Brewers acquire Shaun Marcum for Brett Lawrie 1 for 1; 3/24/12 -- Jayson Stark article

[TooLiveBrew]

I couldn't agree more. Marcum is an ace. I get the injury concern but the guy has a decent track record for being very good. I'm not sure what some of you need for proof, but he's got around 500 innings of proof and consistency.

 

Marcum has only been an ace for one season. And if you get technical, he wasn't an ace, he was a #2-caliber pitcher in terms of WAR. My precise problem with this trade is that Marcum doesn't have a strong track record, but it seems some at BF are prepared to proclaim him at least as good as Yo. His FIP/xFIP numbers for '08 & '07: 4.93/4.42, 4.46/4.24; for '10 they were 3.74/3.90.

 

I want to believe Marcum is a legit #1 or #2 type pitcher, and I want see him go out & prove my concerns foolishly wrong -- and see that Melvin uncovered a blossoming ace before he became unaffordable. But imo when you look at Marcum's track record, you don't see an ace, you see a guy that pitched very well for the first time in '10 but still has a lot of question marks.

 

I don't mean this a piling on Marcum, but I thought it was an interesting tidbit. His OPS allowed v. RH last season was .859, compared to a filthy .532 v. LH. His career split is also reverse -- .752 to .703.

[EdgarDiazRocks]

Look at his whole MiLB career not just last year.

Hey, guys. Your gonna find no bigger Gamel fan that me outside of TLB, and I hope that's right and he'll be fine, but the higher the level, the better the quality of LHP and the worse his splits have gotten.

 

Hey look, I'm on THE OTHER side of a Mat Gamel argument?

 

Weird,

 

And of course all of this presumes that Roenicke doesn't hate him anywhere NEAR the level that Macha did.

[clint1313]

You're probably right, logan. It just seemed like there are a lot of people down on this trade because Marcum has only two years. You just can't get a top of the rotation starter for three years or more without giving up boatloads of talent. I'm not saying Lawrie isn't talented, but its just one guy whose main talent is offense. As many have already stated, you gotta give to get.

[Weirdos19]

I'm trying to figure out why people think this deal is bad.

 

1. We get an arm. A solid #2. Threw 195 innings with a whip of 1.24. Less hits than innings pitched in the AL East. They played 51 games against the Rays, yanks, and Red Sox.

 

2. Lawrie is far from a sure bet. Not a good attitude or work ethic.

 

3. We didn't give up a man in this year's plans. If we are going to go for it, why are we worried?

 

4. Most players peak at 27 years old. If Lawrie is 22 when he makes the majors, we would only have him for 2 of his peak years. The same length of time we have Marcum as of right now.

 

5. He is blocked at every position he could play.

[And That]

I like the trade and could love the trade if it leads to extensions for Weeks and Marcum, as others have noted. I would wait to extend Marcum until I've seen him pitch for a half season or so, but then I hope they can get something done. I'm not optimistic about the Brewers re-signing Weeks, but there's a chance.

 

Lawrie is an elite hitting prospect and, following in a long line of Brewers hitting prospects, can't field. That makes him something less than an elite prospect, and the character issues don't help his cause. I'm quite sure he'll become a good hitter for the Jays, but I'm almost as sure his value will be mitigated by what he does in the field. And what he does in the field will almost certainly not be done at 2B, and probably not at 3B either.

[Paulus88]

trwi7[/b]]Marcum went from 89.4 in his rookie year to 88.1 to 87.8 to 86.8 to 87.1. He's already losing velocity. Over 2 mph since his rookie year. I don't know how that's not a concern if that trend keeps up.

 

I think some of that is misleading since he only pitched 8 innings as a reliever his rookie year. He really wasnt a full time starter until 2007. Fangraphs has velocities on his fastball at 87.6, 87.0 and 86.9. They also say he started to cut his fastball which may take some velocity (or less than an MPH difference between pre and post TJ years). In fact their graphs seem to suggest a more consistent (start to start) fastball velocity now then in 2007.

[monty57]

Earlier someone mentioned that Gamel was the blocked prospect, not Lawrie, and I agree to a point. I'm sure that if we could have landed Marcum for Gamel, Melvin would have rather made that deal. However, even though Gamel was the Brewers top prospect, and a can't miss stud a couple of years ago, his star has faded and he wouldn't have brought back Marcum in trade. Unfortunately, unless Fielder is traded, Gamel will likely either have to suffer another year in the minors or ride the MLB bench as backup 3B/1B/corner OF. So instead, we have to use our current top prospect / can't miss stud to make this deal.

