Brewers acquire Shaun Marcum for Brett Lawrie 1 for 1; 3/24/12 -- Jayson Stark article

[LouisEly]

TooLiveBrew]My comparison isn't between Marcum & Lawrie, it's between Marcum & other possible SP trade targets.

Yes, but from that list of other possible SP trade targets you have to subtract those who have no-trade clauses to Milwaukee, which is no small number. Once you do that, Marcum might very well be the best or at least one of the five best pitchers on the "OK to Trade to Milwaukee" list.

 

3. Has an average fastball under 88 mph in his career.

 

Greg Maddux and his stats from age 29-36 says "hello".

 

We are very very thin on hitting prospects especially AA or above.

 

The Brewers also have two of the top 15 picks in the June draft this year. Lawrie was #16 overall. The lack of hitting prospects can change quickly.

[monty57]

Assuming Fielder isn't traded, the Brewers will essentially retain the entire offense that scored the 4th most runs in the NL last year. With Marcum, we now have two legitimate #1 starters, with Wolf showing in the second half last season that he's at least a solid #3. We will probably add another arm to fit in as our #4 and Narveson's a competent #5. Throw in a bullpen with a lot of live, young arms, and I think that saying we couldn't win more than 85 games in 2011 is a little pessimistic. I think this trade definitely makes us contenders for the NL Central in 2011 (remember, this isn't a tough division). What Weeks is currently doing at the MLB level is probably what we could hope Lawrie may one day be capable of, so if we do sign Weeks to an extension, then Lawrie was expendable, as we're locked up at all positions except 1B for years. If Marcum will indeed sign an extension (which IMHO should be done immediately if he's agreeable), then this is a great move, and not simply a move Melvin is making to save his job.

 

I was worried about 2011, and this move wasn't something that ever came close to being on my radar. Now that we've been able to add a serious upgrade to our team without having a negative effect on us offensively, then I am optimistic about this season. That said, the biggest negative I see is that we will probably not get much return for Fielder, as he will probably be dealt at the deadline (if we're out of it), or let go for draft picks. If we get a playoff bid, I'm fine with getting the draft picks. If not, then I will be sad to see us only get the picks for him.

 

Interestingly enough, this move does give Melvin some leverage in the Fielder situations, as teams now know that we don't have to trade him. Melvin can honestly say that we can hold onto Fielder and go for it in 2011. If another team wants to add Fielder to their 2011 roster, the price tag just went up significantly.

[endaround]

Fielder hit .272/.366/.473 as a 20 year old when that really meant something in Huntsville. Lawrie hit .285/.346/.451. Again if Lawrie can remain at 2B that's great. But if he can't its good but not elite.

[Invader3K]

Again if Lawrie can remain at 2B that's great. But if he can't its good but not elite.

That's been one of my main points, endaround. It's been looking more and more that Lawrie won't stick at 2B. He'd inevitably probably move to the outfield, or possibly be converted to a corner infielder (I admit to not knowing where his defensive skill set would work better). We can find + bat/- glove guys to play those positions. We haven't been able to find high quality starting pitchers.

We had to give up something to get a guy. The return for Marcum was much less pricey than what Greinke would have inevitably taken. We weren't going to get a pitcher like this for Carlos Gomez and Manny Parra.

 

[NievesNoNO]

HiAndTight[/b]]

kramnoj[/b]]I don't neccessarily see this as Melvin trying to save himself. I'd be fairly surprised if this didn't have Attanasio's approval (at the very least a heads-up before it went through). Attanasio wants the Brewers to win right now every bit as much as Mevlin does, and this move improves the chance of that happening in the immediate future.

I do. I don't think this is a move a guy makes in our current situation if he's confident he's going to be around for the long term. I think what's really best for the Brewers is to take a few years off from trying to add impact pitchers and settling for soft tossers(though Marcum's certainly a legit pitcher), let our prospects catch up, and then when we've clear the salaries of some of these guys(or hell, re-sign a couple of them) then be a bit more aggressive.

 

Aggression when it's going to lead to the upside of 85 wins isn't really doing it for me.

I'm not sure waiting is what's best for the Brewers. Sometimes I think there's this fictional place in our heads where we think the perfect storm exists where all our prospects pan out and arrive within a year or two of each other. Everyone plays at a high level and the majority of our players are signed cheaply so we can be aggressive with available free agents. I'm not saying that can't happen (Rays), but I think the odds of it coming together like that are not all that great.

