Brewers acquire Shaun Marcum for Brett Lawrie 1 for 1; 3/24/12 -- Jayson Stark article

[Oldcity]

Marcum is at worst a very close second to Yo. Sounds like he's open to an extension.

 

Who cares how hard he throws if he gets guys out? He still gets swings and misses, and he has a nice walk rate too.

 

Gallardo-Marcum-Wolf isn't great, but I'd say it's pretty good. If they can add one more pitcher above a 4-5 type, I like the staff a lot.

[Mass Haas]

Toronto Sun
Lawrie is a pugnacious player, who plays like a hockey puck. For example, in 2009 he and fellow Canadian Chris Dennis of Amherstburg got into a pre-game scrap around the batting cage at class-A Wisconsin.

I don't consider this an issue, but the Brewers managed to keep that quiet, denying he was suspended by the organization (even if informally) when we had reason to believe it was something like this. Don't make a deal of it -- two 19-year-old Canucks got in a scrap, big surprise...

Here's our Transaction Rumor thread from June when this discussion came up. Interesting to go back and review our comments. Would folks feel better if it were Brett Cecil today one-for-one? Loved Marcum in June, very pleased with this trade today as a fair gamble on both sides.

Lawrie's north-of-the-borderness made Brett more valuable to the Jays than any other organization. They have a real chance to break through the Yankee-Red Sox barrier within the next two years, and stimulating their fan base and future ticket sales with Lawrie is something Doug and Gord, in effect, took advantage of. Not great advantage of as in a (R.J.) swindle, but it was a factor to be sure.

Fair trade, as should be suggested by the approximate 50-50 discussion going on here.

[RockCoCougars]

O.K., I'm coming way out of right field here, but I couldn't help but notice that Marcum is from Kansas City. Interesting. Maybe it's the opposite of the Jays using Lawrie as a piece for Greinke, and the Brewers got Marcum for the Royals. Would Marcum, Jeffress, Parra get the job done? Unforunately, I'm sure it's wishful thinking on my part. If Marcum is kept, I'm OK with it only with the cavaet that Rickie is reupped.

[Mass Haas]

Interesting blog post from Mike Wilner, who covers the Jays -- read it in full here --

 

He fielded his position like a champ - he’s the rare pitcher who is actually a fifth infielder and the Jays will miss that every fifth day, for sure. And he took on a position of leadership with the young rotation from day one of Spring Training.

I’ll tell you this - they are absolutely going to love Shaun Marcum in Milwaukee. He’ll pitch great, with that fearless attitude and incredible change-up, he’ll likely win a Gold Glove or three in the National League, and he immediately becomes one of the league’s best-hitting pitchers - right there with his new teammate, Yovani Gallardo.

[Tedaldtada]

Everyone rejoice! The Eric Farris era will start in 2012!!

Just kidding, but seriously, everyone rejoice! Scooter Gennett is...http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif

[Invader3K]

Like it or not, Lawrie was expendable to the organization. It was sounding more and more like he was not going to stick at second base. At that point, his value to the Brewers was diminished.

 

We're getting a pitcher better than many thought we might get for Prince Fielder, and gave up a guy who is still well away from the majors. I think some fans are miffed that they can't criticize Melvin's lack of pitching moves anymore.

[craigharmann]

I woke up at 3:30, saw this and thought I was still dreaming. I like the trade. They're talking with Weeks about an extension, and hopefully that can be done, so that shouldn't be a need for a while. Since there really wasn't a position for Lawrie, and the need for pitching, you take the deal. Now either another trade, sign Webb or hope that one of the younger guys has a lights out spring training and takes a spot in the rotation.

[clancyphile]

Not a bad deal, if Weeks and Marcum are extended. Marcun, I'd hope the Crew can get a 5-year deal done. Weeks seems to be the future at second.

 

My big worry? Shortstop. Escobar is looking like he is a black hole offensively at the position. The other options at shot are Luis Cruz (.588 OPS in limited duty) and Craig Counsell (39 and posting a .640 OPS).

 

Lawrie's gonna be missed, but the Brewers may have lined up a top-flight starter in return. Looks like a good deal, either with the comp picks after 2012, or if Marcum extends.

[Funketown]

To extend Marcum?

