Brewers in front with Nationals for Carl Pavano?

[Beast Light]

I think signing Pavano is a terrible idea in fact I think it is by far the worst potential signing that I could imagine. Is it just a coincidence that his best two seasons have both come in contract years? Since he is 35 years old and was pretty much injury riddled from 2005-08 (4 seasons), I don't want the Brewers to be the team to find out.

 

He if can be signed for next to nothing, thats one thing. If not, he's simply not the guy that we want to be pinning our hopes of a pitching turnaround on. If Melvin spends significant money on Pavano, I will have lost all faith with him.

[Beast Light]

Pavano isn't Suppan. Here is his FIP that past 2 years: 4.00, 4.02. James projections has his FIP at 4.22 next year.

While that may be, at some point you have to realize that baseball players are people, just like us. Would you find yourself working harder if you knew there was a potential for a large pay increase or bonus? Of course you would, its human nature.

 

Ask Yankee fans what they think of this guy. Aside from what his statistics have shown over the past two years, the sniff test say that he has miraculously turned in the best two seasons of his career in contract years. Add in the fact his is a 35 year old pitcher carrying a serious injury history and I would be very, very cautious with this guy.

 

I just put together some quick stats on him:

 

Here are his numbers without his contract years in FLA and MIN:

YEAR	TEAM	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	W	L	WHIP	ERA
1998	Mon	24	23	134.7	130	70	63	18	43	83	6	9	1.28	4.21
1999	Mon	19	18	104.0	117	66	65	8	35	70	6	8	1.46	5.63
2000	Mon	15	15	97.0	89	40	33	8	34	64	8	4	1.27	3.06
2001	Mon	8	8	42.7	59	33	30	7	16	36	1	6	1.76	6.33
2002	Mon	15	14	74.3	98	55	52	14	31	51	3	8	1.74	6.30
2002	Fla	22	8	61.7	76	33	26	5	14	41	3	2	1.46	3.80
2003	Fla	33	32	201.0	204	99	96	19	49	133	12	13	1.26	4.30
2005	NYY	17	17	100.0	129	66	53	17	18	56	4	6	1.47	4.77
2007	NYY	2	2	11.3	12	7	6	1	2	4	1	0	1.24	4.77
2008	NYY	7	7	34.3	41	23	22	5	10	15	4	2	1.49	5.77
2009	Cle	21	21	125.7	150	80	75	19	23	88	9	8	1.38	5.37
2009	Min	12	12	73.7	85	39	38	7	16	59	5	4	1.37	4.64
	Total	195	177	1060.3	1190	611	559	128	291	700	62	70	1.40	4.74

Here are his contract years in FLA and MIN:

YEAR	TEAM	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	W	L	WHIP	ERA
2004	Fla	31	31	222.3	212	80	74	16	49	139	18	8	1.17	3.00
2010	Min	32	32	221.0	227	95	92	24	37	117	17	11	1.19	3.75
	Total	63	63	443.3	439	175	166	40	86	256	35	19	1.18	3.37

 

Edit: This is cool, I never knew you could just paste excel tables in here!

[RockCoCougars]

I think signing Pavano is a terrible idea in fact I think it is by far the worst potential signing that I could imagine. Is it just a coincidence that his best two seasons have both come in contract years? Since he is 35 years old and was pretty much injury riddled from 2005-08 (4 seasons), I don't want the Brewers to be the team to find out.

 

He if can be signed for next to nothing, thats one thing. If not, he's simply not the guy that we want to be pinning our hopes of a pitching turnaround on. If Melvin spends significant money on Pavano, I will have lost all faith with him.

Agreed. Melvin had his chance on getting Pavano (when he was fairly cheap) for almost nothing from Cleveland at the trading deadline in '09. He probably could have retained him for pretty cheap this season. Instead, he chose to pursue Vargas and Weathers. Getting Pavano made complete sense then, it makes absolutely no sense now.

 

Anyone that wastes money on Pavano on an uptick risks looking very very foolish. I read that people in the Yankees organization are still angry about how he conducted himself (namely 'rehabbed') during his time there. I'm hoping the fact that Attanasio was a Yankees fan causes him to veto this.

[PrinceEatMeat]

I've got very mixed feelings about this.

I don't. This smells like a Suppan deal to me. He's fine as a 4 or 5 (at a lot less money and fewer years than he'll actually command), but if you're hoping for more than that then I fear you'll be disappointed

The reason I have mixed feelings is because I don't know how long, or for how much, the contract will be for.

[trwi7]

Pavano isn't Suppan. Here is his FIP that past 2 years: 4.00, 4.02. James projections has his FIP at 4.22 next year.