 

I don't think Doug is trying to save himself. He'd have a fairly nice line of teams interested if he was available. I don't think the guy can win in some people's eyes. He's criticized for not being able to acquire pitching and then when he acquires a solid youngish starter he's seen as desperate to save his job. People say he's the same old Doug Melvin who doesn't learn from his mistakes and doesn't take chances on trading for pitching when it's available, but then when he does make a move many are trying to figure out who he should've got instead!

 

I will agree that Marcum make us better, but not championship worthy, so I do understand what your saying. I'm just hoping Doug's not finished this off-season.

 

 

 

[brewmann04]

I think this will now make it easier for Melvin to move Prince now he can ask for top Minor League prospects instead of major league players.

[Patrick425]

We always hear this from people when a prospect is mentioned in a trade. "Well, you know teams overvalue their own prospects." Great, they probably do, but you know all those superstars in baseball? They come from teams farm systems. Lawrie IS on the same level of Weeks or Prince...at least IMO, and what he's done moving up to AA as a 20 year old while Weeks was still in college(and performing exceptionally well I grant you) should cement that.

And we'll see where Lawrie cracks the rankings this year, but I suspect he'll be squarely in the top 10 of all prospects.

Perhaps Lawrie will be in the top 10 this year, but he's not one of those "can't miss" prospects. I'm not saying the "can't miss" label is always correct, but from a trading chip standpoint it doesn't hurt. Fielder and Weeks were basically in the same class as Strasburg. Most fans on other teams knew who they were when they were in the minors and their MLB debut was highly anticipated. Lawrie is just not in that same class.

 

You have to give to get and Lawrie was a fair price to pay for another team's #1 pitcher, even if he will probably be #2 on our staff.

 

 

[bigredrobbo]

What? I thought for sure we'd trade Wes Obermueller straight up for Roy Halladay! Okay, maybe a slight exaggeration of how we overvalue our guys and undervalue theirs, but, c'mon...

 

I love this trade - of all the pitchers I thought we had a chance of getting, Marcum would have topped that pile. He's a better (and cheaper) pitcher than Pavano, who is now being touted as the jewel of the remaining free agent market not called Cliff Lee. I've watched him a lot over the last few years thanks to Fantasy Baseball and he doesn't get shelled much in the toughest division in baseball. Doesn't walk many, and strikes out a surprising number. Being a flyball pitcher is really only a huge issue if you always pitch to contact - he misses bats a lot for the velocity he throws.

 

I'd rather have a guy throwing 89mph that misses bats than one that has his 97mph efforts come back over his head twice as fast on their way to the seats.

 

Lawrie is raw and exciting, but untested. As others have said, if Weeks signs an extension, Lawrie has nowhere to go, unless we plan to move him AGAIN. Maybe Toronto plan to move him back to catcher.

 

He's not Jarrod Washburn or Kevin Millwood, for god's sake! This guy is easily the 1a of our staff if Yo's #1.

 

Yes he had TJ surgery 2 years ago. He was excellent in the year before the surgery (3.39 ERA, 1.16 WHIP) and in the 195 innings he pitched last year (3.64, 1.15), so I'm not sure that's really a valid worry.

 

I never understand the need to always WIN a trade. Toronto fans for the most part are gutted at losing him - that tells us more than Brewer fans bemoaning that we didn't get a big enough "name" for our can't miss prospect. Who cares if Lawrie turns out to be great, if Marcum ALSO turns out to be great? We need pitching. Period. There isn't much, certainly not that we would get for just one chip, so I think this deal is really a win/win for both us and Toronto.

[trwi7]

I never understand the need to always WIN a trade.

Funny, I don't understand why we always need to win now. Especially when we almost always fail miserably at it.

 

[Bombers]

I think this will now make it easier for Melvin to move Prince now he can ask for top Minor League prospects instead of major league players.

That's a great point. I also think that when we trade fielder, the headline part will be a pitching prospect and a hitting prospect in return. What if Fielder is traded for a top minor league pitcher and a top hitting prospect? At that point you trade Fielder and Lawrie for Marcum, a guy comparable to Lawrie and a top pitching prospect. So does that make this trade better? I think so.

 

[davemakovec]

Looking at it, other than velocity and strike-out numbers, are there any categories in which this guy is NOT better than Gallardo? If we're talking about Gallardo as our ace, we just picked up a second ace in exchange for a blocked prospect at least two years from the majors.

 

I like this trade a lot. All we need is one of those starters at AA to make the jump and we're in business. Mark Rogers, Jeremy Jeffress, I'm looking at you.

 

In the alternative, we could get another pitcher from outside the organization.

 

I really like this move.

[Invader3K]

Funny, I don't understand why we always need to win now. Especially when we almost always fail miserably at it.