 

I think you're talking something more like $60 over four.

I think that's quite high for Marcum. I wouldn't sign him for 4/60 on the FA market. With two years of arb left, this is the absolute max I'd give him right now:

 

09: $7MM

10: $11MM

11: $14MM

12: $14MM

[BrewCrewForever]

It is nice and I always prefer guys who have plus fastballs, but it doesn't matter how hard you throw. You have to locate and have good movement. By all accounts Marcum has both of those things going for him.

[EbbaStClaire]

It seems like there are a lot of good things about this trade.

 

1. Marcum is a good pitcher.

2. The Brewers did not have to give up a pitcher to get Marcum.

3. Since pitching is the premium position, he could (assuming a good year) be turned for a good hitter or prospects. 4. If the Brewers have an excess of pitching in the future they will be able to turn them into position players who can hit and field.

5. The Brewers have an excess of players who can hit but can't field.

6. The Brewers have one less player with an attitude even though he is only 21 years old and that could change.

7. There is more flexibility with a Fielder trade although with the addition of one more pitcher I would keep him this year.

[jjfanec]

"the price of No. 3 starter is very high if a team has to give up its No. 1 prospect (lawrie) for one (marcum). somewhere, pavano is smiling"

 

http://twitter.com/SI_Jon...status/11633938548133888

 

The Brewers probably gave up a bit much, but might just be the going rate.

If Marcum is our number 3 starter going into the season I will be pretty excited http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif Calling Marcum a number 3 when all his numbers - except his fastball velocity - put him up there with some big names seems like quite the under sell. The Jays have a good rotation and their fans said he was their number 1

[monty57]

I like the move. If Rickie's extended, all of our position players except Fielder will be signed for the next few years, and we have Gamel to take over when Fielder's gone. Therefore, Lawrie was a man without a position in Milwaukee. I think this move means that Fielder will not be traded this offseason, and I really think we have a shot at the division title in 2011. We will retain all of our top-ranked offense, and should have a much better rotation and a solid, young bullpen. I'd guess we'll pick up another #3/4 starter, which shouldn't be too expensive either as a FA or through trade.

If we can sign Marcum to a 4-year deal/extension, then I'm really happy about the deal. The above-posted tweet from Rosenthal that makes it sound like Marcum is looking for an extension and is happy to be going back to the Midwest is a good sign.

[ELCABALLO45]

I slept on in and I decided I am going to be excited for this trade. We just got a lot better for 2011.

[JohnBriggs12]

Like it or not, Lawrie was expendable to the organization. It was sounding more and more like he was not going to stick at second base. At that point, his value to the Brewers was diminished.

 

We're getting a pitcher better than many thought we might get for Prince Fielder, and gave up a guy who is still well away from the majors. I think some fans are miffed that they can't criticize Melvin's lack of pitching moves anymore.

I agree completely here.

 

The Brewers are now going into 2011 with 4 starters who all won at least 12 games last year, were all over .500, and all had WHIPs under 1.40 and they didn't have to give up Fielder or any other key guy on their roster. Furthermore, none of those guys appear to have had their peak seasons. I presume Melvin will fill the open spot with a veteran FA that will take a one year deal, like a Washburn, Capuano or Correia. That would make a roster that can compete in the division. They probably won't be favored, but on paper they should be right in the mix.

 

Losing Lawrie is a loss. But it's a lot easier finding bats in the draft than it is pitching, and they have an extra first rounder this year, and potentially 2 extra in 2012 by keeping Fielder around a full year. Besides by adding Marcum, they may have enough pitching stockpiling that they can deal that down the road for a bat.

[strawbossisevil]

Clancy, this deal has no impact on our team's Shortstop for next season as Lowrie wouldn't ever play Shortstop. It may be a concern, but this deal has nothing to do with that concern.

 

As far as Fielder is concerned, I think it depends if we are able to extend Marcum and Weeks. One of the reasons made why the Brewers made the trade for Marcum was his sign-ability. I think the Brewers might extend him a year or two beyond his arbitration years. Having both Gallardo and Marcum locked down long term would make going for it all this season less needful, and would free us to trade Fielder for the best players available, hopefully a solid #3 pitcher along with a high potential position prospect in the lower levels of the minors.

