Brewers in front with Nationals for Carl Pavano?

[BrewCrewForever]

Bill James projection for Pavano in 2011: 12-11, 4.16 ERA, 199 IP, 5.47 K/9, 1.81 BB/9, 1.31 WHIP.

 

Those number would not be bad at all. But what will Pavano do in year 2 and 3 of this possible contract? That is my big concern.

[Invader3K]

Haudricourt with the latest: http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/111590359.html

 

Sounds like the Brewers are adamant about not going more than two years with Pavano, which is good to hear. They may end up getting outbid by the Twins, though.

[PrinceFielderx1]

If the Brewers don't land Pavano I'm very curious to see who their plan B would be? I'm wondering if the Brewers are reluctant to pull off a big trade involving their top pitching prospects and that is why they are willing to use their other resource which is cash to solve their pitching needs first. If they feel they have no other options I'm thinking they will pull off another big trade.

[Invader3K]

Maybe it would encourage them to be more open to dealing Lorenzo Cain? I don't see too many other viable trade chips without dealing some of the pitching in the minors (which I dont' want to see them do if possible).

[ListachRides]

My vitriol is that I think we need to spend that money more wisely. I understand any trade for a Garza type requires prospects be traded first and foremost, however, as a small market team, the Brewers cannot afford to lock down $10MM on a pitcher who quite frankly would open the season as the fourth guy in the rotation. I'd much rather spend that plus whatever extra millions it would cost to lock down that Garza-type acquired in a trade.

 

To simplify my point, I think that Pavano helps ensure respectability i.e. a .500 record. A Garza-type helps win the Division, Pennant, World Series.

Fair enough. I think Greinke is the only guy who dramatically improves the Brewers chances for all of those things. I think it's 50-50 whether Garza or Pavano pitches better next season. Either would be the third guy in the rotation ahead of Wolf. As others have said, Garza is preferable mainly because he is much more likely to continue to pitch well in 2012 and 2013. With either, the Brewers should be better than .500 and playoff contenders this season.

[PrinceFielderx1]

I don't like the idea of a Gomez/Dickerson platoon in CF. I would hope the brewers if they traded Cain would go out and get a Center Fielder. I'd like to see the Brewers go out and get another Left handed bat to go along with Gamel incase Gamel doesn't live up to expectations. It's important that the Brewers have a Left handed regular bat in their line-up once Prince Fielder leaves. I'm also seriously questioning whether Gamel is in the Brewers future plans.

[PrinceFielderx1]

I'd prefer Garza over Marcum for a simple reason.. He throws harder. Lower to mid 90's just like Gallardo. The Brewers need a younger power arm to compliment Gallardo. The Brewers have plenty of soft tossers now. Time to get some power arms in the front of their rotation.

[crewcrazy]

What were the WAR's for Pavano and Garza last year? And does the same site predict the WAR's of each player for this coming season yet?

In terms of WAR, there isn't very much difference between the two. Using FanGraphs' version of WAR, Pavano was at 3.7 in 2009 and 3.2 last year. Garza was at 3.2 WAR in 2009 and 1.8 last year (hurt by the 4.42 FIP he had). It's probably fair to say that they're both 3 WAR pitchers.

[Patrick425]

If it's true, I don't know how Pavano can possibly think he deserves the same contract as Lilly.

 

I would rather see the Brewers bring back Cappy than sign this guy.

[dlk9s]

I'd prefer Garza over Marcum for a simple reason.. He throws harder. Lower to mid 90's just like Gallardo. The Brewers need a younger power arm to compliment Gallardo. The Brewers have plenty of soft tossers now. Time to get some power arms in the front of their rotation.

That's a pretty good idea. Now go give Doug Melvin a call, tell him that, and then tell him how to get one at a reasonable price.

[TheCrew]

What makes you believe that if Pavano regressed, that 4.00-4.25 ERA is the worst case possibility? An ERA above 4.50 has been more the norm over his career than last season was and there is also the defense factor. Pavano doesn't get many strikeouts (only 117 in 221 innings last year) and thus the ball gets put in place a lot, not exactly a good thing given the poor defensive team that the Brewers are.

 

If Pavano was a Brewer next year, i'd put numbers of 4.00-4.25 ERA as the likely best case scenario, not worst case.

I said regress slightly - if he pitches like last year without any regression (which would be a best case scenario) I think a fair estimation would be an ERA in the mid 3's - I think a projection of 4-4.25 ERA is in the middle of best/worst case scenario. At worst (other than injury) I would expect something similar to what soup gave us in the first year or two in his contract. (High 4's I believe)

 

As for the Brewers defense - is there any site that has stats for team defense, I'd like to compare the Brewers/Twins to see how much difference is really there. I also don't think we should be avoiding pitchers based on that reasoning.

[Hate those Rodents]

I just think again that the second year of the contract is huge. Clearly the Brewers and many other teams plan on Pavano being quite good next season. If the thought is that he can be really good in year two, I don't mind giving him the third year (at 30M) even if he is stuck in injury or long relief man the third year. Two strong years is worth 30M and giving him that third year if necessary.

