Tulowitzki signs 6 year/$119M extension through 2020

[PrinceEatMeat]

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=5864835

 

 

I wonder if this will lead Ryan Braun to shoot for the same kind of deal soon?

[BrewCrewForever]

I wouldn't mind if the Brewers locked up Braun for longer before his current deal is up. But I am a mega Braun homer. To be he is the franchise and I hope to put him in the class of Yount one day as a lifetime HOF Brewer.

[sveumrules]

Seems almost as necessary as the Howard extension. Good thing Tulo has no injury history to speak of.

[logan82]

I wouldn't mind if the Brewers locked up Braun for longer before his current deal is up. But I am a mega Braun homer. To be he is the franchise and I hope to put him in the class of Yount one day as a lifetime HOF Brewer.

If Braun was a SS I might agree. As it is, he is a crappy defender in LF. No reason to sign a guy into his 30's unless he can pay good defense or you are an AL team.

 

 

[Invader3K]

I wouldn't mind if the Brewers locked up Braun for longer before his current deal is up. But I am a mega Braun homer. To be he is the franchise and I hope to put him in the class of Yount one day as a lifetime HOF Brewer.

I could see the Brewers visiting something like this in a couple years. As it is, they have Braun under control for five more years, basically all of what would be a ballplayer's expected "prime years." No reason for the club to rush into another extension with him.

[BrewCrewForever]

I wouldn't mind if the Brewers locked up Braun for longer before his current deal is up. But I am a mega Braun homer. To be he is the franchise and I hope to put him in the class of Yount one day as a lifetime HOF Brewer.

I could see the Brewers visiting something like this in a couple years. As it is, they have Braun under control for five more years, basically all of what would be a ballplayer's expected "prime years." No reason for the club to rush into another extension with him.

Yeah, I don't think they would do it soon, but maybe 2014 or during the last year 2015. Not a 10 year deal, but maybe 3 to 5 years.

[TooLiveBrew]

I don't think Braun would do that. The whole point of him doing it the first time was setting up financial stability, so now that he has that he has every reason to just hold out for that one last massive FA contract. Just my hunch, though.

[JimH5]

Strange. After they got burned on the longterm Helton deal, and with Mike Hampton in their history, I don't know why they feel the need to go for such a long deal.

[joepepsi]

Tulo is signed for the next 3 years, plus a club option in 2014. He'll be 34 in 2020. It's just plain dumb to do this in 2010.

[Principessa21]

He's worth the money, but 10/158 is a big risk for a smaller market team.

[chadomac]

Unfortunately, I agree that Braun will leave when his contract is up - if not sooner. I don't believe there is anything to the rumors of trading him this offseason (I think that came from Witrado just making things up), but I could see him wanting out of Milwaukee early if we stink another year or two. And almost all the time... the player gets what they want.

 

Regarding Tulo... I don't see why you'd offer anyone this long of a contract with the way money is guarenteed in MLB. Glad it's not us.

[Ennder]

This contract has disaster written all over it imo.

[Funketown]

There's no way Tulo would have gotten this on the FA market. That's an epicly scary deal to give to anybody.

[Invader3K]

There's a story out there now saying that the Rockies were basically scared of losing Gonzalez (Boras client) and Tulowitzki in back to back seasons. Probably not the bets rationale for a long term contract, I'd think.

[Fatter than Joey]

Seems almost as necessary as the Howard extension.

 

Tulowitzki is a power-hitting, gold-glove SS, and Howard is not -- they are not really fair players to compare.

 

Good thing Tulo has no injury history to speak of.

 

Tulo's injury history is a bit fluky -- In 2008, he suffered a quad tear. Later than year he cut his hand with a broken bat -- Last year he missed six weeks getting plunked on the wrist. Assuming that his quad is properly healed, I don't know why you would hold the other 2 injuries against him.

 

There's no way Tulo would have gotten this on the FA market.

 

From 2007-2010, Tulo has been a top 10 player in both offensive and defensive WAR -- He'd get paid by someone in a major fashion...

 

Here is how his salary breaks down....

 

2011 -- 5.5M

2012 -- 8.25M

2013 -- 10M

2014 -- 16M

2015 -- 20M

2016 -- 20M

2017 -- 20M

2018 -- 20M

2019 -- 20M

2020 -- 14M

 

If Tulo hit the FA market today, He may not get 20M, but he'd certainly get 10M -- I think we can all agree to that -- I think he'd get pretty close to the 16M on today's market. He probably wouldn't get 20M, however, who knows where the market will be in 2015. There is bound to be some inflation by then, and I think that is what the Rockies are betting on.

 

He's worth the money, but 10/158 is a big risk for a smaller market team.

 

There is risk involved for the Rockies concerning Tulo regardless of the path they choose. Either they sign him to a mega-extension, or they wait a couple of years, and risk losing him to another team.

 

There aren't a lot of players you sign to this sort of deal, but I suppose a power-hitting, superb fielding SS, would be one of those types of players. Corner OFs and 1bs, can be replaced, good hitting SS's are quite a bit harder.

 

I guess I see this deal as a fair and reasonable deal for both parties. The Rockies have made a boatload of value off of Tulo up to this point, and will easily do so for the next 3-4 years. If the economy changes directions at all, it wouldn't be hard for Tulo to pay for himself in his 20M years as well.

 

All that said, I certainly can understand people being scared of this sort of deal.