While that may be, at some point you have to realize that baseball players are people, just like us. Would you find yourself working harder if you knew there was a potential for a large pay increase or bonus? Of course you would, its human nature.

 

Ask Yankee fans what they think of this guy. Aside from what his statistics have shown over the past two years, the sniff test say that he has miraculously turned in the best two seasons of his career in contract years. Add in the fact his is a 35 year old pitcher carrying a serious injury history and I would be very, very cautious with this guy.

 

I just put together some quick stats on him:

 

Here are his numbers without his contract years in FLA and MIN:

YEAR	TEAM	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	W	L	WHIP	ERA
1998	Mon	24	23	134.7	130	70	63	18	43	83	6	9	1.28	4.21
1999	Mon	19	18	104.0	117	66	65	8	35	70	6	8	1.46	5.63
2000	Mon	15	15	97.0	89	40	33	8	34	64	8	4	1.27	3.06
2001	Mon	8	8	42.7	59	33	30	7	16	36	1	6	1.76	6.33
2002	Mon	15	14	74.3	98	55	52	14	31	51	3	8	1.74	6.30
2002	Fla	22	8	61.7	76	33	26	5	14	41	3	2	1.46	3.80
2003	Fla	33	32	201.0	204	99	96	19	49	133	12	13	1.26	4.30
2005	NYY	17	17	100.0	129	66	53	17	18	56	4	6	1.47	4.77
2007	NYY	2	2	11.3	12	7	6	1	2	4	1	0	1.24	4.77
2008	NYY	7	7	34.3	41	23	22	5	10	15	4	2	1.49	5.77
2009	Cle	21	21	125.7	150	80	75	19	23	88	9	8	1.38	5.37
2009	Min	12	12	73.7	85	39	38	7	16	59	5	4	1.37	4.64
	Total	195	177	1060.3	1190	611	559	128	291	700	62	70	1.40	4.74

Here are his contract years in FLA and MIN:

YEAR	TEAM	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	W	L	WHIP	ERA
2004	Fla	31	31	222.3	212	80	74	16	49	139	18	8	1.17	3.00
2010	Min	32	32	221.0	227	95	92	24	37	117	17	11	1.19	3.75
	Total	63	63	443.3	439	175	166	40	86	256	35	19	1.18	3.37

 

Edit: This is cool, I never knew you could just paste excel tables in here!

 

To be fair, his 2009 season was a contract year too.

[PilprinBuddha]

I like Pavano....but he will be signed for a contract longer than we should offer.

[JohnBriggs12]

Pavano is unlike some other Brewer FA pitchers, because when he's been healthy, he's a true innings eater. He gets outs fairly quickly. Contrast that with human rain delay Davis.

 

Even in Suppan's peak years with the Cardinals, he was basically a 6 inning pitcher. You also have to like that his numbers last year were in the AL.

 

That being said, I agree with the sentiment that you don't sign a guy like that off one of his best seasons because it's simply not good value. Could he be a solid 3-4 type starter?

Sure, but Brewers shouldn't pay $10-12 million for that spot. For that kind of money, he'd have to repeat his 2010 season which is unlikely.

 

A better option would be Brad Penny. who's not dissimilar to Pavano, but who's pricetag will reflect missing a large chunk of 2010.

[splitterpfj]

Would Carl Pavano improve the Brewers' pitching? Yes, of course he would.

 

Would you give him a contract like Ted Lilly got? 3 years/ 33 million?

 

That's what he's shooting for.

[Patrick425]

I believe he made $7,000,000 last year and so it would not surprise me that he's looking for at least $10mil/yr considering the year he had. Such is the nature of sports contracts. Never mind that other than last year I only had 3 other season's in my 12 year career that I pitched 200+ innings and that my stats in most years, other than last year and 2004, were really not very impressive at all. Oh, and never mind that I'll be 35 on Jan 8th. Just look at last year and give me a big raise.

 

I'm sure some team will do just that. I wish I could completely suck at work, have a guaranteed paycheck, and then have one good year and get a huge raise.

 

I'll go a step further than comparing Pavano to Suppan, I'll compare him to Hammonds. I think it would be that big of a mistake. Not quite the extensive injury history, but he also was not the healthiest pitcher with the Yankees and as I mentioned he does not have an extensive history of being an "innings eater" (even though I hate that term). His age and history do not appeal to me at all and I don't think he improves the Brewers pitching picture like splitterpfj suggests.

[dadofandrew]

No doubt he improves the staff for '11, and probably '12, though as with all SP's, he's one pitch away from surgery, perhaps moreso because of his age.