 

The fact that we have all of our position players other than Weeks and Fielder under control for a long time, and are working on an extension for Weeks, makes high-level position prospects available for trade. Lawrie currently has more trade value than Gamel, so he was the guy used to bring back a front-of-the-rotation starter. As many have mentioned, if Lawrie has to play 1B, his bat isn't all that special, and 1B looks to be the only spot that would be open for him to play.

 

In any 1-for-1 trade, there is a chance that one of the players flames out, but it appears on the surface that both teams can win in this trade. The Brewers are much better than they were prior to the trade, and Toronto has a talented prospect that will probably have a place to play in their system.

[TooLiveBrew]

2. Lawrie is far from a sure bet. Not a good attitude or work ethic.

 

Attitude, yes. But work ethic? Where have you read or heard anything about that?

[logan82]

It just seemed like there are a lot of people down on this trade because Marcum has only two years.

Service time is huge to an organization like Milwaukee. 6+ years of a cost controlled player for 2 of another seems like a bad deal. I would have rather kicked in a couple extra players for more years of control. If Marcum will sign an extension, and there are rumors he might be interested, and this ends up being 4 years of Marcum, I will make a 180 on this deal.

As many have already stated, you gotta give to get.

Ugh, I think we know that. People just think we gave up to much.

[endaround]

2. Lawrie is far from a sure bet. Not a good attitude or work ethic.

 

Attitude, yes. But work ethic? Where have you read or heard anything about that?

He did skip the AFL correct?

[amt2138]

I could be totally making this up, but I thought I remembered hearing that scouts or coaches were saying they were disappointed in Lawrie not taking extra time to work on his defense and footwork at 2B when he badly needed it. Again, I don't follow prospects all that closely, but I thought I remembered seeing that on the minor league forum. That would obviously be an indication of poor work ethic.

[dlk9s]

I get how valuable pitching is obviously, how difficult it is to acquire, but for a guy coming off TJ surgery, for a guy who doesn't throw hard meaning any loss in velocity could really kill him, I don't like this trade.

a) We're about to enter the year 2011. Tommy John is almost a routine surgery at this point. Pitchers come back from it just fine all the time. It's really not an issue. 10 pitchers in the 2010 All-Star game, including Chris Carpenter, have had TJ surgery.

 

b) In my opinion, the fact that Marcum doesn't throw hard will be an advantage as he ages. He doesn't rely on a power fastball to blow by hitters. He won't have the problem that many pitchers do when their fastball drops from 96 to 92 to 90 to 88. He already has other plus pitches.

[Invader3K]

Haudricourt with this juicy tidbit on his latest blog update:

 

This is not to say the Brewers wouldn't trade Cain. It would just have to be a blockbuster, a la Zach Greinke. And, speaking of Greinke, that same very good source told me the Brewers made two attempts already to trade for the KC ace but the price was way too high -- far beyond Brett Lawrie. That's when they refocused on Toronto's Shaun Marcum and sent Lawrie there.

 

So this probably puts most talk of Greinke to the Brewers to rest.

[chuckiehacks]

Just to add a little levity to this thread, there is this portrait (so to speak) of Lawrie.

[bball123h]

Those are some... interesting... photos. I can't help but feel like he'd be the guy running around "icing" bros in the bar.

 

Too bad NJ doesn't have a team.

[Warning Track Power]

Just to add a little levity to this thread, there is this portrait (so to speak) of Lawrie.

This just became the best trade in Brewers history. I despise Bros.

 

Nice abs Lawrie.

 

[bigredrobbo]

"I just think he traded away Ryan Braun for....a better version of Dave Bush."

 

 

Wow - time will tell I guess, but that seems like hyperbole of the worst kind. Marcum is a much, much better version of Dave Bush. And unless you mean the Ryan Braun that is the former KC pitcher, I'll be stunned if Lawrie ends up even 75% of the player that Braun is.

[Ennder]

Pitchers almost universally lose velocity with age so you have to be careful with that kind of trend.

[Mudville9]

Just to add a little levity to this thread, there is this portrait (so to speak) of Lawrie.