[joepepsi]

Tulo at Coors Field: .312/.383/.544

Tulow on the road: .269/.342/.448

 

At home he's not quite ARod. On the road he's Jimmy Rollins.

[TooLiveBrew]

And he's arguably the best defensive SS in the game no matter where he plays. I'd think that Jimmy Rollins in his prime would have been worth roughly $20M AAV, and I think Tulo will be as well. However, one potential problem with this contract is that he'll be getting paid $20M for his age 30-34 seasons. That could come back to haunt Colorado big-time.

 

If the Rockies can put together some serious contending teams in the next 5 or so seasons, and find a way to sell high-ish on Tulo to a giant market team before he's 32 or so, I'd have to imagine that would basically be the best-case scenario with this deal.

[sveumrules]

I wasn't trying to compare the two as players at all just the unnecessary nature of the extensions they received.

 

As for the injuries, a couple have been fluky but so were quite a few of Sheets injuries. Fluke injuries do not preclude future injuries.

 

I understand the argument that if Tulo continues to produce as he has in the past that his potential cost in FA would far exceed what the Rockies just gave him, but with that potential FA date 4 seasons away sooooo much can happen to change the dynamic of the situation. If I'm gonna spend 100 million plus I want as much data as possible available so I don't have to rely on flimsy assumptions.

 

Look at Sizemore. He put up four consecutive seasons of 5+ fWAR at a premium defensive position from 2005-2008, at which point he had 3 years and an option left on his deal just like pre-extension Tulo. Say the Indians give him the same extension after 08 that Tulo just got. So far they would have injury shortened 09 and 10 with 8 years and over 100 million left to go for a player who has a lot of uncertainty as to whether he will ever be a 5+ WAR player again.

[endaround]

Yep, it isn't the money its the timing. Why now?

[Fatter than Joey]

Yep, it isn't the money its the timing. Why now?

 

Tulowitzki probably projects to have another stellar defensive season while hitting at a ~.900 OPS clip -- That's probably going to drive up Tulo's pricetag -- I see three potentials reasons to get this deal done now.

 

1.) As Tulo accumulates more solid seasons he will get more expensive.

2.) At some point in time, Tulo may not want to resign with the Rockies and try to get more $$ from another team

3.) While the economy blows today, it may be prudent to be paying 2010 rates in 2015.

 

At this point, the Rockies have seen Tulo play for 4 seasons -- Is it really that sensible to hold out to hedge bets against him falling off of a cliff at this point in his career? -- I think the Rockies want to build their franchise around a power-hitting, great fielding SS, just like the Twins are doing with Mauer.

 

As for the injuries, a couple have been fluky but so were quite a few of Sheets injuries.

 

He has been injured 3 times -- Once he lacerated his hat on a shattered bat, and another time his wrist was broken on a pitch. I think you are knowingly overstating Tulo's "injury history" for effect. I entirely agree that Sheets took a lot of heat for crazy injuries that were not his fault.

 

Fluke injuries do not preclude future injuries

 

They don't predict them either. Basically you have presented a generic argument against long-term contracts in a general sense.

 

If I'm gonna spend 100 million plus I want as much data as possible available so I don't have to rely on flimsy assumptions.

 

Waiting to accumulate more data comes at a cost as well. I think this thread does a great job fleshing out the risks involved for the Rockies in making this deal with Tulo, but isn't fair in the sense that there isn't enough discussion talking about the risk in watching Tulo accumulate more and more good seasons with no long-term deal in place.

 

Your avatar is beyond fabulous.

[endaround]

1)-Why? Maybe he gets less expensive as his body breaks down.

2)-The Rockies aren't getting a home town discount

3)-Only if salary inflation picks up again and you're paying a huge premium to save a little bit of money.

 

Tulo now has the highest average annual value of all short stops.

[Invader3K]

MLB Trade Rumors makes the amusing observation about how this new contract for Tulowitzki affects the Derek Jeter contract negotiations. Tulo is going to average just over $15 million/yr, which is what the Yankees offered Jeter.

[TooLiveBrew]

Tulo now has the highest average annual value of all short stops.

 

Given that he's the best SS in the game, that makes sense.

[sveumrules]

If Tulo stays healthy and continues to produce at an elite level the contract is a no brainer. The thing is there aren't that many players in the history of the game who can year in and year out produce at that level much less while playing the middle infield. I'll put the over/under on the number of 5+ WAR seasons Tulo produces during the length of the contract at 5. What side of the line does your money fall on?

 

I just can't help but think of Sizemore after 08. He was 26. His last four seasons had been 7.1, 5.7, 7.3 and 5.4 WAR. He had three years and an option remaining on his contract. He provided good offense and defense at a premium up the middle position. His last two years have been a mess of injuries and even with two reasonably priced years left on his deal Cleveland is hoping he can reestablish value and move him before all value is lost.

 

Now look at Tulo this year. He is 26. His last four seasons have been 6.4, 5.7, 0.9, 5.4 WAR. He had three years and an option left on his contract. He provides good offense and defense at a premium up the middle position. I'm not saying just because Sizemore imploded that Tulo will do the same, just trying to illustrate why handing out and extension to someone with four years of control remaining is a risky proposition.

[endaround]

Nomar was basically done after age 30. Yes it was due to injury but the Rockies are taking on all that risk.

 

The point about Tulo's aav is that he isn't getting paid at the market rate and not at some discount.