 

As with all long-term deals, there is risk. The irony I see is, many suggest Doug "has to take a risk" because no FA SP will come to MIL, but whether it's giving a guy like Pavano an extra year, DLR too much money (like most would say COL did), or signing a guy like Webb or a similar SP coming off an injury (who may be undervalued if he returns to health, or overpaid if he does not), no one wants to say this particular risk is probably the best one.

 

Doug only gets to make one choice, and to be honest, all you can do is play the odds. Using poker terms, some times your opponent goes all-in with a gutshot straight draw, you make the proper call, but that 6 that comes on the river still makes you a loser. Whether or not Pavano is a key component to being a contender, or a guy who eats up payroll to keep from getting the key component is an unknown, and even if you play the percentages properly, you could easily end up being incorrect.

 

This is the life of a small market GM. Theo can afford to miss on a $10M guy annually. Cashman can miss on a couple. Doug cannot.

[RockCoCougars]

Pavano isn't worth taking a risk on. Like Suppan, he's old, has been largely mediocre, and is coming off a career season. Unlike Suppan the guy has not been durable- especially when under a long term deal (coincidence or not).

 

Webb, Bedard or Harden are examples of 'risks' that may be worth taking. They would most certainly cost less than Pavano, and as such, the risk-reward ratio would be better.

[dadofandrew]

Harden has been both ineffective and injury-prone. He would be cheaper, but that's because he last was good in 2008 and last threw 150 innings in...2004. Bedard has been solid when healthy, but did not throw a pitch last year, and has not pitched 84 or more frames since 2007. Webb has pitched one game since 2008.

 

Any money you give any of those three is very likely to be 100% wasted...not get a single thing out of it. While they all will likely sign for one season, they are all likely to be complete wastes of $4M, 5M, or 7M, whatever they get. Sheets got $10M last season for example, but did pitch somewhat decently, though not for the whole season.

 

Those guys are good risks for the Mets, Red Sox, Angels, or any team that gets big market TV money. If they miss on $5M, they write it off as a gamble worth taking. For doug, it's a huge chunk of his payroll.

[RockCoCougars]

Harden has been both ineffective and injury-prone. He would be cheaper, but that's because he last was good in 2008 and last threw 150 innings in...2004. Bedard has been solid when healthy, but did not throw a pitch last year, and has not pitched 84 or more frames since 2007. Webb has pitched one game since 2008.

 

Any money you give any of those three is very likely to be 100% wasted...not get a single thing out of it. While they all will likely sign for one season, they are all likely to be complete wastes of $4M, 5M, or 7M, whatever they get. Sheets got $10M last season for example, but did pitch somewhat decently, though not for the whole season.

 

Those guys are good risks for the Mets, Red Sox, Angels, or any team that gets big market TV money. If they miss on $5M, they write it off as a gamble worth taking. For doug, it's a huge chunk of his payroll.

I understand your line of thought here, but in my view Pavano has limited upside at this point in his career- and he's older and injury prone. It almost certainly will take a multi-year deal to get him, and I think that's a huge risk. I'd rather take a chance on one of the guys that I mentioned for an incentive laden one year 'make good' type deal. Less upfront cost, and you might catch lightning in a bottle. Heck, Pavano himself was in the same boat less than two years ago, the Indians got him for $1.5 million plus incentives.

[MNBrew]

Injury prone? In his Yankees days, without question. Between Cleveland & MN the past 2 years, not at all.

 

Pavano didn't miss a start this year or last -- 33 starts both years, and put up these 2010 numbers: 7 CGs, 2 SHOs, & 220+ IP, 17-11 record, 3.75 ERA, 3.2 to 1 K:BB ratio.

 

I'd be careful of the contract I'd give him, but if he's the best that can be had and he's open to coming here, he's no worse than the #3 or #4 type we need. Of course, we could still really use that #1 or #2 as well.

[TooLiveBrew]

Joe Pawlikowski puts the concerns about Pavano into some very convincing perspective at FanGraphs:

In 2010 Pavano saw his strikeout rate dip quite a bit. He’d never been a strikeout pitcher, but 4.76 K/9 fell considerably below his career average. He did see a spike in his groundball rate, which suggests he adapted a bit, but that low strikeout rate is certainly concerning. There are only 86 player seasons since 1970 wherein a pitcher has struck out fewer than 5 per nine and has pitched more than 150 innings in his age 35 through 37 seasons. Only about half had a league average or better ERA.

