, I'll take it. I don't think we have lost, and time will tell if Lawrie ends up like Braun or not. We've shown we can draft and develop Lawries. Marcums, not so much...

 

It takes me half a page to say what you did on a couple sentences. Couldn't agree more. We traded from something we have, relatively speaking, a lot of for something we had little of.

[TooLiveBrew]

I'm taking the wait and see approach, but if Marcum pitches like he has over the past few seasons with Gallardo-esque numbers

 

I just want people to talk about this realistically. Marcum has done that ONE season, not "the past few". If he pitches like he has the past few seasons, the Brewers added another Randy Wolf.

[HiAndTight]

I think he's going to be a guy who hits 30-35 a year with a .290+/.380/.900 OPS.

I agree Lawrie could become a great player. However I'm curious what makes you think he'll reach this level, since the OBP and SLG numbers you project are significantly higher than any of his minor league numbers.

Because usually hitters add power as they grow, and Lawrie as a 20 year old in AA showed pretty good plate discipline.

[Invader3K]

I'm taking the wait and see approach, but if Marcum pitches like he has over the past few seasons with Gallardo-esque numbers

 

I just want people to talk about this realistically. Marcum has done that ONE season, not "the past few". If he pitches like he has the past few seasons, the Brewers added another Randy Wolf.

Marcum had a very good 2008 season as well. 3.39 ERA and 1.163 WHIP.

[chadomac]

If you average his last 3 full seasons together, his ERA is 3.72. In the AL East. That's excellent.

[TooLiveBrew]

Along with FIP/xFIP numbers of 4.46/4.24, a strand rate of 80.2%, and a BABIP of .257

[bigredrobbo]

I'm taking the wait and see approach, but if Marcum pitches like he has over the past few seasons with Gallardo-esque numbers

 

I just want people to talk about this realistically. Marcum has done that ONE season, not "the past few". If he pitches like he has the past few seasons, the Brewers added another Randy Wolf.

Last 3 years	Team	G	GS	W	L	SV	BS	HLD	CG	SHO	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	WHIP	BAA
2007	TOR	38	25	12	6	1	1	1	0	0	159.0	149	76	73	27	49	122	4.13	1.25	.249
2008	TOR	25	25	9	7	0	0	0	0	0	151.1	126	60	57	21	50	123	3.39	1.16	.222
2010	TOR	31	31	13	8	0	0	0	1	0	195.1	181	84	79	24	43	165	3.64	1.15	.242
Career (Full)		120	95	37	25	1	1	1	1	0	592.0	549	264	253	86	184	479	3.85	1.24	.244

 

The past few (other than the year off with TJS) he's been better than league average - much better in 08 and this year. For a better team (and an easier division) than Toronto he's a 17 win pitcher, IMO and round these parts, those are pretty darn rare.

[homer]

However I'm curious what makes you think he'll reach this level, since the OBP and SLG numbers you project are significantly higher than any of his minor league numbers.

Age matters. When you're the second youngest player in your league and post an .800 OPS which is top 15ish in that league, it means you know what you're doing with the bat.

His SLG was very triples heavy which is hard to reproduce. Without seeing those triples it's hard to say whether they were grounders or liners or what so it's difficult to project if they'll turn into home runs as he ages.

[davemakovec]

Seriously, Dave Bush's comparables to age 29 are Jon Lieber, Brian Moehler, Josh Fogg, Joe Mays, etc. This is not a rich man's Dave Bush. Compare that to Marcum's comparables today. Gallardo, Liriano, Jurrjens. Right there is more talent than the entirety of Bush's comparables list. The sky is not falling. This is a great trade, and it's just one prospect.

[TooLiveBrew]

The past few (other than the year off with TJS) he's been better than league average - much better in 08 and this year. For a better team (and an easier division) than Toronto he's a 17 win pitcher, IMO and round these parts, those are pretty darn rare.