Wow, that's quite an attitude to take. Maybe we can go back to being like the Pirates and always rebuilding towards nothing.

[TheCrew]

Melvin can't win with some people. He was bashed for not moving Hardy when his value was at his peak - same for Gamel, Hart and others. He was also bashed for not acquiring quality starting pitching as well.

 

Then he goes and trades a prospect whose value is at it's peak for a legit #1 pitcher who has put up very respectable numbers in baseballs toughest division - and he still gets bashed by some.

 

I think some people need to look at the numbers of some of the other top pitchers in the AL east - Marcum doesn't have the name recognition of a Sabathia or Beckett, but his numbers are comparable.

[greeg35]

I think trwi7's point is not that we should constantly be rebuilding; but that we need to be (more) strategic in reload/going for it. Is it coincidence that we are "going for it" while Melvin's job may be on the line? I like this trade depending on how Weeks situation shakes out; but I didn't like how he "went for it" last year wasting money on "proven veteran pitching" considering we were pretty far from being legit contenders.

Melvin can't win with some people.

That's because different people are "bashing" him for different reasons. If we win they all go away http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[bjkrautk]

I will love this trade if these three things happen:

1) We sign Weeks to an extension

2) We sign Marcum to an extension

3) Lawrie turns out to be LaPorta or worse

I'll add in one more:

4) Marcum pitches well for the Brewers in 2011-2012 (60+ starts, ERA under 4, 13-18 wins/year, add your stats of choice here)

 

1 & 4 are the most important to me. The one thing that stands out as a question mark for me is Marcum's high BB/9. For a pitcher who relies on hitting the corners and getting guys to swing at pitches outside the zone, I'm always concerned about them getting hammered should they start to lose command. In his last two seasons before TJ surgery, Marcum averaged about 2.87 BB/9 (higher than the career rates for guys like Steve Woodard and David Bush, for what it's worth); last year he was down to 1.98. Granted, the walks didn't seem to hurt him that much in previous years, but I don't know how repeatable his 2010 season will turn out to be. Much like the Sabathia trade worked because of how well he performed, Marcum pitching like a #2 starter would make this deal a decent one.

 

I don't think that the difference between Weeks and Lawrie is likely to be significant (although Lawrie's 20-yr old season in AA compares reasonably well with Weeks' 21-yr old season in AA), and Weeks' plate discipline and dedication to improving his defense are characteristics which make him a good fit in Milwaukee (particularly given the team's need for a leadoff hitter). Extending Rickie makes too much sense for it not to happen.

 

On the whole, I'm okay with the deal as long as one of those 4 things take place, but I'm hoping for 2-3 of them.

[greeg35]

I agree with that bjkrautk, I would also add: we win the world series. That will make it all better http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[jeffy]

I think it's also true that fans generally overvalue prospects on their own teams.

 

I think it depends on the type of fan. The average fan does not, I think, follow these prospects like many here do and so probably undervalues them.

 

So as a more typical fan, myself (in that I pretty much do not pay attention to the minor league prospects) I see they got apparently a #1 pitcher from the toughest division in baseball for someone I never heard of, who may amount to nothing. The tiny bit I read about him implies he is yet another bat with poor defense, a player type that the Brewers have had an over supply of for years.

 

There was a lot of complaining when LaPorta was traded, too. But since then (just based on comments here, I've not followed his career myself) it does not seem like he has amounted to much.

 

There is also the possibility that they end up keep Prince and get a shot at picking two new prospects to restock.

[kramnoj]

I think what's really best for the Brewers is to take a few years off from trying to add impact pitchers and settling for soft tossers(though Marcum's certainly a legit pitcher), let our prospects catch up, and then when we've clear the salaries of some of these guys(or hell, re-sign a couple of them) then be a bit more aggressive.

 

The Brewers would be in a better position prospect wise if they had traded Sheets in 2008 and not traded for CC.

 

The Brewers would be better prospect wise if they just traded anybody worth of value and waited to build, but then many fans that care for this team would find other things to do with their time and money. They could follow the Twins model of stinking for 8 years, building up draft picks along the way, and finally they are able to put together a series of successful teams. That could definitely work. It just wouldn't be much fun for Brewers fans while it happened. And for a guy as competitive as our owner is, he doesn't want that to happen.

[brewers4eric]

I was as surprised by the trade as I was by the 14 pages of comments that were on the forum when I logged in. In reflecting on the trade, my only thought is to run Marcum out to the mound and see what he can do. I liked the potential that Lawrie possessed, but it seems like the Brewers have had the market cornered on "all hit no field" position players for some time and we don't have a whole lot of success to show for it. With all of the focus on Fielder, this should be a very interesting offseason.