 

Still, there’s a good chance Pavano turns in another quality season next year, as both his xFIP, 4.01, and his SIERA, 4.15, point to some sustainability. But once pitchers, especially ones with an injury history as deep as Pavano’s, hit that age-35 mark, the situation becomes a bit murkier. If it takes a two-year commitment to land Pavano, that seems reasonable. But to add that third year, effectively giving a team a low-strikeout 37-year-old, is a bit too much. There’s a good chance it will become a freebie year, in which the team receives little to no production, meaning they’re paying more for those first two years.

 

This is why it makes sense to have a high-buyout third year option, rather than a vesting one. Should Pavano become ineffective during his second year, a team can mitigate the risk by handing him a buyout rather than having him come back for the third year. A two-year, $21 million contract, with each of the two years paid at $9 million and a $3 million buyout of a $9 million option, might help a team save money and mitigate risk. The problem, of course, comes when a desperate team is ready to add that third guaranteed year. Given what we’ve seen so far this winter, I would think that likely.

Please tell me I'm being too pessimistic in thinking those last two lines might describe the Brewers to a T. If Doug Melvin *truly* has job security, like Mark Attanasio claimed late last season, signing Pavano for three years is a deal he avoids at all costs.

[Patrick425]

dadofandrew[/b]]No doubt he improves the staff for '11, and probably '12, though as with all SP's, he's one pitch away from surgery, perhaps moreso because of his age.

I don't understand how you can say "No doubt"? Based on what...last year? He could also pitch like he did in 2008 or 2009 or one of his several other crappy years.

 

Injury prone? In his Yankees days, without question. Between Cleveland & MN the past 2 years, not at all.

Perhaps "injury prone" is a little strong. I emphaize little. He pitched a total of 145.67 innings from 2005 through 2008. He entirely missed 2006. Yes, he has been healthy for the last 2 years. I'm not sure that's enough to just ignore the 4 years prior to that.

 

I'm not sure why any team would want this guy, regardless of the contract. I would think that there would be some AAA pitcher that could do the same thing for much less.

[endaround]

He pitched great in 2009.

[Patrick425]

He pitched great in 2009.

He did? He had a 5.1 ERA.

 

 

[endaround]

He had an FIP of 4.00 and an xFIP of 3.96. His ERA was due to a high BABIP and a low strand rate which are purely random. He basically pitched the same in 2009 and 2010, in 2009 his ERA was really unlucky and in 2010 it was somewhat lucky.

[Patrick425]

He had an FIP of 4.00 and an xFIP of 3.96. His ERA was due to a high BABIP and a low strand rate which are purely random. He basically pitched the same in 2009 and 2010, in 2009 his ERA was really unlucky and in 2010 it was somewhat lucky.

At the risk of being permenently banned from brewerfan.net, I have never been a huge fan of the FIP stats. They are based on the premise that pitchers do not have control of balls that are hit in play. How is a hard hit ball in the gap any different than a ball that is elevated and clears the fence? Hard hit balls that don't clear the fence often fall in for singles, doubles, and triples. Balls that are hit hard are at least partially due to the pitch that was made (of which the pitcher has control). So, if a pitcher gets battered around for 5 or 6 runs but doesn't give up any HRs or Walks, it's considered a good outing? That does not make a whole lot of sense to me.

 

It has been shown that good pitchers do have control over balls in play.

 

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/printarticle/dips-again/

 

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/using-fip-to-evaluate-pitchers-i-wouldnt/

[reillymcshane]

The hard part about Pavano was the perception in New York that he didn't work hard, he didn't really care, etc. I don't know what the truth is, but it scares you to give a guy like a big contract. You'd certainly have to do your due diligence. The odd part is that the players in Minnesota seemed to feel he was a real positive in the clubhouse.

[dadofandrew]

He just was not suited for the media in NY, according to most. In MIL, with Tony and Tom asking the "tough" questions, I think he'd be fine.

[splitterpfj]

DeLaRosa got 32 million for three years, Lilly got 33 million for three years, and now the Reds have extended Arroyo...35 million for three years.

 

It's not real hard to see where Pavano is going to come in.

[dadofandrew]

DLR was given $10M per based pretty much on short-term success and great LH stuff that has never led to good numbers...but he has the stuff.

[RockCoCougars]

If Melvin gives this guy 3/30 he should be fired on the spot. I'd even be leary of a one year deal for him. Like the Gagne deal, those can look pretty bad as well.

 

I think that the top priority should be to trade for Garza or Grienke (pipe dream or not, make a run). I'd resign Cappy, and then start trolling to see if Harden, Webb, Duchscherer, or even a guy like Ian Snell would be amenable to a make good one year incentive heavy deal.