Brewers in front with Nationals for Carl Pavano?

[Ennder]

At the risk of being permenently banned from brewerfan.net, I have never been a huge fan of the FIP stats.

 

The article you linked even agrees that they are better than using ERA, kind of hurts your argument here. You don't use just FIP, you use all of the tools available of which ERA is one of the weaker ones. Any pitcher who can keep his BB/9 under 2 is going to have some success. Any pitcher who allows a lot of balls in play is going to see big swings in ERA year to year due to BABIP/LOB% and needs a good defense behind him, it is just the nature of having a lot of guys on base. The fact his K/9 slipped and he is turning 35 realy scares me though. I wouldn't give this kind of guy more than 2 years.

[HiAndTight]

The hard part about Pavano was the perception in New York that he didn't work hard, he didn't really care, etc. I don't know what the truth is, but it scares you to give a guy like a big contract. You'd certainly have to do your due diligence. The odd part is that the players in Minnesota seemed to feel he was a real positive in the clubhouse.

One of the biggest things that upset the Yankees was Pavano not telling them about an injury...I believe the 2nd last year there, and trying to pitch through it. So I didn't hear about him not caring, in fact just the opposite. He was ashamed, disappointed, whatever, about not being able to take the mound for them so he tried pitching through an injury.

 

Still wouldn't spend the money for him. I'd rather we'd have signed JDLR over Pavano, but I don't question his character as much as others may.

[endaround]

At the risk of being permenently banned from brewerfan.net, I have never been a huge fan of the FIP stats.

 

The article you linked even agrees that they are better than using ERA, kind of hurts your argument here. You don't use just FIP, you use all of the tools available of which ERA is one of the weaker ones. Any pitcher who can keep his BB/9 under 2 is going to have some success. Any pitcher who allows a lot of balls in play is going to see big swings in ERA year to year due to BABIP/LOB% and needs a good defense behind him, it is just the nature of having a lot of guys on base. The fact his K/9 slipped and he is turning 35 realy scares me though. I wouldn't give this kind of guy more than 2 years.

Oh, I wouldn't either. I wanted him to a 2 year deal last season but it seemed like he didn't want to go anywhere but Minnesota.

[DHonks]

How about we go 2 years $18 million to Pavano, 1 year $4 million to Webb (with incentives and a 3 year $36 million option...I like the idea of one good year with a 3 year option for comeback guys) ?

 

Even if Webb has reduced velocity, he's always been a great groundball guy. he just needs some healthy stretches for his shoulder. Last I heard he was sent to Peterson's lab for diagnostics and they wanted him to work on changing his arm slot

[trwi7]

I wouldn't give this kind of guy more than 2 years.

That's two more years than I'd give him.

 

[RockCoCougars]

I'd give Webb a go, but it would have to be pretty cheap, because with all his setbacks I'm not convinced that he'll be doing much pitching in 2011. I'd prefer to go with a guy like Justin Duchscherer or Rich Harden as the high risk, high upside project for a one year deal. That said, if Melvin is going to get a guy like this, he better get off his hands because guys like Bedard and Harang have already been snapped up.

[TooLiveBrew]

Jon Heyman tweets "Pavano has aggressive nationals, plus twins and 2 others in mix. Could happen this week"

 

I'm hoping that the Brewers aren't one of those two other teams. I'll root for the Nats to overspend twice early in this offseason.

[Beast Light]

Pavano seemingly has every possible red flag that there is.

 

Extensive injury history: Check

Seems to perform abnormally well in contract years: Check

Old and looking for last contract: Check

 

Does a 37 year old Carl Pavano at $11MM sound good for the 2013 season? I sure don't think so. Hopefully the Brewers will pass.

[BREWCREW5]

couldnt agree more Beast Light.

 

The contract years thing is killing me. He is awesome in those years, average, terrible or injured in all the others it seems.

[dpapo]

It appears as though the Nationals are offering Cliff Lee a 7 year contract, according to Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News. If that is indeed the case the Nationals may be the favorites to sign him as they may be the only team willing to offer him 7 years.

If the Nationals sign Lee, then it probably increases the chances of the Brewers signing Pavano. Melvin also didn't deny that the Brewers were interested in signing Pavano when asked about it.

 

Edit: Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post, citing sources from the Nationals saying there is zero chance the Nationals will offer Lee a 7 year deal, so the Nationals are still in the hunt for Pavano. Wonder if Pavano will wait till Lee signs before signing with a team.

[sveumrules]

The last offseason the market was this overboard we ended up with Suppan and his ridiculous deal. Hopefully Doug can find that other SP via a trade of McGehee instead of getting in on Pavano or any of these other old FAs who are getting too many years and too much money to chew frames.

[TheCrew]

I'd be ok if it was a 2 year deal with an option on the 3rd year with a relatively cheap buyout - He proved last year that he can still be effective and dominant in stretches, I think the 'only pitches well in contract years' thing is overblown a bit.

 

Any commitment over 2 years and I'd be extremely disappointed.

[BREWCREW5]

I'd be ok if it was a 2 year deal with an option on the 3rd year with a relatively cheap buyout - He proved last year that he can still be effective and dominant in stretches, I think the 'only pitches well in contract years' thing is overblown a bit.