 

Read the post above yours in reference to his '08. He pitched a little better in '08 than he did in '07, but had better BABIP & strand rate luck in '08. He's had one really good season, and as Brewers fans we have to hope that's what his true talent actually is at this point. I just don't think it's a bulletproof assumption.

 

 

EDIT: McCalvy's latest blog post included the following: "The Shaun Marcum-Brett Lawrie was met with some surprise in the lobby of

the Walt Disney World Swan & Dolphin resort by a handful of rival

executives who didn't know Lawrie was available."

[Thurston Fluff]

A little surprising that someone wouldn't know he was available. Especially considering it has been known the Brewers were willing to look at all options. I suppose if a team didn't have have what we want why would anyone from the Brewers tell them anything.

[Ennder]

I don't mind Lawrie for Marcum but the one thing that does bother me is I'd much prefer Lawrie+someone for someone with more time or more upside than Marcum. So if rival executives had no idea Lawrie was available that bothers me some.

[TooLiveBrew]

I don't mind Lawrie for Marcum but the one thing that does bother me is I'd much prefer Lawrie+someone for someone with more time or more upside than Marcum. So if rival executives had no idea Lawrie was available that bothers me some.

This was my reaction to reading that. Just seems like Melvin could've generated more interest in Lawrie; but maybe Buc's point is the reality.

[Hofbraunhaus]

It is a little troubling that there were executives who weren't aware that Lawrie was available if true although I think most people knew that nearly everyone in the Brewers organization is "available" this offseason. These executives could also be from teams that didn't have anyone Melvin was interested in. Since I haven't commented on the trade yet, I'll just say I'm happy with it. Marcum pitched very well in a tough division last year. I've also always been a little confused as to where Lawrie fit exactly in the Brewer's plans for the future.

[Weirdos19]

A little surprising that someone wouldn't know he was available. Especially considering it has been known the Brewers were willing to look at all options. I suppose if a team didn't have have what we want why would anyone from the Brewers tell them anything.

Agreed 100%. I would guess that teams outside LA, TB, CWS, SF, SD, Boston, Tor, KC, and Texas would not be getting calls from DM.

 

But I would be surprised that Hellickson's name hasn't come up yet.

[gregmag]

I love our prospects; I overvalue them unapologetically. Lawrie looks to me like he'll hit enough to stick at 1B / corner OF in the bigs and thrive. Guys like that are always useful. We realistically could end up regretting this deal in two years.

 

But right now, based not on hyperbole but on what both guys have shown to date, the deal makes a lot of sense. Marcum's numbers are those of a #2 pitcher, and although he hasn't performed at that level for long, (a) it isn't like he had a bad pedigree before 2010, and (b) guys who have performed at that level for years already are either closer to declining or superstars.

 

Lawrie has shown no signs of sticking at a key defensive position. He could turn into Ryan Braun, and you can't say that about everybody, but he hasn't established that level of promise yet. In any event, we have five pretty good, relatively young corner players at the moment (I count Gamel; I know not everyone does). Two of those guys could get hurt, and then we'd miss Lawrie -- although maybe not this year. But we're already short on pitching, and that isn't like a flukish condition.

 

It seems to me like a bold, pragmatic, sensible trade, on both sides.

[UeckerAddict]

A little surprising that someone wouldn't know he was available. Especially considering it has been known the Brewers were willing to look at all options. I suppose if a team didn't have have what we want why would anyone from the Brewers tell them anything.

For a potential three team trade. Maybe one of those teams wants Lawrie, and that team has something the Royals want, and we can get Greinke (hypothetical example). But, as it is, I am fine with the way things went down.

[jjkoestler]

I thought this was an interesting read.

 

http://www.theglobeandmai...s-sister/article1826579/

[Mr QL]

Well not as bad now that we know it's just Lawrie straight up and not him + additional prospects. I hope we can get Weeks his extension ASAP. I'd be hesitant to extend Marcum with his arm trouble too.