 

Here is how I want the Brewers to operate the rest of the offseason:

 

1) Extend both Weeks and Marcum

2) Trade Fielder for solid #3 pitcher (pre-arby with ERA around 4.00, also a low level position prospect with very high ceiling - top prospect, but two years away)

3) Sign Derrick Lee to a 1-2 year deal

4) Trade either Gamel (less likely) or McGehee (more likely) along with Parra for low level high ceiling 1b prospect (to replace Derrick Lee in a year or two) and a solid #4 type pitcher, 4.25 ERA type (pre-arby).

5) Sign Russell Martin to split time with Lucroy - also back up 1b and 3b

 

Pitching Staff for 2011:

 

SP1: Gallardo

SP2: Marcum

SP3: Fielder Trade

SP4: Wolf

SP5: McGehee Trade

AAA: Rogers (first one called up when there is an injury)

AAA: Butler

 

CL: Axford

SU: Braddock

SU: Hawkins

MR: Loe

LH: Stetter

LR: Capuano

LR: Naverson

AAA: Jeffress (first one called up when there is an injury)

AAA: McClendon

AAA: Merklinger

 

Postion Players:

 

C: Lucroy/Martin/Kottaras

1B: Lee/Martin

2B: Weeks

SS: Escobar/Counsell

3B: Gamel/Martin

LF: Braun/Boggs

CF: Cain/Dickerson or Gomez

RF: Hart/Boggs

[greeg35]

I will love this trade if these three things happen:

1) We sign Weeks to an extension

2) We sign Marcum to an extension

3) Lawrie turns out to be LaPorta or worse

I will like this trade if two out of the three things above happen

I will not like this trade if one out of the three things above happen

I will HATE this trade if none of the three things above happen

For this year, Marcum becomes a borderline #1 for us. He may be better than Gallardo (is probably as good) and sounds like a great clubhouse guy to boot. This definitely makes our team better for the next two years. After that, it depends on the big 3 listed above.

[HiAndTight]

I don't neccessarily see this as Melvin trying to save himself. I'd be fairly surprised if this didn't have Attanasio's approval (at the very least a heads-up before it went through). Attanasio wants the Brewers to win right now every bit as much as Mevlin does, and this move improves the chance of that happening in the immediate future.

I do. I don't think this is a move a guy makes in our current situation if he's confident he's going to be around for the long term. I think what's really best for the Brewers is to take a few years off from trying to add impact pitchers and settling for soft tossers(though Marcum's certainly a legit pitcher), let our prospects catch up, and then when we've clear the salaries of some of these guys(or hell, re-sign a couple of them) then be a bit more aggressive.

 

Aggression when it's going to lead to the upside of 85 wins isn't really doing it for me.

[Invader3K]

Aggression when it's going to lead to the upside of 85 wins isn't really doing it for me.

 

85 wins could be enough to win this division or possibly the wild card, though.

 

We have to remember that Melvin probably isn't done making moves, though.

[ELCABALLO45]

Aggression when it's going to lead to the upside of 85 wins isn't really doing it for me.

 

85 wins could be enough to win this division or possibly the wild card, though.

 

We have to remember that Melvin probably isn't done making moves, though.

85 wins will not be enough to win the WC. But I do agree that it could win the division.

 

I think we also got to remember we will have a full year of Axford closing as well, if you remember Hoffman cost the Brewers like 4 or 5 losses in April alone last year.

[HiAndTight]

Aggression when it's going to lead to the upside of 85 wins isn't really doing it for me.

 

85 wins could be enough to win this division or possibly the wild card, though.

 

We have to remember that Melvin probably isn't done making moves, though.

My point is I see that as our best case scenario. An making the playoffs is great, but if you're an 85 win team going in, you're likely going to be a fart in the wind and forgotten about awfully quick as you go 3 and done, or 3 and 1.

 

More likely we're still a team in the low 80's and that's if Marcum stays healthy and things go right.

[endaround]

And when the prospects aren't up until 2013 you suddenly have a one year window at best before you move Gallardo and Braun.

[strawbossisevil]

Playoffs are a crap shoot. Once you have a seat at the final table, anything can happen. If that weren't the case, the Yankees would have been World Champions just about every year for the past decade.