 

Any commitment over 2 years and I'd be extremely disappointed.

his two best years were contract years...

[TooLiveBrew]

The Brewers were one of the teams to meet in person Tuesday with free agent right-hander Carl Pavano, general manager Doug Melvin said.

 

The Twins are pushing to sign the 34-year-old, according to multiple reports, and the Nationals have also been linked. Pavano attended the Winter Meetings in person to join agent Tom O'Connell for meetings with clubs.

 

The Brewers are looking at the free agent market with a cautious eye and it remains to be seen whether the club gets deeper into talks with Pavano.

...

 

When Melvin was asked Monday about the Brewers' potential interest, he declined to say.

 

"I'd rather not get into that," Melvin said. "I'll leave that up to the rumors. When you get down to the end, you're talking about certain people, and you don't want to tip your hand about who you're talking to."

McCalvy

[Warning Track Power]

I'll scream if Pavano is signed. From the reports, we'd have to sign him to a Suppan-esque deal. Not only is he 3 years older than Suppan was when we signed him; he has nowhere near the track record of Suppan (never thought I'd say that)...Suppan was coming off 4.19 or less ERAs in the previous 4 seasons before we signed him. Pavano has done that 3 times TOTAL in his career (2000, 2004, 2010) and as has been mentioned previously, 2004 and 2010 were contract years. Surprise surprise.

 

I'm a Melvin supporter and even I agree he should be fired on the spot for even considering this.

[NievesNoNO]

Why, why, why... This would definitely offset my happiness from the Marcum trade. Pleeessseee let him sign with the Twins. The worst part about a Pavano signing would be it probably indicates we're done trying to acquire another legit pitcher.

[yoshii8]

I would be ok w/ a Pavano signing, I just hope it's not more than 2 years. It would be a big risk at his age, but he's been a pretty good pitcher the last 2 seasons, and was probably the Twins best pitcher last year. I think a rotation of Gallardo, Marcum, Pavano, Wolf and Narveson would be enough to compete next year.

[Spidey]

I'll scream if Pavano is signed. From the reports, we'd have to sign him to a Suppan-esque deal. Not only is he 3 years older than Suppan was when we signed him; he has nowhere near the track record of Suppan (never thought I'd say that)...Suppan was coming off 4.19 or less ERAs in the previous 4 seasons before we signed him. Pavano has done that 3 times TOTAL in his career (2000, 2004, 2010) and as has been mentioned previously, 2004 and 2010 were contract years. Surprise surprise.

 

I'm a Melvin supporter and even I agree he should be fired on the spot for even considering this.

I have to agree (Except for the Melvin firing just yet). Just when I thought the Brewers would be able to breathe and frolic in the sun without an albatross hanging around their neck.... Please say it ain't so Doug!

[endaround]

Pavano is a much better pitcher than Suppan ever was. Suppan was both aging and bad.

[splitterpfj]

If the Brewers sign Pavano, (my money's on the Twins), the Brewers will have a rotation that gives them a chance to make the playoffs in 2011, and they will have kept their offfense intact.

 

For 2011, I want Carl Pavano...beyond that, it's a big risk.

[Hate those Rodents]

I guess you have to weigh overpaying Pavano and losing your second round pick vs. overpaying for Garza and losing say Odorizzi, Gamel, Cain, and Jeffress. I would rather work out a Garza deal that doesn't purge our system too badly. If that can't be done.....I just don't know, but can't sign off on liking a Pavano addition at this point yet of the off season.

[markedman5]

https://twitter.com/Ken_R...status/12631206831071232

[Warning Track Power]

Pavano is a much better pitcher than Suppan ever was. Suppan was both aging and bad.

Just out of curiosity, how does Pavano's numbers over his career (save for last season) make you think he is "much better" than Suppan?

 

 

[trwi7]

I still don't think we get to the playoffs with Pavano. Major pass on him.

[Beast Light]

I'll scream if Pavano is signed. From the reports, we'd have to sign him to a Suppan-esque deal. Not only is he 3 years older than Suppan was when we signed him; he has nowhere near the track record of Suppan (never thought I'd say that)...Suppan was coming off 4.19 or less ERAs in the previous 4 seasons before we signed him. Pavano has done that 3 times TOTAL in his career (2000, 2004, 2010) and as has been mentioned previously, 2004 and 2010 were contract years. Surprise surprise.

 

I'm a Melvin supporter and even I agree he should be fired on the spot for even considering this.

I completely agree. If the Brewers sign Pavano, then Melvin clearly hasn't learned his lesson from the Suppan signing. There is no way that I am willing to believe that his best two seasons occurring in contract years is a mere coincidence.

 

The Yankees signed Pavano to a 4 year contract and this is what they got out of it: 26 appearances, a 9-8 record, 5.00 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP. In my mind, there is not a better example of someone who performs abnormally well in contract years in all of baseball, although Kevin Millwood is pretty close. Top it all off with his age (35 to start the 2011 season) and there is no way a team like the Brewers should even be considering this guy.

 

The fact that some people think this could be a good idea has me completely puzzled.