 

Go Brewers

[RobDeer 45]

I know this is getting a bit off but the Brewers have been in a much better place with Melvin then we were in for a long time. I know people want to give credit to many other areas but at least we now have a team that has a legit chance every year to compete. We didn't before!

 

Let's not call for his head, he's been willing to adjust and change his methods of putting a team together. I know most fans love power hitters but bad pitching and bad defense and a lot of home runs doesn't win championships. So we are going to have to give up some of our bats to get good defense and look at some of our positions to be filled by good defense and average bats.

 

I think DM is going in the right direction with this move and I've said this so many times, the only way for us to compete consistently is through young pitching. We finally have a few quality pitchers at the major league level. We have a lot of great youth in our pen and we have some legit SP prospects getting close to being ready. If we can add another young guy or two with Prince all the sudden we could have a pretty good staff for years to come. And guess what, pitchers can fetch prospects, so we can always trade to get a guy like Lawrie for a postion we need down the road. It's much easier to deal pitchers then postion players, remember that!

 

Good work DM, I love where you are taking this team!

[HiAndTight]

Perhaps Lawrie will be in the top 10 this year, but he's not one of those "can't miss" prospects. I'm not saying the "can't miss" label is always correct, but from a trading chip standpoint it doesn't hurt. Fielder and Weeks were basically in the same class as Strasburg. Most fans on other teams knew who they were when they were in the minors and their MLB debut was highly anticipated. Lawrie is just not in that same class.

 

You have to give to get and Lawrie was a fair price to pay for another team's #1 pitcher, even if he will probably be #2 on our staff.

 

I think that's a gross exaggeration. Prince and Weeks were both certainly very highly regarded prospects, but I think they were closer to Lawrie(when all is said and done in reference to their prospect status) than they were to Strasburg.

[HiAndTight]

Melvin can't win with some people. He was bashed for not moving Hardy when his value was at his peak - same for Gamel, Hart and others. He was also bashed for not acquiring quality starting pitching as well.

 

Then he goes and trades a prospect whose value is at it's peak for a legit #1 pitcher who has put up very respectable numbers in baseballs toughest division - and he still gets bashed by some.

 

I think some people need to look at the numbers of some of the other top pitchers in the AL east - Marcum doesn't have the name recognition of a Sabathia or Beckett, but his numbers are comparable.

I think I'm one of the few people who is adamantly against that, and I've been a HUGE Melvin defender, so that comment just blindly thrown out there.

 

I'm also curious how you come to the conclusion that Lawrie's value is at it's "Peak"? For a guy who was compared to Rogers Hornsby(which I'm not arguing he's going to be, just that there are those out there who are more than just a little high on him) I find it stunning we can say at 20 years old, "yup, this is his peak value."

 

How about trading FOR a pitcher at his peak? Does that not come into play? Guy had TJ two years ago, hasn't exactly been a work horse and throws 87. Lets take a tick or two off that fastball and see what he does. I seem to recall Dave Bush putting up a very good season in Toronto....and again, NOT saying he's Dave Bush, clearly better, but I see people calling him an ace, and I think that's a bit premature.

[RobDeer 45]

He's not a true ace but if he could be "our" ace, or close to it, what does that say about how desperate we are for pitching?

[HiAndTight]

And when the prospects aren't up until 2013 you suddenly have a one year window at best before you move Gallardo and Braun.

So Lawrie wasn't going to make it up for another 3 years? He'll be at AAA this year.

Gamel? Jeffress? Rogers? Rivas, Heckathorn, Peralta, Scarpetta? We're going to lose a whole lot of those guys to the rule 5 if they can't make it here in 3 years. Odorrizi's the one big prospect who may not make it until then, and even that's taking a bit of a negative perspective since it's entirely likely, given health, he sees AA this year.

 

 

What's more, if we're at the place where we just blindly concede to letting every single player go, not just the Boras players who've maintained all along they were going to go to Free Agency, but any and every player on our team such as Braun and Yo, two guys who've already signed below market deals to stay here, then I guess we're kinda dead anyway.

[Boy Jeenius]

I do not understand those who do not like the trade. I was talking to my son after the Packer game yesterday and told him that with the meetings starting, he better be prepared for what the cost will be for starting pitching. It was going to be at least one of these - Hart, McGehee, Weeks, Lawrie, LuCroy, Rogers, Odorizzi, Lo Cain or even Braun. The price tag is expensive plain and simple. The answer is plain and simple. Pay the price or get out of the business. Those who expect to getting a QUALITY starter for a couple of mid range prospects with a bench player thrown in are delusional.