Wow. I may have to check out that site a bit more often. The pic where they are all wearing unitards needs to be sent to the Toronto Star. I am a much bigger fan of this trade right now. DM rocks.

 

[HiAndTight]

And I think it's pretty "silly" to argue that his value has peaked as a 20 year old.

 

So there you go. And I think 3rd base is far more likely than a Corner OF for him.

Is his value likely to go up anymore though? Everyone knows he can hit - the only way it could go up is if he sticks at 2b and he rakes this next season. Even if he hits well this next season, but has to move to a different position - I'd say his value takes a hit.

I suppose it's obvious I think so. I think he's a far better fit at 3rd base than he is at 2nd, I think he's going to be a guy who hits 30-35 a year with a .290+/.380/.900 OPS. I think what you saw as a guy getting pushed as a 20 year old in AA suggests that he may not have topped out just yet.

[HiAndTight]

Yes Gamel's still blocked and he needs to be platooned, but there's NO evidence that Lawrie's better and he's on the wrong side of the platoon/power battle.

I'm pretty sure Gamel hits lefties better than righties, actually. He wouldn't need a platoon partner, he just needs to be able to play defense.

 

 

I didn't want to go off topic so I was trying to avoid responding, but you are correct about Gamel. I don't get why people assume he should be platooned.

Because people don't believe that his platoon splits will maintain and frankly don't know that he's such a good hitter vs lefties. I was guilty of the same logic(or lack thereof) when he came up. He really is a fantastic hitter vs lefties though.

[HiAndTight]

 

Attitude, yes. But work ethic? Where have you read or heard anything about that?

He did skip the AFL correct?

That's enough to cement his status as lazy, or lacking work ethic?

 

I'm not sure many guys in this organization have played as many games as Lawrie over the last 18+ months.

[HiAndTight]

"I just think he traded away Ryan Braun for....a better version of Dave Bush."

 

 

Wow - time will tell I guess, but that seems like hyperbole of the worst kind. Marcum is a much, much better version of Dave Bush. And unless you mean the Ryan Braun that is the former KC pitcher, I'll be stunned if Lawrie ends up even 75% of the player that Braun is.

I believe I said a better version of Dave Bush. But lets try to look at the Dave Bush we got. Everyone was raving about his previous season, and peripherals in the vaunted AL East.

 

 

And I think you will be stunned then.

[dpapo]

According to Haudricourt, the Brewers plan on offering Marcum an extension, though it doesn't say when. Also confirms that he has heard, before today and at the winter meetings about Lawrie needing an "attitude adjustment."

I still think the Brewers probably gave up too much, but most likely the going rate for a starting pitcher of Marcum's quality. Whether Marcum is or isn't an ace, don't think he will pitch like an ace for the Brewers, but assuming he stays healthy and doesn't have control problems and so on, should be a solid 3 and possible a no. 2 pitcher. Guess just a bit worried about his past injury and would feel a bit better about the trade if he did throw in the low 90's. If he pitches like he did a year ago for the Brewers for at least the next couple years, then I think most people would think it was a good deal. Most likely will end up being a good deal for both clubs, just a bit worried about the things I mentioned.
With all that said, if I were Doug Melvin, I probably would have made the trade.

[Thurston Fluff]

If you don't mind, I'll bookmark this for future discussions on Melvin. If we're going to blindly have faith in Melvin on this issue because he's been around for a while, then I suppose the same arguments could be made for Suppan, Hawkins, the Lee trade, the Sexon trade, the lack of a Prince trade and other moves that he generally gets lambasted for.

 

All I said is Melvin has shown he does make good trades when available. What does that have to do with his record of FA signings? As far as the Sexon trade I don't know how that could have been viewed as bad. WE got 6 players for someone who did squat after he left here. While some don't work out they all made some amount of sense at the time and there was no better one offered that I ever heard of. Saying he should have done something else without knowing there was something else to be done is to assume DM just doesn't know what he's doing. He has enough of a track record for us to know that isn't the case.

most of the complaints I have seen is they should have been able to get more for Lawrey than they did. Yet I don't see how that claim is valid if all we got was Marcum? You would have to assume DM targeted Marcum and was willing to give up anything Toronto asked for to get him or DM is a complete idiot who didn't even bother to find out what else he could have got if you think we could have got more in return.

So my point remains are we better off with Marum or a prospect whose best asset would be to be a duplicate of what we already have plenty of? I think we are better off today than we were yesterday.