[JonnyLungs]

Is Kameron Loe perhaps Plan B if Pavano isn't signed? I get that impression from reading the blog entry about the Rule V pick.

[Milltownhooker]

Time to roll the dice on McCarthy & Cappy. Unless Pavano will do vested option

[Warning Track Power]

Thinking of the everyday lineup, assuming Weeks is re-signed for a few years, there wouldn't be a free agent until when? Braun is signed through '15, Hart was just extended, McGehee isn't arby-eligble, Cain/Lucroy/Escobar were all rookies last year and Gamel would be a rookie this year. We don't really need hitting high level hitting prospects right now.

I'm going to quote myself (which is rather lame) but I think this is the crux of the argument for trading prospects for a young and controllable (3 more years on the contract) pitcher like Garza. The everyday lineup theoretically is set for the next few seasons, barring a catastrophic injury and unexpected regression. Seeing that none of the players in the everday lineup is close to leaving their prime years I think it is fair to assume they will continue to perform at or near their current levels (Braun, McGehee, Weeks, Hart) and/or improve (Escobar, Lucroy, Cain).

 

Trading upper level hitting propsects and a Jeffress or a Rogers is worth the deal, assuming that is what it takes. Even if Cain is sent in the deal for Garza. A corresponding Fielder deal could then focus on bringing back a CF (Adam Jones in Baltimore?) and upper level hitting prospects.

 

EDIT: A Fielder trade to Baltimore would immediately make them my favorite AL team now that JJ is there as well.

[TheCrew]

I'd prefer Garza over Pavano - but I don't think he'll come cheaply. Outside of Gamel, what upper level hitting prospects do we have that would interest the Rays?

 

I think the only way it could work with the Rays is if they wanted to bite on the Cain/Upton swap someone proposed in here to save money.

[RockCoCougars]

I think that the difference between Garza and Pavano is huge. Garza is much better and much younger. In my view, Pavano is another borderline #3/#4 type, but if you land Garza, he is the #1 starter at this point. Gallardo was pretty unimpressive after the all star game last year, and Garza has a longer track record. I hesitate to say this because of Soup (another LCS MVP), but Garza has pitched well in some big games, so that is a bonus as well. If the Brewers fail to capitalize on the opportunity to get a young locked in Garza, and compound that mistake by signing an aging pitcher with a sketchy history and limited upside, I will bang my head against the wall.

[TheCrew]

I just don't see them being able to land Garza unless they part with 2 of the top 3 pitching prospects and gamel - I'd rather see them sign a guy to bridge the gap to the young guys.

 

After Pavano, it looks pretty bleak on the FA market for SP's.

[TooLiveBrew]

I'm so glad to see the Brewers unwilling to go beyond two years for Pavano. Lets me breathe a sigh of relief.

[endaround]

People are really overestimating Garza. He isn't close to as good as Gallardo is.

[Hate those Rodents]

I think people might be underestimating the price tag to obtain Garza also. It might cost much more than say, Cain/Gamel/Jeffress/Odorizzi. Nobody really knows....

[RockCoCougars]

People are really overestimating Garza. He isn't close to as good as Gallardo is.

I disagree. If Gallardo pitches like he did in the first half last year, yes he is better than Garza. That said, Gallardo's ERA was in the 6 range in the second half last year. Garza has been a very solid pitcher for three seasons- he's pretty young, has been durable, and he has similar stuff to Gallardo. I've been following him since he was in Beloit, and I've wanted him since the Twins had interest in Carlos Lee. The only things that give me pause about Garza are that his strikeouts were down and flyballs up a little last year. I'll take that as a blip on the radar though, because he's probably the best pitcher out there that the Brewers can realistically obtain.

[Funketown]

I think people might be underestimating the price tag to obtain Garza also. It might cost much more than say, Cain/Gamel/Jeffress/Odorizzi. Nobody really knows....

I'd be shocked if it took that much. I think Garza will probably be overpriced as well, and I agree with many here who don't think he's even near as good as Gallardo, but that price seems a bit outlandish.

 

Jumping on this late, having just gotten back from my morning class. Pavano's fastball and slider velocities have looked pretty good over the past two years (90.7, 83.2), (90.1, 83.7). It's understandable to be skeptical about Pavano as a Brewer, but really the guy should project to throw about 175 innings of 4.25 ball. I don't know about everybody else here, but I think a rotation of

 

Gallardo

Marcum

Pavano

Wolf

Narveson

 

is perhaps even better than average. If Doug can get this guy for 2/$20, I'm all over it.

[Hate those Rodents]

is perhaps even better than average. If Doug can get this guy for 2/$20, I'm all over it.

I don't think that contract even gets in done for Minnesota, which is where he'd prefer to be over Milwaukee.

[miggs721]

Trade Cain for Beachy and get it over with!!!!