And adding on to that, the impact of a top of the rotation pitcher is greater in the playoffs. Adding a solid #2 therefore could have a huge impact on how things go for us were we to make the playoffs.

[Patrick425]

Ok, woke up this morning, read the paper and saw this trade for the first time. At first I thought it was the PTBNL for Villaneueva and I couldn't believe it. Then I realized it was a separate trade involving Lawrie and I'm still pretty happy about it. Then I logged on to BF.net and saw there was already a 12 page thread on this deal. I actually took the time to read just about every post. My favorite one and the one that describes how I feel the most is probably this one from RobDeer45:

I really like the deal. I really hope that we are able to sign Weeks and then this makes the deal even better for us.

Couple things, there are too many people on here that have unrealistic ideas in their heads. Greinke will take Lawrie and probably two other guys. We can't afford to dish out our pitching prospects people!! That has been our biggest weak spot, young pitching from the system. We are finally bridging the gap between our your pitchers and the major leagues and if we trade some of them now it will put us in the hole for years to come.

We are a medium/small market team in a location that it is not ideal for many FA's. That means the only way to get good pitching is to develop it or acquire younger guys through trade. Pitching is at an extremely high price right now after the steroid era so to get you have to GIVE!! We aren't giving the house, we aren't killing our future. We have now upgraded our starters and that has to be our main priority. Our staff was terrible the last two years and we aren't going anywhere with them. Changes had to be made and changes aren't free.

Go Crew!

As the saying goes, you don't know what you don't know. Some people are making all sorts of assumptions about what pitchers they would rather have or that they could have gotten more for Lawrie, etc. How do you know?

Melvin had to get starting pitching. This deal came up and he could either pass it up in hopes of getting something better down the road or take it. If he passed it up and the "better" deal never came, now he would be left to overpaying for a FA like Pavano, which he still may do (I really, really hope not).

Someone also posted about how fans from one team always seem to undervalue the prospects of another team. I think it's also true that fans generally overvalue prospects on their own teams. Lawrie is a good prospect, but not a "get a #1 pitcher in return" type prospect. If this was 6 or 7 years ago and it was Weeks or Fielder for Marcum, I would have been more concerned. Fielder and Weeks were consistantly in the top 10 (even top 5) listed prospects on many different lists. Lawrie is good, but he's not that type of prospect.

Lastly, the people breaking down and analyzing Marcum's mechanics based on one still photo should quit their day jobs and see if they can get a job as a scout or pitching coach on some team.

[HiAndTight]

 

 

 

Someone also posted about how fans from one team always seem to undervalue the prospects of another team. I think it's also true that fans generally overvalue prospects on their own teams. Lawrie is a good prospect, but not a "get a #1 pitcher in return" type prospect. If this was 6 or 7 years ago and it was Weeks or Fielder for Marcum, I would have been more concerned. Fielder and Weeks were consistantly in the top 10 (even top 5) listed prospects on many different lists. Lawrie is good, but he's not that type of prospect.

We always hear this from people when a prospect is mentioned in a trade. "Well, you know teams overvalue their own prospects." Great, they probably do, but you know all those superstars in baseball? They come from teams farm systems. Lawrie IS on the same level of Weeks or Prince...at least IMO, and what he's done moving up to AA as a 20 year old while Weeks was still in college(and performing exceptionally well I grant you) should cement that.

I get how valuable pitching is obviously, how difficult it is to acquire, but for a guy coming off TJ surgery, for a guy who doesn't throw hard meaning any loss in velocity could really kill him, I don't like this trade.

And we'll see where Lawrie cracks the rankings this year, but I suspect he'll be squarely in the top 10 of all prospects.

Obviously signing Weeks is probably pretty likely at this time....though you just gave them a bit more leverage IMO, but that's of little consequence to me as I think Lawrie's more of a 3rd basemen.

 

 

As a Brewers fan, I honestly hope this trade works out, but to me, as a Doug Melvin supporter, he took a bit hit IMO. And that's not an indictment on Marcum. He'll help us out a great deal in the next 2 years...if he stays healthy. Not as much as Lawrie would have helped us out in the next 6 years. And maybe I am overvaluing....but to me we just gave up a Ryan Braun type talent for 2 years of a guy coming off TJ who throws 87 MPH.