Tulowitzki signs 6 year/$119M extension through 2020

[danzig6767]

1)-Why? Maybe he gets less expensive as his body breaks down.

2)-The Rockies aren't getting a home town discount

3)-Only if salary inflation picks up again and you're paying a huge premium to save a little bit of money.

 

Tulo now has the highest average annual value of all short stops.

I agree on all three points. The Rockies IMO are taking on way to much long term risk in comparison to any potential savings that they'd gain if Tulo continued to stay both healthy and very productive.

 

If say Tulo only had a year or two left on his current contract, i could see the reason to be proactive and sign him long term, but that isn't the case. Colorado likely could have waited another year or two before offering a huge extension like this and odds are he'd have still taken the extension.

[Fatter than Joey]

The thing is there aren't that many players in the history of the game who can year in and year out produce at that level much less while playing the middle infield

 

I agree. I think Tulo is a pretty special player.

 

I'll put the over/under on the number of 5+ WAR seasons Tulo produces during the length of the contract at 5. What side of the line does your money fall on?

 

I think your number is fair, I would maybe got to 6, but not much higher -- In either case, if Tulo puts out five 5+ WAR seasons, he is likely to be worth his contract.

 

I just can't help but think of Sizemore after 08... I'm not saying just because Sizemore imploded that Tulo will do the same, just trying to illustrate why handing out and extension to someone with four years of control remaining is a risky proposition.

 

Sizemore is certainly a good illustration of the risk involved with long-term contracts, but it seems to me that your argument is a generic one against long-term deals in general. I certainly understand and definitely agree that the Rockies have assumed a lot of risk here, however there is also risk in waiting to act on extending Tulo as well.

 

Nomar was basically done after age 30.

 

Cal Ripken won a MVP at 30, Barry Larkin did at 31.

 

If say Tulo only had a year or two left on his current contract, i could see the reason to be proactive and sign him long term

 

If Tulo had only a year left on his contract, I would hope the Rockies would be pro-active to extend him http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif -- However, the Rockies would be then competing with every other team in MLB that desired a top defensive SS, capable of putting up a .900+ OPS. I can't imagine a scenario where the Rockies are able to go tit for tat with some of the big guns on the open market.

 

I would imagine that if Tulo had 1 or 2 more years on his contract, extension talks with him, probably would have been as fruitful as they have been for the Brewers and Prince Fielder.

 

Colorado likely could have waited another year or two before offering a huge extension like this and odds are he'd have still taken the extension.

 

What is going to happen in a year or two that is going to change a team's mind? -- Do you think he is going to quit being a top defender, or lose his ability to hit 25 HRs a season in the course of a season or two? -- According to projections, if he tacks on 2 more .900+ seasons, he is only going to get way more expensive and be more likely to be enticed by teams like Chicago, NY or Boston... I think Tulo is what he is at this point in his career -- much like Prince Fielder or Ryan Braun, and you either like it or you don't.

 

All that said, I do certainly agree that the Rockies are taking a huge risk, as would anyone offering this sort of contract -- I just think Tulo is one of the few players that it makes some sort of sense to offer it to.

[HiAndTight]

I wouldn't mind if the Brewers locked up Braun for longer before his current deal is up. But I am a mega Braun homer. To be he is the franchise and I hope to put him in the class of Yount one day as a lifetime HOF Brewer.

If Braun was a SS I might agree. As it is, he is a crappy defender in LF. No reason to sign a guy into his 30's unless he can pay good defense or you are an AL team.

 

I don't agree. Now if Braun worth what Tulo is.....or even close? Hell no, BUT, lets not ignore the fact that this is a guy who is on a career trajectory to have 3,000 hits and 400+ HR's with great rate stats.

 

Braun had a down year last year and look what he gave you? Personally, I love this move for the Rox and would love it for the Brewers. I'd see if Braun wanted 4 years and 48 million added on to what he's already getting paid. Only way we're keeping Braun is if we re-sign him long before his deals up.

 

Too much is made of his poor defense and I think the more.....informed fans out there, that is to say the small pct such as most on this board tend to go a liiiiiittle bit too far in undervaluing Braun. Probably to counter balance those who believe he's in the Evan Longoria, Tulo league, but all the same, 10+ years of .310/.375/.550 35/100 with good athletic ability on the bags is well worth it IMO.

 

He's not Prince offensively, but with guys like Gamel, Lawrie and others coming up, I think he's worth more than many on here do.

[HiAndTight]

All that said, I do certainly agree that the Rockies are taking a huge risk, as would anyone offering this sort of contract -- I just think Tulo is one of the few players that it makes some sort of sense to offer it to.

Agree with this 100 pct. People are arguing about people long term deals, but there are a few players in the league that are worth it. Eliminate every pitcher(obviously) and I'm guessing there will be a couple years in there in which he "only" hits for a .780 OPS, or he plays 80 games, but he's always going to provide great defense, and while it's a risk, I think he's about as good a risk as you can get across the league. Plus, teams like Colorado, like Milwaukee, and teams like those have to take a risk with special talents.

 

Evan Longoria, Hanley Ramirez, Miguel Cabrera, Joe Mauer, Ryan Braun and a couple others with Tulo.

 

If you can solidify the SS position for 10 years with a guy who should win multiple GG's while putting up big power numbers...that seems like as good of a risk as you can get, especially in MLB where guys like friggin Juan Uribe get 7 million per, Edgar Renteria gets 10 million per and Carlos Lee gets almost 20.

 

I think if this deal works out like the Helton deal, the Rox are in pretty good shape.